2021-22 Preview: Big Twelve

The Big Twelve is heavy at the top once again. Can anyone stop the momentum Chris Beard has quickly built in Austin?

The college basketball season is around the corner and starting before you know it. At this point, rosters are pretty well set, the transfer window is done and teams know who their top options will be. Through our years of scouting and watching far too many college games and clips, and the last four years as a college coach on the recruiting trail, we’ve seen so many of these players come up through the youth and AAU ranks.

Put the NBA Draft aside: what college basketball teams are poised for a big year? We go through the best conferences in America one by one to break down exactly what lies ahead in the 2021-22 season.

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and Bill Self competing for a Big Twelve title. This year’s biggest obstacle comes in the way of Chris Beard and the Texas Longhorns. Beard, a defector from Texas Tech, is back at his alma mater and bringing his hard-nosed, in-your-face, recruiting violation (oops, did I say that out loud) tactics to Austin. The conference crown isn’t just a two-team race (after all, the defending National Champion Baylor Bears are once again going to be strong), but expect no love to be lost as they both wade their way through one of the final iterations of this league as we know it.

Predictions:

10. Kansas State Wildcats

9. Iowa State Cyclones

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders

7. Oklahoma Sooners

6. West Virginia Mountaineers

5. TCU Horned Frogs

4. Oklahoma State Cowboys

3. Baylor Bears

2. Texas Longhorns

1. Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas State Wildcats

Head coach: Bruce Weber

Weber is a phenomenal coach and recruiter who is finding the confines of the Little Apple to be a tad restricting. He’s brought in solid talent but had issues retaining them — whether that’s his doing or not. Sophomore guard Nijel Pack from Indianapolis returns after a strong freshman campaign on high volume. Two key transfers in Mark Smith (from Missouri) and Ismael Massoud (Wake Forest) will slot into the starting rotation immediately and help stabilize a team in desperate need of major conference talent.

Regardless of the obstacles, Weber got the Wildcats to win 4 of their last 6 after starting conference play 1-13. Massoud and Smith will help, and Pack getting a year older breeds confidence this team continues with that momentum. I’d expect the Wildcats to be better but still not quite good enough.

Iowa State Cyclones

Head coach: TJ Otzelberger

It’s a leap of faith in TJ Otzelberger to put the Cyclones out of the basement in year one after going 0-18 last season. Part of that optimism comes from belief that Tyrese Hunter is far too talented a player to be stuck on a last-place team. The 6’1” freshman guard is incredibly dynamic and an unbelievable prized recruit for Otz before coaching a game in Ames. His ability to guard the ball at a high level and create for others makes him the perfect engine for year one.

Kansas transfer Tristan Enaruna could slide in right away and be a supremely athletic swing forward that the Cyclones need. Three other major-conference transfers help stabilize the rotation (Izaiah Brockington from Penn State chief among them), as all three averaged 9 PPG or above last season. Caleb Grill is back in Ames and, if all goes well, will be a sniper in Otzelberger’s high-octane offensive attack. There are pieces here, and Otz has done a hell of a job springing the leaks for an improvement in year one.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Head coach: Mark Adams

This is likely to be the lowest projection for the Red Raiders that you’ll see. It’s not due to hatred of their roster by any means. Terrence Shannon Jr, Kevin Obanor, Sardaar Calhoun and Marcus Santos-Silva are all individually talented. I’m skeptical of the operation in Lubbock for two reasons. First, the fit of Obanor and Santos-Silva together. Second, the horrid offensive development that took place (or failed to) under Chris Beard.

Adams inherits a team built on culture and defense, but with little in the way of offensive organization. He’s cobbled together a good team on the transfer market and should get strong contributions from Bryson Williams (UTEP) and Davion Warren (Hampton). But Adams also built their style of play as an assistant under Beard and the architect of the defense. It’d be fair to suggest that the same trends continue. Santos-Silva and Obanor are a tad undersized to be guys the no-middle schemes funnel towards, and I don’t have great faith in their perimeter shooting. They’ll beat teams with defense and grind you to death, but the top of the league is far too talented for that alone to propel them to the top-25.

