2021-22 Preview: ACC
Can anybody catch Coach K in his swan song season, or are the Blue Devils just too talented?
The college basketball season is around the corner and starting before you know it. At this point, rosters are pretty well set, the transfer window is done and teams know who their top options will be. Through our years of scouting and watching far too many college games and clips, and the last four years as a college coach on the recruiting trail, we’ve seen so many of these players come up through the youth and AAU ranks.
Put the NBA Draft aside: what college basketball teams are poised for a big year? We go through the best conferences in America one by one to break down exactly what lies ahead in the 2021-22 season.
Today’s stop is with the ACC, a perennial high-power conference that has, for better or for worse, separated into two tiers over the last half-decade. The five teams atop the league — Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Louisville and Florida State — and everyone else. Once in a blue moon, a team from the outside will knock down the doors and plow their way in, or a COVID year will shake up the standings.
Can Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech continue their upward swing into the top tier? Are Syracuse and Notre Dame ready to make a leap as perennial powers?
Predictions:
15. Boston College Eagles
14. Clemson Tigers
13. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
12. Pittsburgh Panthers
11. Miami Hurricanes
10. Virginia Tech Hokies
9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
7. Syracuse Orange
6. NC State Wolfpack
5. Louisville Cardinals
4. Virginia Cavaliers
3. Florida State Seminoles
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
1. Duke Blue Devils
Boston College Eagles
Head coach: Earl Grant
The Eagles aren’t a train wreck, and the bottom of the ACC isn’t a barren wasteland in the way other conference have been. But the Eagles have been a few pieces short for several years. Hopefully Earl Grant can change that, but it might take time. The new coach from Charleston will have a boisterous backcourt his first year at the helm, with Charleston transfer Brevin Galloway (a 6’2” brick house), Makai Ashton-Langford (a really underrated combo guard) and 6’5” DeMarr Langford (one of the names to know long-term in the ACC).
Now the bad news: the Eagles frontcourt isn’t young and isn’t talented. This year should be about the long-term development of their backcourt and freshman Gianni Thompson, who has a shot to be pretty solid. Look, Grant is a good hire who will prioritize defense and not get caught up in the rat race of the ACC. He’ll ultimately be judged on whether he can build a team that has an identity and recruit in the talent-rich New England prep school world to bring BC back up to respectable stature.
Clemson Tigers
Head coach: Brown Brownell
The departure of do-it-all forward Aamir Simms will cost the Tigers dearly, but they’ll still play the toughest brand of basketball. Brownell’s teams pull off one or two upsets each year they have no business winning. From an institutional standpoint, it’s exactly what Clemson needs: a coach who doesn’t commit recruiting violations (which would draw attention to their crown jewel football program) and still manages to win enough games to keep the boosters happy.
PJ Hall will have to play the Simms role, and he’s not shown enough to give confidence he’ll succeed there. The 6’10” sophomore only logged ten minutes a game last year, a disappointment on many fronts. The Tigers will be super small (but tough) around him, and junior Nick Honor is a competitor in the backcourt who organizes the show. Two transfers in Naz Bohannon (Youngstown State) and David Collins (USF) will need to make immediate contributions, and I’m not sold either are ACC-caliber players. This is the year I’d expect the Tigers to take a major step back.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Head coach: Steve Forbes
We’re big Steve Forbes fans here. He’s building his roster at Wake in an interesting way, relying a lot on transfers. Isaiah Mucius (a great kid who I recruited in the prep school world) has blossomed into a great swing forward, and senior Daivien Williamson is a pretty solid fit as a former transfer from East Tennessee. Forbes brought in A TON of size on the portal this year: 6’5” Alondes Williams (Oklahoma), 7’0” Dallas Walton (Colorado State), 6’9” Jake LaRavia (Indiana State), and 6’10” Khadim Sy (Ole Miss).
The size is a good indicator of the direction Forbes is moving with this team, but they’re still devoid of guard play that’s passable in the ACC (sorry Carter Whitt, whose father I coached against years ago). If 6’8” forward Tariq Ingraham can play the 3 and score it consistently, the Demon Deacs might be able to cobble together enough offense to avoid the basement of the league.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Head coach: Jeff Capel
It’s been a long few years in Pittsburgh. Capel’s personality hasn’t been for everyone, and the recruiting trail has been dry leading to Pitt — at least in a way that yields results. They’re also going to struggle to score the ball this year… while Xavier Johnson is a tough loss offensively, the Panthers might be better with a more balanced attack long-term.
Nike Sibande and Femi Odukale are solid in the backcourt, and Sibande is a legitimate ACC-caliber athlete. Sophomores William Jeffress and John Hugley struggled a bit as freshmen but are the keys to the future; Jeffress has major offensive upside while Hugley is respectable in the middle. If all four take leaps forward, the Panthers will be solid. The Panthers need shooting badly, and Capel needs to develop his young guys without pissing off everyone and causing another mass exodus on the transfer portal. He’s already skating on thin ice.
