2021-22 Preview: Big Ten

Can Juwan Howard rule the Midwest once again, or will some grizzled Big Ten veteran coaches supplant him at the top?

The college basketball season is around the corner and starting before you know it. At this point, rosters are pretty well set, the transfer window is done and teams know who their top options will be. Through our years of scouting and watching far too many college games and clips, and the last four years as a college coach on the recruiting trail, we’ve seen so many of these players come up through the youth and AAU ranks.

Put the NBA Draft aside: what college basketball teams are poised for a big year? We go through the best conferences in America one by one to break down exactly what lies ahead in the 2021-22 season.

Our last stop on the conference preview tour hits on the grittiest major conference in the Big Ten. The last several years were marked by impressive big man play. There are still a few holdovers and great post players, but this is a conference that is slowly evolving to a more modern brand of basketball.

Several teams lost the bulk of their roster, especially those who found success last year. The top of the Big Ten will be decided by which programs quickly and effectively reload, and if one or two others will force their way in based on continuity.

Predictions:

14. Minnesota Golden Gophers

13. Northwestern Wildcats

12. Penn State Nittany Lions

11. Nebraska Cornhuskers

10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

9. Iowa Hawkeyes

8. Wisconsin Badgers

7. Indiana Hoosiers

6. Michigan State Spartans

5. Illinois Fighting Illini

4. Maryland Terrapins

3. Ohio State Buckeyes

2. Purdue Boilermakers

1. Michigan Wolverines

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Head coach: Ben Johnson

A young, passionate coach who seems to be taking the “establish a culture of transfers fueling our program” strategy, Johnson won’t find immediate success in Minnesota. Johnson had no choice but to take this path, with only one returning player expected to get minutes again (senior Eric Curry).

George Washington transfer Jamison Battle was a good get, and he’ll have at least two years to play with the Gophers. The other six transfers are all redshirt seniors simply meant to plug the holes in the interim. Luke Loewe (William & Mary) can play a bit at the point, and Payton Willis (Charleston) can shoot it. Freshman big Treyton Thompson is far too thin for the rigors of the Big Ten, but he’s an important piece to develop long-term. Don’t get caught in the weeds here… Johnson has a grace period in year one after inheriting a mess from Richard Pitino. But he hasn’t struck gold on the recruiting circuit, so this will continue to be a program judged on how many transfers he can get in.

Northwestern Wildcats

Head coach: Chris Collins

The loss of Miller Kopp to in-league Indiana is a tough pill to swallow, but the Wildcats have a solid returning group that won three of their final four games. They beat Michigan State, Ohio State and Maryland last season… there’s a chance we’re sleeping on this group once again. Point guard Boo Buie can go, and shooting guard Chase Audige is a real scorer. I’ve coached Robbie Beran before at camps and he’s gotten so much better in his time at Northwestern that betting on him (and others) to take another step forward doesn’t sound far-feteched.

The crowned jewel for this team is big man Peter Nance. If there was ever time to make noise and push for the top, it would be in his senior year. He and Beran are both stretch-4s masquerading as a frontcourt tandem; they impose a unique style offensively on the league but can’t guard the blocks effectively. We really like Farleigh Dickinson transfer Elyjah Williams, a human bowling ball who provides much-needed rim attacking. Once again, the Wildcats will be strong offensively but without interior defensive improvement it’s hard to envision them making a tournament push. This may be the last ride for Collins.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Head coach: Micah Shrewsberry

A former Purdue assistant, Butler assistant under Brad Stevens and NBA staffer, Micah has so many different coaching trees to draw from that it’s hard to know what his style of play will be like. Instead of surmising, let’s just look at the players he’ll deal with in year one. Micah lost a lot of returning scoring, but Siena transfer Jalen Pickett is a competent do-it-all point guard who should provide a defensive identity with his size. Don’t sleep on him or 4-man Seth Lundy. John Harrar and Myles Dread are also key returners. Harrar is an underrated collegiate big man who will give others fits with his effort.