Oklahoma Sooners

Head coach: Porter Moser

Another new head coach in the Big Twelve! Moser takes over from an offensive genius in Lon Kruger and will bring a far different defensive style to Norman. Eventually. The Sooners lost their talented backcourt and stretch forward Brady Manek, but Moser did a solid job finding talent elsewhere. Duke transfer Jordan Goldwire is ripe for a breakout, a great on-ball defender whose play style meshes seamlessly with his new coach.

Stepping into the Cam Krutwig role within the Moser offense is Eastern Washington transfer Tanner Groves, a productive big at 6’9” with some chops away from the hoop. There’s a lot of rotation-level talent here, whether they’re leftover from Kruger, other transfers or a couple of high-upside freshmen. But it seems a little early to scrap together a winning program. Moser is a detail-oriented, fundamentals-based guy. That doesn’t typically breed success in year one.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Head coach: Bob Huggins

This season represents a major moment of decision-making for Huggins. A long-time holdout of 3-point volume, space revolution and supporter of two-big lineups, he lost both Oscar Tshiebwe and Derek Culver, as well as top scorer Miles McBride. There’s still talent: Sean McNeil and Taz Sherman averaged double figures and stretch wing Jalen Bridges is poised for a breakout. Transfers into the frontcourt are the linchpin of the season, but Huggins embrace of his team’s best trait (shooting) will be the storyline to watch.

Huggy Bear did so willingly on the fly last season, and now finds himself with a team fully built around the trey ball. Replacing Culver on the interior will be their challenge. When they needed a bucket, he was there, and playing inside-out was a great option. I’m not sure that player exists on this lineup, thus not collapsing defenses enough for kickouts to produce high-percentage looks. I think the Mountaineers take a solid step back towards bubble territory.

TCU Horned Frogs

Head coach: Jamie Dixon

We’re putting a lot of faith in the backcourt combo of Mike Miles and UT-Arlington transfer Shahada Wells. If those two, joined by Texas A&M transfer Emanuel Miller, can pace the Horned Frogs offensively, I have faith in them to avoid the basement.

There are several X-Factors though, and I feel as if they’re slept on in terms of how good TCU can be if all of them pan out. One is Texas Tech transfer Micah Peavy, a pro-level prospect with elite defensive footwork on the perimeter. He could be the best lockdown wing in the league. The other is JUCO import Souleymane Doumbia, a dominant rim protector who should start right away and will be tested to run clean-up duty behind an undersized backcourt tandem. Finally, there’s Chuck O’Bannon, a stretch-4 gunner who I’d expect to work well with Miller and Peavy at the 3 and 4 spots. It’s easily conceivable that Peavy is an elite defender, O’Bannon shoots 37% from deep and Doumbia is an above-average Big Twelve rim protector. If all that happens, Miles is good enough to carry this team’s offense to the NCAA Tournament.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Head coach: Mike Boynton

How do you replace a Cade Cunningham? Boynton shouldn’t even try. Instead, he should lean into the fact that the current team boasts tournament experience, is a little more well-suited to fit together and only lost the top pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. Boynton capitalized on the recruiting momentum, bringing in three largely impactful transfers in Moussa Cisse (Memphis), Bryce Thompson (Kansas) and 6’8” athlete Tyreek Smith (Texas Tech).

The Cowboys backcourt, with Thompson, Isaac Likekele (the best rebounding point guard in the nation) and Avery Anderson (a lockdown defender) will be incredibly difficult to score against. Frontcourt returnees Kalib Boone and Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe had their moments, both positive and negative. Adding in the talented 6’10” Cisse to the mix gives them a different level of athlete and defensive anchor. The bottom line is this: the Cowboys may struggle to score at time, but they will be a top-three defense in the conference. In a league chock full of elite teams on that end (Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, any Bob Huggins-coached team) that’s saying something.

