2022 NBA Draft Final Big Board: Part 4
We're into the lottery talents, looking at those who we project to be starter-level players or high-end starters with some All-Star upside
It’s here.
Finally.
Less than a week away, we are ready to start publishing our final version of the 2022 NBA Draft Big Board. Ours will come out in five separate installments going by tiers of talent, working our way up to the best of the best in this class.
If you want to skip the line and see the entire Big Board and Top-120, you can do so by subscribing to the Box and One’s paid membership plan, where our Big Board is live now and ready for all to access.
Part Three of this Big Board dove into the guys we have a first-round grade on but might not be lottery talents or swings we would feel comfortable making. Previous installments went into the guys knocking on the door of first round grades (Part Two) and the tail end of our Big Board with the guys who are late-round candidates.
Now we look at the lottery guys, our safe bets and high-talented guys just outside the elite tier of players. Below you will see in-depth breakdowns of these prospects, as well as video scouting reports and an explanation of the tiers we cut our board into.
Tier 4: Safe, High-Value Role Players/ Fifth Starters
As we enter the top-four teams, we are looking at and for guys we can feel really comfortable with predicting will be part of a rotation in the future. There are fewer red flags that would cause us to be out on a guy or think they could flunk out of the league. There’s also a little bit less of that superstar, potential franchise pillar upside present than some higher tiers.
Tier 4 tends to be closer to the lottery or middle part of the first round with where it reaches. About 20-25 prospects make it to their second contracts from every draft class. If we apply that metric to our tiered approach of draft ranking, we’d feel comfortable predicting about two-thirds of that grouping. Tier 4 is the very beginning of that valuation. The higher up the tier we go, the higher the upside is to either push the boundaries of becoming a franchise pillar or there’s less risk of us feeling like we’d be proven wrong about this safe valuation.
4.14 - Jeremy Sochan, Baylor
At 6’9” with long arms, fluid lateral quickness and a strong but mobile frame, Sochan looks like he was born to be the next version of a defensive-stopper in the NBA. He has the build to match up with the NBA’s best and brightest stars and seemingly hold his own: guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker and Anthony Edwards.
That’s the idealized version of Sochan, switching among different defensive positions and responsibilities based on what his team needs. The current version of Sochan we are all seeing is far, far away from that. To a certain extent, many draft pundits who are anointing Sochan as a top-ten talent are getting carried away in assuming he will make that leap. A lot of proof exists that he can, but can and will are two very different things.
Sochan is much rawer than he gets labeled as. On both ends of the floor, Sochan is still feeling his way through the game. There are moments of intrigue, upside, high-IQ and rare understanding. But they are, for now, just flashes, tantalizing glimpses into one of the most valuable role players out there with the combination of all the little things he’s shown. The jump shot has some flaws and is low-volume; we trust the form and fluidity more than with some other projects, but there’s work to be done.
Belief in Sochan has to go beyond the film and what it presents today. He turned 19 at the start of May, making him one of the younger prospects in this class. He’s still very, very raw. But there’s so much to work with from a tools perspective, both in regard to physical and skill-based traits. If the offensive creativity turns into anything consistently, or he can harness the small-ball 5 flashes he showed at Baylor, he’ll be one of the highest-valued role players available in the NBA.
4.13 - TyTy Washington, Kentucky
Context is king, and TyTy Washington is going to be a prospect whose draft position is heavily dependent on context. His per-game, and even per-40 numbers, don’t pop in the way that another lottery prospect might: 12.5 points per game on 10.9 field goal attempts, only 3.9 assists per game and only a 22.5% usage rate.
Washington’s numbers are merely a byproduct of the talent he plays with at Kentucky and the boxes that head coach John Calipari puts himself into on offense by recruiting ball-dominant players who lack versatility. Those with versatility, like Washington, suffer a bit: they relinquish reps in ways that are best for them in order to make all the pieces fit together. The Kentucky effect is very real, and once again the mainstream seems to be undervaluing a Wildcat guard.
