2022-23 Big Twelve Preview
A look ahead at the best prospects, teams, and biggest X-Factors lying ahead in the Big Twelve
In order to do prospect scouting the right way, we firmly believe that understanding the schemes and team circumstances that surround each prospect is necessary. Get to know the coaches and what they look to do on both ends. Learn about the teammates so we can contextualize how a prospect’s usage comes to be. Understand opponents to make sure the game-to-game product is better contextualized. Without doing that, our scouting feels rather incomplete and leaving too many variables unaccounted for. In order to nail college scouting, we need to get to know as much about the college landscape as possible.
With that in mind, we’re putting our observations and predictions to the page on every major conference team in college basketball. We’ll discuss their style of play, their holes on the roster, pro prospects, where they might land next to their conference rivals, swing factors to their success this season, and more. Some will see this as a college season preview — and that’s quite alright. What this is intended to be just as clearly, though, is a guide to refer back to for team understanding all season.
Standings Predictions
Kansas
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas State
10. Kansas State Wildcats
Head Coach: Jerome Tang
Record Last Year: 14-17, 9th in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Nae’Qwan Tomlin, Desi Sills, Ismael Massoud, Keyontae Johnson
From the moment he got hired to Manhattan, Jerome Tang has brought an infusion of energy to a dormant major-conference program. Bruce Weber was a hell of a coach and did as good of a job as anyone could do, but there’s a sense of rejuvenation around the Wildcats that Tang has brought. He’s a shrewd recruiter and has made some really smart hires, including Rodney Perry of the local and elite AAU program MoKan Elite.
While we believe those moves will pay off in the long term, the Wildcats lost their best player in Nijel Pack from a below-average team. Tang hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in Desi Sills (Arkansas State), David N’Guessan (Virginia Tech), Cam Carter (Mississippi State), Jerrell Colbert (LSU), Tykei Greene (Stony Brook), and Amayomi Iyiola (Hofstra). Adding Keyontae Johnson from Florida was a nice get, if healthy, because he’s experienced and can be the linchpin of their offensive attack.
Ismael Massoud is a solid returner as a stretch wing, and 5’8” point guard Markquis Nowell is the only other holdover on the roster. They’re a ragtag group, to be sure, with small guards and unproven frontcourt pieces in an unrelenting league. Look out for Nae’Qwan Tomlin — he could be a sleeper draft prospect if he quickly can add polish to his remarkably raw game. Tang’s plan and the system will pay off in the long run, but this isn’t a roster well-stocked for year one.
9. Iowa State Cyclones
Head Coach: TJ Otzelberger
Record Last Year: 22-13, t-7th in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Osun Osunniyi, Jaren Holmes, Hason Ward, Jeremiah Williams, Caleb Grill
A year ago, TJ Otzelberger was heading to Ames for his first year on the job. He kept their star freshman Tyrese Hunter and landed one key transfer in Izaiah Brockington. Nobody saw their ascent to the NCAA Tournament coming, yet the Cyclones were one of the better teams in the Big Twelve throughout the year.
Hunter left for Texas, thus underscoring the struggles of getting and keeping elite talent in Ames, and Brockington is gone. While Otzelberger pivoted towards a (hopefully) more sustainable style by landing some tremendous 2023 recruits, next year’s roster will once again be very transfer-heavy.
The strength of this group is from the interior. Osun Osunniyi (St. Bonaventure) was on draft radars as a fringe prospect a year ago and is a very impactful rim protector. Forward Hason Ward (VCU) is a good two-way player as well. Temple transfer Jeremiah Williams will, unfortunately, miss a lot of time this year due to injury, costing the Cyclones not only one of their most talented players but an experienced guard that they’d rely on. Caleb Grill and Gabe Kalscheur are solid floor spacers, and Aljaz Kunc is a legitimate stretch-4. Another former Bonnie in Jaren Holmes is a really good glue piece that will help in the backcourt — and a steal of a future pro in Europe.
In theory, this team works as a result of those three shooters next to the transfers, so another surprise rise up the Big Twelve wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world. But they did lose their two best players and don’t have as much scoring now that Williams is injured. This could be a slight step back for the Cyclones before a major step forward next year.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers
Head Coach: Bob Huggins
Record Last Year: 16-17, 10th in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Tre Mitchell, Joe Toussaint, Josiah Harris, Seth Wilson
Huggy Bear is a throwback of a coach, and some of the old-school tactics (both on-court and off it) drove some key players away the last few years. Oscar Tshiebwe went to Kentucky and became a National POY contender. Jalen Bridges left to in-league Baylor.
