2022-23 Preview: Top 25 (Pt. 4)
The final countdown of our preseason top six teams in the NCAA
While so much of what we do here at The Box and One is geared toward individual prospect scouting, basketball is still a team game. Winning matters, both as a measure of individual impact and in understanding which team constructs are indicative of role emulation at the next level.
College basketball is just dang fun, man. There are tons of different styles at play, kids learning tons throughout the season, passion from the fanbases that is rarely seen at other levels, and the always-appealing culmination of the season in March Madness. We’re so excited for the season to begin… which is why we’ve been so in-depth at previewing this college season.
Here is Part Four of our breakdown of our preseason top-25, looking at the best teams in the nation and where we believe they’ll end up at the conclusion of the regular season.
6. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Head Coach: Mark Few
Record Last Year: 28-4, 1st in WAC
Prospects to Watch: Nolan Hickman, Hunter Sallis, Julian Strawther, Drew Timme, Rasir Bolton, Malachi Smith, Efton Reid, Anton Watson
The best player in college basketball resides in Spokane. He plays for a veteran coach, in a system built around his success, with other really good players, and in a league where his game can dominate. The stars have aligned for Drew Timme to become not just the face of college basketball but one of the most dominant scorers the game can offer. The Zags lost more than just Chet Holmgren: their backcourt lost its leader in Andrew Nembhard.
Luckily, Mark Few has stacked his backcourt rotation. Starter Rasir Bolton returns to the fold, and sophomores Nolan Hickman and Hunter Sallis are all ready for larger workloads. Hickman, in particular, is a favorite of ours due to his shooting ability and how effortless he makes the game. The real prize may be Malachi Smith, the Chattanooga transfer who shot 40% from 3 last year, averaged 20-7-3, and is an efficient finisher near the rim. Now Timme has shooters all around him (including NBA prospect wing Julian Strawther, who may be the team’s top draft pick next year).
Down low, Timme has two talented frontcourt partners in Anton Watson and LSU transfer Efton Reid. They’ll help make the hi-lo offense keep running, as both are solid passers and threats in the post.
Look, the Zags may not have the top-five pick on their roster this year. They’re built to win the college game now more than ever. A top-five team without a doubt, they go eight deep (possibly nine with Dominick Harris) and are talented and balanced. Don’t expect a step back from them.
5. Baylor Bears
Head Coach: Scott Drew
Record Last Year: 27-7, t-1st in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Keyonte George, Langston Love, Jalen Bridges, Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer, Jonathan Tchamwa Tachatchoua, Dale Bonner
Baylor has, by my measure, the best backcourt in the country. There are four options to legitimately score the basketball without sacrificing a ton on the defensive end. Keyonte George is the standout here, a top-10 pick in the making and a wired-to-score 6’5” wing. George is athletic with bounce, polished on three levels, incredibly confident and an underrated passer. Langston Love is recovering from an ACL injury that cost him last year. Love can really score it, is super skilled and a fantastic spot-up shooter.
Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer are also talented scorers; they each averaged 13.5 PPG last year, so it’s really hard to talk about them second in this context. Thanks to the departures of Kendall Brown and Jeremy Sochan to the NBA, head coach Scott Drew can play three-guard lineups more often. We’d expect Cryer to come off the bench yet again but still have a positive impact. Even former D2 transfer Dale Bonner is deserving of rotation minutes and can defend his ass off. There’s so much dangerous scoring and guard play here in Baylor.
The losses of Brown and Sochan, as well as Matthew Mayer (transfer to Illinois) make the wing rotation incredibly thin. Two things make up for that. First: transfers into the program. Jalen Bridges (West Virginia) is a long-armed floor-spacer with really good range to the corners. He’ll thrive next to Baylor’s guard play. BYU transfer Caleb Lohner is a 6’8” forward that started 31 games a year ago; he’ll be in the rotation and might push Bridges for a starting spot.
The second area to make up for that: depth at the 5 on defense. Flo Thamba is a fifth-year senior and Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua are back; Thamba started every game last year and Goodluck Jonathan provides a ton of value off the bench on the glass. If Jonathan can keep adding shooting range to his game, there’s a possibility these guys can play some minutes together. All in all, just a super talented Bears team that many will have as the favorites to win the conference. They’ve lost some key pieces but have more than enough here to make up for it.
