2023 NBA Draft Reactions
2023 NBA Draft Reactions
Some thoughts on how draft night went down, analyzing team fits, Cam Whitmore's slides, asset management, and why I cannot stand draft grades
Last night was fun, wasn’t it?
The NBA Draft was a night where teenage dreams were fulfilled and the hard work of countless NBA prospects paid off when they got to hear their names announced at the podium. Even though I cover this league professionally and spend a ton of time nitpicking their on-court performances, I cannot help but still cheer for all of them on draft night and be thrilled to see their dreams come to fruition.
But how did draft night actually go? What were some of the major takeaways from the night — from the trades, the directions franchises are going, the differences in my board and the results on draft night? Were there truly any major surprises?
I’ll share some thoughts on that here, although I take it with a grain of salt. What you will notice is that I do not include ‘draft grades’ in my analysis. Draft grades are, in my opinion, the absolute dumbest way to go about analyzing the decisions made by a front office, for the following reasons:
Front offices have more information than I do! They know the directions their front offices will go, what positional needs may arise that do not now, they have dozens of scouts and staff members to dedicate their full-time jobs to this stuff. I don’t. It would be silly for me to posture and feel like I know something better than they do.
Every grade would be an ‘incomplete’. Like… what are we grading? Just our perceived view of their asset management and whether they ‘reached’ for a player based on mainstream draft coverage or my own individual thoughts? I can disagree with a few parts of the analysis, but time may really bear out that they are correct and made the right decision. Or it could do the opposite. Either way, we have absolutely no clue right now. Giving some sort of grade now makes no sense.
The Lion’s Share of these prospects’ development still lies ahead. If none of these players get better between where they are now and where they need to be in five years, only 2-3 of them would stick in the NBA. Seriously… guys have to get so much better from where they are now to make an impact. It’s impossible to know exactly where on a prospect’s developmental trajectory you’re getting in at. There are always off-court things that can arise (injury, drama, etc.) to interrupt that trajectory. And the onus is on the coaching staff and developmental teams to lay the proper plan to get draft picks better. Sometimes it doesn’t stick. I don’t see the sense in assigning a grade before knowing what the developmental plan is for how each player is going to get better. Since that isn’t public information, we’ll just have to wait and see.
Rule #10 of The Ten Commandments of NBA Draft Scouting states that it’s really about the people, not just about the skills they have. If that’s the case, I’m going to trust that the front offices do their due diligence on the people and have a better feel for that aspect than I do sitting at home.
Okay. Deep breath. That rant is off my chest. I do want to provide some feedback and thoughts on how the draft went… things that are interesting, areas where value might have more easily been found, directions that teams are going, and a prospect-centric lens to where these players wound up.
The Cam Whitmore Scenario
Earlier this week, some information began to trickle out about a potential draft-day slide for Villanova athlete Cam Whitmore. Some folks, like ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, surmised that a combination of factors led to him falling out of favor late, and ESPN’s Jeremy Woo discussed the chatter about the medicals more directly.
More often than not, a draft day slide purely about the medicals tends to come back to bite a team more often than not. We saw that in 2018 with Michael Porter Jr., which is just one of a number of examples of this phenomenon. Whitmore is clearly one of the most talented athletes in this class and has found ways to put that athleticism to great use before.
As for the personality stuff, I think Cam has always been a quiet guy. He’s proven that throughout the pre-draft process, as well as dating back to his younger years. It stands to make sense that he wouldn’t be a ‘wow’ interview for these teams. But my experience with Cam has been different.
I’ve said before that being quiet or not being a Type A personality often leads to others misconstruing you as not being competitive, a leader, or even as being a positive presence in the locker room. I have limited personal experience with Whitmore in my past, coaching against him twice when he was in high school and knowing more of the folks and coaches around him than knowing Cam himself. But what always stood out to me was one positive interaction of his which, at 17, showed some real maturity on his part.
I wanted to make sure I shared that story on a night when various medical pieces and perhaps some questions about his reserved nature contributed to a draft night slide:
Leadership comes out in many ways. I’m not pretending that I know Whitmore better than these NBA teams got to, or that I’m aware of exactly all the medical information about him and what it means long-term. As I’ve often admitted, I’m the farthest thing from a biomechanical expert. But I do dislike the snowball effect that takes place when one piece of ‘intel’ comes out on a young man in the public sphere. People are complicated with layers and so many different traits; some people may click with you and some may not. I always appreciated Cam for the one interaction with him I had.
