22 Bold Predictions for the 2022 Draft Class

Best shooter in the class? A lottery pick not to get a second contract? We discuss some spicy takes that go against consensus

Everybody loves some bold predictions.

We aren’t typically in the hot take business, but when we do this much work on the draft process, we find some guys we get pretty attached to and some opinions develop. If we had to be bold, and we had to quantify them (twist our arm, why don’t ya), then these are some of the opinions we’d jump to.

1. Jaden Hardy is a top-3 scorer from this draft class

At this point, everyone knows we’re a big fan of Hardy. We fully buy into his scoring translating to the NBA and believe he’s wildly underrated at this point in time. He’ll deliver top-ten value, and be one of the three top scorers in this class when all is said and done.

2. Hardy shoots better from 3-point range over his first three seasons than AJ Griffin

Take it to the bank. Hardy is an elite spot-up shooter and his pull-up range will rebound. Meanwhile, Griffin is going to dip and not stay at the 44% level he was at as a freshman.

3. Five international prospects get drafted

Let’s clarify this: we’re referring to guys who played internationally last season.

Ousmane Dieng, Nikola Jovic and Ismael Kamagate are three guys we’re very confident in that go in the top 45. The other two? Remains to be seen. Gabriele Procida, Karlo Matkovic, Yannick Nzosa, Ziga Samar, and plenty of others will all make their case. We simply see teams preferring the draft-and-stash option right now, as this isn’t a fully robust free agent group that creates the roster turnover for second-rounders to pounce on.

4. In five years, Jalen Duren leads the NBA in dunks

Elite lob threat. Good enough on defense to stay on the floor for long periods of time. Tremendous upside in transition. We feel good about this one…

5. Collin Gillespie has at least a five-year NBA career

Don’t bet against Villanova guys. It doesn’t matter where or if Gillespie is drafted. He’s a competitor, he shoots it so he’s scalable next to any type of star, and he does all of the little things to help a winner. He’ll stick around in this league.

6. One of the following gets drafted in the first round: Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabate, JD Davison, Patrick Baldwin Jr, John Butler, Peyton Watson

It’s hard to predict exactly who will get the nod here, but one of these guys is going to surprise us all and shoot up into the first round. One franchise will see enough upside here and convince themselves that a four-year commitment to give patience for development is the right path.

7. One of the following goes undrafted: Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabate, JD Davison, Patrick Baldwin Jr., John Butler, Peyton Watson

On the same token, one of those guys (at least) will fall all the way down in the draft, go undrafted, sign with some team for Summer League, and then fire their agent.

8. Trevion Williams plays more career minutes than Christian Koloko or Walker Kessler

Our sleeper guy… let Williams eat! The best shooter of the group, the one with a defined offensive skill, we’re just all in on Trevion. And equally out on Koloko and Kessler, two bigs who don’t really excite us based on their playstyle.

9. Ochai Agbaji never plays more than 24 minutes a game

Bad things happen when he puts the ball on the floor. Those guys aren’t ones we typically trust, even if he can be an exceptional shooter. Crunch time moments mean we would likely not have him on the floor.

10. EJ Liddell shoots under 32% from 3 for his career

Just not buying the jumper for him. Prior to this season, Liddell shot 30.2% from deep in college. He made more this year (37.4%) but missed the boat in terms of overhauling his mechanics in a meaningful way. We just… we struggle to buy into the mechanics as they are currently.

11. Tari Eason plays fewer than 20 games as a rookie and spends most of the year in the G-League

For all the tantalizing flashes Eason showed on either end, he’s still very raw offensively. We can see him spending most of his year in the G-League as he continues to work on his shooting consistency, left hand, playmaking feel and NBA-ready help rotations.

12. Dereon Seabron has a longer NBA career than Wendell Moore

Just buying into his ability to get into the lane, and a little bit worried by Moore’s lack of a blazing first step. We think the narrative on these two guys has been backwards all year in terms of playmaking wings.

13. TyTy Washington averages 8 assists per game at least once in his career

Washington is a prospect without many, or any, notable flaws. He needs to extend his pull-up range beyond the line, but with the impact he has in the mid-range, that isn’t hard to imagine.

That level of impact should allow a long leash to play heavy minutes. When he gets those minutes, he can let his overall passing acumen take over. We’d expect that Washington has at least one season where he is in the top-five in the NBA in assists, and does so while being an efficient scorer.

14. Dalen Terry plays a 10-year career and never averages 10 points per game

What an awesome role player he is. The ultimate defender and passer, he seems quite content playing that role on a really good team. Terry’s energy and demeanor should net him a second contract, and his defense and passing will earn him playing time.

15. One of Blake Wesley or Bryce McGowens averages 20 points per game in a season

We aren’t sure which will be the guy who hits, one of the reasons we’re a tad more skiddish on both. But we’d be willing to bet on at least one of them turning into a legitimate scoring option at the next level. McGowens is a big, attacking guard who thrives at the free throw line and has some creativity and shift. Wesley has every tool you could look for, he’s just a tad rare — and with that comes risk.

Outside of the top-ten prospects, these two are some of the only guys with elite scoring potential in this class. I’d bet on one of them hitting.

16. Christian Braun plays meaningful playoff minutes as a rookie

Part of this has to do with where he’s drafted. Going in the 20s means a higher likelihood of being drafted by a playoff team.

The thing with Braun is that he’s appealing based on his competitiveness. That will earn the trust of his coaches and teammates, as will his scalable role playing game. He knocks down shots, competes on D and doesn’t turn it over at a high rate. Love me some Braun!

17. Dom Barlow is the only Overtime Elite player in this class to play in 100 career games

This says as much about Jean Montero as it does Dom Barlow. We’re increasingly buying into Barlow as an upside swing; we saw him in high school and were pretty impressed right away. If the shot ever comes around on a really high level, his size, energy and athleticism should make him a pretty interesting frontcourt role player. It’ll take time for him to add NBA skill, but the rest of the package is enticing enough to give him some reps while he gets there.

18. Josh Minott wins a Slam Dunk Contest

Have you seen this guy jump? This seems like a no brainer… especailly if Jeremy Evans was once in a Slam Dunk Contest.

19. …so does Shaedon Sharpe

Rumored 48-inch vertical leap? He’ll get too much pressure throughout his career to join the contest that he’ll have to.

20. Jabari Smith never scores 20 PPG in the NBA

Welcome to the segment of the predictions where we look at the top-three prospects. This past year, Jabari Smith shot a medicore 52.1% at the rim for the Auburn Tigers in the half-court. The lack of rim frequency and impact when he gets there is one of the reasons Smith isn’t a top pick candidate in our book.

We think he’ll be a really good piece and an excellent shooter, but the volume won’t be enough in terms of easy shots to turn him into a 20 PPG scorer.

21. Three players sign max contract extensions with their drafting team: Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jaden Ivey.

The top-three prospects on our board, and we see them all as max talents.

22. Paolo Banchero makes First-Team All-NBA by 2027

…but only one guy in this class has the potential to be one of the five-best players in the NBA at any point in time. That’s Paolo Banchero, our top prospect in this draft and a guy we can see being the focal point of a really good team.