5 Boom-or-Bust 2023 Prospects
These five draft candidates could be first round selections, or could fall off 2023 draft radars completely
Predicting the draft a year in advance is, for many, a fool’s errand. So much changes between the end of one season to the next, and NBA teams tend to be adaptable to those changes. Just look at last year’s high school recruiting rankings, where half of the top-15 was drafted outside the top-30 and several appeared to be disappointments their lone year in college.
With that said (and a heavy grain of salt), we’re attempting a lookahead towards next year’s draft at some of the prospects who have a wide range of outcomes. In essence, these are guys who are either first-round slam dunks or guys we think will go back for another year. Their ceiling is incredibly high, but because they are farther from that ceiling than we would like, projecting their next season will be tricky.
We intentionally left all of these prospects off our preseason top-50 since we didn’t or don’t feel comfortable enough with the samples we have seen to push them into that range, while also acknowledging that if they hit, we’ll be shooting them way up our draft boards.
Emoni Bates - ATH, Eastern Michigan
What a strange path it’s been for Emoni Bates. After playing at his own pop-up prep school spearheaded by his father, Bates reclassed to the high school class of 2021 to head to Memphis early, where he and fellow reclass Jalen Duren could show their superstardom together. Bates struggled mightily with the Tigers, barely playing consistent minutes and watching an older team plow their way to the NCAA Tournament while he sat on the bench.
Bates entered the transfer portal, and the line of programs waiting for his services was not befitting of a former top-three high school recruit. Bates ended up choosing Eastern Michigan for his next home, a mid-major school in the MAC that is somewhat outside the traditional scouting loop for NBA circles but is Bates’ hometown. The narrative of a redemption arc bringing a former high school star back home to prove his worth to himself and others is the stuff of Disney films. Will it be the storybook ending for Bates?
Quite frankly, there’s a ton for Bates to improve on. He didn’t shoot the ball well at all with the Tigers (32.9% from 3 and 38.6% from the field) and the game appeared both too fast and too physical for him as a freshman. A back injury sidelined him for half the season, so there are external factors that clearly impacted his play. Still, heading to play for the 10-21 Eastern Michigan group (with a battle-tested head coach in Stan Heath) was an auspicious decision.
At the center of Bates’ talent has always been a level of intrigue into what he is really like. The strange path, constant tinkering of next steps (he’s committed and decommitted to several different places) and lack of consistent production is a lot to overcome. Sprinkle in the mid-major competition and a possible notion that he’s hiding from elite competition (let’s face it, playing in the AAC and MAC doesn’t exactly scream ‘I’m confident in my superstardom against anyone’), and Bates’ decision to transfer back home is a risky one. We’re weighing that risk, and college film from this year at Memphis that quite frankly wasn’t very good, with the very real talent he’s showcased at lower levels, making him the ultimate boom-or-bust prospect.
Siddy Cissoko - ATH, G-League Ignite
6’7”. Chiseled and athletic. A phenomenal passer. Versatile defensively with lockdown traits.
Siddy Cissoko is a really damn good basketball player and one of the highest-touted international prospects eligible for the 2023 NBA Draft. Cissoko had a great year with Iraurgi SB in the Spanish LEB Gold Division, averaging 10.8 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists. His passing and playmaking popped in particular, as he straddles the line between a big playmaking guard and a high-IQ slashing wing.
Making the decision to come to the G-League Ignite is one that we’d normally applaud. The program offers the most apples-to-apples comparison for success against NBA-style athleticism out there, is modeled after an NBA team in terms of offensive actions and travel style, and focuses on the pathway of development more than winning, something that cannot be said for other professional routes. The Ignite program doesn’t just prepare guys to be seen by the NBA but to succeed earlier in their careers as a result of going that direction.
Still, there’s something not sitting right about the on-court fit of this group. This year’s core four for the Ignite is Cissoko, Efe Abogidi (a big man who can roll, pop, and protect the rim), Leonard Miller (an extremely raw but talented 6’10” wing who thrived with a long leash), and Scoot Henderson. Henderson is the headliner of the group, a playmaking pick-and-roll guard with great athleticism and transcendent talent. As a projected top-two pick, the Ignite system will likely be catered to Scoot and built around his strengths.