Huggins and staff have embraced the transfer portal and gotten with the times; Josiah Harris and Josiah Davis are the only two freshmen on the roster. The key addition was 6’9” Tre Mitchell, a former UMass standout who clashed with Chris Beard last year at Texas. Mitchell is athletic, can stretch the floor, and is the perfect 4-man for the league. Swing forward Emmitt Matthews (Washington) made the seldom-seen transfer back to WVU, where he began his career.
Other transfers like Joe Toussaint (Iowa), Erik Stevenson (South Carolina) and a large group of JUCO additions will be relied upon to make an early impact. The standout there is Harcum College Mohamed Wague, a 7’0” inside presence that the Mountaineers will rely upon early. If Wague is ready to bang with the best guys in the league, there could be some huge upsets coming their way.
Quietly, this is one of the better transfer groups in the league, if not the nation. Toussaint-Stevenson-Matthews-Mitchell-Wague could easily be their starting five, a brand new group top to bottom. Seth Wilson is an intriguing piece; a physical guard that can really shoot it, but doesn’t have the consistency to be counted upon ahead of the older guys in town. We’d feel better about their team success if there were some returners that we trusted, but it’s definitely a step up from last year’s team.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Head Coach: Mike Boynton
Record Last Year: 15-15, t-5th in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Moussa Cisse, Avery Anderson, Bryce Thompson
After making a huge splash with Cade Cunningham, the Boynton era has failed to sustain its early success. There have been good commits — Moussa Cisse, Bryce Thompson, 2023 big man Brandon Garrison — but a lack of on-court success to show for it. A few solid pieces transferred their way out, but left behind is the team’s best player in Avery Anderson, a really good perimeter defender and solid scorer at the point.
The issue for the Cowboys each of the last two years has been floor spacing: they lack consistent shooting options. Last season, no player who attempted more than ten 3-pointers shot above 33% from deep. Texas State transfer Caleb Asberry (38.7% from 3), Louisiana-Monroe grad transfer Russell Harrison (34.7% from 3), and High Point’s John-Michael Wright (36.3% from 3) should help address some of those shortcomings.
Freshman Quion Williams is a strong addition but is a glue guy and another non-shooter. Anderson, Thompson and Cisse should all be in the starting lineup, and a bounceback year from defensive-minded forward Kalib Boone would be a welcomed sight in Stilwater. It’s a cohesive group with experience together but that lacks the floor spacing to keep up with an up-tempo league. They’re athletic and they’ll defend really well, at least, and if they can find a way to make shots fall, they can push for an NCAA Tournament berth.
6. Oklahoma Sooners
Head Coach: Porter Moser
Record Last Year: 19-16, t-7th in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Grant Sherfield, Otega Oweh, Tanner Groves, Milos Uzan, Benny Schroeder
One thing is for sure: Porter Moser can coach his ass off. His teams are always fundamentally sound, strong on defense and really disciplined on offense. They lacked a rim-protecting presence last year (10th in the league in blocked shots) and struggled to rebound, two areas that likely won’t get addressed while Tanner Groves is still the starting 5-man. He’s an offensive power and a good stretch big, but struggles on the defensive end of the floor.
Perhaps these Sooners will aim to outscore people. Groves and Nevada transfer Grant Sherfield in the pick-and-roll is a hell of a combo, and Sherfield could come in and be the team’s best player from day one. Slashing forward Jalen Hill is the other returning starter who should keep his spot in the rotation.
What happens to the other two spots in the rotation? Freshman Otega Oweh has a ready-made frame and can play off-ball next to Sherfield. He and fellow freshman guard Milos Uzan should be battling for minutes from the outset. Joe Bamisile is the transfer that can come in and get 2-guard minutes right away after a strong year at George Washington.
The Sooners have a hole on the wing that needs to be filled. If the freshmen can go from day one, they can play three guards and blitz teams with pace and perimeter pressure. If 6’7” international freshman Benny Schroeder lives up to the hype that the coaching staff has bestowed upon him, he can find his way into the rotation right away too. This should be another team with a really good offense but not quite enough defensive firepower to consistently win games against the top teams in the league.
5. Texas Longhorns
Head Coach: Chris Beard
Record Last Year: 22-12, 4th in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Dillon Mitchell, Tyrese Hunter, Dylan Disu, Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen, Christian Bishop, Sir’Jabari Rice, Arterio Morris*
There seems to be a pretty large gap in terms of talent between the top five in the league and the bottom five. Texas should not only be an NCAA Tournament team but a top-25 group in the nation. Chris Beard has prioritized talent since arriving in Austin, and he brought in two highly-touted and talented freshmen in Dillon Mitchell and Arterio Morris. While Morris has run into some off-court questions, any potential absence won’t break the Longhorns’ backs: they have experienced scoring guard Marcus Carr, prized Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunter, and talented athlete Sir’Jabari Rice.
