5 One-and-Done Prospects We're Skeptical Of
Before we throw them into first round territory, we need to see some major improvements to their game
The 2022 high school class, along with a few key international prospects like Victor Wembanyama, make the 2023 NBA Draft potentially one of the most loaded in history. That’s quite high praise for a draft class, but one we feel (at least at the very top) is deserved.
Still, there are only 30 first-round draft slots. Over the last five drafts, anywhere between 11 and 15 college freshmen have been selected in the first, with a strong correlation between the highest-regarded draft classes (2018 and 2021) featuring more one-and-done talent.
2022: 12
2021: 15
2020: 12
2019: 11
2018: 14
Those numbers in and of themselves are not too high. Especially when you consider the star power in this year’s draft class from a preseason standpoint. There will certainly be players who are highly touted coming into college that fall off first-round radars for next year.
In 2021, only five one-and-dones were drafted in the second round. That number jumped up to nine in 2022, likely a product of two phenomena: the major raise in sophomores at the top of the draft and the unusually high spike in disappointing freshmen campaigns from once-promising prospects. The second round is not typically a friendly place for freshmen.
Before the season begins, we are skeptical of a few freshmen who have ended up highly touted on one-and-done radars elsewhere. For some, it’s due to opportunity — the college program they’ve chosen may not be the one that properly displays their skills. For others, it’s a major trait to improve, and until we see proof it’s better, we’ll hold them off the first-round radar.
Here are five prospects that need to earn our trust before being designated as one-and-done hopefuls and the areas we hope they focus on.
Jordan Walsh - W, Arkansas
Improvement Area: Shooting
During the 2021 EYBL season, Jordan Walsh played in 12 games for Drive Nation that were logged in Synergy’s system. In those twelve games, Walsh went 0-7 on catch-and-shoot jumpers in the half-court and 3-19 (15.8%) on dribble pull-ups, including 0-5 on pull-up 3s. The mechanics of the jumper don’t pass the eye test. Walsh is a solid slasher and finisher, but the absence of a jumper at his size (about 6’7”) is pretty important.
Normally we bet on talent and believe that, with proper coaching, they can figure things out. This isn’t a shot at the Arkansas staff: we think they’re actually a pretty good crew. But in the short-term, looking at a one-season window for Walsh to be a one-and-done, it’s a combination of the long road ahead for him to be a functional shooter and the various other options that Arkansas has in their rotation in key minutes.
Eric Musselman has brought together an incredibly deep roster, and with the likes of Nick Smith and Anthony Black able to play with the ball in their hands at a high level, surrounding them with shooters becomes vital. There are only so many minutes to go around; the Razorbacks have experience (even at Walsh’s position) and two freshmen who are elite as top creators. The reps simply don’t seem like they will be there for Walsh in an on-ball role.
Walsh is still a really good prospect: an exceptional defender, a decent passer and a good athlete and finisher. We simply aren’t there on him being a one-and-done guy until we see serious strides taken as a shooter.