2021-22 Preview: Best Mid-Majors
Outside of the Power Six conferences, which teams are poised to make national headlines this season?
The college basketball season is around the corner and starting before you know it. At this point, rosters are pretty well set, the transfer window is done and teams know who their top options will be. Through our years of scouting and watching far too many college games and clips, and the last four years as a college coach on the recruiting trail, we’ve seen so many of these players come up through the youth and AAU ranks.
Put the NBA Draft aside: what college basketball teams are poised for a big year? We go through the best conferences in America one by one to break down exactly what lies ahead in the 2021-22 season.
There are several teams we have our eyes on, both for draft purposes and to make waves in college basketball, who are outside of the main conferences discussed in most preseason previews. We’ll look at some of our favorites here, breaking down what their outlook for the season is and what their chances are of making a deep run into March.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Head coach: Randy Bennett
Mr. Brilliant Offense has always been second-fiddle in the WAC behind Gonzaga. This year will likely not be much different. The Gaels have seen some great collegiate players pass through their ranks, and last year was a step backwards after Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts departed. The Gaels only went 14-10, but bring every single player back, banking on continuity to carry them back towards the NCAA Tournament. Keep an eye on point guard Tommy Kuhse, and the senior-laden backcourt could provide fits for a suddenly-young Gonzaga.
Dayton Flyers
Head coach: Anthony Grant
Ever since the explosion of Obi Toppin a few years ago, the Flyers have held a great deal of momentum on the recruiting trail. Anthony Grant cashed that in this year by signing an elite member of the Class of 2021 in DaRon Holmes and getting prized Georgia transfer Toumani Camara to come to Dayton. Now, the Flyers have two fantastic athletes with skill in their trailer spot. Those two, along with DePaul transfer Kobe Elvis, will look to replace the scoring punch left behind by Jalen Crutcher (17.6 points) and Ibi Watson (15.7 points).
Grant’s transition offense is so organized and tough to guard with athletes and inside-out threats atop the key. What remains to be seen is if the Flyers will play smaller and faster or bigger by putting Camara at the 3, Holmes at the 4 and center Mustapha Amzil at the 5. Amzil will start and be a solid anchor, but stylistically their rotations (and their talent ceiling) will be dependent on how Holmes forces his way into the rotation. They’ll surprise some teams and knock on the door of an NCAA appearance.
Richmond Spiders
Head coach: Chris Mooney
Mooney and his Princeton offense finally broke through last year, featuring a huge win at Kentucky and a 24-7 overall record. While scoring guard Blake Francis (16.1 points) is gone, everyone else comes back to keep the band together. Within a Princeton system, that balance and comfort in the offense will allow the group to compensate.
Four players — Grant Golden, Jacob Gilyard chief among them — averaged 12 per game and are back on this roster. Golden, a really good interior big man with great feel as a passer, will be a frontrunner for A-10 Player of the Year. Gilyard has some sleeper NBA potential and is a dynamic 3-point shooter. If Nick Sherod, who missed last year due to a torn ACL, returns to the team in the same form he had prior to the injury, the Spiders won’t skip a beat and can win 25 games this year.
Saint Louis Billikens
Head coach: Travis Ford
Since coming to Saint Louis, Travis Ford has become a better coach, no doubt about it. Ford is breaking through with a few really good players, including elite passing point guard Yuri Collins and strong scoring wing Javonte Perkins (17.1 points). Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French are tough losses in their rotation, but we have faith in the transfers the Billikens have brought in.
DeAndre Jones from Central Arkansas gives a two-point guard lineup for the Bilikens along with Collins. Rashad Williams from Oakland was a prolific scorer at his prior stop, and big man Francis Okoro started 19 games with Oregon the season before transferring. What they lack in star power (goodbye Goodwin) they make up for with depth. Perkins is ready to take a step forward and guard Gabe Jimerson is a solid player as well. Really like they’re backcourt.
San Diego State Aztecs
Head coach: Brian Dutcher
Replacing Jordan Schakel and Matt Mitchell, two NBA-caliber players, won’t be easy for Dutcher — he loses quite a lot from last year. Even Terrell Gomez, the undersized sniper, won’t be easy to replace. Softening the blow is Cal transfer Matt Bradley, a supremely physical do-it-all player who can function in the role of Mitchell while handling and creating late clock.
Point guard Trey Pulliam will need to step up if the Aztecs fancy themselves the class of the Mountain West. Three other players come to San Diego off the transfer market hoping to make an instant impact. They’ll sit and guard for long stretches and be a tough team to score on. An NCAA Tournament run as an at large berth? Might be a little more difficult to come by this year.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Head coach: Mark Schmidt
Last year, the two-man combo of Osun Osunniyi and Kyle Lofton gave the Bonnies two of the most talented players in the conference. Schmidt, a strong defensive coach, got the most out of both and kept the Bonnies on the NCAA radar. This year, they’ve got both stars back and a few big-name transfers to help fill in the gaps.