Those guys will run the show on offense, with frontcourt floor-spacer Dylan Disu hopefully healthy to keep their attack balanced. Disu struggled with injuries last year but is a legitimate pro prospect down the line. 6’6” athletic swingman Timmy Allen was last year’s leading scorer and is a helpful individual defender. He’s an all-league type of guy.
While the amount of talent is clear and there are multiple guys that can be drafted in 2023, the Longhorns lack a true big man and have a lot of questionable pieces. Morris, Carr and Hunter are talented, but they may not play off of each other well. Disu had injury concerns last year and never looked himself while struggling to stand out offensively in Chris Beard’s disorganized attack. Christian Bishop hasn’t lived up to the hype, and star freshman Dillon Mitchell has a raw game in the half-court.
With such an experienced group, it’s hard to believe that a star freshman will be the X-factor for them. The Longhorns need floor spacing to make their offense work; coach Chris Beard doesn’t provide a ton of structure to his team on that end, so individual talent needs to be combined with enough role-playing floor spacers to work. The talent here is high enough to carry them over the 20-win mark once again.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Head Coach: Mark Adams
Record Last Year: 27-10, 3rd in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Elijah Fisher, Jaylon Tyson, Fardaws Aimaq, Kevin Obanor, Kerwin Walton, De’Vion Harmon
The next two teams on our radar are ones that will be neck-and-neck in the standings and present different ways to go about the same issue. Last year, first-year head coach and longtime assistant Mark Adams proved he was the brains of the organization that led to the ascent of the Red Raiders. Adams, as genuine a dude as you’ll find, has crushed the transfer portal and brought in some really good players. Six of their top seven from last year’s roster are gone, but Adams has quickly reloaded with a dynamic transfer group.
Most contributors on the roster are ones Adams has found through the portal. De’Vion Harmon (Oregon), Kevin Obanor (Oral Roberts; was with TTU last year), Kerwin Walton (North Carolina), Fardaws Aimaq (Utah Valley), Jaylon Tyson (Texas), and D’Maurian Williams (Gardner Webb) all figure to be part of the immediate rotation, with Aimaq and Obanor as the dynamic duo down low. Both can score; Aimaq is great on the interior while also knocking down 43.5% of treys on limit sample. Obanor is the floor-spacer and a pick-and-pop maven. While Aimaq is hurt to start the year, they have a shot-blocking presence behind him in Daniel Batcho. We don’t expect this team to drop off while he misses the first chunk of the season.
Five-star freshman Elijah Fisher is the highest-rated recruit to ever come to Lubbock and should be able to play right away. Harmon is a scoring-minded point guard, Walton more of a floor-spacing combo, and Tyson the high-upside guy. This Red Raiders group has no shortage of guys that can put the ball in the basket, making them really different (on paper) than last year’s size-and-defense units. The Red Raiders can definitely push to the top of the conference this year and should punch another ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
3. TCU Horned Frogs
Head Coach: Jamie Dixon
Record Last Year: 21-13, t-5th in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, Micah Peavy, Eddie Lampkin, Emanuel Miller
On the other end of the roster-building spectrum, TCU head coach Jamie Dixon has performed a modern miracle. Last year, the Horned Frogs had a top-six of Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, Emanuel Miller, Chuck O’Bannon, Eddie Lampkin, and sixth-man Micah Peavy.
All six are back this year.
This team will be a major test of the value of continuity in today’s game. All are upperclassmen, all have experience and experience winning together. The Horned Frogs made the NCAA Tournament and pushed Arizona to the brink in overtime during the second round. None of these guys are legitimate superstars (though Miles is a really damn good point guard and an NBA prospect we covet) but they are all above-average college players. While the transfer portal allows for teams to get old and stay old, the portal doesn’t have space for continuity like this. Returning all the major players from a 20-win team could mean that TCU is primed to make another leap up the standings.
The top departure was shooting specialist Francisco Farabello. He was a valued sniper and movement specialist in that second unit on a team thin on shooting to begin with. Rondel Walker (Oklahoma State) is the new transfer in town to replace Farabello; he’s more than just a shooter, though. Walker is one of the most disruptive perimeter defenders in the country; he’ll play his role incredibly well and fit in right away with this group.
Perhaps freshman guard PJ Haggerty gets some immediate burn and takes some of the creation responsibilities off Miles. This is still an offense that is run predominantly through him, while Lampkin can body unsuspecting big men down low. We have incredibly high expectations for this group and see them as a top-15 team in the nation.
