2021-22 Preview: Pac-12
With UCLA gearing up for a deep run, are there any teams that can push them for the conference crown?
The college basketball season is around the corner and starting before you know it. At this point, rosters are pretty well set, the transfer window is done and team workouts are underway. Through our years of scouting and watching far too many college games and clips, and the last four years as a college coach on the recruiting trail, we’ve seen so many of these players come up through the years.
Put the NBA Draft aside: what college basketball teams are poised for a big year? We go through the best conferences in America one by one to break down exactly what lies ahead in the 2021-22 season.
We start with the conference preview series with a look at the Pac-12. Traditionally thought of as a bit of a down conference in terms of top-tier programs, there’s a new juggernaut in town with Mick Cronin at UCLA. Tommy Lloyd looks to revive Arizona to its great heights, and Oregon is perennially one of the most underrated programs in the country. There’s a lot of good hoops to be played on the West Coast.
Predictions:
12. California Golden Bears
11. Washington Huskies
10. Utah Utes
9. Oregon State Beavers
8. Arizona State Sun Devils
7. Stanford Cardinal
6. Washington State Cougars
5. USC Trojans
4. Colorado Buffaloes
3. Arizona Wildcats
2. Oregon Ducks
1. UCLA Bruins
California Golden Bears
Head coach: Mark Fox
Horrific defense marred their 2020-21 season, sending them to a 3-17 record in conference. Fox has been building since coming to Berkeley, and there’s enough age on this roster to play much better this year on the whole and tighten up those defensive concerns. The biggest issue with taking a step forward is that the Bears lack one top player to close games. Matt Bradley, the do-it-all forward, has transferred to San Diego State. Bradley and Ryan Betley, who graduated, made up 32% of Cal’s offense last year. That’s a big loss.
Two seniors anchor a solid frontcourt in Ryan Anticevich and Andre Kelly. Their combined 19.2 points and 10.9 rebounds per game give Cal a formidable frontcourt duo. Kelly, an efficient and thick-bodied post scorer, and Anticevich, a pick & pop stretch-4, can’t carry an offense to keep up with the top dynamos of the league on their own. We’ll see if the Bears once again lead the conference in 3-point rate, as they may be a “live by the three, die by the three” type of team. Fox has always been smart with his playbook dating back to his days at Nevada — a simplistic approach around Bradley and Betley creating everything may need to be scrapped for a more sophisticated and team-based approach.
Washington Huskies
Coach: Mike Hopkins
The Huskies have underachieved a lot under Hopkins, perhaps in no grander fashion than last year. They went 5-21, missing postseason play altogether and finishing dead last in almost every defensive category. Teams figured out the zone, and their man defense (which they played a third of the time) was much, much worse. Hopkins has to figure out what their identity will be and teach the tenets of their zone to a large pool of talented transfers.
Headlining the group is Stanford transfer Daejon Davis, a really effective combo guard that plays on-ball or off it. Surrounding him are returning shooters Jamal Bey and Cole Bajema, two strong wings. When the Huskies want to play up-tempo, look for the offense to run through Terrell Brown Jr. (from Seattle via Arizona) and Emmitt Matthews Jr. (from West Virginia).
This is a much more talented group, but talent hasn’t been the issue for Hopkins’ teams. They lack the conviction to play hard, rarely combine their talents well and are below-average offensive teams as a result. While Bey and Bajema stretch the floor, there isn’t a ton of organic spacing to be found. JUCO transfer Langston Wilson, the #2-ranked recruit from the JUCO ranks, is the team’s wild card: if he can protect the rim and be a strong threat off the roll, the Huskies floor instantly raises.
Utah Utes
Head coach: Craig Smith
After parting ways with long-time boss Larry Krystowiak, the Utes poached away Craig Smith from Utah State to lead the charge. While Smith has won 20 games each of his last five years and gotten future pros Neemias Queta and Sam Merrill to town, it will take him a little longer to recreate that magic in Salt Lake City. This roster is starting over from scratch, especially after top scorer Timmy Allen (17.2 PPG) decided to transfer to Texas and Alfonso Plummer (13.6 PPG) headed to Illinois. That’s 43% of their offense.
