2022 NBA Draft Final Big Board: Part 2
Tiers 8 and 7 of our final big board look at guys who just missed receiving first-round grades but are still valued as important pieces to target in the beginning of the second
It’s here.
Finally.
Less than a week away, we are ready to start publishing our final version of the 2022 NBA Draft Big Board. Ours will come out in five separate installments going by tiers of talent, working our way up to the best of the best in this class.
If you want to skip the line and see the entire Big Board and Top-120, you can do so by subscribing to the Box and One’s paid membership plan, where our Big Board is live now and ready for all to access.
After looking at the fringe draftable prospects in Part One, let’s keep going here with Part Two, a look at some priority second-round prospects and guys we’d want to take a swing on just knocking on the door of the first round. Below you will see in-depth breakdowns of these prospects, as well as video scouting reports and an explanation of the tiers we cut our board into.
Tier 8: Priority Second-Round Players to Snag
We’re at the point where there are two pathways forming. There are the higher-risk investments, the guys who have a lot of raw tools, a playstyle that is conducive to high impact if it all gets harnessed or simply not ready for NBA minutes. Then there are the more dependable role players, the guys who likely don’t have star power in the NBA and, at best, will stick as complementary pieces. They don’t have the same floor of boom-or-bust that the other higher-risk guys have.
Based on a team’s risk profile or what type of impact they’re looking for (long-term payoff or short-term role fulfillment), they will look for different prospects. As a result, the difference between Tier 8 and Tier 7 is pretty thin, and fit plays a major role in determining whether an investment from a franchise is worthwhile for them. In essence, we could argue that every player in Tier 8 would be more valuable than any in Tier 7 — for the right team.
Because only about 20-25 prospects from each class make it, even these role players have some risk to them… not necessarily in projecting what type of role they’ll fill, but whether they’ll carve out rotational minutes doing so. Because of that, we put the role guys in 8 and the more volatile prospects in 7.
Think of them combined as the “fringe first-round” groups, the guys who we could understand and defend a first-round grade or selection on, but don’t quite get there for us. As a quick spoiler: we have only 22 players who received legitimate first-round grades, so anyone in tiers 7 or 8 would be guys we would consider in those final few spots in the first round.
8.36 - Jordan Hall, St. Joseph’s
Jordan Hall has been one of our sleepers all year. A hard-working late-bloomer out of Philadelphia, Hall stood out his freshman year at St. Joe’s as a great playmaker for his size. He ran the point, made great pass after great pass and held a bottom-feeder program afloat in the underratedly tough Atlantic 10. After that strong freshman campaign, Hall weighed three options: declare for the 2021 NBA Draft, transfer to Texas A&M, or go back to school at St. Joe’s.
Ultimately, he chose the latter, and wound up having a pretty solid season once again with the Hawks. Hall turned himself into a really good shooter, drilling deep 3-pointers off the bounce and once again carrying their offense. Hall doesn’t put a ton of pressure on the rim or play a physical style, but he’s very cerebral, has shot-making to play off-ball and is big for his position. All of those are traits we are suckers for when looking for role players.
While there are some legitimate defensive concerns, especially in terms of physicality, he’s too skilled on the offensive end to be passed up. At 6’8”, he plays like a point guard and can pass, dribble and shoot. He may go undrafted, but he’s a guy we’re willing to bet on as a priority in the second round. He’s our guy this year as the one who is low on mainstream draft radars but finds a way to outperform his stock.
8.35 - Jabari Walker, Colorado
Often overlooked in this draft class, Walker is only 19 on draft night and is coming off a college career that flashed a ton of coveted traits, albeit not very consistently. The key skill for Walker — and what any drafting team needs to feel comfortable with — is his shooting. If he can drill 36% of his 3-pointers and space the floor to the corners reliably, the athleticism and defense can propel him to minutes.