There’s talent here, and a few other transfers come in to stabilize the scoring losses in the backcourt. Until we know what Shrew’s gameplan is, it’s hard to evaluate just how they’ll play and perform. What we can say is this: we’re big fans of him as a recruiter, and if he can establish a strong pipeline to State College, they’ll be in solid shape long-term.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Head coach: Fred Hoiberg

We keep waiting and waiting for Hoiberg to recapture the magic of Iowa State here in Lincoln. The facilities are top notch, there’s a passionate fanbase eager to win and they play in a great league. To try and get things rolling, Hoiberg is throwing a bunch of reload talent against the wall to see what sticks. The issue is, when he’s successful, guys are leaving either for the pros or elsewhere. Dalano Banton declared and got drafted; had he returned, this Cornhuskers team would be pretty damn good.

Star freshman Bryce McGowens can take over the role of alpha, while Arizona State transfer Alonzo Verge is a scoring combo who will thrive in Hoiberg’s 5-out offense. Lat Mayen can be a pick-and-pop big man that’s a tough guard, and Xavier transfer CJ Wilcher is the right talent grab for them to make despite CJ’s struggles last year. Senior guard Trey McGowens is back after scoring 14 a game. They’ll have offensive firepower and a system to fuel it, but sustaining success won’t be doable until they get an interior defensive presence. A baby step forward under Hoiberg in year three won’t be do much to buy him patience from the fan base — though it should.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Head coach: Steve Pikiell

When seniors Geo Baker (10.4 points, 3.2 assists) and Ron Harper Jr. (14.9 points) decided to return to the RAC for another season, the Scarlet Knight avoided a huge drop-off from NCAA Tournament to basement of the Big Ten. The other losses — rim protector Myles Johnson, in particular — likely prevent Steve Pikiell from making back-to-back tournament appearances. Cliff Omoruyi becomes the X-Factor for this team: if he replaces Johnson as a reputable big man in the paint and can finish at the rim, the Scarlet Knight have a chance.

It’s a team that plays tough as nails but doesn’t shoot it a ton, battled injuries but still overachieved. Aundre Hyatt, the LSU transfer, could be a nice addition as a powerful 4-man that bruises the bottom of the conference and the slimmer wings he’s matched up with. He and Harper are a physically imposing wing/ forward duo. How the Scarlet Knights fill in at the 2 and 3 to space the floor around them will dictate their success: if they shoot it and are physically imposing up front, they’ll be a sleeper pick to return to the tournament.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Head coach: Fran McCaffrey

The Hawkeyes likely lost more than any team in the Big Ten from an identity standpoint. Luka Garza, Jack Nunge, Joe Wieskamp, CJ Frederick… they’re all elite scorers and shooters. McCaffrey has a little bit of talent left behind: senior point guard Jordan Bohannon and sophomore forward Keegan Murray are a solid foundation for talent. North Dakota transfer Filip Rebraca is a nice stretch-5 option who works inside and out and can keep the same play style from their last few years.

The point guard spot next to Bohannon might be done by committee: Ahron Ulis and Joe Toussaint will battle for a starting spot. Similarly, the combo guard spots for shooting will be heavily reliant on whether one of two McCaffreys (Connor or Patrick) can log consistent minutes. The depth simply isn’t there to withstand any of these four not playing well, and I wouldn’t be surprised the Hawkeyes miss the dance.

Wisconsin Badgers

Head coach: Greg Gard

Sharpshooter Brad Davison (a super senior for the Badgers chasing their all-time 3-point record) and big sophomore guard Jonathan Davis take the reigns from a team that lost a ton of scoring, especially in the frontcourt. Nate Reuvers, Aleem Ford and Micah Potter are gone, as is D’Mitrik Trice from the backcourt. That’s a lot to make up for. Gard’s original plan was for Davis and sophomore Ben Carlson to learn as freshmen and be ready to take the reigns year two. Carlson was injured as a freshman and hasn’t demonstrated a ton of development defensively — he’s a good scorer inside and out, but this is a Badgers team without their typical defensive acumen.

Cincinnati transfer Chris Vogt is a true seven-footer who can help as a redshirt senior, and junior Tyler Wahl has role player upside. But the Badgers are thin and young; it’ll take a year or so until we know if this rebuild is headed in the right direction. Davis may be asked to do it all and is capable of carrying the load. Fringe NCAA Tournament team at best right now.