Rollie Worster and Marco Anthony, two starters from Utah State, follow their coach up the road. 7’0” big man Riley Carlson gives them a bit of an interior presence, and four more transfers provide a little bit of instant relief. He could fill Queta’s role in an offense that ran great set plays but thrived on its dribble handoff and ball movement principles. Smith is an elite tactician who has overachieved as a recruiter: he’s going to be the perfect fit for the Utes.
The keyword is going to be. There’s only one freshman on the roster, and four of the six incoming transfers are seniors. Smith may win 6 or 7 games in-league this year on his own whiz kid status, though it’s the long-term development of players in his system that will lead the Utes back to the tournament.
Oregon State Beavers
Head coach: Wayne Tinkle
What a wild run for the Beavers last season, cashing in on two of the best players they’ve had in the last 20 years in Ethan Thompson and Warith Alatishe. Thompson was the smooth shooter and scorer who could put the team on his back; he’s since departed for professional play. Alatishe is the defensive engine, an athletic 6’8” forward who doesn’t shoot but more than makes up for it with his motor.
It will be hard to recapture that magic of their Pac-12 and NCAA Tournament run without Thompson, but it’s not like the Beavers came literally out of nowhere. They’ve won 18 games or more each of the last three seasons; they only had two such years in the decade prior. The success late-year was fueled by their unorthodox matchup zone, making them a tough team to prepare for and unleashing Alatishe on guys who think too much. On the other end, Roman Silva is their interior presence with soft touch and comes off a highly efficient season. If he can anchor this offense and the Beavers provide enough spacing around he and Alatishe, they’ll avoid the league’s basement.
Good luck to everyone who has to figure out that zone…
Arizona State Sun Devils
Head coach: Bobby Hurley
Thus far, Hurley has raised the talent level in Tempe but hasn’t delivered with postseason results. Six years in, he’s made the NCAA Tournament twice (both as a “first four” qualifier, meaning they snuck in) and produced countless NBA players. The issue isn’t that Hurley is a poor coach or tactician, he just recruits talented guys who don’t fit well together. But with Remy Martin and Joshua Christopher leaving town, there will be plenty of offensive opportunities opened up.
The sexy name for the Sun Devils is Marcus Bagley, a big 6’8” shooting wing who dealt with injuries as a freshman. Many are high on their two backcourt transfers in Marreon Jackson (18.1 PPG at Toledo) and Jay Heath (14.5 PPG at Boston College). They don’t fix the overarching issues of chemistry and fit with the Sun Devils, though. Five-star freshman big Enoch Boakye could play a big role here this year.
Reel it in, coach Hurley… the wild, wild West approach hasn’t done much through six years.
Stanford Cardinal
Head coach: Jerod Haase
No team in the nation was hit harder by COVID restrictions, not necessarily in terms of games missed by players but by daily roadblocks they had to climb. Now the Cardinal are coming off a mediocre season and lost their four most talented players: lottery pick Ziaire Williams, Oscar da Silva, Washington transfer Daejon Davis and Bryce Wills.
The ball screen motion that Haase capitalized on a few years ago with Davis and Tyrell Terry was built around fantastic counters and guards who could shoot — it was one of the best iterations of ball screen motion in the country.
That said, ball screen motion can be limiting in many ways, including pro development. Spencer Jones and Jaiden Delaire can lead the Cardinal in scoring, but I worry about their lack of backcourt depth and consistent production. Plus, freshman wing Harrison Ingram, with his eyes set on the NBA, doesn’t strike me as a positive creator out of the PNR motion. I believe the backcourt is in solid hands with Michael O’Connell, the sophomore from Blair Academy who I got to see multiple times in high school. He’s really talented and tough, and will catch a ton of folks off guard in the conference.
There’s a team here that can qualify for the NCAA Tournament based on the talent of those core four, and Haase is always a strong defensive coach. I do worry about how the individual talent fits into the system he’s used on offense. A marriage to the ball screen motion might allow Stanford to be leapfrogged by a team or two behind them on this list.
