5x5 NBA Season Preview: Atlantic Division
Five teams, five questions. The Atlantic Division is stacked, but has plenty of drama and intrigue
The NBA season is quickly enclosing us. After two strange and unprecedented seasons, this summer provided anything but relaxation. No, star players like Damian Lillard and Ben Simmons became engulfed in trade rumors, several teams shook up their coaching staffs, player movement was furious in free agency and the Eastern Conference took several steps forward towards being better than the last several years.
Now, it’s time to look backward at what has happened to inform what might happen moving forward. We’ll tackle each team through the lens of the five most important questions they face this year. Some questions are about timeline and process, while others ponder the fit of the roster. At the very least, this serves as a great launching pad into the 2021-22 NBA season.
Last but not least on our NBA season preview tour is the Atlantic Division, featuring the league’s biggest markets, the favorite for the NBA title, an All-Star demanding a trade and basketball’s return to Canada. What more could you ask for?
Toronto Raptors
Head coach: Nick Nurse, 4th year (138-88 record)
2020-21 Record: 27-45
Vegas Line: 35.5 wins
Our Projection: 35-47, 11th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 24th
Def. Rating: 10th
Is it just us, or are the Toronto Raptors a tough team to get a feel for? On one hand, the really poor 27-45 performance from a year ago, combined with the defection of Kyle Lowry to Miami, makes it really difficult to bank on the Raptors as a team to make a postseason push. Their roster got a lot younger and lacks multiple perimeter creators who can get their own shot. Pascal Siakam will miss the start of the year, perhaps building a hole that the Raptors can’t — and don’t want to — climb out of.
On the flip side of that coin, the experience of playing in Tampa makes it really difficult to look at last year as proof this is a team taking a step back. Rookie Scottie Barnes is as fun and impactful as any big wing we’ve seen come into the league. Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa help offset Lowry’s departure, and there’s still plenty of talent here with Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raptors make a push for the playoffs, nor would we if they won fewer than 30 games.
Is it justifiable to throw out last season’s performance playing away from their homes down in Tampa?
The first step in figuring out where the Raptors are at is in evaluating last season’s results accurately. Around the All-Star Break, Masai Ujiri and company seemed to understand that constructing a playoff winner down in Tampa wasn’t going to happen. The crowd there wouldn’t support them, and the financial incentives for a playoff berth weren’t as high as normal due to the lack of a live gate. Locals were invested in the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the lack of overwhelming success made it hard to drum up interest.
After the All-Star Break, the Raptors went 10-26 after a solid 17-19 start. Their offensive production fell more than three points per game, and they wrapped the regular season going 1-8 to increase their draft position and avoid the play-in.
Such a savvy long-term move helped get the Raptors Scottie Barnes. A common mistake that is made is to evaluate the roster’s upside for this year based solely off the numbers from last year in it’s entirety, not on how the team looked when actively trying. We think the circumstances in Tampa and the Lowry departure almost balance each other out. This should be a team that is around, or just under, .500 for most of the season.
Is the preseason version of Scottie Barnes a building block for immediate regular season success?
Holy moly is this Barnes kid fun! We were super high on Barnes during the pre-draft process, lumping him into the category with Evan Mobley and Jalen Suggs. There was no surprise to see him go fourth overall.
What is surprising is how quickly Barnes has improved the fluidity of his jump shot and stepped into a focal point role of their preseason offense. Barnes is the team’s best passer, plays with the ball in his hands in the half-court and is effective because he finally has a smooth jumper to pair with his attacking and playmaking.
We get it, the preseason and regular season are different animals. Expecting a rookie to do the same things once the 82-game calendar officially begins is often foolish. Something feels different with Barnes, both in terms of his talent level and his energy. His game is infectious, and the Raps would be wise to prioritize his reps as an alpha right out of the gate. He’s already earned that distinction.
Can the Raps play Siakam at the 5?
