5x5 NBA Season Preview: Central Division
Five teams, five questions. What is the outlook for each Central Division team?
The NBA season is quickly enclosing us. After two strange and unprecedented seasons, this summer provided anything but relaxation. No, star players like Damian Lillard and Ben Simmons became engulfed in trade rumors, several teams shook up their coaching staffs, player movement was furious in free agency and the Eastern Conference took several steps forward towards being better than the last several years.
Now, it’s time to look backward at what has happened to inform what might happen moving forward. We’ll tackle each team through the lens of the five most important questions they face this year. Some questions are about timeline and process, while others ponder the fit of the roster. At the very least, this serves as a great launching pad into the 2021-22 NBA season.
We start with the Central Division, home of the reigning champion Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are once again the class of their division, though the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers are two of the East’s more underrated groups that could find themselves in the postseason — and with better seeding than you might think.
Detroit Pistons
Head coach: Dwane Casey, 4th season (81-139 record)
2020-21 Record: 20-52
Vegas Line: 24.5 wins
Our Projection: 23-59, 14th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 28th
Def. Rating: 25th
The Pistons enter the new era of their rebuild with a bonafide franchise star in top pick Cade Cunningham. With three first-round selections in 2020 (Killian Hayes, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart) to join Cade in the youth movement, it’s clear the Pistons aren’t a top contender in the conference. The effectiveness of their youth movement does hinge upon the work of their young core to become ready to make a leap a year or two down the line.
Will Killian Hayes look like the top ten talent he was drafted as?
There’s no way around it: Hayes really struggled as a rookie. He only played in 26 games due to injury, missing the middle chunk of the season. His pre-injury stats were pretty abysmal: only 4.6 points and 3.6 assists in 21 minutes per game, with a dastardly 27.7% field goal mark and 2.4 turnovers per game. He couldn’t make a shot, never got to the line (he took two free throws in seven games) and didn’t have enough quickness to beat other point guards off the bounce.
Hayes got better, though. Over his last eight games, his stat line was very different: 9.6 points and 6.5 assists in 31.6 minutes, shooting 39% from the field. He looked a bit more comfortable, but still had some concerning numbers: only eight free throws taken, a ridiculous 4.1 turnovers a night and still below-average in terms of converting from the field.
While all eyes will be on Cade to lead the team, Hayes has several areas to improve if he wants to stay on the floor next to Cade, let alone be the franchise’s point guard of the future. His off-ball impact as a spot-up shooter must improve. The turnovers have to go down, and he cannot be a 6’5” point guard who doesn’t get to the free throw line.
How does Casey balance running the offense through Cade Cunningham and Jerami Grant?
The Pistons best player is Jerami Grant. Their best prospect is Cade Cunningham. From an organizational perspective, the Pistons stand to gain from Grant producing at a high level: it drives up his trade value in the event they want to move on. Grant, who is described as “the man” by Casey, will reportedly have the majority of the offense run through him this year as their go-to scorer.
If Cunningham is able to play the style he’s best at, having Grant will only exacerbate Cade’s role on this team. He’s a guy who always makes the right play and is a willing passer at every moment. Grant’s presence will really help his adjustment to the league, but let’s not get it mixed: if the Pistons aren’t surprising teams to push for a playoff berth, Cade’s role only needs to increase as the year progresses.
Does Isaiah Stewart take the next step in his development?
It’s sacrilegious to say that any rookie is good their first year in the league. Stewart was about as solid and consistent as you’ll find, completely proving our pre-draft evaluation on him wrong. Stewart came on down the stretch, even moving into the starting lineup. Over his final 32 games, Stewart averaged 24 minutes a night, putting up 10.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.5 blocks while going 54.5% from the field and 33% from deep with almost two attempts per night.
The next step in his development? Keeping that jumper getting better and putting up the same numbers while playing close to 30 or 32 minutes a night. If he moves into that territory, Stewart will average a double-double based on his motor alone. He could be one of the league’s elite rebounders in a year or two, but the development of his offensive game as dependable is what we’ll be watching.
How do the Pistons balance Kelly Olynyk’s minutes with Stewart’s?
It might be fair to say that Cunningham, a brilliant passer, is best when surrounded by shooters. If he and Grant are on the wings, and 3-point sniper Saddiq Bey fills in the gaps, the Pistons are pretty full at the 2 thru 4 spots. Unless they go super-sized and put Cade at the 1 (hey, we’ve seen stranger things happen), Casey will have to decide between the floor spacing of Olynyk and the prioritization of development for Stewart.