Washington State Cougars
Head coach: Kyle Smith
Coach Smith is already working miracles in Pullman, and he’s our favorite for Pac-12 coach of the year. Smith has simultaneously taken an analytical approach to modernizing their style of play ahead of their competitors and increased his recruiting reach. Pullman is a tough place to recruit (it’s literally on the Idaho line) but he’s done so well, crushing the international market and filling in the gaps with transfers. This year, he finally struck gold with the most talented freshman recruit in school history with Mouhamed Gueye, a raw 6’10” big who can shoot the 3-ball. Together, he and sophomore Efe Abogidi give the Cougars two NBA prospects and the most diverse, interchangeable frontcourt in the Pac-12.
Defensively, the Cougars play a hybrid matchup 2-3 zone that will continue to be difficult with two sizeable bigs in the middle (three with Dishon Jackson). Offensively, the team will go as far as returner Noah Williams will take them. He showed flashes of being a really talented scorer (14.1 PPG) and is heading into his junior season. We also have high expectations for Andrej Jakimovski as a stretch-4 who can log some minutes at the 3. TJ Bamba and South Alabama transfer Michael Flowers (a dynamic shot-maker off the bounce) are linchpins who could lead this team to the NCAA Tournament if up to the challenge.
Bottom line: there’s more talent in Pullman than ever before, and it’s gotten here quickly. Smith’s team is young and blossoming. They’re a dark horse for an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament this year, although are likely a year away from being able to really push for the top of the league.
USC Trojans
Head coach: Andy Enfield
The Trojans lose a lot more than people think. Sure, Evan Mobley was a godsend for them and is the evident departure as a top-three pick. But point guard Tahj Eaddy was an experienced college veteran who did a lot for their backcourt creation. Isaiah Mobley, Evan’s older brother, is back for another year and should have a much larger role now that the younger Mobley has moved on. Expecting Isaiah to be a piece that carries the Trojans offensively is a bit of an overreach.
Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis will likely be counted upon as the team’s top creator. Enfield has always believed in a ballscreen-heavy attack, though options for spacing around Ellis and Mobley aren’t ideal. The Trojans could go with putting Mobley at the 4 and filling the dunker’s spot with Chevez Goodwin, or they could use one of many underachieving wings to play the 4. Drew Peterson is a great shooter and a legitimate weapon, but the Trojans need help. They’ll likely be tall, have the versatile Mobley on the inside to alter shots and play multiple defenses, a staple of theirs the last few years. When it comes down to it, I’m not counting on Enfield to out-coach the rest of the league and add value to a solid yet unspectacular roster.
Colorado Buffaloes
Head coach: Tad Boyle
Coach Boyle has the Buffaloes rolling, with three straight 20-win seasons under his belt. They’ve lost NBA talent each of the last two years in Tyler Bey and McKinley Wright, but are still in a solid position. The frontcourt of Jabari Walker and Evan Battey is a solid one-two punch, and backcourt defender Eli Parquet is an early favorite for Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. Their defense will be formidable once again, as they always are under Boyle with their toughness and high-octane effort.
The Buffs captured lightning in a bottle last year when Wright spearheaded their offense. His loss is a difficult one. Battey and Walker are solid players, but neither are go-to options or create shots for others. Two strong freshmen, 6’7” Quincy Allen and 6’2” KJ Simpson, are the X-factors in Boulder. Should both carve out impactful roles and hold their own against the top teams of the league, the Buffs could create enough offense to scrape by. Walker has to be a great player and show he’s worthy of increased volume and consistency if Colorado is to truly push through to another 20-win season.
Arizona Wildcats
Head coach: Tommy Lloyd
Perhaps it’s an unfair assumption that Lloyd will bring Gonzaga principles and play style with him to Arizona, but if he does, this roster is perfectly crafted to thrive within it. The Zags high-octane offense has included two bigs, elite 3-point shooting and multiple PNR options to break a defense down.
Start with the interior and Azuolas Tubelis is one of the most skilled bigs in the country. More a mid-range shooter than purely from 3, he has unbelievable touch and is really underrated in the open floor. Gonzaga transfer Oumar Ballo and junior seven-footer Christian Koloko can both play the 5 alongside Tubelis to give the Wildcats a two-big look.