As for his time in Houston, it’s a no-brainer move for the Rockets. They are instantly going to become the most athletic team in the NBA. There are areas of his game he needs to tighten and clean up, and he’s still super young. But for him, landing in Houston is a pretty good scenario.
Intel Working & the ‘Move Down’ Asset Management Game
I’m a huge proponent of just taking your guy when you’re on the clock. If you have one dude, don’t risk losing him by trading down and playing the asset management game: trying to squeeze extra picks out of everyone else by guessing that he’ll still be available later. But that risk is greatly mitigated when you only move down a spot or two, meaning the opportunities for disruption to your plan are minimal.
If you can get a great read on what the team or two behind you is doing or wants — and then position yourself as a team that they need to trade up with in order to get that guy — the asset management game can be wildly successful.
Two teams played that well on Thursday night. First was the Indiana Pacers. They were sitting at #7 overall, fully intending on taking Jarace Walker, which had been fairly commonly reported heading into the draft. Right behind them (Washington at #8 and Utah at #9) were two teams potentially really enamored with Metropolitans 92 athlete Bilal Coulibaly. Indiana, it would appear, played the threat of Utah (or someone else) trading up to 7 against Washington. The Wizards moved up one spot to ensure nobody else leapfrogged them and took Coulibaly, while the Pacers got their guy, moved down a spot to do so, and picked up a few spare pieces in the process. Really shrewd work by the Pacers’ front office, and probably the right move for the Wizards to play along once they knew Coulibaly was their guy.
Only a few selections later, we saw this game play out again. Oklahoma City moved up from 12 to 10 in order to select Cason Wallace. They didn’t want to risk something happening with Orlando at 11, or with another team who would move up into the 10 spot with Dallas — that pick was rumored to be available. Sam Presti & company couldn’t sit idly and just hope that nothing happened with their guy in those 15 minutes. The reason you go out and build a treasure trove of assets in the way the Thunder have is to ensure something like that doesn’t happen. They made the decision to take on the Davis Bertans contract in order to move up those two spots and grab a guy like Cason.
For Dallas, this was a really smart way of extracting value out of the top-10 pick, and it started the domino effect for what was a brilliant draft night. They got the same guy they otherwise would have at 10 two spots later and shed the Bertans contract in the process. That created a traded player exception (TPE) for the Mavs to absorb some salary in. They used that TPE only an hour later to take on Richaun Holmes from Sacramento, and for their trouble, picked up the 24th pick and selected Olivier-Maxence Prosper in the process.
Dallas walks away with a reshuffled frontcourt, two young defensive-minded players who fit their vision, and a great haul on draft night. All four teams mentioned here come out ahead; it may not have been the sexiest or most newsworthy swaps we’ve ever seen, but it’s great work by all sides.
That Jett Howard Surprise at #11
For those of you who tuned into The Game Theory Podcast live show with myself and Sam Vecenie, you saw my shock when the Orlando Magic took Jett Howard at #11. A lot of that surprise came from a lack of intel that I had about Howard going that high being a possibility. I was a little lower on Jett (#22 on my board), which is still a really strong first-round grade. But my questions over Jett as a defender were a little larger than the ones I had about Gradey Dick, who was still on the board there.
The more I’ve had time to digest and think about it, the more I think Orlando is a pretty good landing spot for Jett and the franchise is in a position to extract value from him in a meaningful way. Howard is essentially a 6’8” 2-guard, and he can play that role on a supremely long-armed roster for years to come. The Magic needed floor spacing and movement shooting, and their affinity for taking players from Michigan who played for Juwan Howard is notable at this point. It’s worked out well for them before.
More than anything, I think what Jett is poor at on the offensive end is really well-blanketed in Orlando. He’s not going to be asked to generate rim pressure — they already have a lot of guys who do so. He gets to slide next to enough primary creators in Anthony Black, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz, and even Jalen Suggs that his on-ball touches will be limited. Orlando is a pretty solid spot for him to end up.
It’s clearly defensible that Howard is as good of a shooting prospect as a guy like Gradey Dick. Howard is better off the dribble with his counter-moves, without question in my mind. And the ankle injury Jett suffered can be seen as a reason for some lack of burst that hampered him on both ends. It was a surprise on draft night because of much of the intel pre-draft and the expectations I set up based on my own preferences. Looking back, it’s not too surprising of a move.