Indiana Hoosiers

Head coach: Mike Woodson

Ah, modernism. Welcome to Bloomington. As Archie Miller underwhelmed and brought the Hoosiers to a major standstill offensively, he also failed to hit bullseyes on his recruits. Last year, four freshmen got into the rotation. Only two (Trey Galloway and Jordan Geronimo) are capable of logging minutes on a winning team. To supplant the failures Miller had with Khristian Lander and Anthony Leal, Mike Woodson went out and recruited three senior transfers: Miller Kopp (Northwestern), Xavier Johnson (Pitt) and Parker Stewart (UT-Martin). Stewart and Kopp shoot the crap out of it, while Johnson can score right away.

A fascinating dynamic is developing in Bloomington as a result. Woodson’s push to modernize the offense towards more treys and pace will change the rotation. Those new one-year transfers might play a lot, but freshman Tamar Bates and Archie holdovers Rob Phinese and Galloway are guys who expect minutes. There isn’t room for everyone.

Likewise, the Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson duo hasn’t been conducive to spacing on offense (though perhaps that was Miller’s offense). Both are deserving of minutes; TJD is an All-American candidate. Can Woodson move Miller Kopp to the 4 and sacrifice or stagger the frontcourt minutes? A lot is left to be determined, but there’s enough talent here and a large enough bump to be had from improved coaching that the Hoosiers are likely an NCAA Tournament team.

Michigan State Spartans

Head coach: Tom Izzo

Coach Izzo has missed one NCAA Tournament since 1997. He’s also never gone two years in a row without winning a tournament game… until now. The Spartans got knocked out in the First Four to UCLA, the eventual Final Four team. Betting on that moving to three in a row is not something we’re willing to do.

Tyson Walker, the transfer from Northeastern, is the point guard ready to take the reigns from the failed Rocket Watts era. Walker was a prolific mid-major scorer in the CAA and will bring a pugnacious attitude to East Lansing. Freshman wing Max Christie is potentially the first one-and-done the Spartans have seen in a few seasons. Joey Hauser is a capable shooting 4-man, and senior Gabe Brown is a competent wing to glue things together.

The questions that lie ahead are what happens in the frontcourt (Marcus Bingham vs. Mady Sissoko), what they’ll get out of sophomore AJ Hoggard and if any other freshman find a way to contribute. Sparty isn’t deep, but Izzo will have them playing defense and rely on Christie, Walker and Hauser to handle the scoring.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Head coach: Brad Underwood

Last year was finally the breakthrough of Underwood in major conference play, helping the Illini secure a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. While Ayo Dosunmu left for the NBA, he wasn’t the only loss: Adam Miller and Giorgi Bezanshvili aren’t back in Champaign.

Let’s talk about who is here: mammoth big man Kofi Cockburn and pass-first point guard Andre Curbelo. Both are competitive, great at what they do and pop in Underwood’s movement-PNR system. The worry here is that two non-shooters involved in the PNR are only as good as the three floor-spacers around them.

Redshirt seniors Trent Frazier (36.2% from 3), Da’Monte Williams (54.7%) and Jacob Grandison (41.5%) fill that role pretty well. Utah transfer Alfonso Plummer (13.6 PPG, career 40% from 3) is the perfect replacement to Dosunmu: some late-clock ability and the off-ball prowess to let Curbelo move to an alpha position. Omar Payne and Coleman Hawkins are super talented frontcourt backups, and Cockburn can patrol the paint defensively. This is still a top-25 team.

Maryland Terrapins

Head coach: Mark Turgeon

As someone who now lives in Terp country, I’m legitimately rooting for them and hope they have a big season. Only three contributors return from last year, but they’re three pretty good ones. Stretch-4 Donta Scott is ready to be the team’s best player. Eric Ayala is a really good scorer on the wing and is an experienced senior. Hakim Hart does a little bit of everything and is a supremely underrated passer.

