2022-23 Pac-12 Preview
A look ahead at the best prospects, teams, and biggest X-Factors lying ahead in the Pac-12
In order to do prospect scouting the right way, we firmly believe that understanding the schemes and team circumstances that surround each prospect is necessary. Get to know the coaches and what they look to do on both ends. Learn about the teammates so we can contextualize how a prospect’s usage comes to be. Understand opponents to make sure the game-to-game product is better contextualized. Without doing that, our scouting feels rather incomplete and leaving too many variables unaccounted for. In order to nail college scouting, we need to get to know as much about the college landscape as possible.
With that in mind, we’re putting our observations and predictions to the page on every major conference team in college basketball. We’ll discuss their style of play, their holes on the roster, pro prospects, where they might land next to their conference rivals, swing factors to their success this season, and more. Some will see this as a college season preview — and that’s quite alright. What this is intended to be just as clearly, though, is a guide to refer back to for team understanding all season.
Standings Predictions
Arizona
UCLA
Oregon
Colorado
Washington State
Washington
Arizona State
Stanford
USC
Utah
California
Oregon State
12. Oregon State Beavers
Head Coach: Wayne Tinkle
Record Last Year: 3-28, 12th in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Michael Rataj, Glenn Taylor Jr., Christian Wright
After a Cinderella run to the Sweet Sixteen in 2021, last year was… rough. The Wayne Tinkler tinkering of zone defenses that traditionally helps them stay in games was porous, even with Warith Alatishe as an impactful defensive presence. Many from last year’s 3-28 team are moving on. Some (Dashawn Davis and Jarod Lucas) have transferred to different spots. Others (Alatishe, Maurice Calloo, Roman Silva) have ended their collegiate careers.
In one regard, losing your top five scorers and producers from a season ago is a tough pill to swallow no matter the circumstance. In another, Tinkle now has the chance to embrace a youth movement and a blank slate to hit the reset button with. There are six freshmen on this team, with 6’0” guard Jordan Pope and German forward Michael Rataj standing out as guys to potentially carry a heavy load right away. Rataj is a lethal stretch-shooting forward with the ability to put the ball in the hole. Inside or outside, Rataj is really potent. There’s a good amount of size on the interior here with Chol Marial and Rodrigue Andela as frontcourt starters for Rataj to play behind or next to.
Sophomores Glenn Taylor and Georgia transfer Christian Wright figure to fit into the rotation as well; Taylor played a lot as a freshman and shows plenty of skill for his size, while Wright played 22 minutes a game as a freshman in the SEC. The rest of the roster is going to be a patchwork job, and they’ll likely struggle again defensively. At least they’ve added a little more top-end talent with Rataj and should be on their way to winning far more than three games this year. It’s a step in the right direction.
11. California Golden Bears
Head Coach: Mark Fox
Record Last Year: 12-20, 9th in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Devin Askew, Grant Newell
While the Beavers were abysmal last year, Mark Fox’s Golden Bears had a really rough year. Things may not be trending in the right direction there, as they lost their three best players from a season ago in Jordan Shepherd, Grant Anticevich and Andre Kelly. The backcourt should be solid at Cal; Devin Askew (Texas) is on his third team in three years and is struggling to find his footing as a legitimate point guard option. Point guard Joel Brown is back and likely will start once again, meaning Askew commands the second unit.
Jalen Celestine, now a junior, was a revelation late in the year for Cal. Over the final 12 games, he averaged 9.8 points and went bombs away from deep. If he can keep scoring at that pace, he’ll be a good piece next to their playmaking point guards. If the Golden Bears are going to have a puncher’s chance against the top teams in the league, they’ll need one of the freshmen forwards to step up. Grant Newell (IMG) and ND Okafor (NBA Latin Academy) will compete for minutes at the 4 and from a talent perspective will be depended upon.