Doubling Down on Identity vs. Adding a New Element
Roster-building is hard. There is such a thing as “too much of the same type of player”. Just ask the Toronto Raptors the last two seasons, who have tried to jam too many non-shooting wing/ forward types onto the roster at the same time.
Yet finding an identity and believing in a certain player type to win in the modern NBA isn’t all that radical. The challenge lies in finding the balance: of knowing when to keep doubling down on the archetype you believe in (and risking there being too much of it and not enough variety on your roster) or when to bring a new element to the table that could either disrupt that identity or truly maximize it.
The Detroit Pistons at #5 were the team that really doubled-down on their identity, drafting Ausar Thompson as a toolsy connective combo guard to go with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. The Pistons are desperate for more floor spacing, and haven’t taken a first-round shooter since selecting Cade two years ago.
Time will tell if Ausar is the right fit here and the guy who enables them to just overwhelm opponents with their length and decision-making. He feels like a very Troy Weaver kind of guy.
The Lack of Trades & the Upcoming CBA
I’ll be honest, I expected more movement, particularly in the back-half of the first round.
A pretty quick explanation of why those moves didn’t really come to fruition: there isn’t a consensus yet about what the revised CBA will mean for roster construction. The third two-way deal, second-round exception for signing rookie scale deals, the tax penalties and loss of exceptions when above a certain threshold… they all will matter in some way and change the landscape of roster construction. There’s just no consensus on how they’ll do that or what the best method of asset management is based on each team’s position.
We saw a lot more movement once we got into the second round, but only the 25th pick changed hands on draft night in the 20-30 range. The second-round seemed like an attractive spot to buy into, both in terms of talent available and the differing value and flexibility of those contracts. But I was a little surprised more teams didn’t try to jump the line and get into the later part of the first round.
Some of my Favorite Fits
While I’m not going to assign grades, I will briefly talk about a few landing spots which I believe will be positive ones for the players who got there:
Jordan Hawkins in New Orleans: Willie Green is a great offensive coach, and the gravity-inducing sets that he’ll run with Hawkins next to Zion Williamson will be a ton of fun. We’ve seen the blueprint laid before when JJ Redick was in New Orleans playing with Zion. I expect we’ll see similar stuff here, but this is the most creative destination for Hawkins (a shooter who is reliant on creative offenses for maximum impact) to land.
Kobe Bufkin in Atlanta: The Quin Snyder offense is so well-designed for Bufkin to be successful it’s not even funny. He provides real versatility as the third guard in their backcourt next to Trae Young and Dejounte Murray; he can play next to either of them seamlessly. Bufkin probably needed to go somewhere where he wouldn’t be the #1 option and a high-volume PNR guy early in his career… he still needs some reps and seasoning before that role comes. But the optimal spacing of Snyder’s offenses in the past and his desire to inculcate multiple ball handlers means Bufkin may not get lost in the fray next to two other guards. I really like this spot for him.
Brandin Podziemski in Golden State: With the Warriors’ offensive system, Podziemski stands out as one of the best fits for their style of play and what they want to accomplish. While I have my defensive concerns (especially in a switching scheme), Podz is as sharp as they come on offense and has a ton of flexibility to dart off screens or play off-ball. This was the ideal landing spot for him, in my opinion.
Ben Sheppard in Indiana: Love the idea of Sheppard playing the 2-guard next to Tyrese Haliburton. Awesome floor-spacer whose game will pop next to Hali’s, and the multitude of actions Rick Carlisle runs can be a positive for Sheppard with his basketball IQ and connective passing. I expect him to thrive in Indiana.
As for my favorite ‘fits, Gradey Dick looked absolutely incredible in his bedazzled bright red jacket and shirt. What an unbelievable choice on his part, I absolutely love it. Kobe Bufkin’s lack of a shirt threw me for a loop (I didn’t know that’s acceptable fashion nowadays) but he looked pretty tough. The Thompson Twins and Vic both looked classy, Scoot Henderson’s suit was snazzy and had a fun story behind it, and I appreciated the simplicity of Bilal Coulibaly’s approach.
Coach Spins’ fashion grade: A- from this year’s Green Room invitees.