2022-23 Preview: Top 25 (Pt. 2)
The best mid-majors combine with some title hopefuls as we detail teams 19-13 on our preseason top-25
While so much of what we do here at The Box and One is geared toward individual prospect scouting, basketball is still a team game. Winning matters, both as a measure of individual impact and in understanding which team constructs are indicative of role emulation at the next level.
College basketball is just dang fun, man. There are tons of different styles at play, kids learning tons throughout the season, passion from the fanbases that is rarely seen at other levels, and the always-appealing culmination of the season in March Madness. We’re so excited for the season to begin… which is why we’ve been so in-depth at previewing this college season.
Here is Part Two of our breakdown of our preseason top-25, looking at the best teams in the nation and where we believe they’ll end up at the conclusion of the regular season.
19. Wyoming Cowboys
Head Coach: Jeff Linder
Record Last Year: 25-9, 4th in Mountain West
Prospects to Watch: Max Agbonkpolo, Graham Ike, Ethan Anderson, Jake Kyman, Hunter Maldonado
After winning 25 games and pushing Indiana in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, Jeff Linder wasn’t satisfied. Sure, big man Graham Ike is one of the best players they’ve had since Theo Ratliff, and by retaining him, Linder knew he needed to boost their resume. The MWC was seeing a bit of a changing of the guard; Boise State and Utah State were coming back down to earth, Colorado State lost David Roddy to the NBA, and it was the Cowboys’ time to take the league by storm.
Ike is a great back-to-basket scorer that commands post-ups all the time. Big man Max Agbonkpolo is 6’8” shooter (in theory; only 28% last year) with athletic and defensive tools to be the ideal partner next to Ike. 6’7” guard Hunter Maldonado is back to be their top perimeter option, while USC transfer Ethan Anderson provides a jolt of speed and playmaking at the point. UCLA transfer Jake Kyman is a shooting specialist to space the floor around all these pieces.
While the three transfers help add depth and important skills to the table, the Cowboys have some really good returners that could fend them off. 6’4” guard Xavier DuSell really caught our eye in a few viewings last year. He and 6’8” forward Jeremiah Oden started 20 games or more last year, while swingman Brendan Wenzel played over 20 minutes a game. This is one of the deepest mid-major teams in the country, will likely finish ranked in or just outside the top-25, and can be a high seed. Maldonado and Ike are legitimate pro prospects worth monitoring.
18. Tennessee Volunteers
Head Coach: Rick Barnes
Record Last Year: 27-8, t-2nd in SEC
Prospects to Watch: Julian Phillips, Josiah-Jordan James, Santiago Vescovi, DJ Jefferson, Jonas Aidoo, Zakai Zeigler
Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes is one of the best men in basketball, and there’s a pure love that his players return to him. That effect, as well as the work done by his staff to specifically maximize the group within their scheme, always allows Tennessee to win games. They may not do the greatest at showcasing their pro prospects in translatable ways to the best of their abilities, which makes them a tough eval, but they have a legitimate offensive system that helps them win games.
Kennedy Chandler and John Fulkerson are gone, but starters Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James are back. Zakai Zeigler can step into a larger role in the backcourt, and there are other minutes available in the frontcourt for guys like Jonas Aidoo, Uros Plavsic and Olivier Nkamhoua. There’s no shortage of experience for the Vols this year and a decent amount of defensive potential. Vescovi and Zeigler can really shoot, JJJ plays like a 3-and-D winning piece, and the multitude of bigs give them different looks on the interior for post-ups and pick-and-pops.
While there are several freshmen in Knoxville, Julian Phillips stands out as the best and a potential one-and-done player. We like DJ Jefferson as well, a winner off the court and a big guard with a smooth jumper and deep range. If Phillips can shoot, he can start at some point this year (Barnes has been somewhat reluctant to go fully in on young guys) and Jefferson will play a role off the bench. This is a really experienced group that won 27 games a season ago. Look for more of the same for the Vols this year.
17. Oregon Ducks
Head Coach: Dana Altman
Record Last Year: 20-15, t-5th in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Kel’el Ware, Will Richardson, Quincy Guerrier, N’Faly Dante, Nate Bittle, Jeremy Cousinard
Quick trivia question. 4 programs have won 20 games for each of the last ten seasons: Belmont, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Oregon.
