2022-23 Preview: Top 25 (Pt. 1)
We start our preseason top-25 series by looking at those teams just scraping into elite territory nationally
While so much of what we do here at The Box and One is geared toward individual prospect scouting, basketball is still a team game. Winning matters, both as a measure of individual impact and in understanding which team constructs are indicative of role emulation at the next level.
College basketball is just dang fun, man. There are tons of different styles at play, kids learning tons throughout the season, passion from the fanbases that is rarely seen at other levels, and the always-appealing culmination of the season in March Madness. We’re so excited for the season to begin… which is why we’ve been so in-depth at previewing this college season.
Here is Part One of our breakdown of our preseason top-25, looking at the best teams in the nation and where we believe they’ll end up at the conclusion of the regular season.
25. Indiana Hoosiers
Head Coach: Mike Woodson
Record Last Year: 21-14, 9th in Big Ten
Prospects to Watch: Jalen Hood-Schifino, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Malik Reneau, Tamar Bates, Xavier Johnson, Trey Galloway, Jordan Geronimo, Miller Kopp
We aren’t the only ones going out on a limb for the Indiana Hoosiers this year, a trendy pick to shoot up the standings thanks to the return of big man Trayce Jackson-Davis. TJD has been a proven double-double at the college level and averaged 18.3 points and 8.1 boards last year. He isn’t our favorite pro prospect due to the lack of a jumper and left-hand-dominant nature of his scoring, but he knows his spots well and has the combination of size and athleticism that allows him to dominate on a college court. Partnering with him for the third-straight year in the frontcourt is Race Thompson, an athletic defender that doesn’t get the attention he deserves.
The frontcourt fit of those two has always been a tad clunky on offense, as neither are great shooters or playmakers, but they’re athletic, crush the boards and defend. Miller Kopp is back as a big wing shooter (best served at the 4) and Jordan Geronimo is somehow a junior now, demonstrating elite flashes athletically in his underclassman years. Those two will need to hold off freshman Malik Reneau for minutes, though a year of learning from all those seniors could bear major results long-term for the Montverde product.
Guard play was always suspect for the Hoosiers, especially after a few younger guards haven’t panned out offensively. Xavier Johnson (12.2 PPG, 5.1 APG) is back as their experienced head at the point, though he can be a tad overconfident at times. Trey Galloway will continue to defend and do all the dirty work that makes him a fan favorite, too. Galloway’s minutes will likely be determined by the ability of Indiana’s two most talented guards, freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino and sophomore Tamar Bates, to handle starting and high-caliber roles right away. At 6’6” and 6’5”, they have enough size to play the 2 and the 3 in the starting unit if they earn it, pushing Galloway and Kopp to the bench and helping space/ modernize the Hoosiers offense.
We’re big believers in Hood-Schifino and think he could emerge by the end of the season as Indiana’s best #2 option behind TJD. The story for the Hoosiers is going to be outside shooting, though. They shot only 31.9% from deep in Big Ten action, and besides Miller Kopp and Xavier Johnson, no returner shot above that mark individually. The frontcourt requires spacing, Hood-Schifino has been somewhat questionable with his range in the past, Galloway’s wrist issues have curtailed his jumper, Bates was under 30%, and former Indiana Mr. Basketball Anthony Leal isn’t rotation-worthy. We absolutely love the talent, although the Achilles heel is already revealing itself in Bloomington, preventing them from getting much higher on our preseason list.
24. Florida Gators
Head Coach: Todd Golden
Record Last Year: 20-14, t-5th in SEC
Prospects to Watch: Kowacie Reeves, Will Richard, Kyle Lofton, Alex Fudge, Colin Castleton, Myreon Jones
Big Todd Golden guy right here. Huge. What a shrewd hire by the Gators, as Golden is an up-and-comer that can develop talent, identify and use analytics wisely, and run a hell of an offense. He hit the ground running in Gainesville, bringing in three priority transfers in Kyle Lofton (St. Bonaventure), Alex Fudge (LSU) and Will Richard (Belmont). All three figure to be major parts of the Gators offense right away.
The Florida backcourt, led by Lofton and fifth-year Myreon Jones, has a great deal of experience and two guys that can play off of each other well. Jones didn’t play as well last year as he did previously at Penn State, but he is a proven shooter whose numbers can easily rebound. The 6’5” Richard can play the 2 or the 3, had a exceptional freshman year for Belmont, and is a guy we expect to be a mainstay in the starting lineup for the Gators.