Per 40 minutes, he hauls in an insane 13.4 rebounds. That number should be higher than it is: he gets his paws on a fair amount of balls but doesn’t complete the secure. The ideal role for a guy like Walker is as Grant Williams-lite or a Dorian Finney-Smith. He needs to take almost all his shots from deep (and ideally the corners), improve his shooting to make that a valuable role for him, and buy into being versatile defensively. A really good athlete in some ways and poor in others, we have a tough time envisioning Walker being able to create his own shot at the NBA level and worry a good deal about his finishing.
But if he turns a bit into Grant — a defensive frontcourt swingman and a reliable 3-point threat — his impact on winning teams can easily be felt. The risk involved with his finishing and funky athleticism should leave him outside a first-round grade, but he’s a solid role piece in the 30s.
8.34 - Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
As we mentioned earlier, the days of the smaller point guard are quickly heading behind us. Chandler is an intriguing case study in smaller guards because, while he’s only six feet tall, he’s long (6’5” wingspan), bouncy (decent vertical and plays above the rim) and active defensively (one of the better players overall in this class analytically and in terms of steals). If Chandler were a little quicker and pressuring on-ball, we’d see the value he could bring in a defensive-stopper role at the point.
The runner, an important skill for undersized guards to master for NBA scoring, has its flaws but there were plenty of instances in the film where Chandler looks so comfortable taking them. Betting against Chandler adding that to his arsenal — and drafting him lower just because he doesn’t have it mastered at 18 — could be underselling on a high-upside creator over a nitpicky reason. The rest of his PNR arsenal is pretty solid, except for the shot.
A case can be made for Chandler in the first round. Young point guards with his feel can either be lottery guys or go on a Sharife Cooper type of slide due to the physical concerns. A wide range of selection points, but a pretty solid investment once we get into the 30s.
8.33 - EJ Liddell, Ohio State
Liddell brings value switching ball screens and guarding multiple positions. But if he’s going to play the 4 in the NBA and be more perimeter-bound, he has a lot of adjustments to make to his game in our opinion. The love over bigger, high-IQ guys who are positive defenders that comes from Grant Williams’ recent success ignores the necessity of smooth, quick and consistent 3-point shooting to fit that mold. If Grant were a poor shooter, he likely wouldn’t be worth the minutes he plays.
While Liddell went back to school to work on his jumper a season ago, the results are mixed. He made a higher percentage of his shots, but the form and it’s somewhat stiff or clunky nature don’t appeal to us. Like many other bigger-bodied wings, Liddell relies on his strength more than his quickness. That isn’t just because he has a great deal of physical prowess, it’s because he lacks quickness off the bounce. We don’t see Liddell putting much pressure on the rim in the half-court. He’s slow off to attack poor closeouts, doesn’t separate in isolation and has limited ball skills.
Regardless, this is a prospect with real defensive IQ, solid passing feel and a rare combination of physical traits. We wouldn’t quite take him in the top-25 range, but understand how he’s the right fit on a contending team that feels good about his shooting upside.
8.32 - Trevion Williams, Purdue
A bit of a controversial opinion here, Trevion Williams is one of our favorite sleepers in this draft class. Younger than Christian Koloko, Williams put together an impressive four-year career at Purdue. A lot is made about who he isn’t and the translation of what he lacks getting exposed in the NBA. To be clear: Williams isn’t a polished rim protector nor a switchable defender, he doesn’t have a consistent shot to 3-point range and was utilized a ton out of the post.
What we see with Trevion is a big man with a unique game and a legitimate outlier skill: he’s the best passer in this draft. Whether it’s in the post, atop the key in Delay actions, at the elbows as a creator or in other mismatch situations, his quickness of the bounce and elite basketball IQ are appealing to us. He’ll find ways to be a productive passer, no matter where he’s deployed.
While there are two glaring weaknesses to make up for (PNR defense and shooting range) that are typically killers for big men, we feel comfortable enough with the strides he’s making as a shooter to go after him in the early parts of the second round. It’s more likely than not that Williams is undrafted or goes after the 45th pick, but we have him as a prime value player in the second round.