What Dana Altman has done from a consistency standpoint doesn’t get discussed enough. He brings in top recruits, retains some strong multi-year guys and has started to figure out this transfer market thing. Getting 6’5” scoring guard Will Richardson back really helps their chances of making a run this season. Richardson is a smooth player that can play on-ball or off-ball. Add in Jeremy Cousinard (South Carolina) and Keeshawn Barthelemy (Colorado) and there’s experience and firepower in the backcourt. It’s about balance with this group, as none of them are likely to go out there and take over a game, though it’s unlikely any will have a night where they don’t show up.
The real strength of this team is in their frontcourt. Top-ten freshman commit Kel’el Ware is a 7’0” wing that loves to score it, can hit some step-backs and isolation shots, and has fluidity off the bounce. He’s a good athlete and should play more of the 4 than the 5, but he figures to be in contention for a lottery pick next year as well as Freshman of the Year in the league. Next to him is fellow stretch big Nate Bittle and incumbent starter N’Faly Dante, a solid roll man and rim protector whose best impact comes on the glass. That’s a huge and impactful three-man rotation. Add in Quincy Guerrier, who started every game at the 4, and the amount of size and impact the Ducks have will allow them to outmatch every team they face.
We can see them closing with a lineup of Cousinard-Richardson-Guerrier-Ware-Dante and straight up locking people down while having enough scoring firepower to run away with games. Senior Rivaldo Soares helps as a spot-up shooter, and another freshman or transfer can contribute to round out the eight-man rotation. Don’t sleep on the Ducks!
16. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Head Coach: Mark Adams
Record Last Year: 27-10, 3rd in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: De’Vion Harmon, Fardaws Aimaq, Kevin Obanor, Elijah Fisher, Kerwin Walton, Jaylon Tyson
The next two teams on our radar are ones that will be neck-and-neck in the standings and present different ways to go about the same issue. Last year, first-year head coach and longtime assistant Mark Adams proved he was the brains of the organization that led to the ascent of the Red Raiders. Adams, as genuine a dude as you’ll find, has crushed the transfer portal and brought in some really good players. Six of their top seven from last year’s roster are gone, but Adams has quickly reloaded with a dynamic transfer group.
Most contributors on the roster are ones Adams has found through the portal. De’Vion Harmon (Oregon), Kevin Obanor (Oral Roberts; was with TTU last year), Kerwin Walton (North Carolina), Fardaws Aimaq (Utah Valley), Jaylon Tyson (Texas), and D’Maurian Williams (Gardner Webb) all figure to be part of the immediate rotation, with Aimaq and Obanor as the dynamic duo down low. Both can score; Aimaq is great on the interior while also knocking down 43.5% of treys on limit sample. Obanor is the floor-spacer and a pick-and-pop maven.
Speaking of shooting, five-star freshman Elijah Fisher is the highest-rated recruit to ever come to Lubbock and should be able to play right away. Harmon is a scoring-minded point guard, Walton more of a floor-spacing combo, and Williams a strong-bodied scorer. This Red Raiders group has no shortage of guys that can put the ball in the basket, making them really different (on paper) than last year’s size-and-defense units. The Red Raiders can definitely push to the top of the conference this year and should punch another ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
15. TCU Horned Frogs
Head Coach: Jamie Dixon
Record Last Year: 21-13, t-5th in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, Micah Peavy, Eddie Lampkin, Emanuel Miller
On the other end of the roster-building spectrum, TCU head coach Jamie Dixon has performed a modern miracle. Last year, the Horned Frogs had a top-six of Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, Emanuel Miller, Chuck O’Bannon, Eddie Lampkin, and sixth-man Micah Peavy.
All six are back this year.
This team will be a major test of the value of continuity in today’s game. All are upperclassmen, all have experience and experience winning together. The Horned Frogs made the NCAA Tournament and pushed Arizona to the brink in overtime during the second round. None of these guys are legitimate superstars (though Miles is a really damn good point guard and an NBA prospect we covet) but they are all above-average college players. While the transfer portal allows for teams to get old and stay old, the portal doesn’t have space for continuity like this. Returning all the major players from a 20-win team could mean that TCU is primed to make another leap up the standings.
