2022-23 Preview: Top 25 (Pt. 3)
A dive into teams 12-7 on our preseason top-25 list
While so much of what we do here at The Box and One is geared toward individual prospect scouting, basketball is still a team game. Winning matters, both as a measure of individual impact and in understanding which team constructs are indicative of role emulation at the next level.
College basketball is just dang fun, man. There are tons of different styles at play, kids learning tons throughout the season, passion from the fanbases that is rarely seen at other levels, and the always-appealing culmination of the season in March Madness. We’re so excited for the season to begin… which is why we’ve been so in-depth at previewing this college season.
Here is Part Three of our breakdown of our preseason top-25, looking at the best teams in the nation and where we believe they’ll end up at the conclusion of the regular season.
12. UCLA Bruins
Head Coach: Mick Cronin
Record Last Year: 27-8, 2nd in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Amari Bailey, Adem Bona, Jaime Jaquez, Abramo Canka, Tyger Campbell, Dylan Andrews, Jaylen Clark
Well, there’s certainly talent here! Mick Cronin has revitalized the UCLA basketball program in a major way, landing top recruit after top recruit and keeping some talented upperclassmen around. Johnny Juzang, Jules Bernard and Cody Riley have all departed, changing the flavor of this group from an experienced one to a mesh of upperclassmen and newbies. Jaime Jaquez returns and should be a candidate for National Player of the Year. He’s a polished scorer, intelligent defender and walking mismatch. Cronin has committed to playing a rather isolation-heavy style around Jaquez, so we should see him take centerstage on a nightly basis.
The backcourt for the Bruins reflects that old and young balance. Tyger Campbell, the incumbent starter at the point, took a huge step forward last year by shooting 41% from 3. The combination of shot-making and dime-dropping is rare and incredibly valued. Freshman Dylan Andrews is going to learn a ton from Campbell and may be a good enough shooter for them to play side-by-side. 6’5” wing Jaylen Clark and 6’5” freshmen Amari Bailey will play the off-guard spots most of the time. Bailey is thought to be an impressive one-and-done prospect; he could easily end up in the lottery or needing an additional year in college. Either way, this is a talented four-man group, with fifth-year David Singleton also likely punching a spot in the rotation.
Next to Jaquez in the frontcourt, the Bruins bring the youth. 6’10” freshmen Adem Bona has a clear path to start at center. He’s really mobile and athletic, can handle a bit with flashes of tantalizing skill, and is a solid enough defender. Freshmen big men walking into championship-caliber teams can always be scary from a defensive perspective. His success will likely determine UCLA’s ceiling and his draft stock. Tall wing Abramo Canka will swing between the 3 and the 4, likely coming off the bench. Canka is immensely talented and belongs on NBA radars.
There are plenty of big bodies to provide depth and steady impact. Mac Etienne is a massive body recovering from an injury, Kenneth Nwuba is a redshirt senior who has been with the program for years, and there’s still some intrigue in going super small and playing Jaquez at the 5. This is a talented team, and one many will predict to win the league outright. How deep into March they push has a direct correlation to how ready the freshmen are to contribute. They’ll need two of them (at least) to be a top-15 team, and some dominant performances to crack into the top ten.
11. San Diego State Aztecs
Head Coach: Brian Dutcher
Record Last Year: 23-9, 3rd in Mountain West
Prospects to Watch: Matt Bradley, Darrion Trammell, Nathan Mensah
Defense, defense, and more defense.
The San Diego Aztecs know who they are and will destroy teams in the Mountain West with their defensive intensity and principles. 2 thru 5 they have length, strength, experience and athleticism. Matt Bradley is the fearless leader, a returner who once transferred from Cal and is a bowling ball of a driver. While he’s a fringe pro prospect, his game is incredibly imposing on the wings in a do-it-all sort of role. He’s their offensive engine at 6’4” and 220 pounds — a walking mismatch. Joining him in the backcourt is Seattle transfer Darrion Trammell, a tough bucket with really smooth shooting range. Trammell is great in ball screens, adding an element to this offense that they haven’t had before. While he’s really small, the Aztecs have the right infrastructure to protect him on defense.
Nobody should be happier about Trammell’s arrival than Nathan Mensah. The athletic big man now has a proficient point guard to throw him lobs on the inside. Mensah hasn’t been a really solid offensive threat (he plays because he’s an elite rim protector), though Trammell and Bradley should find ways to get him some quality looks.