Playing the shooter roles will be Bennedict Mathurin, a 6’7” sophomore with a great body coming off a great run for Canada in the FIBA U-19 games, and 6’3” combo Kerr Kriisa, the guy who is vital due to his combination of great passing and off-ball scoring. They can invert their offense by letting 6’7” point wing Dalen Terry create and handle in transition. Terry isn’t a great shooter, so Kriisa’s off-ball expertise becomes vital when Terry is on the floor.
Defensively, the Wildcats have length on the wings and size all around. They aren’t explosive, overly quick or filled with defensive talent. They’ll make up for it with size, scheme (though we don’t yet know what that entails) and simply outscoring opponents. Arizona is overlooked in my opinion and should finish the season as a top-25 group. Lloyd will only make these guys better throughout the year; don’t be surprised if they snag a 6-seed or higher.
Oregon Ducks
Head coach: Dana Altman
No coach in the NCAA is overlooked more than Altman. He wins 20 games every single year, develops guys, recruits high-level talent to Eugene and has the Ducks constantly running one of the nation’s top offenses. The key to their offensive attacks has been balance. While great scorer like Chris Duarte and Payton Pritchard have graced their backcourt the last few years, they routinely have four or more guys averaging double figures. This year, senior 6’5” guard Will Richardson leads the attack, flanked by 6’0” Oklahoma transfer De’Vion Harmon.
The wings are stockpiled in Eugene as well. Eric Williams (10.0 points, 6.0 rebounds) can play multiple positions, and Syracuse transfer Quincy Guerrier (13.7 points, 8.4 rebounds) might be the conference’s most athletic player. This group of four is heavily talented on both ends.
The Ducks can compete for a national championship and become truly elite if they get consistent production at the 5. N’Faly Dante missed last year with a torn ACL, freshman Nate Bittle has a bright future but is raw and sophomore Franck Kepnang oozes defensive upside. Bittle’s skill level as a skinny big man might allow him to play the 4, though it’s far too early to count on that in big moments. If it comes, look out. Dante and Kepnang will patrol the paint adequately: if Kepnang develops into the monster he’s capable of, this team has no flaws. They’ll always shoot it well, run multiple trapping zone defenses to throw opponents off and have the depth to survive an injury or two. They’re a very safe bet and a group that never should be overlooked.
UCLA Bruins
Head coach: Mick Cronin
A Cinderella run to the Final Four and a half-court shot by Jalen Suggs to end their season has many believing this Bruins squad, with almost everyone back from last year, is a potential championship team. The pieces certainly mesh well together, from pass-first guard Tyger Campbell to sharpshooter Johnny Juzang, mismatch nightmare Jaime Jaquez to wing scorer Jules Bernard. Those four all started on the Final Four group from a year ago.
Two major additions make the Bruins the deepest team in the Pac-12, and perhaps the nation. One is grad transfer Myles Johnson from Rutgers. Last year in the Big Ten, the seven-footer averaged 2.4 blocks and 1.1 steals, absurd defensive productivity. The other addition: Peyton Watson, a potential top-ten pick with an insane amount of offensive confidence and the 6’8” frame and athleticism to dominate on the wings.
Guarding their backcourt becomes a challenge. Juzang is always flying around the floor, but switching those actions means leaving Watson and Jaquez to feast on mismatches. Jaquez in particular, who thrives in the low post, will be impossible to cater to if Watson emerges as a primary scorer early. Campbell reads defenses so well and puts guys in a position to succeed.
We haven’t even mentioned Cody Riley, the elite post scorer who is likely to start in front of Johnson, or sharpshooting role players Jake Kyman and David Singleton. This team is deep and stacked with offensive talent. Finally, Mick Cronin has a group that can score competently enough for him to worry about the defense, his calling card. A blueblood like UCLA offers him the chance to get elite scorers and mold them on the other end, meaning we’re seeing the beginning of what could be a long reign atop the conference for the Bruins.