The big question for any team drafting Washington is how to divide the balance between on-ball or off-ball reps and development.
By our measure after watching the film, we’d let him operate with the ball in his hands more than without it. He is not an elite space-creator, but he is a very good passer, an elite mid-range scorer (a space most don’t need to create because NBA defenses will give it to you) and hits tough shots even without a great amount of space. Imagining what he can do as a playmaker and finisher in a spread pick-and-roll scheme (something he didn’t get at all at Kentucky) gets us really excited about his long-term offensive upside.
Washington is a fairly safe player, a do-it-all backcourt option who is a smooth operator and impactful off-ball threat. How high his ceiling is — and his likelihood of being more than just a capable second-unit facilitator who can shoot — will depend on how he can hold up athletically and if he adds consistent pull-up range to 3. Both seem plausible to us, which is why we’re in on TyTy with a lottery grade. He’d be an excellent backcourt complement to any type of star player.
4.12 - Mark Williams, Duke
For months, we’ve been driving the Mark Williams hype train. He is an impactful player at the next level. His rim protection traits are already pretty strong, but have so many areas where they can get better with NBA polish. He’s 7’0” with a legitimate 7’7” wingspan, the highest in this draft class. His length combines with solid explosion off the floor on both ends, an incredibly high motor and decent mobility to make him a fantastic defensive prospect. What he does well and the natural tools he possesses are clear translators to rim protection and Drop PNR coverage.
Beyond that, Williams’ offensive arsenal has a similarly easy transition to NBA basketball. He led college basketball in dunks this year; he plays above the rim and throws down lobs in the short corner dunker spot. He has enough touch and body control to be excellent as a PNR roll man, making him an ideal big to pair with an offensive-minded guard.
If Williams can play in more schemes than just Drop coverage, he can easily be worth the lottery pick simply by unlocking versatility for his coaching staff. He showed some flashes of challenging on switches and using his length well against jump shots, but the lateral quickness and sliding of his feet one-on-one could really make him switchable.
We aren’t saying Williams will have an immediate starter-like impact on an NBA team. Big men always take a little bit of time to add seasoning for their defensive work, as rim protection in the league is incredibly detail-oriented. But we’re saying that from what we’ve seen at Duke, there is no reason not to make an investment in a guy like Williams being a high-caliber starting center in the NBA. That alone should make him a lottery pick and challenge the notion that big men without elite levels of skill should fall to the later parts of the draft. Sometimes the simple, obvious read is the right one.
4.11 - Dyson Daniels, G-League Ignite
A big, 6’7” creator, Dyson Daniels averaged 4.5 assists per game while sharing on-ball reps in the G-League with PNR-centric guard Scoot Henderson and iso scoring maven Jaden Hardy. Spacing was cramped surrounded largely by non-shooters, so the pick-and-roll reps were somewhat limited, both in number and in impact. What we know about Daniels’ passing is that it’s likely his best offensive trait to translate to the NBA.
Part of figuring out Daniels’ impact is in determining what the likelihood is of him playing more of an on-ball role or an off-ball one in the NBA. While it may be easy to say “Daniels is better served with the ball in his hands”, there’s only one ball per game and 30 teams out there. Hundreds of NBA players are likely best individually if they got touches. The guys who can play off-ball are not only required but incredibly valuable.
That’s where we’ve seen Daniels all along, and why he checks in as more of a combo guard on our list. As a slasher, a ball mover and someone with more shooting potential than his numbers indicate, being a low-volume connector piece could be where he’s destined to end up.
As the pre-draft process has gone on longer, we’ve started to see the merit in projecting him as having more value than just as a connector. He’s a solid jump shooter, has an elite floater out of the pick-and-roll and has made strides with his pull-up mechanics. The rumor on the street is that Daniels is knocking on the door of the top-five. That’s a little high for us without buying fully into the pull-up arsenal becoming really strong.