Olynyk, coming off a renaissance season in Houston, was the perfect stretch big to provide offensive potency around Cade. Defensively, a group with Cade at the 1 and Olynyk at the 4 would be a mess, so don’t count on seeing he and Stewart together with their big lineup too often. The point of signing Olynyk isn’t necessarily to bolster the second unit, but provide spacing for Hayes and Cunningham to live in the lane. That’s hard to do when his minutes don’t overlap with the young guards too much.
Does another young player step up in Detroit?
The byproduct of starting from scratch with a roster is that, inevitably, someone from the fringes steps up and becomes a long-term contributor. Outside of the four first-rounders from the last two years, there are a ton of candidates on this Pistons roster. Saben Lee and Frank Jackson can really score in the backcourt. Hamidou Diallo and Josh Jackson are athletically talented and have shown flashes. Rookie Isaiah Livers is a role player cut from the same cloth as Saddiq Bey. If (at least) one of those five emerge, the Pistons will have a solid foundation of bodies to depend on long-term and a much clearer vision for where to fill in the gaps.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Head coach: JB Bickerstaff, 2nd full season (27-56 record)
2020-21 Record: 22-50
Vegas Line: 26.5 wins
Our Projection: 25-57, 13th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 27th
Def. Rating: 24th
From a talent perspective, the Cavaliers roster contains several players we think highly of. Evan Mobley is a top-five talent from this stacked draft class. Collin Sexton is a legitimate scorer in this league and is vastly underrated. Darius Garland is ready to take the next step and, in our opinion, is the team’s best player. Role players like Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen and Isaac Okoro are all pieces that can contribute to a winning formula.
The collection of talent seems to mesh poorly in Cleveland. Mobley and Allen, both best fitting as defensive stalwarts who don’t space the floor at a high level, are difficult to play together. Sexton and Garland struggle to play alongside each other from a defensive perspective. The roster is baren of wings to fill in the gaps — at least those who are effective floor spacers. It’s a crowded mix of young talent that we are incredibly curious to see unfold.
Is Sexton staying in Cleveland long-term?
The Cavaliers have needed a go-to scorer, and Sexton has provided that for them. Over three seasons in the league, he’s a career 20 point per game scorer, has been over 47% from the field the last two years and topped four assists per game in 2021 for the first time in his career. He’s one of only 15 guys to hit all those benchmarks last year.
Still, Sexton doesn’t feel like a wanted man in Cleveland. The thought of paying big money to a high-volume shooter who isn’t a true point guard can be lost on some. To me, there’s a simple piece to this equation: the Cavs are a small market team, and Sexton is much more talented than anyone they’ll be able to replace him with via free agency. They can’t just let him walk. It makes much more sense, if the organization has faith in Garland, to try and deal him now, but there may not be a suitor available for the right cost.
Sexton certainly hasn’t proven that he’s a max player in terms of anchoring a playoff contender to him, but he’s statistically produced at a max level, making the upcoming negotiations between the two sides a major storyline.
Mobley at the 4… is this a long-term plan that makes sense?
The short answer, in our book, is no. Mobley isn’t a big-time shooter, or even a proven one on small sample sizes. We saw him as a post, and not a 4, simply because he’s going to struggle off the bounce when guarded by those who are able to undercut his simple dribbles and can hold up against his propensity to back them down.
Mobley is supremely skilled and can make it work alright by playing at this spot. Certainly as a skinny rookie it’s the best way to preserve his body. But the Cavs would be foolish to envision a frontcourt of he and Jarrett Allen providing enough long-term spacing.
Which leads us to…
Where does the floor spacing come from when Okoro and Allen play together?
The Cavs are already spatially challenged in their frontcourt. Okoro (29% from 3 on three attempts per game) and Allen (who made only six triples last year) are two guys we’d classify as non-shooters. At all times, one will be spotting up in an off-ball role. Add Mobley (30% at USC) into the equation and the Cavs shrink the floor around their two talented guards.
From a rotational standpoint, Okoro is almost more important than Mobley. His defense is required next to Garland and Sexton to take a top perimeter threat, and the rotation behind him is so thin that no other option fits nicely into the top group. Spacing will be a constant worry for JB Bickerstaff and company to manufacture.
Can Darius Garland take the next step and ascend to become their clear best player?
The answer to “can he” is a pretty simple and resounding “yes”. Stephen Curry and several other stars appear to think so. The more appropriate question is “how”, especially within the confines provided when sharing reps with Collin Sexton.
We’ve written on Garland in the past, so we won’t beat a dead horse, but we’re incredibly high on him becoming this team’s franchise alpha. The best way to do it? Give him plenty of pick-and-roll reps, surround him with shooting and let him play above the break as much as possible. We’ll see if the Cavs are willing to, or even can, create an environment that lets Garland thrive in those ways.
