5 Upperclass Returners with NBA Upside: The Guards
As they head back to the same digs as last year, these old heads are banking on continuity landing them on NBA radars
In trying to get a head start on the 2024 NBA Draft, the easiest place to start is always with the returners and the upperclassmen. From watching them play for several years, I am most familiar with their games and comfortable with their projections.
NIL has certainly changed college basketball and given an additional appeal to upperclassmen to stay in school a little longer. They can make money here — sometimes more money than the uncertain pathway that a two-way contract or the G-League route can guarantee. With that being the case, the lot of upperclassmen who have NBA-caliber games still floating around is increasing, meaning staring down rising freshmen year after year is an ineffective way to scout.
After diving into my favorite upperclassmen transfers last week, this week I’m taking a deep look at the juniors and seniors in college hoops who are returning to the same program they were with a season ago. For the transfers, the hopes of greater exposure by moving up a level, heading to a new system that will help their game pop, or playing against better competition on a nightly basis are what bring draft-based optimism in 2024. For these players we’re breaking down this week, it’s either about continuity being able to help their growth, additional reps coming their way within a familiar situation, or simply having more time on their side to win over NBA scouts and fix one small piece of their game.
Today’s article focuses on the guards, the group of players who are most likely to operate with the ball in their hands at the collegiate level and create for themselves and for others. While there are some elite shooters mixed in here, this crop of guards (the five that we’re focusing on today, at least) have the potential to see their games translate to the NBA level for various reasons. For some, it’s combining their scoring abilities with hard-nosed defense. For others, it’s great positional size and well-rounded games.
Either way, it’s worth getting to know these guards who are somewhat flying under the radar in draft circles but have a lot of potential to become draft selections in 2024.
It’s worth noting that there are a few upperclassmen who will be receiving their own video breakdown and scouting report ahead of the start of the college basketball season. As such, they will not be mentioned or broken down here. Those players:
Trey Alexander, Creighton
Trevon Brazile, Arkansas
Oso Ighodaro, Marquette
Dillon Jones, Weber State
Johnell Davis, Florida Atlantic
Rewind the clocks just a smidge for a moment. It’s January 5th, and I’m at home looking for a game to watch on my ESPN app. UAB and Florida Atlantic strikes me as one to tune into, as the Blazers have a great backcourt tandem with Jelly Walker and Eric Gaines.
While I’m jotting down notes and watching the flow of the game, a guard for Florida Atlantic pours in a fantastic performance and starts to really capture my interest. That player: Johnell Davis, who posted a career-high 36 points (11-17 FG, 10-11 FT, only 1 TO).
I’d seen Davis before. He went to 21st Century Charter in Gary, Indiana and led them to three straight sectional titles — and would’ve been a fourth if the game hadn’t been canceled due to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. His first, his freshman season, came at the same time I was still coaching high school basketball in Indiana. The freshman Davis led 21st Century to a semi-state run, then his sophomore and junior seasons lost at the hands of a dominant Fort Wayne Blackhawk Christian team led by current Purdue big man Caleb Furst.
Seeing Davis again on the big stage at Florida Atlantic reminded me of his skill and overall toughness. He played AAU with Jaden Ivey, Nijel Pack, the aforementioned Furst, and the Indy Heat program. Davis was more of a role player, but those who watched him in Northwest Indiana knew his scoring prowess was legitimate. Davis bought into the glue guy role on those teams; he held a few offers from MAC schools and from Florida Atlantic, but his high-major talent as a scorer remained largely unearthed.
Fast forward from January 2023 just three months and Davis is one of the heroes of college basketball. FAU made a dream run to the Final Four, and Davis (averaging 15-7-3 through the tourney) was their most appealing NBA prospect. It’s been a great story, but his ascent is not shocking to those who have known of him for a while.
Davis was one of the best players at the G-League Combine this May, which is a nice indicator that his game translates well to the next level. Davis moves like an NBA player (something I’m trying to put more stock in this upcoming cycle and hoping to define more clearly), and his ability to just make gritty, winning plays while surrounded by other talented guys should allow him to scale up nicely. He can be a scoring guard whose job is to put the ball in the bucket, but he does more of those little things than most scoring guards will.
I’m not worried about the inconsistency of his raw numbers on a nightly basis this year at FAU, especially considering the multiple-guard approach the Owls ran with. From my vantage point, Davis received most of the attention from other teams, especially once he entered the starting lineup. Once he permanently moved into the lineup in late February, the Owls went 11-1, and Davis averaged 14.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.9 steals on 51.3% shooting.
Davis needs to show more improvement, greater efficiency, and the real test of his leadership will come with whether the Owls can stay as a top team in the country this year. I’m a big fan of his and believe he’s got both the game and the intangibles to become a valuable NBA rotation player.