8.31 - Justin Lewis, Marquette
Justin Lewis from Marquette is one of the toolsiest guys in this draft. His natural frame (6’7”, 7’2” wingspan, weighs 235 pounds) allows him to blend in with an NBA team right away. He’s a decent athlete, has insanely massive hands and covers ground both laterally and in straight lines. He isn’t the most imposing athlete vertically, but he’s a really well-rounded athlete who, at first glance, clearly belongs on an NBA court.
Dive into the skill level and Lewis is clearly nowhere near his apex. He doesn’t have enough comfort with his left hand and can get stranded near the rim when playing off two feet. Both lead to an alarmingly low conversion rate at the hoop — something that should never be the case for someone of his ilk.
The shooting improvement from freshman (21.9%) to sophomore year (34.9%) is noteworthy, but the form still isn’t the most consistent. He doesn’t have very good feel as a playmaker for others, and it’s hard to envision where his offensive impact will consistently come from if the shot regresses below where it’s currently at.
With all that said, Lewis’ raw toolbox is as rare and full as anyone in the second round of this draft class. If he taps into consistent shooting and greater attention to detail on defense, he’s a valuable 3-and-D guy who guards physically and can be a wing-stopper against the league’s elite.
Tier 7: High-Variance Guys Outside the 1st Round
There are plenty of guys who get the high-risk, high-reward moniker. Many more of them wind up in the first round. This list contains the guys who, for several reasons, are just outside that draftable range.
As we discussed in the description a little earlier, the difference in value is in the eye of the beholder and the risk they’re willing to undertake. What we can say about this group: they’re slightly outside the first round in our book and, while they have real first-round upside, the warning signs or indicators have us essentially saying “yeah… not a risk we’re going to take.”
You’ll also notice there are fewer than 30 players receiving first-round grades in this class. That doesn’t necessarily serve as a recommendation that a team in the late-20s go with one of these higher-upside plays than the prospects in Tier 8.
7.30 - Josh Minott, Memphis
What massive upside an athlete like Josh Minott possesses. Athletically, for such a young player, Minott is truly explosive. He utilizes it pretty well from a functional standpoint, too. He’s always playing in transition, shooting passing lanes on defense, flying all over the place and providing hustle and energy plays throughout. The big difference between him and another defensive-minded athlete whose game is unrefined in Kendall Brown: that elite motor.
Minott needs to work on his shooting release, and to do so badly. He takes very few 3-pointers, makes even fewer, and the shot looks poor on all of them. It’s a major factor that prevents an energy big like Minott from neatly fitting into any type of role player slot smoothly, and why he finds himself outside of a first-round spot on our board.
We happen to buy into Minott’s defense a fair amount. He’s both multi-positional and quick on the perimeter, can turn into a small-lineup 5-man due to his shot blocking and leaping, and has good instincts as a helper. There’s a small amount of playmaking present to the point where he isn’t a zero in terms of feel, but the entire offensive game is so unrefined that it’s hard to predict at this stage what he’ll do well on that end. One of the top gambles we’d love to make at the start of the second round or final few picks in the first.
7.29 - Ismael Kamagate, Paris
Kamagate is the third true center on our board in this class, behind the likes of Mark Williams and Jalen Duren (no — Chet isn’t a center to us). Kamagate flashes a lot of potential tools on both ends. He’s good in Drop coverage and can really alter shots at the rim. He has great athleticism, solid touch, and a very competitive motor. The way he out-performed big man and projected #1 overall pick in 2023 Victor Wembanyama showed that there’s an NBA future for Kamagate.
The rest of the arsenal is still a tad unrefined. Flashes of jump shooting are really nice to see, but not there yet. The same goes with switchability on the perimeter, playmaking out of the short roll and scoring off one bounce or more. Flashes is the best way to describe Kamagate. Perhaps that’s worth a draft-and-stash in the first round, but for where he is today and the multitude of talents we could play the “where he could be in two years” game at this stage of the draft, Kamagate is more of a high-variance outcome guy than a true first-rounder.
