5 NBA Players With "Do or Die" Seasons Looming
A failure to take a productive step forward could cost these five another contract
“And then one day you find ten years have got behind you
No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun” — Pink Floyd
Replace ten years with two in Pink Floyd’s poignant lyrics and you find the time crunch that most NBA players face. In an increasingly “what can you do for me today” world, patience with skill and player development has gone by the wayside. Organizations will contradictorily draft players they know are projects and, as soon as they arrive, become impatient with their need to improve.
Four years goes by very quickly on a rookie deal. At the end of a player’s third season, key deadline dates begin to occur, with triggers on extensions, renouncing of final years of deals or long-term plans for how to carve out the space needed to re-sign that player set. Fourth-year boons happen on occasion, but more times than not the franchise has a clear picture at the end of year three on what the player will bring to the table (at least within their system).
That can make those third and fourth years in the league ultimate pressure-cookers. I was reminded of that this week in an exchange with fellow Twitter scout Mike Gribanov:
Some players have more on the line than others. There are five former first-round picks, either in their third or fourth pro seasons, who have a lot of proving to do in order to make their way to a second contract. Time is ticking away on their opportunities, making this a crucial season for their long-term career.
1. Grant Williams - F, Boston Celtics
While a longer-form piece on Williams exclusively is on its way for CelticsBlog, the jist is this: two years in the league, the Tennessee product doesn’t have a signature skill to hang his hat on. The days of the toolsy, jack of all trades wings are slowly fading away. Some, like Kyle Anderson or Andre Iguodala, survive offensively on their first step and ability to create separation from their defender. Grant doesn’t have such an ability.
Increasingly, Williams has found where his offensive value will come from: corner 3-point shooting. He made over 44% of his corner treys last season, which amounted for 22% of his overall field goal attempts. It’s a shot more engrained in his arsenal because he doesn’t have a definitive skill elsewhere, like a kid told to “go to the corner” and stay out of the way.
It isn’t that Williams isn’t skilled at all. He’s a really good passer with a brilliant basketball IQ. He can pinch hit at any position and in any spot, and his utility in those areas makes him worthy of a roster spot. He simply won’t carve out a regular rotation spot larger than he’s been given his first two years in the league until he finds that one factor he’s great at. A strong-bodied defender, Boston rebuilt their roster at the 5 in a way that prevents Grant from playing there in more than emergency situations. Playing the 4 exposes his foot speed issues on both ends. It’s an issue Williams either must solve to stick around in Boston or become elite in another area to compensate.
2. Goga Bitadze - P, Indiana Pacers
Coming out in 2019, I was really high on Goga Bitadze. His big frame and potential to shoot from the perimeter were appealing. He was tremendously skilled, showed passing chops and had a nice modern blend to his game offensively.
After year two, the numbers aren’t trending in his favor. Last year, Bitadze was really below average in many offensive categories: 19-65 (29.2%) on catch-and-shoot looks and, when you subtract putbacks from the offensive glass, only shot 38.9% (51-131) in the half-court. For a near seven-footer, that’s a dreadful mark.
Goga remains intriguing in two massive areas. First, his rim protection and shot blocking skills have been ultra solid. 3.9 blocks per 36 minutes is a high rate for a young man. Second, the constant rumors around Indiana looking to deal Myles Turner bring hope that minutes will some day become consistent for Goga. Right now, his role is a bit as a third cog in the wheel due to no fault of his own.
Regardless, his contract will come due before we know it. Thus far, he’s a stretch big who launches from deep but doesn’t make them, who picks-and-pops but doesn’t make contact on his screens and blocks shots on the interior. Intriguing in theory, just running out of time for the theoretical to be what justifies a roster spot. A second season with poor finishing and shooting stats would negate that intrigue altogether.
3. Nassir Little - ATH, Portland Trail Blazers
Even two years into his career, I don’t think Nassir Little even knows who he is. A massive leap in 3-point shooting (from 23.7% as a rookie to 35% last year on similar volume) has bought the former Tar Heel some time to sort through his game. For the most part, I had trust in Portland’s skill development team under Terry Stotts. With a new coaching staff in town, it’s hard to envision a linear development for such an ambiguous bundle of athleticism.
