2023 NBA Mock Draft 1.3 (Part One)

A late-January mock draft update, with our first team-by-team guide for draft fits

As January closes, the NBA and college basketball worlds are both growing closer to certainty of their situations. Within the next two weeks, we’ll know which NBA teams are buyers or sellers at the deadline, with some strengthening their odds at gaining the top overall pick and others giving away their first-round draft selections altogether. Roster fits will become more clear as well.

On the college side, we’re deep enough into conference play to have legitimate ideas about each prospect and where they must improve. The sample size isn’t too small as we approach 20 games into the year.

As a result, it’s the perfect time to drop another mock draft — this time in a slightly different fashion. Before releasing the video version on YouTube, we’re going to put out our first round over a three-day period here on our Substack. Within the mock draft, we’ll be drafting for specific teams (based on the inverse standings from the first day of the mock) and breaking down how each prospect drafted would fit with that team’s current roster.

We get underway today with a look at the top ten.

1. Houston Rockets - Victor Wembanyama, Metropolitans 92

No surprise at the top, as Wembanyama has been the top prospect in our rankings since last year’s draft. Wemby combines freakish size (7’4” with a nearly 8’0” wingspan) with unheard-of skill. Wembanyama is hitting runners from behind the 3-point line, isolation turnarounds from either wing, mind-boggling dunks, and sports a handle to break players down off the bounce.

The biggest strength of Wembanyama is his defense, though. He can come into any situation and change the trajectory of a franchise because of how insane his shot blocking prowess is. Victor can play either frontcourt position, is fine guarding on the perimeter, and locks down a defense playing in any pick-and-roll coverage. His upside is as high as any prospect we’ve ever seen, while the production he’s achieving at a professional level over in France makes him nearly certain to be a star.

Should Wembanyama land in Houston, the Rockets get a defensive failsafe around their already young and offensive-minded core. He blends well with almost any player or type, and is far too good to be avoided by any team that winds up with the top selection.

2. Detroit Pistons - Scoot Henderson, G-League Ignite

Were it not for Wembanyama, Henderson would be a shoo-in to be the top overall pick. He’s one of the best guard prospects we’ve ever scouted, with great athletic burst, a tremendously diverse scoring package, and impressive feel as a passer. Scoot is best coming off ball screens and shows legitimate three-level scoring potential. He’s still refining his 3-point jump shot off the dribble, but is connecting on the ones he’s taking this year. Combine that with an elite mid-range pull-up and Henderson is a threat across the board.

Scoot loves to live in transition, pushing tempo with all-out assaults on the rim. His highlight package is pristine, though it overshadows just how consistently solid he is as a decision-maker. Still super young, Henderson has all the tools to grow into a sturdy point-of-attack defender, and with a little added muscle, he might be switchable across different backcourt positions.

There are discussions about whether the Detroit Pistons should take Scoot given the fact they have Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey on their roster. Scoot is too elite of a prospect to be avoided at number two and would push Ivey to another location. You simply don’t avoid drafting Henderson based on any talent you have. He’s that good.

3. Charlotte Hornets - Amen Thompson, Overtime Elite

On upside alone, Amen Thompson stands out in a freakish tier within this draft class. His athletic traits are supremely rare, as he combines an elite vertical burst with one of the best first steps we’ve ever seen. Amen is a walking paint touch, and he converts around the basket more times than not. That has a ton of value as a starting point for skill development.

Amen still has a lot of work to do with his skill development. He’s a really cerebral passer and makes fantastic decisions, meaning the best role for him is with the ball in his hands. But Amen is woefully inefficient as a scorer outside of six feet, completely changing the way he’s guarded. If Thompson is to become a primary option in the NBA, adding a jump shot will be a necessity.

The highlight-reel upside of Amen next to LaMelo Ball should put butts in the seats in Charlotte while they continue to search for young talent. Surrounding two transcendent passers and transition players with a bunch of role players could have a bountiful reward for the Hornets.

4. San Antonio Spurs - Brandon Miller, Alabama

For some reason, Miller has become a prospect largely under the microscope despite consistent improvement and steadily high-level production as a freshman. Miller is one of the best shooters in all of college basketball, and at 6’9” he shoots over the top of almost everyone. He’s great off the catch, the dribble, and even off screens.

Miller’s improved throughout the season as a handler and a finisher. His frame is thin and footwork still subpar inside, but he is learning to make up for a lack of vertical explosion by playing at varying speeds. He can handle and create a bit from the perimeter and looks comfortable operating in the pick-and-roll. The defense is solid thanks to his size, but there’s so much offensive upside he brings to the table.

Miller can play either frontcourt position, which is why he’d mesh really well in San Antonio. The Spurs’ renowned development system would really bring out so much in Miller as a playmaker, and his confidence and shot-making give him superstar upside if he can become a tad more well-rounded.

5. Orlando Magic - Cam Whitmore, Villanova

Whitmore is built like a tank and has extreme vertical pop to play above the rim frequently. He can bully his way to the rim, and thanks to a solid enough handle, he can get there around bigger guys placed upon him, too. He’s an old-school mismatch wing who plays a physical style, likes the ball in his hands, and is getting very comfortable as a jump shooter. If he can become lethal from deep, he’ll be really hard to stop one-on-one.

Whitmore has a few flaws that have been exposed in his time at Villanova, mainly with his playmaking for others. He’s wired to score, even though he lacks a really deep bag in isolations. If Whitmore wants the ball in his hands at the next level, he’ll need to create for his teammates at a much higher clip and make faster decisions off the catch.

