5 Returning Sophomores with Breakout Potential
Continuity at the same school and a larger role could lead to NBA breakouts for a few intriguing second-year collegiates
We all love looking for and (hopefully) finding the next star prospect. Some bets are better to make than others on who that prospect is going to be. Often, breakout returners are sophomores who have seen a solid amount of burn their freshman year but are ready to adjust to the speed of the game. Many of the highest-caliber breakout players are those who played in high-major conferences as well.
In looking at the crop of sophomores this upcoming season, there is a lot of talent still remaining in college hoops for NBA teams to digest. Several are on my first-round docket to start the cycle (in fact, I have eight sophomores inside my top-30 to date) and would be, in my eyes, the most obvious to become highly-regarded prospects during the 2024 cycle.
But beyond those guys, I have to be prepared for others to break out in 2024 and become fascinating first-round prospects. This breakout potential article focuses on five players who didn’t set the world on fire their freshman seasons and aren’t thought of as the guys we most commonly hear as first-round picks in 2024 — at least in my circles. However, they are players who I really liked as freshmen (or coming into college) and are in advantageous situations for a breakout, or at least have the boom potential to get there if several aspects of their game break right.
Here are five sophomore players who I do not have a first-round grade on coming into the 2024 NBA Draft cycle but could very well see them earning that designation by the end of the season.
It is worth noting that this summer, I will also be conducting a “sophomore breakout” video series looking closely at seven specific sophomores. Each of those seven will receive their own article and breakdown thanks to their NBA potential (I currently have a first-round grade on all seven) and, as a result, they will not be mentioned here. Those seven:
UConn’s Donovan Clingan
Duke’s Kyle Filipowski
Florida’s Riley Kugel
Florida State’s Baba Miller
Duke’s Tyrese Proctor
Oklahoma’s Milos Uzan
Indiana’s Kel’el Ware
Two other rising sophomores, Syracuse’s Judah Mintz and UCLA’s Adem Bona, received full-length scouting reports this year as part of my pre-draft coverage when they initially declared for the 2023 NBA Draft. I have top-40 grades on both. Please click on the hyperlinks of each player to find my thoughts on each.
Mark Mitchell - F, Duke
While the six players mentioned above are those who are most often mentioned as potential lottery picks or breakout sophomores in 2024, Duke forward Mark Mitchell has as good of a shot as anyone at joining the fray. He is a long 6’8” with a chiseled frame, started all 35 games for the Blue Devils as a freshman last year, and just looks like an NBA player.
There’s something both natural and unorthodox about his movement patterns, hidden in his combination of dexterity for his size and struggles in generating clean rim attempts. Where Mitchell struggled as a freshman was actually in his conversion around the rim. He’s a little too in love with the Euro step for my liking, picks up his dribble far from the rim, and plays off two feet at times when one would be more suitable. He’s your quintessential guy who looks the part of a powerful, athletic stud but needs such a clean runway to dunk off one foot that we almost never see it from him.
What I’ve grown to really like about Mitchell is his defensive upside. Statistically, he’s not a dominant guy — 1.7 stocks per 40 minutes is a really low rate and doesn’t clear many barometers to indicate positive impact. I didn’t think he was very good at the start of the season at all, but by mid-January (and with an improved security blanket behind him in Dereck Lively), Mitchell was quite solid.
The interesting part is how Mitchell was deployed. He guarded Reece Beekman at the point-of-attack against Virginia, trailed Hunter Tyson off dozens of screens against Clemson, put clamps on Virginia Tech’s Sean Pedulla, and had great outings in space late in the season. There’s a real energy and frantic nature to his defense which is what contributes to Mitchell looking like an NBA player. He moves like one on the defensive end, which is terrifying considering his size and length. The tools and the intrigue are all on the defensive end for me.
He also shot 35% from 3 in his first year at Duke, and there’s some latent self-creation upside there — not enough to forecast that as a future role, but enough to indicate his skill level has been severely underrated by the national narrative. I’m not in love with the shooting form, and his dribble jumpers are seemingly fool’s gold. But if the shot goes in and he can keep getting wide-open spot-up attempts, there’s a future there.
Mitchell will be a fascinating player to watch, and frankly, I haven’t wrapped my head around all the players the Blue Devils have for next season yet and how all the talent fits together. A returning frontcourt starter who can play the 3 or the 4 is vital for the Blue Devils, but long-term, Mitchell’s best role is that of a defending, slashing 4-man. There’s some work that needs to be done to get there — and I’m not sold on him as a first-round prospect as of yet. But the tools are somewhat intriguing.
Ryan Dunn - ATH, Virginia
If long, cagey, athletic wings are what you’re interested in, then stay in the ACC! A few hours north of Cameron Indoor, the Virginia Cavaliers are poised to see second-year athlete Ryan Dunn take a major step forward. Dunn is similarly that guy who just moves like an NBA-caliber athlete, and while he’s a little thinner than Mitchell, his lateral quickness and fluidity on offense look more sustainable long-term.