For the last few years, we’ve called for Toronto to explore the possibility of letting Pascal get some run as the team’s center on closing lineups. According to his basketball-reference page, Siakam spent 18% of his minutes there last season, a career high. Much of that was influenced by the team’s relative weakness at the position, with an underwhelming Aron Baynes, slim Chris Boucher and very little continuity.
Toronto added Precious Achiuwa via trade, and Precious has looked very good during the preseason… at least good enough to carve out a rotation spot. Achiuwa and Boucher should be solid backup centers, and perhaps one of them dives into the starting lineup. But we can’t help but think the pathway forward for the Raps is to close (and possibly start) games with Siakam, Barnes and OG Anunoby at the 3 thru 5. The combination of length, rebounding, playmaking and defensive prowess should make that a dangerous frontcourt to deal with.
Does Goran Dragic finish the season with Toronto?
In a limited 20-26 minutes a night, Goran Dragic can still go. It was only twelve months ago where he was driving the train for the Miami Heat, helping them advance to the NBA Finals, averaging 19.1 points and 4.4 assists in the 2020 Playoffs. He’s got juice left in the tank when he can come off to his left hand, run the pick-and-roll and be counted on to score.
Dragic’s tenure with the Raptors will likely depend on their organizational priority that develops by mid-season. If they’re making a playoff push, don’t be surprised to see him gut it out in Toronto, featured in a starting role that allows him to put up those numbers and look for playoff success. If the Raptors opt to shut it down and prioritize the draft, trading Dragic off his expiring deal worth $19.4 million is the best course for Ujiri to take.
Should the Raptors value another high draft pick more than a Play-In Tournament berth?
Teams like Toronto easily can find themselves in a crossroads. Perhaps Barnes, Siakam, Anunoby and VanVleet are a good enough foursome to propel the Raptors firmly back into the title picture. Much of that depends on Siakam’s health and how quickly Barnes can become the superstar Ujiri envisions. But the window for success isn’t finite; Barnes is a rookie, and the other key pieces are either signed long-term or not quite in danger of being on the downside of their career arcs.
As such, what’s the downside in adding another lottery pick? The 2022 draft class isn’t chocked full of talent, but there’s enough of it in the 6-10 range to feel like getting inside the top-ten is a far better conclusion than landing in the 11-14 range. Guys like TyTy Washington and Ousmane Dieng make a ton of sense for the Raps as another scorer in the backcourt, and if they find themselves once again jumping into the top-five, a number of big men could become their anchor at the 5. We see the potential for long-term success to be more easily attained by waiting to slam on the gas pedal until next year.
New York Knicks
Head coach: Tom Thibodeau, 2nd year (41-31 record)
2020-21 Record: 41-31
Vegas Line: 41.5 wins
Our Projection: 42-40, 9th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 23rd
Def. Rating: 11th
For the first time in a long time, Knicks fans are justifiably excited. Not because there’s a new star in town or a flashy headline on the marquee. No, continuity and coaching are the driving forces behind New York’s resurgence. Tom Thibodeau has added his dash of defensive success to a Knicks roster with intriguing, young offensive talent. Julius Randle moved into an All-Star alpha role seamlessly, shooting the ball well while being the straw that stirs the drink.
Other role players give plenty of reason for optimism. RJ Barrett is heading into his third season and shows very positive signs of being a 20 point per game scorer. Immanuel Quickley was great as a rookie, and veteran lead guards Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker provide different scoring dynamics. New signee Evan Fournier provides floor spacing, and the big man platoon of Nerlens Noel, Mitchell Robinson and second-year pro Obi Toppin will produce several different looks. The Knicks swung their way into the four-seed last year, a goal difficult to replicate as the East appears much deeper.
How does the center rotation shake out?
To us, Obi Toppin is a center. Defensively that’s his best position, regardless of the small steps he’s taken to become quicker when guarding the perimeter. If he’s played at the 5, the Knicks have three (if not more) quality options to juggle. Nerlens Noel is a really strong defender who combines switchability with rim protection. Mitchell Robinson, more of a defined lob threat off the roll, has long been seen as a favorite of Knicks fans, despite our pleas to consider him a high-end backup at most. Even rookie Jericho Sims has enough chops to prove he’s worth of backup minutes in small doses.