In Orlando, Whitmore can join a team that is prioritizing size and length as a bully-ball wing. He’s probably best in a place where he’s more of a third fiddle and not saddled with the creation burden for the entire team. Orlando seems to offer that opportunity with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner already on the roster.

6. Toronto Raptors - Ausar Thompson, Overtime Elite

Regardless of what happens with the Raptors at the trade deadline, Masai Ujiri seems to prioritize drafting positional length, work ethic, and athleticism. Ausar Thompson fits in that mold perfectly. He’s super smart and has a fantastic work ethic. He’s really bursty in the open floor and plays above the rim frequently; he’s not as powerful a leaper or twitchy as his twin brother Amen, but he’s still a high-caliber athlete. At 6’7”, Ausar plays really big for a potential point guard.

The passing feel is notable for Ausar, and he’s started to make strides as a shooter this year. He reads the game very well and is at least confident enough to take open catch-and-shoot jumpers. The shot is still very far away, and the Raptors already have so many questionable shooting wings on their roster. Still, Ausar is smart enough to know how to play with his limitations — he’s a fantastic cutter and moves well off-ball.

On defense, Ausar fits what the Raptors look for: he’s multi-positional, smart, and will get into the basketball. He knows how to take risks (and when not to) in passing lanes. He’s not a perfect defender by any means, but he does fit their team while being one of the best, highest-upside talents left on the board at 6.

7. Washington Wizards - Keyonte George, Baylor

It’s been an up-and-down few weeks for George, but we are incredibly impressed by his confidence, rapid defensive improvement, shot-making upside, and really good feel for when to score and when to pass. He’s a strong 6’4” point guard, and while athleticism is not his calling card, he’s crafty at getting to his spots in the mid-range and cerebral at using the pick-and-roll.

The best trait George brings to fit next to another star in the NBA is his shooting ability. There have been several games where George catches fire and looks like one of the best shooters in this draft class. He’d be a great fit next to Bradley Beal in Washington because he knows how to pick his spots and is a credible threat off-ball.

George has to keep getting better on the defensive end, and his lack of burst to get to the rim is notable. That said, his feel for the game is greatly underappreciated and remains one of the reasons we think he’ll wind up in the top-half of the lottery.

8. New Orleans Pelicans - Nick Smith, Arkansas

With the playoff-bound Pelicans on the clock at 8, there are many different directions they could go. Adding another elite shot-maker to their backcourt to space the floor around Zion Williamson is a low-risk proposition, especially considering the depth of wings they’ve already amassed. Smith has top-three upside in this class, something he hasn’t gotten to show this year at Arkansas due to injury. He is elite in catch-and-shoot settings, can drill shots off screens, and is slippery enough to get his own shot off when driving.

Smith is very skinny and likely needs some time to add muscle to his frame before being a postseason contributor. He’s not a pure 1, but too thin to play most 2s in the NBA today. However, Smith could be the perfect guy to get the torch from CJ McCollum in a few years as a pseudo point guard who easily slides off-ball when the other stars (Zion and Brandon Ingram) need to take over.

9. Portland Trail Blazers - Jarace Walker, Houston

After the top eight, there’s a slight dropoff from high-level scoring contributions, and we pivot more toward really high-end role players who can play starter minutes. Jarace Walker is a thick-bodied forward with great defensive tools, a relentless motor, and a developing catch-and-shoot jumper. He’s the consummate glue guy, throwing his frame around on the defensive end while successfully guarding 2 thru 5. He can be a small-ball big in some lineups (the Blazers desperately need one of those) while coexisting next to any type of star. He works in switchable schemes or against bigger scoring wings one-on-one.

On offense, Walker is a smart passer within a team scheme. He can create at the elbows or atop the key, and has been really good for the Cougars off the short roll this year. The jumper is a tad slow and needs to speed up, but it’s likely Walker is either a fourth or fifth option on offense, so he should get a decent amount of open looks.

Portland feels like the ideal landing spot for Walker, and he fits what they need positionally. Don’t expect too much from Jarace off the dribble, but he’s a good connector piece at an important pro position.

10. Orlando Magic - Cason Wallace, Kentucky

The second pick for the Magic in the top ten, Wallace is the low-risk swing in the back-half of the lottery that often helps vault teams to contenders more quickly. Wallace already carries himself like a pro; he shows up and competes every game, knows his roles and limitations, and is probably the smartest defender in this class. Wallace puts the clamps on opposing guards regularly, he’s strong enough to hold his own down low in mismatch situations, and he flies around in passing lanes to create havoc whenever he feels like it.

On offense, Cason could be the next in line to receive a huge boost from leaving Kentucky, as several guards have shown more in a pro system than allowed to in Lexington. Wallace doesn’t strike us as the highest-upside self-creator; he’s a little boxy of an athlete and doesn’t have a great pull-up jumper. But he’s a smart secondary creator, good enough in spot-up situations, and so good on defense that he’ll get the opportunity to stay on the floor in the pros.

The Magic could have a potentially lethal defensive backcourt with Wallace and Suggs. While there isn’t elite shooting between them, those two could be major disruptors while yielding the offensive creation duties to frontcourt folks like Wagner and Banchero. The Orlando backcourt is a bit of a logjam right now, so adding another lottery talent may feel confusing. But the wings are just as jammed, and Wallace is a clearly better prospect than any frontcourt piece still on the board.