2021-22 Preview: SEC

The toughest conference in America is reloading at the bottom and perhaps the deepest it's ever been

The college basketball season is around the corner and starting before you know it. At this point, rosters are pretty well set, the transfer window is done and teams know who their top options will be. Through our years of scouting and watching far too many college games and clips, and the last four years as a college coach on the recruiting trail, we’ve seen so many of these players come up through the youth and AAU ranks.

Put the NBA Draft aside: what college basketball teams are poised for a big year? We go through the best conferences in America one by one to break down exactly what lies ahead in the 2021-22 season.

Over the last half-decade, the SEC has emerged as the deepest power conference in America and the one with the most pro prospects. The 2021 NBA draft featured seven first-round picks from the SEC, and 12 selections overall. Talent is at an all-time high down south, and the quality of coaches running these programs is a reflection of where the talent is headed.

Gone are the days of a decade ago where John Calipari and Billy Donovan could rule the roost. Now, a group of young upstart coaches (Will Wade, Mike White, Nate Oats) fuse with Hall of Fame-caliber veterans (Calipari, Rick Barnes, Ben Howland) and coaches long thought to be elite at their craft (Buzz Williams, Bruce Pearl, Frank Martin) to give the SEC a level of depth that cannot be rivaled anywhere else.

Predictions:

14. Missouri Tigers

13. Vanderbilt Commodores

12. South Carolina Gamecocks

11. Georgia Bulldogs

10. Mississippi Runnin’ Rebels

9. Texas A&M Aggies

8. Florida Gators

7. Arkansas Razorbacks

6. Mississippi State Bulldogs

5. Auburn Tigers

4. Tennessee Volunteers

3. LSU Tigers

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

1. Kentucky Wildcats

Missouri Tigers

Head coach: Cuonzo Martin

Yeah… the Tigers lost a ton of talent. Their top four from a season ago (Mark Smith, Dru Smith, Xavier Pinson and Jeremiah Tilmon) are all gone, and the 9-seed run they made with an elite defense will be incredibly hard to recapture. Five freshmen join four transfers (three mid-majors and one from Kansas State) to completely reshape this roster. Martin’s collection of talent is a bit undersized, doesn’t have experience down low and will rely heavily on Green Bay transfer Amari Davis to run the offense.

There are some players to like. Returners Kobe Brown and Javon Pickett are built like men, freshman point guard Jarron Coleman is a linebacker playing the 1 and freshman Kaleb Brown checks in at a svelte 265 lbs on the wing. The Tigers are going to be bruisers in the backcourt to make up for the lack of size or presence on the interior. Long-term we really like freshman Sean Durugordon, but this is going to be a tough rebuilding year for the Tigers who lost more than any SEC team in terms of production.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Head coach: Jerry Stackhouse

Is this the year that Stackhouse can finally get out of the cellar? Injuries have disrupted their on-court play while poor comments by Stack to boosters and the media have shaken faith that he’ll be there long-term. Don’t be shocked if this is his final go-round in Nashville as a result.

Luckily for Stackhouse, two excellent NBA prospects are on the floor for him. Scotty Pippen Jr. (20.8 points, 4.9 assists) returns to run the point and is a supremely physical high-volume threat. Liam Robbins, the transfer from Minnesota, joins the fray up front as the team’s center to be a solid pick and roll (or pop) partner with Pippen and a sturdy interior defender. Those two will carry the Commodores, while Trey Thomas and Jordan Wright space the floor for what plans to be a high-octane attack. Stackhouse has an excellent, deep and creative playbook. In a stacked SEC, that’s often not enough to win games, nor enough to overcome his numerous media blunders.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Head coach: Frank Martin

On coaching alone, the Gamecocks should avoid being in this conversation. But Martin has quietly graduated or lost a ton of important players over the last two seasons. The two elder statesmen returning: point guard Jermain Cousinard (10.3 points, 3.2 assists) and athletic forward Keyshawn Bryant (14.4 points). Bryant is a freak of nature on defense and in the open floor but struggles in the half-court. Cousinard will be overextended without AJ Lawson to handle scoring duties.

We know Frank Martin teams will play tough and be solid defensively. I worry about their generation of offense when the game slows down, though. Martin contracted COVID last year and his team’s struggles were evident. Hitting refresh on the roster and getting back down to basics might mean an immediate half-step backwards, but it will have positive long-term effects.