Scoot struggled mightly shooting the ball last year and needs floor spacing around him. More importantly, he struggles to space the floor around others.
Where do Cissoko’s on-ball reps come from then? Last year’s Ignite team made it work to a certain degree with two other handlers in Jaden Hardy and Dyson Daniels operating next to Scoot, though it’s clear that wasn’t the ideal circumstance for anyone.
Cissoko may need to embrace more of that glue mentality that Daniels brought to the table if he’s going to be an immediate first-round pick. Poor shooting numbers (Cissoko only shot 24.8% from 3 last year) could make the pairing of these two great talents a frustrating one, contributing to our hesitation in putting Cissoko as a first-rounder on any preseason boards.
Zion Cruz - CG, DePaul
Part of becoming a one-and-done candidate is getting the reps that showcase your best traits. At DePaul, freshman Zion Cruz is likely to have a longer leash offensively than many other diaper dandies. We’ve seen the ‘talented freshman scorer thrives at struggling program’ archetype before, from Bryce McGowens last year to Josh Christopher in 2021. Cruz chose DePaul over Oregon, Alabama and Auburn, presumably so that the role could be a little more catered to his strengths.
At 6’5” after playing at Donda Academy, Cruz has a really good frame for a freshman, and that should help him handle the physicality of the Big East. His style of play is really loose and more playground-esque: double crossovers into mid-range pull-ups, tons of dribbling and not a great deal of passing, more built on volume than efficiency. With that comes the high-risk, high-reward nature that lands Cruz on this list. He can piece together the efficiency or simply show enough high-caliber scoring tools to be intriguing to NBA teams next June.
The other outcome: the erratic nature of his play doesn’t appear to blend well in a team context, and he doesn’t score it efficiently enough to warrant a similarly long leash in the NBA. Cruz should put up numbers this year; what those numbers translate to in draft circles remains to be seen.
Mark Mitchell - F, Duke
Mitchell is clearly talented. At 6’8” with ideal athleticism, Mitchell was highly coveted as a recruit, choosing Duke over the likes of Kansas and UCLA. Mitchell’s motor is usually running high, and he has great hops for a two-foot leaper. The lefty is just a little bit undersized given his strengths on the offensive end: interior scoring and rebounding.
We’re highly curious to see how Mitchell reacts to a collegiate game where his size isn’t a relative advantage. There’s easily a world where his athleticism, smooth touch as a lefty and overall work ethic carry him to a utility role that is impactful. But there’s also a world where he gets removed from positive impact as a tweener, an energy backup 4-man who doesn’t reliably stretch the floor.
Compounding matters is just how stacked the Duke frontcourt might be. Kyle Filpowski and Dereck Lively are a better tandem at the 4 and 5 in terms of their spacing fits, and early reports of Jon Scheyer wanting to play a 5-out scheme could make it tricky to play Mitchell at the 4. We’re not very bullish on Mitchell as a one-and-done prospect, though it’s clear to see how he’s talented and impactful in some important areas.
Mouhamed Gueye - P, Washington State
Gueye is the only one on this list returning to the same program as last year, so his entry here is an auspicious one. Gueye was certainly too raw to be included in this year’s draft class, and that got put on display at the combine and through some workouts we heard about. There’s still so much to like about his size, movement, rim protection potential and stretch upside.
Big men, regardless of how skilled they are, pretty much have two years of college to prove themselves as a first-round talent. Once that sophomore season is in the rearview mirror, it’s incredibly difficult to become a first-rounder in today’s game. The questions for Gueye aren’t revolving around what he must improve at, but whether he can do so quickly.
A much-improved version of the Cougars’ big man is a top-25 talent and a first-round guy. Bigs simply don’t move the way he does or offer as much scoring skill, and analytic models tend to like a game like his. If he stays the same or doesn’t progress fast enough, it’s hard to imagine him capturing any first-round buzz in the future.