Much of Richard’s best position will be determined by how many minutes really belong to Alex Fudge and Kowacie Reeves. Both are insanely talented wings entering their sophomore years. We expect Reeves to have a breakout year and love the flashes we saw from him a season ago. Fudge, on the other hand, is a legitimate 4-man and slasher/ finisher best near the basket. He’s a tremendous rebounder and can do some of the dirty work for this team while athletically standing out. If both of these guys are able to log 25 minutes or more a night and be mainstays in the lineup, Golden will have a stacked roster. Colin Castleton is the most dependable big outside of Lexington in the league, CJ Felder is a good backup forward, and Jason Jitoboh should take a step forward as the backup 5. Most of this hinges on Fudge and Reeves taking a big leap, but this is a tournament team hiding in plain sight.
23. Michigan State Spartans
Head Coach: Tom Izzo
Record Last Year: 23-13, t-7th in Big Ten
Prospects to Watch: AJ Hoggard, Jaden Akins, Jaxon Kohler, Tyson Walker, Pierre Brooks, Tre Holloman, Joey Hauser
There’s a competitive advantage to having a world-class head coach that cannot be overlooked. Tom Izzo zaps every ounce of potential out of his group in a way that helps them win games, and very rarely do his one-and-done prospects turn into duds. After a somewhat disappointing year with Max Christie in that role, Izzo is giving himself a year off before the major freshman class of Jeremy Fears and Xavier Booker come to East Lansing.
The group to tide Spartan fans over until then isn’t any slouch and is filled with experience. The backcourt features two seasoned guards in Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard; Hoggard is the romanticized pure point guard that facilitates and defends but doesn’t shoot, while Walker is wired as more of a scorer. Seniors Malik Hall and Joey Hauser are a good frontcourt ying and yang, while raw big man Mady Sissoko will be expected to provide at least rotational minutes at the 5.
If the Spartans make an assault on the top spot in the league, it will be because they get a great deal of help from their young guys. Freshman big Jaxon Kohler will have hopes of starting from his first moment on campus, and at 6’9” and 250 pounds, it will be about his skill and defense, not his physical readiness. Izzo added backcourt depth with Tre Holloman, who may end up being the most talented guard on the roster and force his way into the starting unit as a much-needed scorer.
All eyes are on sophomore Jaden Akins, though. He earned his fair share of fans last season in a support role and may need to be the number-one option moving forward. He’s a 6’4” lefty, shoots it well, is a smooth athlete and gives maximum effort on the defensive end. Akins and Hoggard will be tough to get separation on in the backcourt, easing the burden on a somewhat uncertain frontcourt defensively. The depth in East Lansing is impressive, and with an injection of some young players as they earn it, the Spartans should be in the top 25 for most of the year.
22. Ohio State Buckeyes
Head Coach: Chris Holtmann
Record Last Year: 20-12, t-4th in Big Ten
Prospects to Watch: Justice Sueing, Isaac Likekele, Brice Sensabaugh, Felix Okpara, Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle, Zed Key
The following statement is one we do not take lightly: Chris Holtmann ran the best practice I’ve ever seen in my life. He’s organized, a great teacher, trusts his staff, and really does a great job at keeping everything relevant to their functional offense and defense. The Buckeyes lose two major pieces in EJ Liddell and Malaki Branham, the main cogs in a wheel that only spun out 20 wins last season. So why are we betting on the Buckeyes yet again?
Partially responsible is our faith in Holtmann, who has made the NCAA Tournament every year he’s been a head coach at the major college level. Another reason we’re in: the experienced players on the team. Isaac Likekele (Oklahoma State transfer) is a gritty, big slashing guard with great defensive intensity. Justice Sueing missed all but two games last year due to injury; his return should spark the Buckeyes frontline next to experienced center Zed Key. Tanner Holden (Wright State) averaged 20 PPG last year, making him one of the most prized transfers on the market. Sean McNeil (West Virginia) is a good shooter and brings plenty of experience as well. The Buckeyes did see two NBA players and several other seniors move on, but the experienced guys on the current roster are plenty capable.