The question for the Aztecs is whether they’ll get enough shooting outside that trio. We know every other role player is defensive-minded and has the physical tools to make things work. Lamont Butler (32.9% from 3), Keshad Johnson (18.2%), Jaedon LeDee (0%), and Aguek Arop (33.3%) are all below-average floor spacers. There’s no question that this defense will be among the nation’s best and can fuel their transition attack. Spacing on the offensive end will be key to getting them inside the top ten and not being susceptible to upsets deep in the season.
10. North Carolina Tar Heels
Head Coach: Hubert Davis
Record Last Year: 29-10, t-2nd in ACC
Prospects to Watch: Caleb Love, RJ Davis, Pete Nance, Seth Trimble, Armando Bacot, Donovan Johnson, Leaky Black, D’Marco Dunn, Jalen Washington
Look, we aren’t trying to be ‘haters’. The Tar Heels made the Final Four last year and return a lot of pieces from that inspiring run. Brady Manek has moved on, while Kerwin White and Dawson Garcia have transferred out of Chapel Hill. The three key pieces to the run are back, though: Caleb Love (15.9 points) and RJ Davis (13.5 points) will run the backcourt, while Armando Bacot (16.3 points, 13.1 rebounds) is easily an All-American candidate. Leaky Black an elite wing defender. That trifecta alone places the Tar Heels in the top half of the league.
Northwestern transfer big Pete Nance will provide a different frontcourt punch next to Bacot than Manek did. While Nance can shoot, he’s not a knockdown, high-volume sniper. However, he’s a skilled defender in ways that Manek simply wasn’t, hopefully strengthening their attack all around. Donovan “Puff” Johnson is back to drill shots on the wing. Puff can play either the 3 or the 4 and gets hot in a hurry.
There are young guys on the team worth monitoring. Seth Trimble is a really good scoring guard; when one of Love or Davis sits, the offense shouldn’t take much of a step back. Sophomore D’Marco Dunn is talented and could carve out a larger role during year two. 6’10” big Jalen Washington is young as a freshman, though he’s likely the heir apparent to Bacot. Hubert hasn’t gone after the typical top-20 recruits en masse, rather he’s prioritizing the right fit and positions of need. We kinda dig it.
To be frank, we aren’t too fond of this team’s defense. They were 179th in the nation last year and beat teams by outscoring them with tons of 3-point floor-spacers around two electric guards and a lunch-pale big who lived on the glass. There’s also a history of teams returning a large chunk of their productivity following a deep tournament run and not living up to the hype next year. The Tar Heels had a sensational run, but we’re trying not to overreact to it and think they’ll always play that way.
9. Arizona Wildcats
Head Coach: Tommy Lloyd
Record Last Year: 33-4, 1st in Pac-12
Prospects to Watch: Henri Veesaar, Courtney Ramey, Kerr Kriisa, Azuolas Tubelis, Adama Bal, Pelle Larsson, Oumar Ballo, Kylan Boswell, Filip Borovicanin
Year one of the Tommy Lloyd era was a success in ways that nobody could have predicted. 33 wins, a top-ten pick, and really dominant runs through the conference. Lloyd pretty much copy-and-pasted many Gonzaga principles, giving us the faith that he’ll be a bit of a systems coach. As long as he recruits strong talent and has depth, the Wildcats can thrive even without top-tier superstar prospects.
So while, on paper, Arizona takes a step back in the talent department after losing Bennedict Mathurin, Dalen Terry and Christian Koloko, they leave behind enough depth and experience to continue to win games. Kerr Kriisa is the ideal point guard for this offense. He’s a sturdy pick-and-roll creator, a good movement and off-ball shooter, and gets almost all of his offense from behind the 3-point line. Texas transfer and grad senior Courtney Ramey has all those same traits with a little more scoring pop off the bounce. Adding a four-year starter to this backcourt ensures they won’t experience much of a drop-off.
The Gonzaga motion offense works when there are two bigs that can thrive inside and out. Azuolas Tubelis is the offensive-minded big, a lefty mismatch that loves the blocks, has a smooth mid-range jumper and is a tremendous passer off the short roll or in hi-lo situations. Defense has been a bit of a concern for him, making the role of Oumar Ballo as the starting center all the more vital. Ballo is great laterally for a seven-footer and could have a really big year.