Down low, senior Kuany Kuany and Lars Theimann will continue their platoon at the 5; neither was particularly impactful last year on offense or on the glass. The Golden Bears struggled to score last year, finishing last in points in Pac-12 play. Losing 38 PPG from three players won’t help matters, especially with only one transfer (a non-shooting point guard) coming in. This could get ugly…
10. Utah Utes
Head Coach: Craig Smith
Record Last Year: 11-20, 11th in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Branden Carlson, Mike Saunders Jr., Ben Carlson
When the Utes hired Craig Smith last year, they knew the first season would be a rough one. 11 wins was their fewest since their first year in the Pac-12, and they were simply undertalented to be playing in the Pac-12. Smith is a really good coach and does a great job at developing talent. If he can find ways to get multiple years with guys, his staff will find a way to rise back to the top half of the league.
It may not happen in year two, though. Talented and undersized point guard Mike Saunders Jr. (Cincinnati) was a good transfer addition to provide a jolt of energy next to the steady hand of Rollie Worster. Saunders is a tad undersized but he’s fairly athletic, really quick and had a decent year for the Bearcats. We like the flier they took on him and Wisconsin transfer Ben Carlson, who shot the ball horribly last year but was an intriguing prospect many moons ago. Marco Anthony is back for his fifth year and was a good physical presence on the wing, and sophomore Lazar Stefanovic is the definition of a 3-point shooting specialist. He simply didn’t make shots as a freshman.
The lone bright spot for the Utes last year was seven-footer Branden Carlson, back for his senior season in 2023 and an All-Conference candidate. He led the team in scoring, hit 31% of his triples and is an adequate rim protector. Everything in Salt Lake goes through him. Freshman Luka Tarlac is an interesting athlete to throw into the mix. They’ll go as far as Branden Carlson and their guard play take them. Gradual growth is what we expect, and that could get the Utes at or above .500.
9. USC Trojans
Head Coach: Andy Enfield
Record Last Year: 26-8, 3rd in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Vince Iwuchukwu, Tre White, Kijani Wright, Boogie Ellis
After losing superstar Evan Mobley, we thought the USC Trojans would take a step backward last year. Instead, they won 26 games and made the NCAA Tournament. We hope they prove us wrong again, but the Trojans lost a hell of a lot from last year’s team — not just a single star player. Isaiah Mobley, Ethan Anderson, Max Agbonkpolo and Chevez Goodwin are all gone, leaving Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson as the only guys back who scored 5.0 PPG. Reese Dixon-Waters was solid as a freshman and could thrive in a larger role.
A lot of pressure will be lumped on Ellis and Peterson to lead the scoring attack for the Trojans this year. There’s a giant elephant in the room here: touted 5-star freshman Vince Iwuchukwu may not play this year after suffering what is described as a cardiac event this summer. Enfield’s teams have long been reliant on big man play and having a presence on the interior defensively. Without Iwuchukwu, it’s really hard to rely on these Trojans.
On their own, we also like 6’7” freshman Tre White and 6’9” freshman Kijani Wright. Wright doesn’t score it, but is an elite rebounder and is physically ready from day one. White is a good athlete who can fall in love with the mid-range. If we could sum up this team, it would be this: the tools are there, but there are a lot of things that have to go right for them to win 20 games. Ellis and Peterson can carry them a decent amount, though in the NCAA Tournament they ran into issues against really quick teams with good guard play. Unfortunately, this just feels a little bit like a reloading year in Los Angeles.
8. Stanford Cardinal
Head Coach: Jerod Haase
Record Last Year: 12-20, 9th in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Harrison Ingram, Spencer Jones, Ryan Agarwal
If you’re sensing a theme, it’s that the bottom tier of the Pac-12 has been pretty rough of late. Of the teams at the bottom last year, Stanford seems to have the most continuity and the best individual talent in Harrison Ingram, a legit one-and-done threat a season ago that decided to come back to school. Ingram, a sturdy 6’8” defender, isn’t an elite athlete and has a slow first step but is incredibly strong and cerebral. That allows him to run the offense inside or out — from the pick-and-roll or mismatch posts. Ingram came back to Stanford to improve his jumper and hopefully become a first-round pick.