The top departure was shooting specialist Francisco Farabello. He was a valued sniper and movement specialist in that second unit. Even backup forwards Xavier Cork and Jakobe Coles are back — there really aren’t many new guys to talk about. Just one. Rondel Walker (Oklahoma State) is the new transfer in town to replace Farabello; he’s more than just a shooter, though. Walker is one of the most disruptive perimeter defenders in the country; he’ll play his role incredibly well and fit in right away with this group.
Perhaps freshman guard PJ Haggerty gets some immediate burn and takes some of the creation responsibilities off Miles. This is still an offense that is run predominantly through him, while Lampkin can body unsuspecting big men down low. We have incredibly high expectations for this group and see them as a top-15 team in the nation.
14. Illinois Fighting Illini
Head Coach: Brad Underwood
Record Last Year: 23-10, t-1st in Big Ten
Prospects to Watch: Coleman Hawkins, Matthew Mayer, Skyy Clark, Terrence Shannon Jr., Jayden Epps, Luke Goode, Ty Rodgers
What a sensational job of pivoting from internal development and culture to touting the opportunity available via transfer market. Brad Underwood brought in a killer class of transfers to pair with up-and-comers Coleman Hawkins and Skyy Clark in a way that should keep Illinois as a top-15 team in the country. Clark is the prized 6’3” freshman guard we believe will take over reps at the point from day one, and man is he talented. Hawkins may be ready to be the next mismatch piece that everybody talks about; he’s 6’10”, shoots it, is athletic and can score on the interior.
Around him are two impactful transfers with a proven track record of success in Terrence Shannon Jr. (Texas Tech) and Matthew Mayer (Baylor). Mayer’s game is often understated, and the grad transfer knows how to impact winning as a defender, low-volume offensive piece and decision-maker. This core-four is versatile enough to help construct a big or a small lineup, where Hawkins can play the 4 if Baylor transfer Dain Dainja is healthy and earns his way into the rotation. Dainja can really score one-on-one on the blocks and has really intriguing handling ability if harnessed the right way. We’re banking on his health and conditioning to project the Illini as the cream of the crop in the league; he and Hawkins are a dynamic duo in the frontcourt.
Freshmen Ty Rodgers and Jayden Epps are supremely intriguing, sophomore guard RJ Melendez has his fans as a potential breakout candidate, and shooter Luke Goode may be able to provide depth on the wings. This is a completely different team, as five of their top six from last season are no longer in Champaign. But the combination of impactful transfers and talented freshmen are enough to get us incredibly excited about this year’s Illini squad.
13. Connecticut Huskies
Head Coach: Dan Hurley
Record Last Year: 23-10, 3rd in Big East
Prospects to Watch: Jordan Hawkins, Andre Jackson, Adama Sanogo, Hassan Diarra, Tristen Newton, Donovan Clingain, Samson Johnson
Yes, the Huskies have seven players we’re tracking ahead of the season with NBA potential. Some massive additions to the program can help replace the departure of backcourt scorer RJ Cole, but the need for Jordan Hawkins to step into a primary role and thrive is paramount. If he does that, this is a Huskies team that can leapfrog Villanova and finish knocking on the door of the top ten.
Down low, the Huskies are massive. Adama Sanogo proved himself as a reliable post threat with sweet touch and a halfway decent rim protector on the other end. Freshman Donovan Clingain should be able to give some minutes off the bench as a legitimate seven-footer, and 6’10” sophomore Samson Johnson provides more size and some ability to play the 4.
While size is a strong point for this group, they can win games with wing play, too. Andre Jackson is as athletic as anyone in college basketball; he thrives in the open floor and can really defend. Hawkins shows flashes of lockdown potential too, and has good size for a guard at 6’5”. Texas A&M transfer Hassan Diarra will be able to join that defensive group — this could be a Huskies team that is incredibly tough to score on.
While we have high expectations for Hawkins as a sophomore, East Carolina transfer Tristen Newton (17.7 PPG, 5.0 APG) brings size, playmaking and experience to the table. We have small worries about whether guys like Diarra and Jackson will be able to space the floor consistently. Sharpshooter Virginia Tech transfer Nahiem Alleyne is the perfect remedy to that worry, so Dan Hurley will have lots to sort through with such a loaded and experienced backcourt rotation.