Georgia Bulldogs

Head coach: Tom Crean

We’ve long been critical of Crean but two things stand out to me: he’s an effective recruiter and a guy who is most dangerous when you count him out. This is the ultimate reset button in college hoops: only one player who scored more than 2 points a night (redshirt senior PJ Horne) returns to the roster. It’s easy to push the Bulldogs down to the doldrums as a result, but Crean did a solid job on the transfer market and actually brought in a team with more shooting and a greater theoretical on-court fit than he’s had the last two years.

Wing scorer Jabri Abdul-Rahim (Virginia and the son of NBA legend Shareef) should be the offensive anchor. He’s talented, pretty athletic and shoots the ball well from deep. Point guard Aaron Cook (Gonzaga) will thrive in Crean’s up-tempo system and is ready to finally show what he can do outside the shadow of the National Runners-Up. USC transfer Noah Baumann is the favorite to round out the backcourt. Illinois-Chicago transfer Braelen Bridges is an offense-only big man who should come in and start. The Bulldogs will, quite frankly, suck on defense. But they have more offensive firepower than many think and might avoid a last-place finish based on that alone.

Mississippi Runnin’ Rebels

Head coach: Kermit Davis

Kermit brought in or retains a few pieces that we really like. Nysier Brooks (Miami) is a solid big man who is an excellent rebounder. Jaemyn Brakefield (Duke) is a powerful 4-man that gives them a solid one-two punch down low. 6’1” redshirt senior Jarkell Joiner will likely be their leading scorer, and sophomore combo Matthew Murrell is poised to take a big step offensively. Tiny freshman point guard Daeshun Ruffin is a sparkplug who can really shoot it, but will meet his fair share of defensive challenges.

Under Davis, the Rebels have always been an aggressive and somewhat effective defense. Herein lies the challenge this season: can they maintain that with Ruffin on the floor, or will they need to sacrifice a little bit of that identity in order to score enough points? It’s a unique juxtaposition to place on the plate of a 5’9” freshman point guard, so we’re going to temper our expectations for Ole Miss as a result.

Texas A&M Aggies

Head coach: Buzz Williams

Never sleep on a Buzz Williams-led team. They’re a half-step above the aforementioned programs simply because their coach is a force of personality and an excellent defensive tactician. Landing Duke transfer Henry Coleman and Virginia Tech transfer Tyrece Radford give the Aggies enough offensive firepower and physicality to anchor a unit in the SEC. Hassan Diarra is their top returner, as the 6’2” sophomore guard will step into a larger role.

The Aggies were hurt by the decommitment of St. Joseph’s transfer Jordan Hall, a potential top-20 pick in the upcoming draft. Hall would’ve likely pushed this team a tier higher, but without him they’re low on elite creators. Freshman Manny Obaseki has bundles of talent, and returning upperclassmen Quenton Jackson and Andre Gordon both averaged 8 PPG or more last season. If Marcus Williams (Wyoming) can do a competent job replacing Hall’s production at the point and Coleman can play the 5 in closing lineups, Buzz can get this group to knock on the door of an NCAA Tournament appearance.

Florida Gators

Head coach: Mike White

Coach White is entering his seventh season at the helm, and has seen his team’s win total decrease every year since Year 2 in 2017. He’s brought in some high-level talent (not a ton, but some) and failed to keep it, develop it or win with it. Two of those top-tier talents went to the NBA (Tre Mann and Scottie Lewis) while two transferred (Noah Locke and Omar Payne). The newest name in town is athletic wing Kowacie Reeves, another guy with NBA pedigree. But he needs a ton of work, and White hasn’t consistently proven he can get the most out of elite talents when they come to Gainesville.

The transfers and returners are a solid group. Big man Colin Castleton impressed a season ago (2.3 blocks) as an anchor for this group, while Myreon Jones (Penn State) can really score it. Tyree Appleby is a competent point guard with experience and three other redshirt seniors fill out the rotation. Nobody knows what to expect (if anything) from Keyontae Johnson, their most talented player still recovering from last year’s scary collapse. Johnson was the preseason SEC Player of the Year last year, making him a huge missing link.