The Cardinal aren’t devoid of talent other than Ingram. Spencer Jones, the team’s leading scorer from last year, is a 6’7” mismatch wing that pairs well with Ingram. Because they play through those two a lot, 6’2” Michael O’Connell can play the point and be more of an off-ball threat, though it’s possible Isa Silva pushes him for minutes. Brandon Angel, another 6’8” multi-level scorer, figured to play an important role this year, too. He and Davidson transfer Michael Jones will provide valuable floor spacing.
Maxime Raynaud and James Keefe will give the Cardinal some size down low. The Cardinal don’t lose a whole lot and should be better just by continuity alone. Most importantly, they have a ton of size — multiple talented, versatile wings that allow them to play an unorthodox style. Freshmen Jaylen Thompson and Ryan Agarwal fit that mold as well; we’d love to see one or both contribute sooner than later. We like this team, though we’ve liked Stanford teams from a talent perspective the last few years and it just hasn’t clicked. Fool me twice…
7. Arizona State Sun Devils
Head Coach: Bobby Hurley
Record Last Year: 14-17, 8th in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Frankie Collins, Marcus Bagley, Devan Cambridge, DJ Horne, Enoch Boyake, Desmond Cambridge
We’ve seen talented teams come into Tempe in the past and fizzle out a bit. The ‘your turn, my turn’ approach to offense has been frustrating to watch, but Coach Hurley has preferred having multiple handlers. Frankie Collins is a great pickup on the transfer portal; he struggles to shoot it but with the ball in his hands, he can make a lot of great things happen. DJ Horne is a talented scorer; both guards are smaller and prefer the ball in their hands, but Horne has a track record of 3-point shooting success that allows him to play off-ball when necessary.
Surrounding them is (hopefully) healthy Marcus Bagley, a guy once thought of as a first-round pick but hasn’t been able to stay on the floor. That’s a fantastic one-two punch offensively. Devan and Desmond Cambridge have been wildly impactful at their previous stops, and the brothers will now play together for Desmond’s final year of eligibility. Desmond is a polished scorer with shooting range, while Devan can defend on the wing. Former Ohio State transfer Luther Muhammad will be back for minutes,
Nevada transfer Warren Washington is likely going to start at the 5, a major position of need. Alonzo Gaffney started 24 games last year but an upgrade to Washington would be wise. Enoch Boyake has potential, too. This is a sneakily deep team. Hurley has accumulated talent and tends to be a bit of a minimalist, getting out of the way and letting the players go. While there’s depth everywhere, there isn’t star talent anywhere. A tournament run wouldn’t be a surprise, nor would another year with fewer than 15 wins.
6. Washington Huskies
Head Coach: Mike Hopkins
Record Last Year: 17-15, t-5th in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Noah Williams, Keion Brooks, Franck Kepnang, Jackson Grant
Ahh, yes. The sleeping giant in college basketball. After hitting the recruiting trail hard and having success with pro prospects as soon as he got the job, the well has been dry the last few years for Washington. Hopkins has pivoted to the transfer portal, and the talent he’s found come in with a chip on their shoulder. Franck Kepnang (Oregon) and Keion Brooks (Kentucky) are former five-star talents that simply haven’t dominated at the college level but have been dependable contributors. Playing in Hopkins’ 2-3 zone, the seven-footer Kepnang may be due for a breakout year as a rim protector.
Scoring wing Jamal Bey is back for another ride on what’s been a rollercoaster of a career, and this year he won’t be sharing reps with the ultra-confident Terrell Brown Jr. Bey has all the tools but hasn’t been able to harness them consistently. He and Brooks are a toolsy pairing on the wings; if one of them hits, they’re making a push for the NCAA Tournament.