To us, Noel should be the starter. Robinson comes off the bench, and Toppin gets his minutes split between the 4 and 5. Noel should play about 24 a night, Robinson about 20, and Toppin getting about ten minutes total, half at the 5. We’ll see if the Knicks follow suit, or if they decide to go small now that there’s a good deal of backcourt depth and put Randle at the 5.
How does Kemba Walker look?
One of the more underrated acquisitions of the offseason, Kemba is still a guy who can go out and get 20 on any given night. He is a strong PNR creator, shoots it well enough to play off-ball and fits into any type of offensive attack. Within the Thibodeau schemes, worries about his defense aren’t too cumbersome. This could be a major resurgence for Walker.
Much of that will have to do with his knee, as the past two years have been a struggle to stay healthy. Walker didn’t play in back-to-backs last year in Boston, and his production soared when he had two or more days rest. The Knicks have depth in their backcourt, so rushing Walker through the regular season shouldn’t be on their agenda. Of course, the heavy-minutes often logged under Tom Thibodeau by many stars makes me worry a bit that Kemba will burn out a wheel before the playoffs begin.
Is this the year RJ Barrett makes a big leap?
Playoff RJ wasn’t very good, to be blunt. 14.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists are fine numbers, but he was exposed a bit defensively and shot 38% from the field and 28% from deep. It’s hard to balance that with the Barrett we got after the All-Star Break, who put together a 35-game sample of 18.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 43.5% shooting from deep.
We know Barrett can shoot, but he’s likely to find equilibrium in-between the 28 and 43 percents he posted. As a playmaker, three assists a game is strong for a second-year pro, but is also the area to most easily take an additional step if he moves himself to the next level. With more shooters around to distribute to (hello, Mr. Fournier), look for Barrett to lead this Knicks team in assists. If he can take another step forward, the Knicks won’t experience much of a drop-off from their 41-31 season.
Do we get a repeat performance from Julius Randle?
Well, that came out of nowhere. 24.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 6.1 assists while shooting 45% from the field, 41% from deep and generating six free throw attempts a night. Randle made his first All-Star appearance and definitely deserved it.
Reinforcements came to the Big Apple in the way of veterans Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. Both should eat away at Randle’s creative volume, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Knicks. It’s conceivable Randle still averages 20 and 10, but the shooting leap (he was 27% from 3 the year before) is still a bit mystifying. Last year, the Knicks went as Randle went. It’s a positive there’s more to this team than just his creation, but the Knicks still need him to play at an All-Star level to force their way through the Eastern Conference and actually put themselves in position to win a playoff series.
Will the Knicks once again be a top-five defense?
To us, top five seems a bit ambitious. The Thibodeau bump in year one has been a real phenomenon everywhere, and while he rarely takes a major step back in subsequent seasons, this roster isn’t exactly brimming with elite defensive personnel. Robinson and Noel are the perfect anchors who have a low volume on offense and bounce around on defense. Randle fits into Thibs’ desire to have more physicality than mobility at the 4. Fournier and Barrett have length, and the multitude of guards gives him bodies to deploy at the point of attack.
This strikes us as a solidly above-average defense, but not necessarily an elite one. Perhaps that’s overlooking the magic dust that Thibodeau sprinkles on his team every year, or even underestimating a group of veterans to be solid. A natural regression closer to the average does seem like it is in store.
Boston Celtics
Head coach: Ime Udoka, 1st year
2020-21 Record: 36-36
Vegas Line: 45.5 wins
Our Projection: 43-39, 7th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 17th
Def. Rating: 9th
Is anyone else feeling like Brad Stevens’ resignation from head coach and reassingment to President of Basketball Operations happened more than five months ago?