Miami Hurricanes
Head coach: Jim Larranaga
A tier above the teams mentioned earlier, Miami lost a fair amount on the transfer portal and to graduation in Earl Timberlake, Nysier Brooks, Chris Lykes and more. Somehow, the Hurricanes have weathered the storm of injuries, exodus and some internal strife on the coaching ranks. Isaiah Wong leads the attack this year and is a massively athletic scorer (17.1 PPG) with an NBA future. Kam McGusty and DePaul transfer Charlie Moore give Larranaga two other scorers to depend on, and the return of Harlond Beverly makes their backcourt the strength of this team.
The Hurricanes will really struggle on the interior. 6’9” 4-man Anthony Walker is respectable and plays an athletic brand of ball, but everyone else up front is recovering from injury or completely unproven. The Hurricanes will push .500 in-league and can go above that mark if Wong takes another step as a scorer and distributor. The tourney feels a little out of reach in a league with plenty of opponents that have stacked frontcourts.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Head coach: Mike Young
Seeing the Hokies this low may be a surprise to some. In Young’s early VT tenure he’s established himself as an overachiever, a really good tactician and won games against teams Tech doesn’t typically beat. Losses of Cartier Diarra, Tyrece Radford and Wabissa Bede are going to sting more than most people believe.
The Hokies still have Keve Aluma, a great stretch big who should push for second-team All-ACC. Aluma (15.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.3 blocks) is super consistent and the ideal threat within Young’s high-octane offense. But this team is super small, likely to start three players 6’3” or smaller. They’ll rely on skill and pace, just as they have the first two years. Storm Murphy (Wofford transfer), Hunter Cattoor and Naheim Alleyne are all great shooters, but it’s hard for me to trust a team without a chief threat to attack the rim. They’ll live by the three and die by the three — but I’m not of the opinion there’s enough talent here to be a tournament team once again.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Head coach: Josh Pastner
With aggressive defenses, zones switching up on a possession-by-possession basis and a pretty solid guard rotation. Moses Wright and Jose Alvarado are tough identity losses; Alvarado was their engine and the most passionate player on the floor at all times, while Wright was the perfect small-ball 5 for their Princeton offense.
6’5” lead guard Michael Devoe is back to lead the show and prove that last season’s surge wasn’t a fluke. 6’7” wing Jordan Usher comes back as well, so the Jackets will have at least two experienced scorers to handle the load. 5’10'“ point guard Bubba Parham will take on the Alvarado role, junior Kyle Sturdivant is talented enough to break through if he pieces things together and Deivon Smith is an interesting transfer from Mississippi State.
There are two X-factors for Pastner’s team this year: fab freshman Dallan Coleman and who slots in at the 5 as a playmaker. Coleman is talented enough to make an instant impact in the ACC. If Coleman (or freshman Miles Kelly) gives consistent minutes in year one, the Yellow Jackets will be even more stacked on the perimeter than last year. But delivering the ball to those guards in the Princeton-esque offense relies heavily on a facilitating 5-man. 6’7” forward Khalid Moore is the leading candidate, but leaves the Jackets small and in need once again of a pressuring zone to win games.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Head coach: Mike Brey
Having gone to a couple of Brey’s practices in the past, I’ve never seen a head coach less interested in defense. Brey is all about the O baby, and it’s reflected in the players he recruits. There’s a great deal of offensive talent on this squad, held back by the lack of interest anyone in South Bend has in digging in to get a stop.
This is a team that returns everyone except Juwan Durham, who turned in a very solid year in 2021. Prentiss Hubb (14.6 points, 5.8 assists) could be the league’s best point guard, while Dane Goodwin (11.8 points) and Cormac Ryan (9.9 points) should average double-figures next to him. Sniper Nate Laszewski (13.3 points) is an elite stretch-4 at the college level. The Irish will certainly stretch out plenty of opponents on the perimeter.
Wings Matt Wertz and Robby Carmody are solid scorers, and this is an upperclassman-laden team. They’ll need to improve on defense to move up the standings. If they do, this will be a dark horse for an at-large berth. Betting on a Brey-coached team to win on defense, even with a new scheme on the way, isn’t a gamble I’m willing to make.
Syracuse Orange
Head coach: Jim Boeheim
For decades, Boeheim has built his reputation on length and athleticism along the backline, that 2-3 zone which they’re unwavering in and cobbling together enough offensive identity to spark a run late in the year. This year’s group will have one distinct advantage from the jump: they’ve got gunners. Both of Boeheim’s sons, Jimmy and Buddy, are snipers with deep range. Buddy (38.3% on 8 attempts) was great in the Orange’s NCAA run, while Jimmy (transfer from Cornell) was never shy about letting ‘em fly with the Big Red.