There’s talent throughout the roster, too. 6’10” sophomore Jackson Grant is a former McDonald’s All-American. Shooting wing Cole Bajema deserves a spot in the rotation and can be hidden more in their zone. PJ Fuller provides more wing depth. Washington State transfer Noah Williams is a really good point guard with proven experience in the league. The Huskies will be big, pivoting back to that zone full-time and using their length to bother teams. If they can replace the offensive production that leaves with Terrell Brown (21 PPG last year) with Williams’ playmaking and shot-making around him, this will be an above-average year for the Huskies.
5. Washington State Cougars
Head Coach: Kyle Smith
Record Last Year: 22-15, t-5th in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Mouhamed Gueye, Koumany Houinsou, Mael Crespin, Justin Powell, Andrej Jakimovski
Kyle Smith can coach his ass off and has done a really good job understanding what barrels he should tap on the recruiting trail. It’s so hard to do justice to just how hard it is to win 20 games in Pulman; Smith did it last year and won double-digit league games for the first time since the Tony Bennett era. Four major talents on that team (Noah Williams, Michael Flowers, Tyrell Roberts and Efe Abogidi) are gone, but Mouhamed Gueye is a uniquely talented big with first-team all-conference potential. He’s legitimately on NBA radars and has athleticism with solid rim protection. He’s really raw and needs growth, but a major step forward could see him grow into a Pac-12 superstar.
Outside of Gueye, the rising junior class is a supremely talented one. TJ Bamba is an effective wing, Dishon Jackson is a good backup big, and Andrej Jakimovski is a stretch-four and lethal shooter who is the perfect pairing next to Gueye. Smith may get ballsy and play Jakimovski, Jackson, and Gueye together. Freshman Mael Crespin is a 6’10” skilled big with a modern game; he’s got major pro potential and could form a unique two-big lineup with Gueye. The frontcourt and wings are set, but the backcourt was fairly bare after so many departures.
Enter Smith’s latest magic tricks. First is Tennessee transfer Justin Powell (at Auburn before that) has hopped around looking for the right home and has been a really good 3-point shooter at every stop. He’s a big playmaking guard and will thrive in this system. The other is late-commit from France Koumany Houinsou, a 6’6” multipositional defender with a high IQ. He’s still developing as a shooter and has an average first step. One of Jabe Mullins (Saint Mary’s), Myles Rice (redshirt freshman) or Dylan Darling (true freshman) will likely have to step up — that’s a lot of youth in the backcourt, making it hard to firmly entrench them as an NCAA Tournament team.
4. Colorado Buffaloes
Head Coach: Tad Boyle
Record Last Year: 21-12, 4th in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Quincy Allen, KJ Simpson, Lawson Lovering, J’Vonne Hadley, Tristan da Silva
Infinite respect for Tad Boyle and the job he does at Colorado. Boyle consistently identifies good talent and uses them correctly, giving the Buffaloes a fighting chance in a major conference league by always finding diamonds in the rough. Sophomore Lawson Lovering is the only former top-75 recruit on the roster. The true 7’0” behemoth had his struggles as a freshman, but that’s to be expected with the massive jump in competition from high school to college he faced. He and 7’0” freshman Joe Hurlburt are the future of the frontcourt, though they need to give the team something right away.
The reason for that? The rest of the roster is pretty solid. 6’9” junior Tristan da Silva and 6’8” redshirt freshman Quincy Allen are a fantastic pairing of skill (da Silva) and athleticism (Allen) that can really help this team right away. We’ve been tracking Allen as a former DMV kid for a long time; he can definitely jump in and help right away. J’Vonne Hadley is a JUCO transfer with legitimate scoring ability on the interior as an undersized 6’6” forward. That’s a lot of solid options for Boyle to lean on.