Stevens has packed a lot into his first few months on the job, hiring a coveted young coach in Ime Udoka, reshaping the roster through trades and bringing back popular veteran Al Horford to a city where he thrived. The Celtics are begging to be slept on, with two young superstars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who are a strong enough duo to lead a team deep into the postseason. Horford and Marcus Smart provide identity, playmaking, defense and character next to them.
The rest of the roster is still fairly enigmatic. Dennis Schroder was a great signing for the value of his contract but is prone to going on solo missions too frequently. Josh Richardson is in dire need of a bounce back season. Robert Williams shows flashes of elite potential as a big, but has only played 30 minutes in a game just once in his career. Young role players like Payton Pritchard and Grant Williams are solid but not overly impressive, while others such as Aaron Nesmith and Romeo Langford are prone to ups and downs. It’s hard to count on the Celtics, but it’s even harder to count them out.
Do the Celtics start big with Horford and Timelord together?
As a writer for CelticsBlog, I’m intimately involved in conversations around the team and about their summer, paying attention to them perhaps more than any other. We won’t go into a ton of depth on the Celtics here as a result; you can find our other thoughts and musings over at CB.
One of the first (and more important) articles we wrote there was on the notion of starting big, with Horford and Rob Williams side by side. Udoka has come out and said he doesn’t understand the paranoia fans seem to have about starting two bigs (did he not watch film from last year?) and is considering letting the duo start up front. From our perspective, that makes their second unit incredibly small, with Schroder and Pritchard side-by-side.
We’d consider sliding Payton Pritchard into the first unit, where he can be a shot-maker and floor spacer at the 1 while Horford provides some balance and playmaking on the second unit.
How does Jayson Tatum take another step forward?
Development isn’t linear. That said, the improvement of Jayson Tatum has been one of the most steady, dependable trends over the last few years. If Tatum is to take another leap towards MVP-caliber status, we have some ideas for how he can do it.
Added muscle onto his frame will help him become a better finisher, an area we’ve long thought he underwhelms. Tatum handicaps himself by taking six-foot turnarounds, layups where he’s trying to avoid contact and takeoffs from one foot that reveal a lack of balance.
Fixing those areas over the offseason seems to have been his priority, and we feel that will provide many positive results. If his shot distribution changes towards being a little more heavily at the rim, he should have an increase in two or three points a game.
What should we make of Grant Williams?
Grant needs a niche. He wasn’t very good last year despite the improvement and uptick in his corner 3-point shooting. It was hard to keep Grant on the floor for long stretches, and his lack of a natural position made him easy to squeeze when matchups necessitated a certain type of player. Now that Semi Ojeleye is gone, the frontcourt 4-man defensive stopper will be Grant’s spot to fill.
Quite frankly, Williams needs to be a major 3-point threat to carve out a consistent role. He deserves to be on a roster and is such a consummate pro that he’ll be ready no matter when or what he’s asked to do. But finding rhythm and dependability in a rotation can be difficult for a jack of all trades and master of none. The Celtics roster is set up for him to have a consistent role. Now it’s on him to deliver.
Does the Traded Player Exception come into play this year?
Year after year, the boss in charge of the Celtics front office keeps making use of their traded player exception, thus acquiring a new one and extending the options on the trade market into another season. Boston has a new $17 million TPE created by the Evan Fournier deal with the New York Knicks, and if Boston is in contention, they can look at acquiring a player into that space to propel them over the top.
If the Portland Trail Blazers find themselves reshaping their roster, Robert Covington would be an ideal defensive candidate who can come in and shoot the 3-ball. The need for a Jae Crowder-type who can come in and help defend the Giannis Antetokounmpo or Kevin Durants of the East without sacrificing floor spacing is massive. Terrence Ross from Orlando could be available without a hefty price tag, and would give their bench unit another wing shooter and scoring option if they require one. A few others names could easily come available, but don’t be shocked if this is the year Boston makes the move during the season instead of over the summer with that TPE.
How trustworthy is their backup wing rotation?