2. Baylor Bears
Head Coach: Scott Drew
Record Last Year: 27-7, t-1st in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Keyonte George, Langston Love, Jalen Bridges, Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer, Jonathan Tchamwa Tachatchoua, Dale Bonner
Baylor has, by my measure, the best backcourt in the country. There are four options to legitimately score the basketball without sacrificing a ton on the defensive end. Keyonte George is the standout here, a top-10 pick in the making and a wired-to-score 6’5” wing. George is athletic with bounce, polished on three levels, incredibly confident and an underrated passer. Langston Love is recovering from an ACL injury that cost him last year. Love can really score it, is super skilled and a fantastic spot-up shooter.
Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer are also talented scorers; they each averaged 13.5 PPG last year, so it’s really hard to talk about them second in this context. Thanks to the departures of Kendall Brown and Jeremy Sochan to the NBA, head coach Scott Drew can play three-guard lineups more often. We’d expect Cryer to come off the bench yet again but still have a positive impact. Even former D2 transfer Dale Bonner is deserving of rotation minutes and can defend his ass off. There’s so much dangerous scoring and guard play here in Baylor.
The losses of Brown and Sochan, as well as Matthew Mayer (transfer to Illinois) make the wing rotation incredibly thin. Two things make up for that. First: transfers into the program. Jalen Bridges (West Virginia) is a long-armed floor-spacer with really good range to the corners. He’ll thrive next to Baylor’s guard play. BYU transfer Caleb Lohner is a 6’8” forward that started 31 games a year ago; he’ll be in the rotation and might push Bridges for a starting spot.
The second area to make up for that: depth at the 5 on defense. Flo Thamba is a fifth-year senior and Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua are back; Thamba started every game last year and Goodluck Jonathan provides a ton of value off the bench on the glass once he gets healthy. If Jonathan can keep adding shooting range to his game, there’s a possibility these guys can play some minutes together. All in all, just a super-talented Bears team that many will have as the favorites to win the conference. They’ve lost some key pieces but have more than enough here to make up for it.
1. Kansas Jayhawks
Head Coach: Bill Self
Record Last Year: 34-6, t-1st in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Gradey Dick, Kevin McCullar, Jalen Wilson, Dajuan Harris, KJ Adams, MJ Rice, Zuby Ejiofor, Zach Clemence, Ernest Udeh
Look, we get it. The Jayhawks lost a lot from their National Championship team a season ago. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s to never doubt Bill Self. Every year, guys who didn’t play the season prior slide into the rotation without many issues. Now that he’s wading into the transfer waters for instant help at positions of need, it may be unrealistic to expect the Jayhawks to take even the slightest step backward.
Jalen Wilson is the returning piece with the most impact. He’s been a valued 4-man (and even small-ball 5) that stretches the floor consistently and has length on defense. He’s a really versatile piece and a player we’re quite fond of. Place him next to 6’6” Kevin McCullar (Texas Tech transfer) and the Jayhawks have two of the more impactful defensive pieces in the nation. McCullar’s inefficient offensive season with the Red Raiders can be attributed to being asked to do far too much. With a simplified role as a shooter, his impact should pop.
Speaking of shooting, the Jayhawks added the top shooting freshman in Gradey Dick to this roster. He’s a movement specialist, has good size at 6’6” and is an underrated finisher. Once again, they’ll be able to light it up from deep, though don’t be surprised if Dick isn’t a starter from day one.
Those perimeter shots only get created if Kansas has an impact at the book ends of the lineup, though. Self isn’t shy about throwing the ball inside, where big men really thrive. The Jayhawks have three freshmen to choose from to replace David McCormack: redshirt freshman Zach Clemence, stocky big Zuby Ejiofor, and the mountainous Ernest Udeh Jr. It’s nice knowing that Self can go super small with Wilson at the 5 if these guys don’t step up, but with the way he teaches bigs, it’s a good bet at least one of them will.
At the point, defender Dajuan Harris is back. He played his role really well last year and should have a similar one. The All-Big Twelve defender can disrupt any opponent’s offense while setting the table for his teammates, and he’s one of the most criminally underrated players in the country. Other freshmen such as MJ Rice and KJ Adams will make an impact on the wings/ forward spots. They could use one more reliable point guard to tighten their depth from top to bottom, but we really buy into the talent on this roster.
All-Big Twelve Awards
Player of the Year: Mike Miles, TCU
Freshman of the Year: Keyonte George, Baylor
Coach of the Year: Jamie Dixon, TCU
First Team:
Mike Miles, TCU
Dajuan Harris, Kansas
Keyonte George, Baylor
Jalen Wilson, Kansas
Moussa Cisse, Oklahoma State
Second Team:
Tyrese Hunter, Texas
Grant Sherfield, Oklahoma
Timmy Allen, Texas
Kevin McCullar, Kansas
Kevin Obanor, Texas Tech