KJ Simpson is the guy they’ll give the keys to offensively, though. Simpson came off the bench as a freshman and was sturdy but really finished the year on a high note: 9.6 points and 2.3 assists per game over his final nine. The shot needs to fall, but he’s a really good creator for others and a true floor general in line for a breakout year. Grad transfers Ethan Wright (Princeton) and Jalen Gabbidon (Yale) will add depth next to Nique Clifford, who started 17 games a year ago. We’d expect Wright to start at the 2-guard spot. No superstars, nothing overly sexy about this group, but a few good transfers to bolster the backcourt with legitimate wing depth makes the Buffaloes a team to watch as they look for their fifth 20-win season in a row. Simpson has all-league potential and will be counted on to lead them there.
3. Oregon Ducks
Head Coach: Dana Altman
Record Last Year: 20-15, t-5th in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Kel’el Ware, Will Richardson, Quincy Guerrier, N’Faly Dante, Nate Bittle, Jermaine Cousinard
Quick trivia question. 4 programs have won 20 games for each of the last ten seasons: Belmont, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Oregon.
What Dana Altman has done from a consistency standpoint doesn’t get discussed enough. He brings in top recruits, retains some strong multi-year guys and has started to figure out this transfer market thing. Getting 6’5” scoring guard Will Richardson back really helps their chances of making a run this season. Richardson is a smooth player that can play on-ball or off-ball. Add in Jermaine Cousinard (South Carolina) and Keeshawn Barthelemy (Colorado) and there’s experience and firepower in the backcourt. It’s about balance with this group, as none of them are likely to go out there and take over a game, though it’s unlikely any will have a night where they don’t show up.
The real strength of this team is in their frontcourt. Top-ten freshman commit Kel’el Ware is a 7’0” wing that loves to score it, can hit some step-backs and isolation shots, and has fluidity off the bounce. He’s a good athlete and should play more of the 4 than the 5, but he figures to be in contention for a lottery pick next year as well as Freshman of the Year in the league. Next to him is fellow stretch big Nate Bittle and incumbent starter N’Faly Dante, a solid roll man and rim protector whose best impact comes on the glass. That’s a huge and impactful three-man rotation. Add in Quincy Guerrier, who started every game at the 4, and the amount of size and impact the Ducks have will allow them to outmatch every team they face.
We can see them closing with a lineup of Cousinard-Richardson-Guerrier-Ware-Dante and straight up locking people down while having enough scoring firepower to run away with games. Senior Rivaldo Soares helps as a spot-up shooter, and another freshman or transfer can contribute to round out the eight-man rotation. Don’t sleep on the Ducks! They have Top-25 potential.
2. UCLA Bruins
Head Coach: Mick Cronin
Record Last Year: 27-8, 2nd in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Amari Bailey, Adem Bona, Jaime Jaquez, Abramo Canka, Tyger Campbell, Dylan Andrews, Jaylen Clark
Well, there’s certainly talent here! Mick Cronin has revitalized the UCLA basketball program in a major way, landing top recruit after top recruit and keeping some talented upperclassmen around. Johnny Juzang, Jules Bernard and Cody Riley have all departed, changing the flavor of this group from an experienced one to a mesh of upperclassmen and newbies. Jaime Jaquez returns and should be a candidate for National Player of the Year. He’s a polished scorer, intelligent defender and walking mismatch. Cronin has committed to playing a rather isolation-heavy style around Jaquez, so we should see him take centerstage on a nightly basis.
The backcourt for the Bruins reflects that old and young balance. Tyger Campbell, the incumbent starter at the point, took a huge step forward last year by shooting 41% from 3. The combination of shot-making and dime-dropping is rare and incredibly valued. Freshman Dylan Andrews is going to learn a ton from Campbell and may be a good enough shooter for them to play side-by-side. 6’5” wing Jaylen Clark and 6’5” freshmen Amari Bailey will play the off-guard spots most of the time. Bailey is thought to be an impressive one-and-done prospect; he could easily end up in the lottery or needing an additional year in college. Either way, this is a talented four-man group, with fifth-year David Singleton also likely punching a spot in the rotation.