To round out the starting 5, Turgeon went out and found two really good book ends in Qudus Wahab (Georgetown) and Fatts Russell (Rhode Island). Wahab gives the Terps a much-needed interior presence on both ends. Russell can score in a hurry and averaged almost two steals per game. Freshman forward Julian Reese will turn some heads, and Old Dominion transfer Xavier Green is essentially a 6’6” point wing. There’s a lot of intriguing pieces in College Park, and Scott is the key to them all. If he’s an elite shooter once again and a dominant athlete, the one-two punch of he and Wahab will be able to carry the Terps well into March.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Head coach: Chris Holtmann

There’s a three-tier team at the top capable of winning the Big Ten this year. Ohio State is among them, and would be the favorite if not for the pair of injuries to Seth Towns and Meechie Johnson. Towns is a backup forward while Johnson a backup point guard, and if they have an extended absence it will expose a lack of depth the Buckeyes possess. They’re already thin in the backcourt, relying on Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler and freshman Malakai Branham to carry the load. Louisiana transfer Cedric Russell could factor into the equation as well.

Up front, the Buckeyes are dynamic. Justice Sueing, EJ Liddell and Kyle Young are as physical and skilled a 3, 4 and 5 trifecta as the country has to offer. Liddell, our favorite for Big Ten Player of the Year, is the perfect inside-outside threat who should be on pro radars. The Buckeyes even have depth, with Zed Key and Indiana transfer Joey Brunk.

Holtmann has long been a favorite of ours ever since seeing his Butler and Ohio State teams practice. He runs a good program, a lot of solid offense and is a fantastic skill developer. If the depth of their second unit in the backcourt holds up, this is a team that should knock on the top-ten all year.

Purdue Boilermakers

Head coach: Matt Painter

We’ve known Painter and his staff for years, and their mantra is one of toughness, continued emphasis on sacrifice and attracting multi-year guys who share the same beliefs. In that light, it’s no surprise that Jaden Ivey chose to return to Purdue for his sophomore year to help lead the Boilermakers deep into March. Once Ivey made his decision, the rest of the team followed suit and now they have the deepest team in the league.

Ivey’s full-court prowess and ability to be handed the keys to the offense will show well with three other senior starters: big man and double-double machine Trevion Williams, combo guard Eric Hunter and shooting specialist Sasha Stefanovic. While those four will be the key to this team, Painter does have a stable of frontcourt depth to continue their favored bruising and interior defensive ways. Behind Williams is Zach Edey (7’4” and with leathery touch) and freshmen Trey Kaufman (former Indiana state champion) and Caleb Furst (dominant big from Fort Wayne). They aren’t going anywhere and can wear teams down in the frontcourt.

Sharpshooter Brandon Newman is a nice plug-and-play wing whose presence can help the Boilermakers go big or small, dependent on opponent. Sophomore 6’6” playmaker Ethan Morton is too talented to sit forever and should get a few minutes as a bench facilitator.

This is likely Painter’s most talented team top to bottom. One potential lottery pick with a ton of high recruits, enough shooting to space the floor and a stable of bigs. Purdue can win any game they play, but they’re also as beatable as any preseason top-five team in the country.

Michigan Wolverines

Head coach: Juwan Howard

There isn’t enough time here to do justice to Juwan Howard’s amazing coaching job. In two years in Ann Arbor, Howard’s teams have started the season 25th or lower and wound up ranked in the top-5 at some point during the year. We expect much of the same in year three, with the wizardry of Howard continuing to put his players only in a position to succeed. The Wolverines lost a lot of veteran presences and versatile pieces, but Howard has reloaded gracefully and will once again maximize his group.

The Wolverines likely have the best freshman class outside of Duke. Caleb Houstan is an elite wing who can be a fantastic shooter when he gets going, has long arms and is a hopeful top-ten pick in 2022. Moussa Diabate is a hybrid 4 and 5 who plays well on both ends and could be a dominant defender; carving out minutes next to Hunter Dickinson will be the key to early success. Frankie Collins and Kobe Bufkin would also be fine if they saw minutes this year.

The backcourt in Ann Arbor is pretty solid, with DeVante Jones (Coastal Carolina transfer) and the do-it-all Eli Brooks. Of course, Dickinson is the centerpiece at the 5, one of the best collegiate big men out there, and he’s only a sophomore. Getting one of their depth pieces in Brandon Johns, Terrence Williams and Zeb Jackson to take a large step forward out fill out the rotation will move the Wolverines to the top of the Big Ten. Howard will take care of the rest.