The Orange lost a great deal from last year in terms of talent: Kadary Richmond, Quincy Guerrier, Alan Griffin and Marek Dolezaj are all some of their most talented guys. I’m eager to see freshman Benny Williams from IMG. The 6’9” athlete is an ideal fit within the confines of the zone and has been a late-bloomer throughout his recruitment. Villanova transfer Cole Swider provides floor spacing from the frontcourt and junior point guard Joseph Girard is a steady floor general. This will be a different iteration of the Orange, with much more offensive firepower, albeit a step-down athletically. I’m curious to see how that meshes with a defense reliant on length and individual rebounding, as they’ve never leaned into the shooting thing this much. It’s the best offensive team Boeheim has coached since they were #1 in the country back in 2013.
NC State Wolfpack
Head coach: Kevin Keatts
Since arriving in Raleigh, Keatts has needed to reinvent himself. He’s changed up his defensive pressure, the speed of his offense and catered to the group he has. Keatts needs to figure that out as he enters year five. He’s a successful 79-47, but only one NCAA Tourney appearance is the stat that matters. This year’s Wolfpack might be the most talented one yet, even with DJ Funderburk’s departure. They have a menacing interior presence in Manny Bates (2.7 blocks per game) who should lead the league in swats and make an All-ACC team. Sophomore point guard Cam Hayes is a fantastic scorer, underrated defender and the perfect guy for the college game. Virginia transfer Casey Morsell should feel freed from the shackles of Tony Bennett’s offense and be ready to lead this group in scoring. Jericole Hellems, who averaged 13 and 5 a year ago, might have something to say about that.
Beyond that talented foursome, there’s not much experience. Redshirt senior Thomas Allen is a confident 6’1” guard, but everyone else is a newcomer or underclassman. Providence transfer Greg Gantt, if he can establish himself as the fifth starter, would push Allen to the bench in a scoring role and allow the Wolfpack to play a balanced style. Freshman big Ernest Ross is the heir apparent on this roster, the best recruit of the Keatts era who is a high-flier that can play the 4.
I’m putting a lot of eggs in the Keatts basket this year. They’ve got a really balanced group with interior and perimeter skill, an easy way to fit it all together and finally a dynamic scorer in Morsell. Don’t sleep on a Wolfpack team that truly hasn’t been bad in Keatts’ tenure.
Louisville Cardinals
Head coach: Chris Mack
Now we’re reaching the upper echelon of ACC play. All five teams hereon up should finish the season in the top-25, and the Cards might have the widest variance of outcomes within that group. They’ve lost their entire backcourt with Carlik Jones and David Johnson departing for professional opportunities, but return everyone up front and plug in the holes with some old transfers. Noah Locke (10.6 PPG at Florida) and Jarrod West (12.5 points, 6.0 assists at USF) should start, while Mason Faulkner (16.9 points at Western Carolina) is the wild card coming off ankle surgery. Elbert Davis, a JUCO transfer, should also vie for minutes.
If those three can play at a high level, the Cardinals can knock on the door of the top ten. Samuell Williamson is a double-double waiting to happen on the wings and an explosive athlete, big man Malik Williams is back down low, sophomore Jae’Lyn Withers can take another step forward in his development and Miami transfer Matt Cross provides much-needed frontcourt shooting. This Cardinals team can get really hot from deep, and while they don’t have the same top-end talent they’ve had in years past, their depth is apparent and there are eight guys ready to play.
Mack can stick with the PNR-heavy approach he rolled with last year or go back to the by-committee approach that meshed well in their Chin series during the Jordan Nwora days. Either way, Williams’ health, Williamson emerging as their clear top guy and the consistent drilling of shots are all key storylines heading into the campaign.
Virginia Cavaliers
Head coach: Tony Bennett
The Cavs lose a fair amount, both to transfer and to the NBA. Trey Murphy, Jay Huff and Sam Hauser gave Tony Bennett a great offensive identity revolving around shooting. The three guards at UVA — Khiei Clark, Reece Beekman and Indiana transfer Armaan Franklin — are pretty dynamic and will fit into either the PNR motion or Mover-Blocker offenses that Bennett is known to run. Franklin, in particular, will be a good addition on both ends.
Kadin Sherick and Jayden Gardner are going to step into a frontcourt that evolved from its toughness mantra in the past to a skill-based approach with Hauser and Huff. I’d expect the Cavaliers to look to regain their edge — the defense wasn’t bad last year by any standard other than Bennett’s.
Frankly, the Cavaliers have always achieved based on identity. They develop pro-caliber talent while not having many five-star prospects that come to Charlottesville. It’s not the sexiest group of players, but year in and year out, the Cavaliers will be in the NCAA Tournament and the top-25. Their identity demands it.