4.10 - Jalen Duren, Memphis
At only 18 years old, Jalen Duren is the youngest player in this draft class. Youth doesn’t always mean upside, but the in-season development Duren underwent at Memphis proves he’s on track to be a legitimate starting center in the NBA. We see him thriving in a DeAndre Ayton type of role, which we’d 100% draft for in the late portions of the top ten.
For Duren, the impact was instant at Memphis. He started from day one, ripped down a double-double in his second career game and physically proved he didn’t just belong but could dominate a college court. Where he’s far away is in the skill category, and that could catch up to him as he enters a league where his physical traits won’t cause him to even stand out, let alone dominate. Duren is a long-term investment at a position known for requiring a little more time and seasoning than most.
Defensively, Duren will make his money and last as an NBA starter if he masters many of the techniques necessary to be an elite rim protector. Right now, there are elite glimpses of some rim protection traits. His standing reach, explosion and ability to get to balls make him a great shot blocker. He is capable of jumping vertically and squaring contact with his chest, and we do believe there is switchability upside.
Offensively, Duren was not placed in his optimal role with this Memphis team for much of the year. This was a team without a point guard for much of the year, and their offense struggled without an on-court leader.
Duren combines rebounding, powerful finishing and elite shot blocking. He’s shown a few glimpses of skill off the short roll, and he’s so much more athletic and strong than his contemporaries that the raw base to build skill on top of is the most intriguing in this class.
4.9 - Johnny Davis, Wisconsin
Being a tough shot-maker is great. Having to be a tough shot-maker is not.
Davis took a ridiculously high amount of pull-up twos. Johnny was 5th in the nation in ‘short’ pull-up attempts (within 17 feet) and took more mid-range jumpers (148) than shots at the rim (134). This isn’t (necessarily) an analytics diatribe, though it’s worth understanding why Davis takes so many long twos, short mid-range jumpers and contested pull-ups: he isn’t quick or bursty enough to be a primary creation threat at the NBA level.
That’s okay! Davis showed enough positive traits elsewhere to have us believing he can make the shift from ball-dominant college star to impactful role player in the NBA. At 6’5” and with long arms, he has enough personal versatility to fit next to many types of backcourt mates. He’s an elite rebounder for a guard, and shot 39% on catch-and-shoots in the half-court. He’ll be fine scaling back to a smaller role.
He has immense defense potential, a trait that may wind up being his most attractive to NBA scouts. What Davis lacks in quickness off the bounce he more than makes up for with his lateral movements on defense. Guys have a tough time driving around him when he’s set. He squares a ton of contact to his chest, walls up physically and doesn’t foul. Driving around him is not an easy task, even for smaller and faster guards. More importantly, Davis is one of the best prospects we’ve seen in years at avoiding contact on ball screens. His navigation of screens — what we in the biz call “getting skinny” — allows him to fight through contact and still shut off driving valves.
Knowing that Davis can make tough shots is really good at giving him some late-clock impact and predicting that he’ll average at least 10-12 points per game in the NBA. The athletic profile isn’t our favorite offensively, but he defenders, has size, rebounds, hits open jumpers and is wildly competitive. A lot to like in the later parts of the lottery.
Tier 3: Fringe All-Star Upside/ A Good Third Option
Last year, we wrote a long, detailed piece on team-building in the NBA that's premise was on finding three pillars for an organization. Sometimes that means finding three star players. Other times, it's two stars and a legitimate identity (shooting, defense, experience, etc.).
Tier 3 is a complicated tier in most drafts, because finding a third option for your team is really all about fit. The grouping is filled with guys who have All-Star potential in my eyes, as well as a really high likelihood of them either reaching that potential or being at worst a starting-caliber player. They elevate themselves from Tier 4 by being high-ceiling guys and from Tier 5 by having a better chance of not hitting their floor. In essence, contributors to a roster who won’t be busts and find themselves out of the league but also have some All-Star Upside.
