2023 NBA Mock Draft 1.3 (Part Three)

A late-January mock draft update, with our first team-by-team draft fits inclusion

As January closes, the NBA and college basketball worlds are both growing closer to certainty of their situations. Within the next two weeks, we’ll know which NBA teams are buyers or sellers at the deadline, with some strengthening their odds at gaining the top overall pick and others giving away their first-round draft selections altogether. Roster fits will become more clear as well.

On the college side, we’re deep enough into conference play to have legitimate ideas about each prospect and where they must improve. The sample size isn’t too small as we approach 20 games into the year.

As a result, it’s the perfect time to drop another mock draft — this time in a slightly different fashion. Before releasing the video version on YouTube, we’re going to put out our first round over a three-day period here on our Substack. Within the mock draft, we’ll be drafting for specific teams (based on the inverse standings from the first day of the mock) and breaking down how each prospect drafted would fit with that team’s current roster.

We close out the first round today with a look at selections 21-30.

21. New York Knicks - Terquavion Smith, NC State

While the Knicks feel pretty set at the guard spots with Jalen Brunson, Immanuel Quickley and Deuce McBride, adding a true scoring option in Terquavion Smith could give the Knicks that small dose of second-unit offense that allows their stars to play together more often. We’ve seen what value can come from a role like that in Denver, where Bones Hyland has run the show to keep the starting group together.

Smith has his warts as a defender, but he’s become a more willing passer this year as a sophomore with the Wolfpack. He’s lightning quick, takes (and makes) one logo 3-pointer seemingly every game, and has confidence that is unmatched. He’s a great kid who will only be a positive locker room presence, can play off-ball due to his high-caliber shooting, and is an injection of scoring and energy as soon as he walks on the floor.

22. Los Angeles Lakers - Kyle Filipowski, Duke

If we’re being honest, it doesn’t feel likely that the Lakers keep this selection as they hope to field a veteran-based group around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Filipowski checks the boxes of being one of the best players still available and a potential frontcourt fit next to both of the Lakers stars.

Filipowski has a reputation as a floor-spacing big, but his overall athleticism, driving ability, interior finishing, and strong presence on the glass makes him so much more. He’s been the best freshman in the ACC all season long and is averaging 15 and 10 in conference play. In the right role off the bench, Kyle can contribute to an NBA team that surrounds him with rim protection.

23. Sacramento Kings - Dereck Lively, Duke

There’s no mincing words here: Lively was the top high school prospect in the country last year and has disappointed in his time at Duke. He’s often jettisoned to the bench in favor of upperclassmen, finds himself in foul trouble frequently, and hasn’t produced much on the offensive end. As a 7’1” screen-and-roll big, a large part of his offensive woes comes from suboptimal usage at Duke. Pairing him with a juiced up and well-spaced NBA offense, as well as a talented pick-and-roll guard, is just what he needs.

The Kings offer such an environment and do have a long-term need for a rim protecting piece. That’s what Lively brings to the table: his game is built around rim protection, even if he isn’t the most polished or consistent at it yet. A preseason top-ten talent, it’d be hard to envision Lively slipping all the way out of the first round with his better fit in pro basketball than the collegiate game. Sacramento feels like a great destination for him as well.

24. Indiana Pacers - DaRon Holmes, Dayton

One of the most productive yet unheralded bigs in the country, sophomore DaRon Holmes is supremely athletic and active. He’s your traditional screen-and-roll big but has real passing chops, which he showcases at the elbows, on the short roll, and out of the post. His motor drives him to success though, as he sprints the floor in transition and constantly crashes for second-chance points. The jumper is a work in progress, but he’s shown a little willingness to take them (3-9 from deep on the season).

For the Pacers, the roulette wheel of long-term big man prospects continues. Isaiah Jackson, Jalen Smith, Goga Bitadze… they all are good but not great options. Holmes is a little more undersized and may not be truly switchable by design, but he could be the right high-feel playmaker and lob threat to pair with a transcendent playmaker like Tyrese Haliburton.