Baylor Bears

Head coach: Scott Drew

The reigning National Champions certainly lost a lot (especially in the backcourt) but they return a solid base of talent. Arizona transfer James Akinjo comes in to stabilize the point guard spot and give them offensive firepower. I’m not a huge Adam Flagler fan, but he’s expected to move into the starting rotation. Matthew Mayer, a skilled 3 or 4 on offense, can swing the momentum of games in Baylor’s favor in a hurry and is among the nation’s best at attacking closeouts.

The prized addition that keeps the Bears relevant is 5-star recruit Kendall Brown. He’s more a defender and slasher than anything else, but he fits really well into the no-middle defense and gives Drew a type of weapon he hasn’t had in years. Freshman guard Langston Love is another name to watch as part of this fantastic recruiting class.

Of course, the Bears are still incredibly deep up front. Goodluck Jonathan, Flo Thamba and Dain Dainja will rotate in and out of games based on fouls and matchups. I’m not sure if the backcourt is deep enough for another deep NCAA Tournament run, but there’s too much talent here to take a major step backward.

Texas Longhorns

Head coach: Chris Beard

While I certainly have my thoughts on Coach Beard, he produces. He gets high-level players to buy into his vision, coaches a hell of a defensive team and never fails to win. Back at his alma mater, he’s hit the recruiting (or transfer) trail with gusto, pulling off an impressive number of NBA-tier talents to join the team. Courtney Ramey (12.1 points) and Andrew Jones (14.6 points) are holdovers from the Shaka Smart era, and are two stabilizers in the backcourt.

The rest of the team is absolutely stacked. Minnesota transfer Marcus Carr (19.4 points) was one of my favorite scorers in the nation. Devin Askew (Kentucky) is a talented backup and pass-first guy who is no longer too young for major-conference minutes. Dylan Disu (Vanderbilt) stuffed the stat sheet before getting hurt and is the ideal 4-man for college hoops — he does a little bit of everything. UMass transfer Tre Mitchell will be competent inside, 6’7” finisher Christian Bishop (11.0 points at Creighton) can play the backup 4 and underrated wing scorer Timmy Allen (17.2 points at Utah) is as experienced as any wing in the nation.

This is a college All-Star team brimming with offensive talent. Beard is now at a school where the top-tier talent is attracted to the situation, meaning he can not worry about offense and let those guys figure it out with their talent. They’ll be a tough team to score against and are a near-certain lock to be top-five this year with their depth, experience and scoring all over.

Kansas Jayhawks

Head coach: Bill Self

While the Jayhawks haven’t felt like as dominant a force as they were a few years back, they’re still the class of the league. Marcus Garrett is the only departure from a 21-9 team, and they bring in experienced Remy Martin (Arizona State) to replace him. Remy isn’t your typical Kansas point guard, a score-first threat instead of the typical PNR facilitating, defensive-minded stopper.

Ochai Agbaji, Jalen Wilson and David McCormack come back to give Kansas the best 3 thru 5 lineup in the league, if not the country. Agbaji defends at a high level, Wilson is the ideal stretch-4 and sometimes small 5, and McCormack continues the long legacy of rollers who control the paint. Sharpshooting junior Christian Braun has a big role to play, and Iowa State transfer Jalen Coleman-Lands — who graduated from high school in 2015! — brings experience and shooting.

The newcomers are solid, too. Zach Clemence is the heir apparent to McCormack, Kyle Cuffe Jr. will eventually have a strong career and D-II transfer Cam Martin can score in the frontcourt. Joseph Yesefu (Drake) will factor into the rotation with quite a few minutes of his own.

The Jayhawks continue to do Jayhawk things. They won’t leap off the page with as much talent as a team like Texas but they’re imposing and win games. The experience that returns gives a lot of hope to them once again ruling the conference and snagging a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.