4. Kansas Jayhawks
Head Coach: Bill Self
Record Last Year: 34-6, t-1st in Big Twelve
Prospects to Watch: Gradey Dick, Kevin McCullar, Jalen Wilson, Dajuan Harris, KJ Adams, MJ Rice, Zuby Ejiofor, Zach Clemence, Ernest Udeh
Look, we get it. The Jayhawks lost a lot from their National Championship team a season ago. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s to never doubt Bill Self. Every year, guys who didn’t play the season prior slide into the rotation without many issues. Now that he’s wading into the transfer waters for instant help at positions of need, it may be unrealistic to expect the Jayhawks to take even the slightest step backward.
Jalen Wilson is the returning piece with the most impact. He’s been a valued 4-man (and even small-ball 5) that stretches the floor consistently and has length on defense. He’s a really versatile piece and a player we’re quite fond of. Place him next to 6’6” Kevin McCullar (Texas Tech transfer) and the Jayhawks have two of the more impactful defensive pieces in the nation. McCullar’s inefficient offensive season with the Red Raiders can be attributed to being asked to do far too much. With a simplified role as a shooter, his impact should pop.
Speaking of shooting, the Jayhawks added the top shooting freshman in Gradey Dick to this roster. He’s a movement specialist, has good size at 6’6” and is an underrated finisher. Once again, they’ll be able to light it up from deep, though don’t be surprised if Dick isn’t a starter from day one.
Those perimeter shots only get created if Kansas has an impact at the book ends of the lineup, though. Self isn’t shy about throwing the ball inside, where big men really thrive. The Jayhawks have three freshmen to choose from to replace David McCormack: redshirt freshman Zach Clemence, stocky big Zuby Ejiofor, and the mountainous Ernest Udeh Jr. It’s nice knowing that Self can go super small with Wilson at the 5 if these guys don’t step up, but with the way he teaches bigs, it’s a good bet at least one of them will.
At the point, defender Dajuan Harris is back. He played his role really well last year and should have a similar one. The All-Big Twelve defender can disrupt any opponent’s offense while setting the table for his teammates, and he’s one of the most criminally underrated players in the country. Other freshmen such as MJ Rice and KJ Adams will make an impact on the wings/ forward spots. They could use one more reliable point guard to tighten their depth from top to bottom, but we really buy into the talent on this roster.
3. Arkansas Razorbacks
Head Coach: Eric Musselman
Record Last Year: 28-9, 4th in SEC
Prospects to Watch: Nick Smith, Anthony Black, Jordan Walsh, Jalen Graham, Trevon Brazile, Ricky Council IV, Davonte Davis, Makhel Mitchell, Makhi Mitchell, Derrian Ford
All aboard the Muss Bus! The Razorback bandwagon made two stops this offseason: the transfer portal and the top of the high school recruiting board. Musselman simultaneously landed three top 25 recruits and five of the most impactful transfers on the market. With last year’s starting point guard Davonte Davis returning at the point, this Razorbacks team is looking to build on their Elite Eight run from a season ago.
The losses of five seniors and Jaylin Williams to the NBA will hurt in terms of experience, but that’s where the transfers come in. Jalen Graham (Arizona State) is an athletic 6’9” true senior with two years of starting experience at ASU. Makhel (10.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.4 blocks) and Makhi (9.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.4 blocks) are the 6’10” twins from Rhode Island; they started their careers at Maryland and help solidify the interior. Those three will hold down the fort down low with Missouri sophomore transfer Trevon Brazile (1.9 blocks in 21 minutes per game as a freshman in the SEC), making this an incredibly deep frontcourt.
In the backcourt and with the offensive reps/ creation burden, that’s where the freshmen come in. Nick Smith is a dynamic scorer reminiscent of Jamal Murray; he can play on-ball or off-ball. Anthony Black is a 6’8” point guard, a dynamic passer with unreal court vision and high IQ. Black, fellow freshman Jordan Walsh, and junior guard Davonte Davis (27%) all struggle shooting the ball, making this instantly a crowded lane for everyone to drive into. 6’6” Wichita State transfer Ricky Council is a good shooter, at least.
Musselman has size at every position, no shortage of NBA talent, a few guys with lottery potential, and experience. The only thing missing is proven 3-point shooting. Smith and Council are solid there, though that may not be enough in late-game situations. They can out-talent opponents and swallow them up with their size on defense most nights. This is a top-15 team without question and can rise up into the top five with more offensive cohesion and well-spaced sets.