Aaron Nesmith, a second-year pro who is a 3-point specialist, had gradual improvement through his rookie season after being putrid out of the gate. As an aside, we’ll likely never forgive Danny Ainge for taking Nesmith over Saddiq Bey.
Josh Richardson has been underwhelming since leaving Miami, now on his third team in as many years. He’s an up-and-down shooter who is more comfortable in the mid-range than spotting up and needs touches to feel included. Romeo Langford has never pieced anything together consistently despite having a great deal of length, natural talent and defensive upside.
The Celtics will go as far as their stars take them, but that shouldn’t go to overlook the importance of a solid bench. If one of these guys emerges as a reliable contributor, 45 wins seems like a cakewalk. If two come, perhaps 50 is win reach.
Philadelphia 76ers
Head coach: Doc Rivers, 2nd year (49-23 record)
2020-21 Record: 49-23
Vegas Line: 50.5 wins
Our Projection: 49-33, 4th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 18th
Def. Rating: 7th
Why can’t the city of Philadelphia have one normal season of basketball? Drama always seems to overtake the franchise, sometimes sabotaging a group that is talented enough to win an NBA Championship. The most recent iteration is the Ben Simmons saga, where one of the league’s best defenders and a unique All-Star talent has requested a trade after vicious lashings from fans, the media and teammates after his failures during the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Simmons is justified for wanting to move on, and his teammates should be justified for the lack of improvements to his game that often derail their offense.
A solution needs to be found, and until one is, there’s far too much volatility in the City of Brotherly Love to feel confident predicting where this season will take them. Joel Embiid should once again be an MVP candidate and there’s enough talent on this roster to advance to the postseason without Simmons. It’s just a strange situation.
Now that he’s back at camp, does Ben Simmons actually play in front of a Philadelphia crowd?
We know Simmons isn’t the outspoken type, nor a guy who naturally commands respect with his effort. That Sixers faithful crowd is likely to boo him out of the building every time he touches it, have zero patience for a poor play and make his life incredibly difficult outside the arena. Fair or not, that’s how that city has treated its pro athletes before.
Both Simmons and the Sixers seem to have come to an understanding that the best way to rehabilitate Simmons’ trade value is to play. It’s just not that simple. Playing at home could be so hostile that we don’t make it through the December 15th trade moratorium on newly-signed players, a common opening bell for player movement around the league. We also haven’t seen an extraordinary amount of mental toughness exuding from Simmons to give us the confidence that he’ll push through the hostilities.
From a team perspective, such an event focused on one individual is distracting from the team goal and could derail their objectives from the outset. At this point, it’s hard to envision Simmons making it through the season in Philadelphia. 41 games in that type of unrelenting environment sounds like misery.
What’s out there for Simmons via trade?
We promise we won’t let this entire section be torpedoed by Ben Simmons. We can’t make the same promise for the Sixers season, though.
From the beginning, Daryl Morey’s asking price for Simmons has been incredibly high. It’s a common tactic: ask for the stars so the other party feels like they got a bargain when they give you the moon. We all see what Morey is doing, but he’ll succeed regardless; the desire to acquire a player of Simmons’ caliber will eventually creep in.
Still, the gap between asking price, reality and offers are still wildly inconsistent. Teams like the Pacers and Kings have some solid players to offer but no major studs. The Blazers and Wizards don’t seem to be making their star players available. Constructing a deal with the interested Timberwolves is complicated due to contract sizes. If a clear deal already existed, we’re sure the Sixers would already be deep into trade talks. Since they aren’t, it’s hard to know if, when, where or for what Simmons could get moved for.
Do the second-year guys move into the rotation permanently?
One of the hidden gems around the league is the success of the Sixers 2020 draft class. Snagging Tyrese Maxey, Isaiah Joe and Paul Reed has put Philadelphia in a territory where their depth is very strong, the young assets give them cache if they need to swing a win-now trade and provide a jolt to the lineup if ever asked to play. Reed, already too good for G-League action, is a bit buried on the depth chart but could find some minutes as the new Mike Scott.