We also think this is a really good freshman class for Holtmann, and not just in the sense that it delivers one really good prospect. Bruce Thornton is capable of starting from day one in the backcourt, moving Likekele and Holden to the wings in their more natural spots. Brice Sensabaugh is a natural scorer at the wing; if he pushes Holden for minutes, the Buckeyes win long-term. With a year of working behind Key, MoKan elite big man Felix Okpara can become the next PNR force with rim protection on the other end. Roddy Gayle is a top-50 recruit as well and is a long-armed shooter with defensive upside.
There’s just so much depth on this team. Without including the raw but large Okpara, the Buckeyes can roll nine deep: Thornton, Likekele, Holden, Sueing, Key, McNeil, Sensabaugh, Towns, Gayle. This is the best group of youngsters the Holtmann has brought in and a really good group of transfers, too. We’re feeling the vibes in Columbus.
21. Villanova Wildcats
Head Coach: Kyle Neptune
Record Last Year: 30-8, 2nd in Big East
Prospects to Watch: Cam Whitmore, Brandon Slater, Eric Dixon, Mark Armstrong, Trey Patterson, Justin Moore, Jordan Longino, Nnanna Njoku
The biggest news in the Big East this year was without a doubt the retirement of Jay Wright, and that move sent ripple waves throughout the conference and the nation. Wright leaves behind a talented team in many regards; they rarely lose players to transfer and keep a healthy stable of upperclassmen who have gone through their system. Add to that the most talented incoming freshman that the Wildcats have gotten in a long time in Cam Whitmore and I’d say that’s a pretty good first group for Kyle Neptune to work with.
The losses of Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels will be large for the team at two important positions, and the experienced guard Justin Moore is unlikely to play as he recovers from an Achilles tear. While Whitmore is athletically imposing and an elite finisher, he’ll need good guard play to create easy buckets early on. Big man Eric Dixon showed inside and outside ability; he was 17-35 from 3 last year and was an impactful mismatch option against legitimate big men. Brandon Slater (8.5 PPG) and Caleb Daniels (10.3 PPG) bring experience to the off-guard/ wing spots.
Filling in at the point for Gillespie will be huge; while Gillespie was a shooter more than a pure driver, his poise and leadership helped a lot. Chris Arcidiacono is much more of a backup and game manager than a threat to be counted upon for extended minutes, and youngsters Mark Armstrong and Jordan Longino are more combo guards than pure points. Perhaps that just opens the door up to play through Whitmore in late-clock situations.
This is a pretty good team without a doubt, but the loss of Moore to take the reigns in the backcourt looms large, as does Whitmore’s absence early in the year. We expect solid years from backups Trey Patterson and Nnanna Njoku to keep the depth really strong for this team, and there’s enough firepower to win games by committee. This is a fantastic group to start with for new head coach Kyle Neptune.
20. Auburn Tigers
Head Coach: Bruce Pearl
Record Last Year: 28-6, 1st in SEC
Prospects to Watch: Yohan Traore, KD Johnson, Allen Flanigan, Wendell Green, Chance Westry, Johni Broome
If you are one to drink the Bruce Pearl kool-aid, this team may not be that much of a step back from last year’s group that got up to #1 in the country at one point. Sure, the talented Jabari Smith (3rd overall pick) and impactful rim protector Walker Kessler were a massive part of that success, but Pearl has already gone and restocked the frontcourt with Yohan Traore and Johni Broome, dollar store versions of the successful tandem. Add in Dylan Cardwell and there’s enough talent and depth down low to be alright.
The guard group remains intact, and to us, that was one of the underrated and unsung heroes of their season. KD Johnson is a stud, Wendell Green a terrific passer, and Allen Flanigan is an effective wing defender. 6’8” 4-man Jaylin Williams can move into the starting lineup if necessary. Broome can be the shot blocker in their system, while Traore is more of a stretch shooter with a tremendous amount of offensive skills. Sprinkle in the defensive menace that Chance Westry can be and the Tigers are as talented as ever.
Last year’s team was successful because they had good guard play on offense, a generational college shooter at the 4 and one of the best rim protectors of all time. That model for success can win from a blueprint standpoint, though any team is only as good as their pieces. I think we’re going to see a big year from KD Johnson that opens many eyes to just how good he is, and the Tigers still win 20 games. Elite? Not anymore. Really good? Absolutely.