Can the Gators make the NCAA Tournament once again? You betcha. There’s enough balance on this roster to get it done. If Johnson and CJ Felder are available for the stretch run, good luck scoring on this Gators frontline. They’d have an identity that is worthy of a tourney team.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Head coach: Eric Musselman

We can count on the Razorbacks to play super fast, shoot a ton of threes and give free reign to their freshmen gunners. While Isaiah Joe and Moses Moody have thrived in that role, Chance Moore is the new freshman in town. Many outlets are split on what his role will be out of the gates, but I’m very high on Moore and think that Musselman sees the bigger picture of continuing to churn out one-and-done caliber players for recruiting purposes.

The difficulty is carving out enough minutes for Moore on a really deep team. “The Transporter” Musselman has done it again, reloading with ready-to-go college vets like point guard Chris Lykes (Miami), Stanley Umude (South Dakota), Au’Diese Toney (Pitt), and Kamani Johnson (Little Rock). All four fit the mold and system Musselman runs.

Centerpieces of this team are sophomore Devontae Davis — a blurringly fast point guard who plays strong defense, sophomore big Jaylin Williams and microwave scoring senior JD Notae. Those three, plus Moore and the four talented transfers, give the Razorbacks a team with enough offensive talent, shooting and depth to compete in the SEC, even without an NBA lottery-level talent.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Head coach: Ben Howland

How? How does Howland recruit this much talent to Starkville? A job that should be perennially towards the bottom, this is the most talented team the Bulldogs have fielded in 15 years easily. 6’3” scoring guard Iverson Molinar is one of the league’s most overlooked players, and is now flanked by highly-touted Michigan State defector Rocket Watts. Sprinkle in Memphis transfer DJ Jeffries and North Carolina transfer Garrison Brooks and they are as talented, physical and polished 1 thru 4 as any team in the country. Brooks and Tolu Smith are perhaps the best one-two frontcourt punch that an SEC team boasts at the 5, and should dominate the glass.

NC State transfer Shakeel Moore can be a lockdown 6th man defender in the backcourt, while stretch-4 Derek Fountain provides much-needed offense for the second unit. Howland’s starting five is among the most talented in the SEC. Depth may catch up to them, but if they stay healthy and can get the combustible elements in the backcourt to coexist, this is a tournament team without hesitation.

Auburn Tigers

Head coach: Bruce Pearl

In our opinion, the SEC is down a half-peg in terms of elite teams this year. Part of that is evidenced by Auburn, a group with a great deal of talent but some ill-fitting pieces. First off, the absence of Allen Flanigan for the entire season is crushing. A 3-and-D wing who is an elite athlete, his production is near impossible to replace. 7’1” sophomore Walker Kessler and 6’10” freshman Jabari Smith come as the highlights for this team. Smith, an up-tempo athlete, wants to play fast while Kessler, a skilled big man who operates inside and out, might need to slow it down.

That juxtaposition makes the Tigers hard for us to bet on. Three undersized backcourt transfers (Wendell Green, Zeb Jasper and KD Johnson) don’t provide a ton in terms of defensive prowess, and Devan Cambridge is a hard guy to trust. There’s a lot of talent on its own in Auburn, certainly enough to make another appearance in March. But a top-25 ranking and a Sweet Sixteen might be elusive unless they can get this group to gel. Pearl is a hell of a coach, so it wouldn’t be shocking if it happens.

Tennessee Volunteers

Head coach: Rick Barnes

How do you evaluate a team with impressive and highly-talented freshmen whose coach is generally slow to let freshmen play heavy minutes?

There’s enough talent for the Vols to push the top ten in the country. Their five main returners alone are worthy of top-25 talent. Santiago Vescovi is an underrated general, Victor Bailey and Justin Powell can score at the 2 and 3, Josiah-Jordan James is an athletic point forward and John Fulkerson anchors the paint for what seems like his fifteenth college season. The ceiling of this team is inherently tied to two freshmen: point guard Kennedy Chandler and 6’10” defender Brandon Huntley-Hatfield. Long-term, Jonas Aidoo is another talented first year but is far too raw and will be behind Fulkerson since the two can’t play together.