7.28 - Nikola Jovic, Mega
At the beginning of this draft cycle, we had Nikola Jovic as a top-ten prospect on our board. At first glance, it was easy to buy into such a unique prospect. At 6’10”, Jovic has an unbelievable amount of offensive skill. He’s fluid in the open floor as a rebound-and-run player, he has exceptional handling and great passing feel. He’s shot the ball well from 3, has some pull-up scoring in his bag and is athletic enough to finish above the rim.
Jovic had an awful start to the season in terms of shooting and carving out a role on his pro team that would allow him to play to his strengths. Those struggles really diminished his minutes because, as was made clear during that stretch, he has major issues defensively. Jovic rarely stays in front of guys, fouls a ton and lacks a natural position to defend.
Our evaluation on Jovic has evolved into viewing him like a stretch-4 whose role is to come in only off the bench or against teams who have the personnel to hide him on. The offensive talent and upside is basically lottery-caliber. But we foresee a legitimate cap on minutes for him due to the defense, and that greatly devalues the special skills he brings to the table.
7.27 - Blake Wesley, Notre Dame
Wesley has turned into a challenging evaluation for us. At one point during the Spring, we were in on Wesley with a pick in the late teens. It’s easy to see why. He’s naturally fairly long, has a good deal of athleticism and explosiveness, three-level scoring potential, flashes of respectable on-ball defense and a little bit of playmaking.
The recent downturn on Wesley has been a review of game film and analytical models that point to just how far away from an impact he is. Wesley’s finishing was of concern, his jumper needs a few mechanical tweaks (especially in spot-up situations) and the defense is farther away than originally anticipated.
The bad habits on offense need to be kicked, and need to be kicked immediately. Wesley likely needs a year or so in the G-League, and we don’t believe his off-ball play is consistent enough from Day One to be a bench contributor in the interm. There’s a little bit of Jaylen Brown here: a ton of raw skill and natural strength, but it will take a few years before his game, handling, shooting and ability to consistently score become refined.
As you’ll see in the subsequent parts of this mock draft, there are not 30 guys ahead of Wesley, so he’s still a guy we would take in the first round of this draft. But he hasn’t earned the first-round grade outright.
7.26 - MarJon Beauchamp, G-League Ignite
Four schools in four years. The G-League Ignite. The circuitous path that MarJon Beauchamp has traveled at only 21 years old has been unconventional to say the least. A common first-round prospect for many, he combines the high upside of some one-on-one scoring (highlighted in the video above) with consistent defense and top-tier athleticism. Some may see him as a first-rounder due to the high floor on defense and exclude him from this high-variance position.
To us, Beauchamp’s catch-and-shoot upside isn’t what we had hoped. The simplicity of his role — and its importance — on this year’s G-League ignite team makes us really doubt whether he’ll buy into the necessary development of being an off-ball scorer as opposed to being an on-ball one. Depending on which role he embraces, the floor for production changes.
Credit to Beauchamp for his maturation process, the use of his athleticism when picking his spots and how he seems to embrace coming into an NBA team to work hard. MarJon is a good upside gamble and could even be the right kind of guy for us to consider in the late-20s.
7.25 - Tari Eason, LSU
Eason is as enigmatic of a prospect as there is in this class. There are a crazy wide range of outcomes for him, and while we’ve personally struggled to see the major upside and impact, the production is impossible to deny.
Here’s the good: Per 100 possessions, Eason averaged a whopping 39.4 points, 15.4 rebounds and shot 36% from 3 on 5.5 attempts. The only players in NBA history to do that? Joel Embiid this year and DeMarcus Cousins in 2016-17. Eason combined those 39.4 points per 100 possessions with 4.5 steals and 2.5 blocks. Nobody has ever met that threshold in NBA history.