Next to Jaquez in the frontcourt, the Bruins bring the youth. 6’10” freshmen Adem Bona has a clear path to start at center. He’s really mobile and athletic, can handle a bit with flashes of tantalizing skill, and is a solid enough defender. Freshmen big men walking into championship-caliber teams can always be scary from a defensive perspective. His success will likely determine UCLA’s ceiling and his draft stock. Tall wing Abramo Canka will swing between the 3 and the 4, likely coming off the bench. Canka is immensely talented and belongs on NBA radars.
There are plenty of big bodies to provide depth and steady impact. Mac Etienne is a massive body recovering from an injury, Kenneth Nwuba is a redshirt senior who has been with the program for years, and there’s still some intrigue in going super small and playing Jaquez at the 5. This is a talented team, and one many will predict to win the league outright. How deep into March they push has a direct correlation to how ready the freshmen are to contribute. They’ll need two of them (at least) to become a top-15 team.
1. Arizona Wildcats
Head Coach: Tommy Lloyd
Record Last Year: 33-4, 1st in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Henri Veesaar, Courtney Ramey, Kerr Kriisa, Azuolas Tubelis, Adama Bal, Pelle Larsson, Oumar Ballo, Kylan Boswell, Filip Borovicanin
Year one of the Tommy Lloyd era was a success in ways that nobody could have predicted. 33 wins, a top-ten pick, and really dominant runs through the conference. Lloyd pretty much copy-and-pasted many Gonzaga principles, giving us the faith that he’ll be a bit of a systems coach. As long as he recruits strong talent and has depth, the Wildcats can thrive even without top-tier superstar prospects.
So while, on paper, Arizona takes a step back in the talent department after losing Bennedict Mathurin, Dalen Terry and Christian Koloko, they leave behind enough depth and experience to continue to win games. Kerr Kriisa is the ideal point guard for this offense. He’s a sturdy pick-and-roll creator, a good movement and off-ball shooter, and gets almost all of his offense from behind the 3-point line. Texas transfer and grad senior Courtney Ramey has all those same traits with a little more scoring pop off the bounce. Adding a four-year starter to this backcourt ensures they won’t experience much of a drop-off.
The Gonzaga motion offense works when there are two bigs that can thrive inside and out. Azuolas Tubelis is the offensive-minded big, a lefty mismatch that loves the blocks, has a smooth mid-range jumper and is a tremendous passer off the short roll or in hi-lo situations. Defense has been a bit of a concern for him, making the role of Oumar Ballo as the starting center all the more vital. Ballo is great laterally for a seven-footer and could have a really big year.
At the 3, Pelle Larsson is going to start and is a sleeper draft prospect. He’s a really good shooting wing that will fill the role of movement threat and is building off a strong finish to last year and international play this summer. Adama Bal should get more opportunities to do the same as a sophomore; he was incredibly efficient in low usage last year. 6’6” transfer from Campbell Cedric Henderson adds depth to that wing unit, and 6’10” freshmen Henri Veesaar is our favorite pro prospect of the group. I’m not sure how many minutes he’ll command right away behind Tubelis, but he’s a phenomenally skilled stretch big with a bright future. Point guard Kylan Boswell reclassed to join this Arizona team early, too; he’s a fair bet to contribute off the bench behind Ramey. The Wildcats won’t jump out as the most top-heavy group in America, but there’s more depth here than meets the eye and a system that properly utilizes every ounce of it.
All-Pac-12 Awards
Player of the Year: Jaime Jaquez, UCLA
Freshman of the Year: Kel’el Ware, Oregon
Coach of the Year: Tad Boyle, Colorado
First Team:
Courtney Ramey, Arizona
Will Richardson, Oregon
Harrison Ingram, Stanford
Jaime Jaquez, UCLA
Kel’el Ware, Oregon
Second Team:
Noah Williams, Washington
Tyger Campbell, UCLA
Pelle Larsson, Arizona
Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona
Branden Carlson, Utah