Will Kevin Love finish the season in Cleveland?
Love has been an NBA champion, a pioneer of the frontcourt floor spacing revolution and is beloved for his social activism off the court. Those shouldn’t excuse the manner he’s handled the rebuild with the Cavs. On an albatross contract nearly impossible to trade, Love has publicly complained and had several on-court outbursts or effortless quips that signal his impatience with staying in Cleveland. When his camp came out and mentioned Love is unwilling to give back money as part of a buyout, he cemented that untradeable status.
Frankly, Love is closer to a veteran’s minimum helper than anything else for a contender. The only way Love doesn’t finish the season with the Cavs is if he gets the buyout itch come February and March, and revisits his position on giving back some salary.
Indiana Pacers
Head coach: Rick Carlisle, 1st season
2020-21 Record: 34-38
Vegas Line: 42.5 wins
Our Projection: 42-40, 8th in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 13th
Def. Rating: 18th
Run it back! A franchise struck with injuries time and time again, the Pacers couldn’t make a decision on whether to enter a full rebuild until they actually saw their group at full strength. On paper, the combination of All-Star Domantas Sabonis, well-rounded guard Malcolm Brogdon, coveted youngster Caris LeVert and high-quality options in Myles Turner and TJ Warren are a playoff team.
The Pacers enter training camp with two of those five already banged up. LeVert, oft-injured as he is, has a fracture in his back, an injury not said to be incredibly serious but in a troublesome location. Warren is slower in his rehab and recovery from injuries that ended his season in 2021. New hire Rick Carlisle can maximize this team’s offensive trajectory, even with two bigs in Sabonis and Turner, but there’s no substitute for actually having your best players available.
How does Carlisle plan on balancing Turner and Sabonis together?
For a deep dive into Carlisle’s playbook, please visit our recent piece on his fit with the Pacers or our podcast with Caitlin Cooper.
A quick synopsis: Carlisle utilizes Philly actions and step-up screens that allow both to be screeners. Other than Dirk, who was an elite quick-threat shooter, Carlisle hasn’t run offense through his bigs, creating a unique challenge for how to best let Sabonis play to his strengths (post-ups, DHOs) while Turner is on the floor.
If there’s anyone who can find a way to get them to fit, it’s the X’s and O’s wizard Carlisle.
Are the Pacers truly in the hunt to acquire an All-Star via trade?
They certainly have the pieces, both from a talent and a salary perspective. The biggest holdups likely would be overvaluation of those players (such as oft-injured TJ Warren or Myles Turner) and the franchise’s willingness to include draft picks. The Pacers, if they acquire a star, likely ascend into the upper echelons of the East, meaning a top-20 pick isn’t in the cards. Those can be tricky in terms of negotiations and could lead to the Pacers parting from multiple picks instead.
Does Caris LeVert or Malcolm Brogdon key the offense in crunch time?
Last year, the Pacers were overly reliant on the high pick-and-roll between Brogdon and Sabonis. The result was Brogdon developing comfort there, but the offense wasn’t as dynamic from a one-on-one shot-making perspective. Brogdon’s value is in the fact he can play off-ball and not be a ball-dominant guy. It’s great that his play has evolved to the point where he’s comfortable in high volume; he’s one of the more underrated guards in the league. But hammering the high pick-and-roll with Brogdon as the fulcrum time and time again simply doesn’t strike fear in anyone’s hearts.
Enter LeVert, a competent creator for others but someone best at creating his own shot. To me, those are the guys who get leaned on most heavily when the game is on the line, and Caris has earned enough credit with his prior performances to justify the ball going to his control.
Is Chris Duarte ready for important minutes?
Perhaps the most underrated, painful departure in the league was Doug McDermott taking off from the Pacers. He was an excellent 3-point threat, their entire second unit offense was built around him with stagger screens and he wasn’t bad inside the arc, either.
Rookie Chris Duarte was clearly drafted with the hope of filling that role left by Douggie McBuckets, and to do so right away. The 24-year-old rookie is the oldest in the class and is a shooting specialist with a little more pop off the bounce. McDermott’s exit was likely cemented once Carlisle came to town, though that doesn’t make it any less painful to see such an important source of points and floor spacing set sail. Duarte needs to be ready to go.
Hey, if Duarte is needed in important minutes, that at least means there are important minutes being played in Indianapolis…
Will we see the Pacers tear things down next June if this roster can’t get healthy?
