5 Upperclass Returners with NBA Upside: The Bigs
As they head back to the same digs as last year, these old heads are banking on continuity landing them on NBA radars
In trying to get a head start on the 2024 NBA Draft, the easiest place to start is always with the returners and the upperclassmen. From watching them play for several years, I am most familiar with their games and comfortable with their projections.
NIL has certainly changed college basketball and given an additional appeal to upperclassmen to stay in school a little longer. They can make money here — sometimes more money than the uncertain pathway that a two-way contract or the G-League route can guarantee. With that being the case, the lot of upperclassmen who have NBA-caliber games still floating around is increasing, meaning staring down rising freshmen year after year is an ineffective way to scout.
After diving into my favorite upperclassmen transfers last week, this week I’m taking a deep look at the juniors and seniors in college hoops who are returning to the same program they were with a season ago. For the transfers, the hopes of greater exposure by moving up a level, heading to a new system that will help their game pop, or playing against better competition on a nightly basis are what bring draft-based optimism in 2024. For these players we’re breaking down this week, it’s either about continuity being able to help their growth, additional reps coming their way within a familiar situation, or simply having more time on their side to win over NBA scouts and fix one small piece of their game.
We’ll kick off this week’s lot of returners with the big men. College basketball, moreso than the NBA, is built around big men and is certainly much more welcoming to post-up play. Evaluating bigs in college is different than just looking for those who produce numbers: we must look at the translatability of their game into pick-and-roll coverages on defense, versatile schemes on offense, and their impact in ways that don’t revolve around playing with their back to the basket. As such, this breakdown doesn’t highlight some of the bigger names in college basketball, but the upperclassmen bigs who I believe have a more translatable game and, therefore, could play their way into truly draftable territory next year.
It’s worth noting that there are a few upperclassmen who will be receiving their own video breakdown and scouting report ahead of the start of the college basketball season. As such, they will not be mentioned or broken down here. Those players:
Trey Alexander, Creighton
Trevon Brazile, Arkansas
Oso Ighodaro, Marquette
Dillon Jones, Weber State
DaRon Holmes, Dayton
For the past two years, Dayton big man DaRon Holmes has captured my attention as a potential NBA player. He’s a big 6’11” 5-man with real mobility, impactful two-way play, and burgeoning flashes of skill. ‘Flashes’ is the appropriate word to describe Holmes; he’s much more a prospect based on moments of really intriguing stuff, not long stretches of sustained dominance or versatility.
On offense, Holmes utilizes his quick-leaping athleticism to score the majority of his points near the rim and off dunks. He spends a ton of time either in the dunker spot, scoring out of clearout post-ups, or facilitating with handoffs into ball screens atop the key. While Holmes is adequate as a post-up scorer in college, it’s the catch-and-finish stuff that is most intriguing.
Holmes has more in his bag than just scoring near the rim, though. He’s made some high-IQ plays when he puts the ball on the floor with one or two bounces. He’s shown real upside in the short roll as a playmaker. He’s even drilled a few jump shots (albeit inconsistently), hitting six 3-pointers a season ago. Holmes is the only player in the Barttorvik database to have a BLK% over 6, an AST % over 12, 75+ dunks, and 5+ 3-point makes.
While his offense is tantalizingly well-rounded, it’s his defensive impact overall that makes me really excited for his future. Holmes has one of my favorite micro skills amongst all returners, with his active hands and propensity for steals/ deflections while playing at the level of the ball. It’s a trait I value a lot more moving forward, considering the NBA is (slowly but surely) starting to shift more toward mobile, perimeter-based pick-and-roll defense and away from pure Drop coverage.
Holmes has the upside to impact the game in any coverage or scheme, which is the right type of bet I like to take in the second round. Combine that with his offensive skill and DaRon could be a real sleeper in 2024 to end up in the late first-round discussion. Had he stayed in the 2023 class, Holmes would’ve garnered a top-40 grade from me on the flashes of upside he’s shown. I’m optimistic a major breakout could be coming this year.
Coleman Hawkins, Illinois
As the NBA continues to see the intersection between size and skill grow, having defensive-stoppers who can match that length while moving quickly in space is going to become a necessity.
Enter Coleman Hawkins, one of the premiere frontcourt defenders in college basketball last season. Hawkins wasn’t a ball-hawking rim protector at the 5 or a highlight-inducing steals maven leading to transition breakaways. But he averaged 1.1 steals and 1.2 blocks, played incredibly reliable defense in isolation against some of the best wing scorers the Illini faced, and slid between the 4 and 5 on defense with ease.
Hawkins’ movement patterns on defense have always stood out. When he’s engaged, he has all the traits to bother the biggest and best jumbo wings in 1v1 situations — or bother them as well as any human being can. He’s long, active, quick laterally, solid with his instincts, and not afraid to take contact to his core. He shows impressive help defensive moments at the rim, making up for some of the shortcomings of their 5-man Dain Dainja.