Without those two freshmen being trusted, the Vols ceiling is likely in the 4-seed range. Chandler’s emergence would place Vescovi in a combo spot, where his versatility can shine. Huntley-Hatfield as an athletic defender at the 4 unleashes he and JJJ on other SEC teams and wrecks havoc. To me, both are a big if, not necessarily a when, to be trusted. Barnes’ reliance on Davidson motion schemes negates some of Chandler’s best skills and bottles up BHH’s athleticism in the half-court.

Love Barnes, love his program and trust him as a recruiter, but his talent is a strange fit in Knoxville this year.

LSU Tigers

Head coach: Will Wade

Say what you will about Wade’s recruiting tactics, the guy gets dudes. Every year he’s faced with a reload and manages to pull it off. I’m remarkably high on this Tigers team, featuring Adam Miller (Illinois) in the Cam Thomas scoring role and Xavier Pinson (Missouri) as the new Javonte Smart. There’s returning talent — Darius Days (11.6 points, 7.8 rebounds as an ideal stretch-4) and 6’5” Mwani Wilkinson — and a stud freshmen class headlined by Efton Reid (a true 7’0” skilled big) and Justice Williams, a late-addition to the backcourt by reclassing.

Wade isn’t the world’s greatest in-season coach, but there’s so much skill and versatility here (especially from the frontcourt) that it’ll be hard to mess up. Cincinnati Transfer Tari Eason gives them a third big, Shareef O’Neal is still here if they need a fourth, and Alex Fudge is a wild card on the wing. The Tigers will score the crap out of the ball this year. We have just a little more faith in them to climb the rankings and overachieve than most mainstream outlets, but that’s built off a love for Days, Wilkinson, Reid and Miller as incredibly impactful college players.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Head coach: Nate Oats

Oats has revolutionized Alabama’s pace of play and made them far more than just a football school. He’s also generated two consecutive lottery point guards in Kira Lewis Jr. and Josh Primo. Can Brad Davison be the third?

From an NBA scouting perspective, no incoming freshman with one-and-done hype has given me more grief than Davison. At 6’3” as a power guard with elite athleticism and defensive chops, he isn’t a great shooter on high volume, making the fit next to Jahvon Quinerly a strange one. How Oats navigates their backcourt tandem, or how Davison shoots it, will dictate if this is a one-seed once again or they come down to earth. The injury to Texas Tech transfer Nimari Burnett likely means there aren’t many other options in the backcourt.

The Tide will also miss defensive-stopper, point forward and general Swiss Army Knife Herb Jones and elite shooting threat John Petty. Sure, Jaden Shackelford is a really good 2 or 3 at the college level, but Petty and Jones were elite. The Tide will rely on freshman Charles Bediako to anchor the middle in Alex Reese’s absence.

What we’re seeing here is a loss of leadership and experience replaced by talented freshmen who have no choice but to step up. We struggle to bet on those types of teams. Quinerly and Shackelford are elite college starters. Everything else gives slight reason to pause before putting the Tide into an elite tier.

Kentucky Wildcats

Head coach: John Calipari

Welcome back, John. It’s been weird at the top without you. After missing the boat on the constant influx of one-and-done talent that moved the Wildcats into college basketball royalty, this year’s class is so deep and talented that it seems impossible to miss on. TyTy Washington, our favorite guy here, is an elite shooter who can do it on-ball or off. He’ll thrive in Calipari’s offense and is more physically ready than most backcourt freshmen.

Up front, 6’9” Damion Collins and 6’6” freak athlete Bryce Hopkins should bulldoze their way into the rotation, even if it isn’t for major minutes. They’re all too athletic to be stopped and would feast on second units. Cal also brought in a couple of transfers to help: Oscar Tshiebwe (West Virginia) is a massive rebounder and good PNR finisher, while Sahvir Wheeler (Georgia) will be the floor general to distribute in the half-court.

The Wildcats do need more shooting. Davion Mintz returns to fill that role, Iowa transfer CJ Fredrick and Davidson transfer Kellan Grady should be quite competent there as well. Calipari can still call on returners Jacob Toppin and Keion Brooks for minutes whenever he needs. With four elite-caliber shooters to go next to a pass-first point guard and physical or athletic freaks, this has all the makings of an offensive juggernaut. The Wildcats should be a top-five team once again.