The question, to me, is whether Joe or Maxey leap a veteran to carve a consistent and large role in the rotation. Joe’s 3-point shooting makes him a great fit next to Embiid; the movement shooting when Seth Curry isn’t playing lacks, an easy role for Joe to fill. Plus, he could be fantastic in DHO actions with Andre Drummond.
Maxey remains the one guy we’re a tad lower on than most. He’ll be good and is a competitor who is competent on both ends. The early-season establishment of one of these three would go a long way in helping the Sixers on the trade market. If they have to shift more positions around to make a Simmons trade work, it’s nice to know there’s an abundance of value from their second-year guys.
Will people finally come to appreciate Tobias Harris?
Seriously, do we have to do this every few years?
The cap spikes, and players who hit free agency at just the right time cash in, making more money than those a year or two earlier did. The sheer dollar amount is different, but that doesn’t make the new guys who aren’t full-on superstars overpaid or overrated simply because they make more money than other stars.
Harris falls victim to that in Philly, where there’s an unrealistic expectation that he should be averaging 25, 8 and 5 on that salary. As the third option in Philly, 19.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists is a pretty damn good level of productivity. He shot 39.4% from deep last year, 51% from the field and 89% from the line — teetering on 50-40-90. He had a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. He’s a solid defender. He plays well within the system of head coach Doc Rivers.
Seriously, put some respect on this man’s name. Expecting him to change his game or take on a much different or larger role in the absence of Simmons. Another efficient, high-volumed 20 point per game season is on the horizon, and it’s on us to make sure we don’t take it for granted.
Is Matisse Thybulle ready for a larger role?
Particularly if Simmons moves on, the Sixers will need to rely on another impressive individual defender on the wings. Thybulle has his hand raised and is ready to spring into action. He’s a slock machine, racking up on-ball deflections and swatting shots like it’s his job (spoiler alert: it is).
Thybulle has averaged about 20 minutes a game each season in his career. He’s a middling 3-point shooter, not great at attacking off the bounce and does little to create his own shot. The replacement for Simmons on offense, be it someone who can create for others or drill shots, is vital to getting Thybulle an increased role. Right now, a team built around Harris and Embiid as the only two offensive options might struggle to put Thybulle on the floor for more than 25 minutes a night.
Brooklyn Nets
Head coach: Steve Nash, 2nd year (48-24 record)
2020-21 Record: 48-24
Vegas Line: 56.5 wins
Our Projection: 62-20, 1st in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 1st
Def. Rating: 17th
Good grief. The Nets are in a strange place. Three transcendent stars in Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving attracted a slew of veterans to town. Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Patty Mills and Blake Griffin all bought into the vision to give the Nets a star-studded rotation. Combine that with Brooklyn holdovers at role player spots in Joe Harris and Bruce Brown and the Nets are supremely deep and obvious favorites for the Eastern Conference crown.
That is, before Kyrie Irving and the Nets organization came to the impasse of vaccinations and availability. Thanks to a New York mandate, Irving wouldn’t be eligible for home games or practices, and Nets GM Sean Marks came out and said they wouldn’t cater to a half-in Irving — he either gets vaccinated or stays at home.
Not only does that cloud the vision for this franchise but opens up a new realm of possibilities, from a Kyrie extension being endangered to trade options. To be blunt, the Nets have enough firepower to win without him. The question really becomes whether this entire saga is enough to distract and lower the heights this unquestionably elite roster could accomplish.
Will Kyrie play again with the Nets?
The entire Irving situation is pretty intense and emotional for many. We’ve written about Irving’s decision from a team perspective in the last week, so we won’t go much deeper into our defense of Brooklyn’s decision — they were doing right by the team.
With Irving, motivation for who he is or wants to be always has been difficult to understand. His rationale for being unvaccinated continues to waiver, from skepticism to solidarity with those fired for a mandate and everywhere in between. If there was consistency in his argument or pure selflessness at heart in an evident way, we could bank on Irving coming around and embracing the championship that could hang in the balance.