Already opening camp with injuries to their core, it feels like we need to address the elephant in the room: what happens if they can’t get healthy? Too many contracts are up soon for the Pacers to go into 2022-23 unsure of their long-term plan. This year could lead to a playoff berth, but even if it does, we need to see the Pacers at full strength to know who fits best.
Don’t be surprised if there’s a major shakeup in Indianapolis next summer — and not one that leads to a long-term rebuild. Rick Carlisle wasn’t hired to go through that process.
Chicago Bulls
Head coach: Billy Donovan, 2nd season (31-41 record)
2020-21 Record: 31-41
Vegas Line: 42.5 wins
Our Projection: 52-30, 3rd in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 7th
Def. Rating: 12th
Chicago’s restructured front office, led by Arturas Karnisovas, are hoping to turn an aggressive summer into a fruitful season. The Bulls sacrificed several first-round picks to pull off deals for Nikola Vucevic, Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan, three veterans who construct the team’s most competitive core since Zach LaVine came to town. Absent from those four: an elite defender who can turn this team into a two-way monster.
Few doubt the Bulls offensive potency. On defense and with their depth, there are still question marks and few avenues remaining to improve. A 42.5 win total projection does seem conservative for such an experienced, scoring-minded group. How much further they advance will depend on the answers to several questions.
Is Patrick Williams ready to start on a team with contending aspirations?
The fifth cog in their starting rotation is young second-year Patrick Williams. Williams had a solidly impressive rookie campaign, more so with his offensive readiness than being an elite defender out of the gates. With this iteration of the Bulls, Pat’s role will be much different: more a spot-up threat on offense and the necessary anchor to their defense.
That’s a lot of pressure to put on a second-year pro. Williams shot 39% from 3 last year, far exceeding our expectations based on the college film. He has much more upside than be the fifth starter circa Jae Crowder with the Suns; fighting for and justifying touches on an already stacked roster is hard to do, though. He may have to sacrifice a bit in order for the Bulls to win games — and he needs to be alright with that. The team has very few options if Williams can’t go.
Thus far, through preseason absences, that hasn’t been a major concern. The Bulls will be alright without him, now we’re curious to see how they look with him.
How does Billy Donovan juggle his backcourt rotation?
The Bulls backcourt is divided into two parts: the scoring-minded alphas (LaVine and Coby White) and the ball-moving defenders (Lonzo and Alex Caruso). Play two alphas together and there’s very little facilitating for others or high-level defense. Play two ball-movers and nobody collapses the defense or gets to the paint.
Donovan, the experienced coach that he is, now must figure out which buttons to press when so that the lineups in the backcourt work. We’d argue that both Caruso and White are too talented to be playing fewer than 16 minutes a night, so trotting out some three-guard lineups will happen on most nights. Another reason those multi-guard lineups are important: DeRozan is likely best-served guarding the 4 at this stage in his career.
If the Bulls win enough games, these veterans will be able to recruit a bit on the buyout market in March and add a few more pieces. The crux of their second unit, White and Caruso, are already in place, which makes finding those veteran minimum signings a lot easier. All Donovan has to do is make sure the balance of the scorers and defenders is on point and the talent will take care of the rest.
Why did the Bulls pull the trigger on being so aggressive this summer?
Can we make an easy quip and say “ownership?”
In all seriousness, the Bulls were the surprise team of the summer by mortgaging their future in such an inflexible way to add veterans like Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan to join the fold. The 32-year-old DeRozan got a massive deal while also needing the Bulls to give up a small army to make the acquisition work via sign-and-trade: a 2025 1st round pick, 2025 2nd round pick, Thad Young and Al-Farouq Aminu. The double-whammy of the salary and the draft picks is a tough pill to swallow.
Likewise, the sign-and-trade for Lonzo (a 2024 2nd round pick), Tomas Satoransky and Garrett Temple helped deplete their depth. The midseason trade last year for Nikola Vucevic (Wendell Carter Jr., 2021 and 2023 1st round picks) already mortgaged their future.
The Bulls have to sense that either there’s an opportunity to win and push in the East, or the urgency to keep LaVine happy in order to keep him around. The frustrating part is that, unless they make a legitimate run to the Eastern Conference Finals in the next two years, this is clearly not worth the trouble. The cupboard is baren in the future; they’ll win enough games to play themselves out of having solid picks in 2022 and 2024.
Continually, the lack of patience from ownership when building a team amazes me. These are (supposedly) wildly successful businessmen who make financial decisions and understand product optimization. The LaVine situation is their only bailout to show a sense of urgency before losing their best young player, but the complete swinging of the pendulum towards older, veterans on expensive deals at the behest of LaVine is a tad baffling.
Can they get stops when they need to?
