4 First-Round Hopefuls with One Signature Skill
Betting on these players means buying into the translation of their main strength to the next level... and that is riskier than you might think
As the calendar turns to January, the discussion on first-round draft picks in the 2023 NBA Draft is starting to take shape. We have enough of a sample under our belts from the beginning of the college basketball season to project impact and to take note of individual growth for every player. We see their strengths, we see their flaws, and we start to calculate out whose upside is high enough to become one of the first thirty players drafted in June.
While the conversation is still early and the list of potential candidates is long, there are several players who belong in the conversation simply because they do one thing incredibly well. Athletes can make millions of dollars and carve out long careers by mastering their craft in one specific area, so if a prospect excels in one particular area but doesn’t have the most well-rounded game, they can still find success at the next level.
However, it does mean the player’s upside is tied to that one trait they have being able to carry over onto an NBA floor. If this one aspect of their game can translate, they’ll be fine and pretty solidly deliver first-round value. But there are so many other holes or question marks around the rest of their profile that if it cannot or does not translate, they could be left without a home in the NBA and have solid bust potential.
The evaluation process is different for players cut from this cloth. Instead of trying to figure out what they do well on an NBA court, scouts must be able to discern whether they can and will do it on an NBA floor. For us, these are sometimes risky propositions. While someone may look at a guy with a role player ceiling and dependable collegiate production and think they are a solid bet to translate, that isn’t always the case. We’ve seen countless role players in college never bring that same impact onto an NBA court.
There are a few players we can already identify as ones whose pro careers will hinge on their ability to execute their strengths on a nightly basis.
Jarace Walker, Houston
Main Trait: Defensive Impact
On physique alone, Jarace Walker looks the part of an NBA frontcourt piece. He’s 6’9” and super physical, with strong legs, a chiseled physique and broad shoulders. He’s built to bang down low with guys taller than him and is long/ quick enough to move in space and bother other wings.
Watch the tape on Walker and you’ll find a defensive player with good off-ball instincts, a high motor, and a surprising amount of quickness on his feet. There’s a lot to work with for Walker as a defensive piece, and the consistency of his impact thus far at Houston has him skyrocketing up boards toward lottery recognition.
We still have our questions about Jarace. Some of the recent lottery-drafted defenders, such as Jeremy Sochan, were more switchable 1 thru 5. Walker seems like he’s better 2 thru 5 and could cede a half-step to the quicker guards in the league. He has great length and covers ground on his closeouts, but he lands very square and too close to the shooter’s feet — he could get himself into foul trouble or be prone to some blow-bys on run-through moves.
Those may seem like smaller points to nitpick, but they matter in projecting Walker to the next level and just how impactful his defense is going to be.
Of all the players on the list we’ll discuss today, Walker probably has the most well-rounded upside from a skill perspective. We’ve seen flashes of really good playmaking around the elbows, roll man impact when he’s playing as a small-ball 5, and a start to the season where he’s north of 40% from 3. He may never be a high-volume offensive piece, but it seems like there’s enough offensive skill to stay on the floor.
To us, that offensive impact only goes to raise the ceiling of his NBA impact, not his floor. The offense isn’t good enough to become the reason he’s on the floor — at least as his jump shot is currently constructed. The value Walker brings a team comes entirely on the defensive end. His lateral quickness and overall versatility must translate in order for him to justify being a lottery selection.
Ricky Council IV, Arkansas
Main Trait: Scoring inside 18 feet
A Wichita State transfer, Council has probably been the best scorer on this Arkansas Razorbacks team that features two potential top-ten picks in Nick Smith and Anthony Black. Council plays his ass off and is always in attack mode, trying to slash through defenses to get to the rim.
When he gets there, he finishes at an elite rate: through 13 games, he’s shooting 66.3% at the rim, one of the better rates for a non-big in the country. Council has tremendous touch with both hands, and is a long and explosive driver. He finishes above defenders and around them, and his handle is tight enough to drive into tight spaces and finish at the bucket. He’s a smart cutter to play off-ball and is so explosive in transition. He’s a heat-seeking missile looking for contact while contorting his body around to finish despite the harm.
We’ve also been intrigued by his pull-up jumper. Council has a smooth stroke in the mid-range and gets his shot off without much trouble. His footwork is solid, but when he doesn’t have his feet set, he finds a way with touch and overall skill to get his body aligned and knock down the shot. Because he’s 6’6” and strong, there’s enough cushion between him and his primary defender to raise up into those attempts.
Council is an intriguing prospect because his jump shooting beyond the mid-range is so hit-or-miss. After a blistering start to the season over his first five games, Council has been really cold from deep: 22.7% on 2.8 attempts per game. That’s not going to cut it, especially for a guy who isn’t known as a great defender.
Scoring with the ball in your hands is such a valuable trait in the NBA, though there are only a couple of guys on each team who are good enough to deserve that role. We haven’t seen the well-rounded shot creation from Council to bank on him safely evolving into that player for an NBA franchise. The rest of his game doesn’t seem to translate to being more of an off-ball piece on offense.
That makes projecting Council to the next level somewhat challenging. On one hand, he could add his jump shot range out to 3 more consistently and become a tremendous scorer; at 6’6” with his strength, it’s easy to see that working for him. On the other, he’s not a great passer and may struggle to play off-ball, a tough combination for anyone looking to be a pro.
Tyrese Proctor, Duke
Main Trait: PNR Playmaking
The Blue Devils are frustrating. There’s a great deal of talent in Durham, though the pieces don’t seem to fit together very well. Everyone seems to be making sacrifices in order for the team to function, from big man roll threat Dereck Lively to scoring wing Dariq Whitehead.