And now the frustrating: Dating back to 2009, no prospect has seen such a high usage rate, low assist rate and high turnover threshold and gotten drafted. Andrew Nicholson at St. Bonaventure did it as a junior, improved by his senior year and wound up a first-round selection. Eason flashes a lot of impressive metrics that illustrate his scoring prowess, but the lack of playmaking feel given his volume is truly impressive.
Offensively, the numbers can point to any outcome you’d be searching for: crazy amounts of production but low feel. Our eye test matches more with the lack of feel. He struggles to make plays for others, doesn’t shoot it off the dribble and only drives hard to his right hand. The production might indicate that, even with those limitations, it may not matter: he’s just too good at getting to his spots.
We’d feel more comfortable in throwing a developmental spot to Eason if we really bought into some sort of offensive role. While athletic and long, he has a few habits on defense we don’t love as well, and questions about his basketball intelligence and feel are pervasive on both ends. Honestly, Eason is closer to falling out of the first round than going in the top-10 for us, and the current ranking on our board does a decent job of encapsulating that risk. He’s a wild card, and a little too wild of a play for my generally risk-averse style.
7.24 - Malaki Branham, Ohio State
Look, we certainly understand the pitch for a guy like Malaki Branham. He’s a high-character kid, a physical wing who really scores it and can make 40% of his catch-and-shoots. He got so much better as the year went along, basically leading the Buckeyes offense and scoring close to 20 a game near the end of the season. That alone is rare enough from a freshman to be considered in the first round.
A huge part of the draft process is looking at talented guys and saying “we get the appeal, but he’s not the type of investment we like to make.” Branham is that guy for us this year. His style of play is slower and more methodical, not explosive and space-creating. Stylistically, we prefer those natural traits from a primary option. He’s far too mid-range based for our style, rarely taking 3-pointers off the bounce. The off-ball trust isn’t quite there from us, and the defense was really a mess at Ohio State.
Branham has worked to address the defensive end in workout settings and is, by all accounts, one of the nicest and hardest working guys in this class. We just aren’t drawn to his style of play, think there’s a fair amount of risk if he isn’t a top-three scoring option on his team, and are very far out of the defense. There’s something about him as a person and a competitor that is special, though, which allows us to believe that, if we got him in a development system we were in charge of, we could make him into a little more aesthetically pleasing of a prospect.
7.23 - Bryce McGowens, Nebraska
Right now, Bryce McGowens’ offensive game has plenty of holes. His pull-up jumper (only 24.4% in the half-court) is somewhat projectable in space but is based on upside more than current impact. He’s severely right-hand dominant as a driver and doesn’t have consistent deceleration traits or elite touch near the hoop. McGowens has a tendency to put his head down and focus solely on getting to the rim. The statistics back this up to an astounding degree. Since 2010, only two college freshmen have played 1000 minutes, scored 16 per game, have a usage rate over 26% and an assist rate below 10%: Jabari Parker and Bryce McGowens.
McGowens shows first-round potential simply because of how quickly he gets to the rim and how he excels at space creation. He’s a 6’7” guard who can handle and is very smooth off the bounce. That’s a tantalizing package to work with, and at only 19 years old he can be molded by an NBA team willing to make a multi-year investment in his future.
As a talent, we tend to want to bet on guys who can score it at a high level and who thrive at creating space for themselves and others. McGowens can definitely score it, and if you’re going to start somewhere as a base for building an NBA-caliber guard, that’s a good place to begin.
McGowens desperately needs on-ball reps in the G-League. His off-ball offense isn’t great right now (though a catch-and-shoot impact isn’t out of the question), but getting reps running an offense can go a long way in mitigating those aforementioned concerns by the time he’s at the NBA level. McGowens has a fighting mentality, thrives off contact and shows flashes of three-level scoring. Nebraska wasn’t a great situation for McGowens, and we desperately want to see him surrounded by better 3-point shooters and in an optimal context for his development.
Click here for Part 3 of our 2022 NBA Draft Big Board