Pitt transfer Karim Coulibaly (5.2 points, 3.9 rebounds) is an elite backup big for Osunniyi that can play alongside him against major conference teams with size. He and JUCO transfer Linton Brown bring a little more pop and depth to this squad. But they aren’t the reason the Bonnies are favored to take a step forward. Alongside Lofton and Osunniyi, three double-digit scorers return. The Bonnies are the most experienced mid-major out there and should spend some time ranked in the top 25 this year.
Houston Cougars
Head coach: Kelvin Sampson
Sampson can coach, and since he’s been at Houston he’s been an excellent recruiter. Losing a talent like Quentin Grimes and a defender like DeJon Jarreau will hurt the Cougs, who made the Final Four last year and were one of the best teams in the nation start to finish. Replacing those two stalwarts are Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards (10.1 points) and Cal-Bakersfield transfer Taze Moore (12.2 points).
The real jump for this group to return to elite status will be from within, though. Edwards helps score the ball without sacrificing the toughness of their defensive unit. Sophomore Tramon Mark and junior point guard Marcus Sasser will need to be All-Conference performers for the Cougars to crack the top ten. Sasser is more than capable, a solid shooter who plays on or off-ball and will be great in the Grimes role of darting off complex screen-the-screener actions.
Sampson teams always defend hard, and this year’s Houston group will be no exception. Reggie Chaney and Fabian White are solid frontcourt powers who can protect the rim and have enough mobility to guard stretch-5s. Scoring on Houston won’t be easy. If they can generate enough offense through the backcourt of Edwards and Sasser, they’ll be an at-large team safely. If Mark also comes on, they’ll push for a top seed once again.
Memphis Tigers
Head coach: Penny Hardaway
What Penny has built in a short time as coach at Memphis, in a non-power conference like the AAC, is so damn impressive. The two most highly-coveted young recruits both reclassed to join the Tigers this year in Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren. From a pure size and talent perspective, those two alone are enough to win 12 games in the AAC. Duren will be physical and ready for college ball from day one, while Bates’ combination of length and skill are difficult matchups.
To spend all our time talking about those two does a disservice to the depth this roster has. Sophomore guard Lester Quinones is a good combo who plays more an off-ball role, making him perfect while Duren and Bates get touches. Analytics darlings love frontcourt stretch-big Deandre Williams, a 25-year-old who balances out the youth and inexperience of Duren. Shooting wing Landers Noelly could play 2 thru 4, and with the Tigers building a supremely long roster, expect to see him more on the perimeter knocking down shots. Miami transfer Earl Timberlake is a point wing who should create a fair amount when one of Bates or Duren isn’t featured, and freshman Josh Minott is expected to be a stud someday; we’ll see if he contributes in 2021.
The Tigers will be a tough out. Defensively, they’re so long and athletic that getting past them or finishing at the rim will be a tough task. Offensively, the Tigers have an inverted roster with creators on the wings and frontcourt. There’s enough shooting to make it work and Penny has versatility to press different buttons on different nights. The Tigers are a legitimate threat to finish top-five in the country. Don’t be surprised if they do.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Head coach: Mark Few
Gonzaga’s offense has been a staple of efficiency and dominance over the last half-decade. Jalen Suggs was the icing on the cake last year, a true top-five talent and certain one-and-done prospect for the first time in Mark Few’s tenure. As he waded into this field, he saw the Bulldogs climb atop the national rankings and almost run the table. He’ll try to accomplish the same this year with top recruit Chet Holmgren and two dynamic freshman guards in Hunter Sallis and Nolan Hickman.
Sallis and Hickman will initially take a backseat to veterans on the roster like Andrew Nembhard and Iowa State transfer Rasir Bolton. Those four make up the most talented and balanced backcourt in the country. As Few is known to do, he’ll cycle through all of them in an on-ball and off-ball role.
Drew Timme, the frontrunner for WCC Player of the Year and the best post-up scorer in the nation, will anchor the attack on the inside. He’s quick enough to take guys off the bounce, tremendously strong with his footwork and competent as a shooter. What remains to be seen is how Holmgren, the most unique 7’0” prospect in college basketball in years, will be used offensively alongside Timme and within Gonzaga’s hi-lo schemes. Junior forward Anton Watson is solid and 6’7” swingman Julian Strawther can play the 3 or the 4 in the same ways Corey Kispert did a year ago.
Few has options, but never a unique piece to work with like Holmgren. It may be a little different on offense than we’re used to seeing. Defensively, this is the best rim protector the Zags have had in years. Expect them to dominate the WCC once again, have the depth and talent to win games early in the year and once again be a title contender.