25. Brooklyn Nets - Jordan Hawkins, Connecticut

An elite shooter, Hawkins can catch fire in any moment. When he’s on, he’s one of the most dangerous college scorers in the entire country. As he goes, so go the Huskies, as opponents have figured out that he’s the most important player to take away because of the offensive advantage he gives his teams. Hawkins is 6’5” and athletic, allowing him to play as a smaller wing more than a true lead guard. He does very little inside the 3-point line on offense, but is sturdy enough to be a plus defender.

For the Nets, Hawkins gives them a good athlete to develop into a good backcourt floor-spacer next to Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. There are many directions the Nets could go with this pick, and the organization’s continued lean into shooting around its stars makes him a fascinating fit.

26. Houston Rockets - Rayan Rupert, New Zealand Breakers

Rupert looks the part of a major disruptive force. He’s got over a 7’0” wingspan, has some point guard skills, and is starting to develop a legitimate catch-and-shoot jumper. He doesn’t really have a true position, he’s just a really impressive defender who has the requisite level of skills on offense to be able to find a home.

The jump shot has to keep getting better, especially if he’s going to play next to Victor Wembanyama (who we had the Rockets taking first overall earlier in the mock). Rupert needs a few years of development to truly be NBA-ready, but if the Rockets decide to lather their roster with length and defensive upside, Rupert makes for an exciting fit with his fellow Frenchman.

27. Utah Jazz - Kel’El Ware, Oregon

After taking Anthony Black and Jett Howard earlier in this mock, the Jazz are back and taking the long-term swing on one of the highest ceiling big men in recent memory. Ware combines supreme confidence as a shooter with many of the other musings of modern big men: rim protection upside, interior finishing, and even some ball handling.

Ware’s season at Oregon hasn’t been too impressive, playing only 20 minutes a night as a backup to other more polished big men. But there’s so much to work with here that dropping Ware to the second round doesn’t feel quite right. The Jazz, who value floor spacing under Will Hardy and could use a backup to Walker Kessler long-term, could be intrigued enough with Ware to make the gamble.

28. Memphis Grizzlies - Baba Miller, Florida State

Finally free after unjust suspension by the NCAA, Miller’s start to the season with the Seminoles has been mighty slow. He’s searching for where his role is within their offense and plays a minimal role for them off the bench. Baba could very well need to return to school for another year and not be in this draft class as a result.

If he does declare, he’s almost certainly worth a first-round pick. Few guys have the natural talent he does to handle at 6’11”, shoot a clean jumper, defend multiple spots, and thrive in transition. The Grizzlies, with their developmental record of late, would be an ideal landing spot for him and gives the organization their first superstar-upside gamble in the last few years. With how stocked they are with good, young players, this feels like the right time to swing for the fences.

29. Charlotte Hornets - Marcus Sasser, Houston

After getting Amen Thompson earlier in this mock, the Hornets could use some additional point-of-attack defense and spot-up shooting while also bombing away from deep. Sasser checks those boxes and has an accomplished career as a winner at Houston. He could be the type of culture driver that the Hornets need in a sixth man role.

Sasser has always impressed us with his confidence off the bounce and how incredibly nimble he is at getting through screens. On a Hornets team with a ton of young bigs, a chaos agent on the perimeter could be welcomed for them to help stabilize the defense of a floundering group.

30. Indiana Pacers - Julian Strawther, Gonzaga

The exact opposite of a high-risk, high-reward gamble, Strawther is a pretty safe prospect to take. He’s been a consistent 40% 3-point shooter his whole career, is proven due to being a four-year guy with the Zags, and has good positional size and rebounding at 6’8”. The Pacers get a ton of mileage out of spacing the floor around Haliburton and playing simple basketball. Strawther could come in and know his role right away. Plus, the organization has had good luck with Gonzaga products picked in the 30s of late…