Their ranking within this tier is essentially in order of our belief in their top-level upside: how likely are they to get to that All-Star ceiling?
3.8 - Keegan Murray, Iowa
Somehow, Murray does a little bit of everything and still manages to be efficient. He shot over 39% from 3-point range on plenty of attempts, looks that come in all different ways. He would spot up for catch-and-shoots, dribble into his shot in isolations, hit a few step-backs, buzz off screens and thrive in the pick-and-pop. Analytic models love Murray: what he does on a per-minute basis from a production standpoint, while still being incredibly efficient, is mind-blowingly rare.
More than just a shooter, Keegan is great at getting to the rack. He summons spin moves at a rate that rivals Pascal Siakam, twisting and turning back to his right hand and using his wide, strong frame to get open. He has one of our favorite traits a big wing can have: the ability to play physically without being out of control. He’s strong but not overly imposing, creates contact but doesn’t over-embellish or push off.
Murray isn’t the quickest with his first step. His rim attempts are a function of craftiness, those clever spin moves and just physically getting through his defender. While he has great touch and finishing feel, he doesn’t get there for a ton of clean reps.
Defensively, Murray frustrates and puzzles us. There are some excellent possessions where he’s engaged, moves his feet well and engulfs drivers. There are others where his off-ball awareness is mighty poor and his effort on-ball is lacking. We worry slightly about his positional versatility for any team that would put him at the 3 or the 5.
Murray grew on us as the season went on. He started strong against mid-major programs, struggled out of the gates in the Big Ten, then figured it out as the season progressed. We think he’d be miscast in a primary scoring role and is best as a third option who can just pick his spots and be a well-rounded role piece. The dependability makes him a top-ten prospect, and the versatility gives him some upside to turn into a 15-18 PPG scorer.
3.7 - Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona
A really good off-ball scorer, Mathurin possesses the athleticism and pull-up scoring that could propel him into a primary role if he develops in the NBA. At 6’6” with a 6’9” wingspan and vastly underrated hops, he’s the premier 3-point shooting wing in this class. He shot 37% from 3 this year and 38.3% over his two-year career with the Wildcats. He’s got pristine form, legit elevation on his jumper and movement shooting upside that makes him the ideal off-ball scorer.
That sets the floor for impact and keeps him as a low-risk option. Mathurin combines the low-risk impact of an off-ball scoring threat with the very realistic upside of a secondary scorer in the half-court. As the season progressed, he showed a great deal of growth off the bounce. His pull-up game improved, he got to the rim at a solid rate and made some intriguing passes on the move. Over his final 16 games, Bennedict averaged 19.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists with only 1.7 turnovers, shot 50% from two-point range and got to the free throw line nearly six times a game.
While we like Mathurin’s scoring out of ball screens, he has a long way to go if he’s to add isolation scoring to his arsenal. His separation without a screen, based on his heavy feet on side-steps and subpar ball handling, is not at an NBA level yet. It could get there eventually, but it’s the part of his offensive game that can be deferred in terms of skill development. Far more important is the ball handling, passing consistency and making sure he’s an efficient scorer at the rim.
Defensively, Mathurin shows some flashes while also demonstrating a few concerning traits. We tend to bet on the natural athleticism and size profile. Mathurin should be fine against 2s and 3s.
The right coach and system gets a lot of mileage out of Mathurin. He’s great next to any type of star player, both with his position and the gravity of his shooting. He’d be great off handoffs and secondary actions, too. The upside to turn into a shot creator caught our eye down the stretch of the season, and we’re willing to buy into that development continuing in the NBA.
3.6 - Jaden Hardy, G-League Ignite
At this point, all frequent readers of our work during this draft cycle are used to hearing this: we’ve bought into Jaden Hardy. The rarity of a 19-year-old who is deserving of and commands a lead role in an offense on a professional team cannot be overstated. Hardy not only produced on high volume but got so much better as the season went on. Unfairly criticized based on the tough start to his year after a leap from high school to the pros, Hardy really did bounce back down the stretch.