Frankly, it’s hard to argue that Irving is motivated by championships or team success. He bailed on the Cleveland Cavaliers during the LeBron era to have his own shop in Boston. If championships were a motivating factor to Kyrie, it’s hard to imagine him asking out for the Celtics. That’s always been our bugaboo with Irving: much of what he stands for runs contrary to ideals of sacrifice and dedication which are vital in team sports. Part of me is inclined to believe the Nets have a better chance of winning without him.
Can we get Nic Claxton some minutes, please?
Big Claxton fan here. Top-20 guy for is back in 2019 who hasn’t let us down yet. He’s a versatile defensive big, a better finisher than anyone thought he’d be and still has some shooting potential left on the bone. He’s a rotation-caliber big.
The issue is that the Nets have gone out of their way to add veteran bigs to this team, such as Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap and LaMarcus Aldridge to block his pathway to minutes. Claxton played almost 11 minutes a game last postseason, and wasn’t as potent as his regular season impact might have suggested. As with any young player, the way to improve that isn’t to bury him on the bench but to play him.
If the Nets are going to give Claxton serious regular season minutes while saving the three elder statesmen health-wise for the playoffs, that makes sense in a way we can’t argue. But if Claxton proves he’s deserving of a larger role come the postseason, and Nash doesn’t give it to him anyway, we’ll be “big mad” as the kids would say.
Will Blake Griffin or LaMarcus Aldridge hold up defensively during the playoffs?
Over the course of a seven-game series, the Nets will have enough offensive firepower to score on anybody. They could even run away with a series just by making shots. The problem is that there isn’t a single big man on this roster with defensive seasoning at the 5 during the playoffs. Aldridge and Griffin, career 4s in their prime, resisted the move to the center position for much of their careers. Now, necessitated by age and the loss of a half-step, they’re both the best options Brooklyn has at the position.
That could provide a scare during a seven-game series, when other great offenses try to go blow for blow with Brooklyn. Can Griffin or Aldridge anchor a solid PNR defense? Griffin got annihilated during the 2021 playoffs for the Nets, a group that was 22nd during the regular season in defensive rating. Regardless of how many stars they have or what the shot-making looks like, this rotation of bigs doesn’t inspire much confidence that they’ll get stops.
Will rookie Cam Thomas force his way into the regular rotation?
One of the stories of Summer League and the preseason is just how damn impressive Cam Thomas’ scoring package has been. The dude is a certified bucket; he was in high school and was at LSU. He creates space for himself off the bounce, is consistent at making tough shots and has a silky jumper. He’s a natural-born scorer.
But Thomas is best with the ball in his hands. While there’s little doubt he’s a rotation-caliber player and would have a strong role on 29 other teams, the Nets are the exception. They already have two of the best isolation scorers in the world; a third if Irving comes back. Thomas is just another mouth to feed, and other role playing veterans who can do other things on the floor or embrace their role might become more important. Look, he’s a great insurance policy to have and a talented kid. But he isn’t a shoo-in to get minutes with these Nets in important moments.
Can Durant and Harden do the championship heavy lifting without Kyrie?
Can they? Yes. Will it be more difficult? Also yes.
This roster is just too deep to bet against KD and Harden leading Brooklyn deep into the postseason. Joe Harris is an elite shooting threat off movement and in spot-up situations; his gravity within the three-man actions the Nets love to run adds a dimension to their offense that’s near impossible to stop.
Patty Mills and Bruce Brown are the perfect championship role players. Mills is tremendous on both ends, drills shots from deep and can steady a second unit better than anyone in the league. Brown buys into whatever he’s asked to do, mainly rebounding, defending and screening to force switches for the stars to feast upon. There’s enough offensive talent in the frontcourt to spread defenses out, create in different areas and prevent a major falloff when one of Harden or Durant sit.
This is a championship-caliber roster from top to bottom, and they’ll be an attractive landing spot for veterans this winter. Regardless of what happens with Irving, the expectations should remain the same without concern: championship or bust.