2. Duke Blue Devils
Head Coach: Mike Krz… um, I mean, Jon Scheyer
Record Last Year: 32-7, 1st in ACC
Prospects to Watch: Dereck Lively, Dariq Whitehead, Tyrese Proctor, Kyle Filipowski, Mark Mitchell, Jeremy Roach, Jacob Grandison, Jaden Schutt, Jaylen Blakes
There’s just too much talent in Durham not to have the Blue Devils as the preseason top-two team in the nation. For all the fanfare about Coach K’s overdrawn goodbye, it’s probably a good thing Jon Scheyer is now in the driver’s seat. We’re expecting a modern offense, a few more proactive in-game adjustments and an approach to their defense that prevents them from switching to a 2-3 zone mid-January.
Three talented bigs highlight the best frontcourt in the nation. Oh, all three happen to be freshmen. Dereck Lively is the defender of the group, a 7’1” gazelle with rim protection and switching instincts. Pairing him with 6’10” stretch big Kyle Filipowski (oh by the way, Lively can shoot a bit too) helps the Devils space the floor and survive with a two-big look. Filipowski isn’t the quickest guy in the world, though he’s far from the perimeter disaster some might expect at his size. The odd man out is Mark Mitchell, an energy 6’9” forward with tremendous finishing potential. He’ll likely come off the bench and should be a nice spark for the second unit.
Dariq Whitehead may be the best scorer of all freshmen in the country. He’s got a great first step, can score on all three levels, trusts his pull-up, creates space for step-backs and is capable of making shots against airtight defenders. An underrated passer, Whitehead should be the late-clock option and a guy Scheyer trusts from day one. The Devils have good options at the point in Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor; Proctor is an improving 3-point shooter, and if he’s making them consistently, his combination of talent and playmaking should see him surpass Roach in the rotation.
The role pieces are all exceptional and complement these foundational players well. Illinois transfer Jacob Grandison shot 40% from 3 each of the last two seasons and will play a big role at the 3. Ryan Young (Northwestern transfer) is a functional bench big man in case there are injuries, foul trouble, or just the need for a veteran presence on the floor. Freshman Jayden Schutt is a shooting specialist and has great functionality in any way that Scheyer would see fit for his playbook.
There are other guys we could discuss here, but you get the point. The Blue Devils have amassed top-tier talent with their freshmen, role players that understand what is asked and flank them well skill-wise, and have great passers at the point to keep the ball moving and create for everyone. It’s no wonder this is a trendy team to sit atop preseason polls!
1. Houston Cougars
Head Coach: Kelvin Sampson
Record Last Year: 32-6, 1st in AAC
Prospects to Watch: Jarace Walker, Terrence Arceneaux, Marcus Sasser, Tramon Mark, Jamal Shead
This is it, folks. Our preseason #1 team in the country. Kelvin Sampson has guided the Cougars to the Elite 8 in consecutive years, and several returners bring that experience back with them. Marcus Sasser is the lifeblood of this team; he was injured and missed their postseason run this year. If he were healthy, we expect they could’ve gone farther. He wasn’t the only one hurt. Tramon Mark missed the season and is a long, athletic defender that can knock down shots.
If there’s a positive from those injuries, it’s that Jamal Shead really turned into a go-to player. He’s a sensational distributor (10 PPG, 5.8 APG) and makes for a tough matchup next to the scoring-minded Sasser. Shead was surrounded by seniors last year; four seniors have now departed the program, but 6’8” big Reggie Chaney is back to bolster the frontcourt. He and Kiyron Powell are likely to compete for starter reps at the 5.
Of course, the big gaps are at the forward spots, where two fabulous freshmen are incoming. Jarace Walker is an animal, an inside and outside presence with no fear, a physical frame that he uses liberally, and growing shooting touch from the perimeter. He’ll mismatch anybody in the AAC and is ready to paly from day one. Terrence Arceneaux is one of our favorite under-the-radar prospects; a really confident scoring wing ready to help alleviate the burden on Sasser’s shoulders.
The Cougars are talented, they have an identity as a group of tough guys, the talent to go out and win games, and a coach who is as good at teaching defense as anyone in the country. There could be three players from this team drafted in 2023, making them a must-see for NBA scouts and a ‘can’t miss’ for college fans. The Cougars are legit.