Final 8: 22.5 PTS, 4.9 REB, 4.2 AST, 2.8 TO, 1.5 STL. 42% FG, 37.7% 3FG
Middle 9: 18.9 PTS, 3.2 REB, 2.7 AST, 4.1 TO, 0.9 STL. 37.8% FG, 27.7% 3FG
First 7: 17.9 PTS, 5.3 REB, 3.4 AST, 2.9 TO, 1.4 STL. 33.1% FG, 28.3% 3FG
When we’re looking at taking a player at the top of one of these tiers, we look for the upside they have to become a 20 point per game scorer. Hardy already is that at a professional level, and we can easily see him turning into a primary option in the NBA.
Context is important for understanding his struggles with efficiency, not just chocking it up to playing in a professional league. The Pick-and-roll reps that Hardy got were spacing-cramped. Many empty-side reps (rare in the NBA) with three non-shooters on the weak side limit his ability to turn the corner and get to the rim. Daniels (27.3%), Beauchamp (27.3%), Foster (20%) and Scoot Henderson (23.3%) all struggled from deep. The spacing around Hardy was absolutely abysmal, further limiting the driving lanes available for him to get to the rim, and since his game is more skill-based than athletic-based, that killed his rim attempts.
He excels in high pick-and-rolls against Drop coverage, where he can use his mid-range pull-up to be a threat. Defenders in Drop have to either live with him drilling those or commit and let him use his craft and shiftiness to get to the bucket. He’s gotten so much better at keeping his dribble alive and worming through traffic into a controlled layup. Early in the season, those attempts were off one foot and jumping from too far away.
Underrated as a passer, Hardy’s playmaking numbers and feel should pop in the NBA when he’s given the opportunity and surrounded by better spacing. Hardy is also the type of guy that can operate next to a great PNR creator. He shot 39% on catch-and-shoot looks in the half-court last year:
Hardy isn’t without flaws as a prospect. He absolutely needs to get stronger and more athletic if he’s going to finish at the rim. His defensive effort is not steller and he needs to hone in on that end. But the offense is very legitimate, both in an on-ball and off-ball format.
3.5 - Shaedon Sharpe, Kentucky
This draft class’ man of mystery, Shaedon Sharpe is a wild card thrown into the draft process. Going from high school directly to the NBA is very challenging, and what is important to remember for any team drafting him is that they’ll need to be patient. Speed of the game, physicality in the league and the pure intensity of the schedule may cause him to struggle out of the gates.
Drafting this high is drafting about upside, and it’s very clear to see the legitimate upside Sharpe possesses as a top creator. He measured with a 6’11’ wingspan at the NBA Draft Combine and is an elite athlete. That leaping ability and length are great baselines for work on the defensive end.
Combine that with small evidence in high school and AAU play of tough shot-making, 3-point range off the bounce, an aesthetically-pleasing jumper and some playmaking ability for others, and Sharpe is definitely a top-tier talent if he pans out.
Sharpe’s upside places him in this tier, but he’ll be an acquired taste for franchises based on their risk aversion profile. Anytime you take in a very unproven prospect who didn’t play collegiately, there is a good deal of risk.
Combine that with some indicators from Sharpe’s AAU film about his rim pressure as a great athlete (he passes from the perimeter instead of attacking the hoop and engaging second-level defenders) and there’s a lot to clean up. While there were recent reports surfacing about him struggling to separate himself from the likes of Mathurin and Daniels in a pre-draft workout, there shouldn’t be much of an expectation that he can right now: he’s younger than them all and hasn’t played against that high level of competition yet.
Remember, the draft is about upside and finding guys who can turn into elite players. From an athletic perspective, Sharpe places himself high on the list of guys who have that potential. The skill and feel can be developed, and the flashes of it thus far are tantalizing enough to dive into.
Click here for Part 5 of our 2022 NBA Draft Big Board