At the 3, Pelle Larsson is going to start and is a sleeper draft prospect. He’s a really good shooting wing that will fill the role of movement threat and is building off a strong finish to last year and international play this summer. Adama Bal should get more opportunities to do the same as a sophomore; he was incredibly efficient in low usage last year. 6’6” transfer from Campbell Cedric Henderson adds depth to that wing unit, and 6’10” freshmen Henri Veesaar is our favorite pro prospect of the group. I’m not sure how many minutes he’ll command right away behind Tubelis, but he’s a phenomenally skilled stretch big with a bright future. Point guard Kylan Boswell reclassed to join this Arizona team early, too; he’s a fair bet to contribute off the bench behind Ramey. The Wildcats won’t jump out as the most top-heavy group in America, but there’s more depth here than meets the eye and a system that properly utilizes every ounce of it.
8. Creighton Blue Jays
Head Coach: Greg McDermott
Record Last Year: 23-12, 4th in Big East
Prospects to Watch: Arthur Kaluma, Trey Alexander, Ryan Nembhard, Arthur Kalkbrenner, Baylor Scheierman
Last year, Creighton went on a tear in the late part of the season thanks, in large part, to three freshmen: Arthur Kaluma, Trey Alexander and Ryan Nembhard. The Blue Jays won 10 of their final 14 games, scoring over 70 in nine of those contests. Their offense has always been potent with Greg McDermott in charge; he’s an unbelievable tactician, recruits shooters and uses them well, and gets the most out of his players from a developmental standpoint.
Many are expecting a big leap forward from Kaluma, a trendy draft breakout candidate in his sophomore year. Honestly, the likes of Alexander and Nembhard aren’t bad guesses either; they make up the best backcourt in the Big East. Kaluma is the ideal 4-man, while South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman provides the movement shooting and floor spacing that makes this team tick. That’s an unbelievable guard and wing rotation.
Holding everything together is junior big Ryan Kalkbrenner, who averaged 2.6 blocks per game a year ago and is one of the best bigs in the league. His nice touch on the interior makes him a solid pick-and-roll partner, and he has enough of a jumper to garner attention on the perimeter.
Depth is going to be the issue for the Blue Jays; they’re one injury away from having their season changed drastically. TCU transfer Francisco Farabello gives another dose of shooting, and a class of five freshmen may jockey for some bench minutes. This is a really good group that we have top-ten expectations for due to the experience, talent and perfect fit of all skill pieces.
7. Kentucky Wildcats
Head Coach: John Calipari
Record Last Year: 26-8, t-2nd in SEC
Prospects to Watch: Chris Livingston, Cason Wallace, Daimion Collins, Oscar Tshiebwe, Jacob Toppin, Antonio Reeves, Sahvir Wheeler, CJ Fredrick, Adou Thiero
Ever since jumping more into the transfer portal than just the freshman one-and-done market, Calipari’s teams have erred on the side of experience. Last year, for example, TyTy Washington was the only freshman to play more than eight minutes per game. Many of those experienced players — Oscar Tshiebwe, Sahvir Wheeler, Jacob Toppin — are back and figure to have a strong grip over their spot in the rotation. But three starters (Washington, shooting specialist Kellan Grady and Keion Brooks) are gone, leaving a few holes to be filled.
The meat and potatoes of this team is the Tshiebwe and Wheeler combination. Sahvir is an unbelievable passer that thrives out of the pick-and-roll and transition creating for others; he’s a blur in the open floor. Tshiebwe is a dominant offensive rebounder with insane strength and athleticism down low; he deserves post-up touches and can score as a roller. The rest of the rotation, then, is about surrounding them with shooting whenever possible.
That’s why the two freshmen coming in that are highly touted (Chris Livingston and Cason Wallace) are so important. Wallace, in particular, is a really good shooter from the combo guard spot; he’s more of a natural point with an elite floater (like Washington) but will be siphoned to more of an off-ball role thanks to Wheeler’s experience. Livingston, a 6’5” high-flying athlete, has a workable jump shot. If he knocks it down, there are minutes to be had, though he could easily lose a rotation spot if he doesn’t.
Jacob Toppin and Daimion Collins, both hyperathletic at the 4, are more rollers than spacers and don’t shoot it at volume. That cramps spacing on offense, meaning we will likely see at least one of Antonio Reeves (39% from 3 at Illinois State last year) or CJ Fredrick (career 46% from 3 at Iowa) in the rotation or starting lineup. Look, Calipari has a formula and clearly defined roles on-court; they can be frustrating from a scouting perspective but he gets guys ready for success in the NBA and wins games in college. Hard to argue with that. The Wildcats have all the talent to be knocking on the door of the top five.