Florida State Seminoles
Head coach: Leonard Hamilton
While Virginia gets all the love as the defensive juggernaut, Leonard Hamilton has quietly assembled a nightmare team to play against in their switch-everything format. Hamilton figured out a few years ago that supreme length, depth and athleticism make his defense really hard to score on, that transition becomes apparent and they score enough to win games.
What he’s also figured out is the value of great shooters in the half-court. Enter senior Anthony Polite (43.6% from 3), 6’8” forward Wyatt Wilkes (38.1% from 3), 6’9” Malik Osborne (36.5% from 3) and Houston transfer Caleb Mills (a career 36% shooter from deep). Last year’s Seminoles group shot over 40% beyond the arc in ACC play, the league’s top mark. Two freshmen: 6’6” Matthew Cleveland and 6’4” point guard Jalen Warley will add to that positive mark, replacing talented but non-shooters Scottie Barnes and RaiQuan Gray.
Cleveland, in particular, should turn heads and be a great finisher and in transition. He’s their most talented player from the jump. Warley, a guard I’ve long championed should be an elite college scorer, may not be ready for the rigors of ACC physicality from day one, but is too talented not to figure it out. Sprinkle in the athletic Cam’Ron Fletcher, a former star-studded recruit at Kentucky, and the Seminoles are once again deep and balanced with defensive playmaking and deep range assassins. This is another team that should push for a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament. Every addition they’ve made has been a positive one, and helps offset the hefty losses of Barnes, Gray, MJ Walker and Balsa Koprivica.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Head coach: Hubert Davis
It was eleven years ago when I met Hubert Davis, a then-analyst for ESPN, and felt that he was one of the most charismatic people I’d been in contact with. It makes sense, then, that Davis is the heir apparent in Chapel Hill for Roy Williams and has already hit a boon on the recruiting trail.
The talent is there for Davis to win with immediately. The sophomore trifecta in the backcourt of Caleb Love, RJ Davis (one of the best high school scorers I’ve ever seen live) and Kerwin Walton is ready to take a big step forward. Seniors Leaky Black and Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek provide a nice inside-outside punch. Dawson Garcia is their prized transfer addition from Marquette, a legitimate stretch-4 with pro upside. Armando Bacot looks like Yves Pons with all the improvements to his body, and with more frontcourt time after Walker Kessler, Garrison Brooks and Da’Ron Sharpe departed, he’ll be a favorite for ACC First-Team consideration.
More than anything, we need to get a feel for how Davis modernizes the Carolina break and offense. The Tar Heels built a reputation the last few years on ramming it inside, crashing the offensive glass like there’s no tomorrow and leaving zero space for guards to drive-and-kick. The lane can be opened with additions of Manek and Garcia, but Davis must first prioritize that schematically. The roster lends itself well to a more pace-and-space game, and the hidden key to it all: 6’7” sophomore Puff Johnson. If the mild-mannered but highly skilled Pittsburgh native can log perimeter minutes at the 4, the Heels will have length and depth to keep up with the torrid offenses they face.
Duke Blue Devils
Head coach: Mike Krzyzewski
The swan song of the greatest since John Wooden, Coach K has seen so many eras come and go in college basketball. He’s cut down the nets once in the one-and-done era, several times in the multi-year days of the late-90s and rebuilt Duke with skilled guys in the late 1980s. To say Coach K has lost a step in-game over the last decade would be a fair assessment, and he’s underachieved with some talented groups.
Something about this collection of talent feels a tad different. Potential top pick Paolo Banchero is as skilled, physically imposing and ready-to-dominate as any guy he’s had in the last decade. I’d take him over Jabari Parker or Jayson Tatum in terms of dominance at the college level. 6’7” athlete AJ Griffin is an enigmatic scorer with an NBA pedigree and freakish play in transition. Having them at the 3 and 4 is excellent, and the Devils will be able to move them to the 4 or 5 in the right matchups. Double-double machine Mark Williams finished the 2021 season on a high note and is ready to anchor Duke’s interior: he’s going to be incredibly statistically impactful if he plays 25 minutes a night or more.
Sophomore Jeremy Roach and junior Wendell Moore pace a backcourt that is a tad underwhelming by Duke standards. Freshman Trevor Keels will help, and if he eventually supplants Moore in the lineup it could be for the best. 6’2’ Jaylen Blakes out of Blair is a dark horse for rotation minutes, and Marquette stretch-big Theo John rounds out the frontcourt. Like most Duke teams, their top-eight is pretty clearly defined and fits well together.
The only question that matters is: can this team gel enough to win a national championship? Defensively that remains to be seen. Banchero defending in space, the freshmen being ready on that end and Coach K finding the right scheme to maximize their impact are the storylines to watch. Expect Jon Scheyer to have a larger impact on those decisions, and the Blue Devils to easily rebound from last year’s disaster to become a top-five team in the country once again.