Last year, Little was used as a little bit of everything. According to his basketball-reference page, Little logged 1% of his minutes at center and 2% at shooting guard — he was literally all over the floor. The highlight of the year: a 30-point outing against the Milwaukee Bucks on February 1st where he went 11-18 from the field and 5-7 from deep. He looked like he belongs in this league long-term.
A player with his raw level of athleticism, especially when standing a mere 6’5”, is in the continuity of his development. When a new regime takes over, they tend to change up the way they envision a player, prioritize different skill sets or areas on the floor, etc. There’s a reason the old coach was relieved of his duties: things have to change.
The danger in a new chef in the kitchen means potentially undoing a lot of the strides that Little has made. Tinkering with his jumper, changing his usage in the half-court (surprisingly, Little was only used as a roll man on three possessions), tweaking his allowances to crash the glass. What I fear more than anything for Nassir is that he’ll be the casualty of following instructions and doing what he’s asked. While Billups will have a few years from management, the pressure is on in Portland to win now and play guys who can convince Damian Lillard to stay. Unfortunately, an expanded role for Little doesn’t seem to jive with that modus operandi. Instead, he’ll have to thrive on being efficient in small roles and being ready to go when others miss time.
4. Jarrett Culver - CG, Memphis Grizzlies
We all expected Culver’s name to wind up on this list, no? Given up on by the Minnesota Timberwolves after two years, Culver finds himself in Memphis with an organization that heavily valued him during the pre-draft process. To close the chapter on Culver’s time in Minnesota, let’s just say their decision to trade Dario Saric and Cameron Johnson for the opportunity to select Culver hasn’t gone down as a great one…
Culver is due $6.4 million this year and has a team option for $8.1 million that the Grizzlies must pick up before October ends. It seems probable that the Grizzlies decline that option, making Jarrett a restricted free agent during the summer of 2022. The story doesn’t end there, though. Jarrett could strongly rehabilitate his value if he can gain traction in the rotation. And with $6.4 million guaranteed this year, he is unlikely to be one of the preseason roster cuts they make.
So what do we need to see from Culver in order to bring meaningful change? A whole lot, to be honest. His shot is broken right now, making only 24.5% from deep and rarely shooting it. He’s only made 50% of his free throws, has been a bit disappointing on the defensive end despite his collegiate body of work and turned it over more than he assisted last year — a horrible sign for a guy once thought of as a potential secondary creator. It’s hard to find a silver lining for Culver.
Within the Grizzlies 5-Out offense, there are ample opportunities for Culver to attack the basket, distribute in space and have room for 3-point looks. Their development system has done wonders for guys in the past. Now they need to work quickly to get something out of Culver, as by the end of this year we’ll have very little patience left based on his contract and expectations heading into the league.
5. Carsen Edwards - CG, Memphis Grizzlies
Culver isn’t the only Grizz on this list — and not the only one at his position! Fighting for minutes in the hybrid point guard/ off-ball role is Carsen Edwards, acquired from the Boston Celtics this summer. Coming out of Purdue, Edwards was beloved for his toughness, physical stature (he’s short but well-built) and ability to get molten hot from downtown.
Edwards’ rise to first-round selection was fueled by a great March Madness run, one that always seemed curious to me. Regardless, he found himself in Boston and has since struggled to recapture the shooting consistency that stood out in West Lafayette. Edwards, like many other shooters, are great based on momentum, knowing they have a long leash to play through their misses and the conditioning to eventually tire out their opponent.
In Boston, Edwards’ role was drastically different. He was the bench scorer who would come in as-needed for an offensive spark, and it seemed impossible for Carsen to heat up in time. He shot 31.6% as a rookie and 28% this year, far too low for a shooting specialist. Listed at 5’11”, there isn’t much that Edwards gives outside his shot. He’s a boom-or-bust player who hasn’t boomed yet.
The clock might be ticking on Edwards sooner than we know. Memphis enters camp with an overcrowded roster of guaranteed contracts: someone is going to get waived or traded (and then potentially waived by a new team). Edwards is a prime candidate for that, making training camp a time of great importance for the Boilermaker.