There’s no way to answer this question until we see it in action. The Bulls are a veteran group with some playoff experience but no plus defenders within those vets. You would think their collective experience and understanding of the moment will allow them to be competent, but digging in during the regular season isn’t always easy.
The Bulls will likely be fine defensively — not good, but fine. A Donovan-coached team has never finished worse than 13th defensively, so he’ll figure out how to cobble together a competent group. Honestly, the constant worries about defense for a team of veterans is always overblown. These guys find ways to figure it out when the game is on the line. We aren’t worried about the Bulls in the slightest, part of why we think they’ll win 50 games, one of the most aggressive win totals you’ll see thrown out for the new boys in the Windy City.
Will the lack of depth, especially on the wings, come back to haunt them?
To me, this is the real question plaguing the Bulls. Donovan and urgency will make the defense passable, but there’s no depth (particularly up front) if injuries take place. One flutter to their rotation and the Bulls are in a tough spot. Part of that is dictated by our lack of faith in a few contributors they’ll have to count on — the erratic Derrick Jones Jr., the hard-working but unproven Tony Bradley and the somewhat underwhelming Troy Brown Jr.
The common thread between their backups: not a ton of shooting. If one player in the starting group misses more than 15 games, the Bulls will feel that in their win totals. With so many offensive focal points who can roam free against opposing second units, the best strategy would be to surround the stars with shooters. Expect to see Karnisovas active around the deadline or on the buyout market for some veteran help with that second unit. They’ll need it come playoff time.
Milwaukee Bucks
Head coach: Mike Budenholzer, 4th season (162-65 record)
2020-21 Record: 46-26
Vegas Line: 54.5 wins
Our Projection: 56-26, 2nd in Eastern Conference
Off. Rating: 3rd
Def. Rating: 3rd
The monkey is officially off their backs. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Mike Budenholzer and the entire organization conquered their ultimate task. The 2020 NBA Playoffs were only 12 months ago, and following the shortest offseason in league history the Bucks played a grueling 2021 schedule. Some top players, such as Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, went onto Tokyo for Olympic competition after the championship.
What’s the point in highlighting their daunting last thirteen months? The internal factors at play will make repeating a challenge uniquely theirs. Budenholzer has a lot to manage, and now the security as a champion to manage effectively, but these Bucks are largely the same team that climbed the mountain just a few months ago.
Should we panic if the Bucks don’t win 55 games in the regular season?
Clearly, the benefit of winning an NBA title is that the Bucks now won’t be seen as a “regular-season team” again. As such, a more patient approach is alright from Budenholzer, who can prioritize health and prep for the postseason. There are enough younger, hungrier, competent rotation-enders to help bridge the gaps and remain competitive if the veterans need to rest a bit.
Ultimately, the Bucks will be poised for another deep run regardless of where they seed in the East. So long as Giannis and Middleton are healthy for the playoffs, the Bucks will be just fine. Don’t get too caught up in seeding.
What do we make of Budenholzer making adjustments as often as he did during the playoffs?
Prior to the ascension of a banner, Bud was seen as a coach on the hot seat: a regular season winner and not a schemer for the playoffs. A perception existed that Budenholzer wouldn’t tinker with his rotations or change schemes, a stubborn curmudgeon who wouldn’t adjust. That’s not entirely fair, a national narrative that spun out of control as an easy scapegoat for the Bucks not doing away with bigs like Brook Lopez and letting Giannis have free reign.
That doesn’t mean what we saw in the playoffs was apparent before. Honestly, Budenholzer’s tinkering felt like a guy knowing he needed to win trying everything at his disposal, throwing spaghetti against the wall and seeing what would stick. He knew the narrative existed and acted desperately to save face.
Enough positive came out of the adjustments — counters to the Suns’ top-locking, more Giannis at the 5 moments, switching ball screens to encourage isolations against Brook Lopez — that the Bucks will inculcate them to their gameplans moving forward and become an even more dangerous regular season team.
How much will the Bucks miss PJ Tucker?
There’s no great way to quantify absence. For a guy like Tucker, whose best value was in relieving Giannis of the top defensive duty and physically bombarding Kevin Durant in the postseason, it’s even harder to do so.
Regardless, Tucker’s absence will be felt for a long time and ultimately detrimental to the Bucks. They didn’t replace him with a similar-quality veteran, and it will change the way the Bucks play come playoff time. First, Giannis will likely have to take those assignments on himself, and that tires him out. Second, the Bucks will have one fewer player they must hide in the corner on offense. The results may come out in the wash during the regular season, and placing too much value on Tucker’s defensive impact might be shortchanging guys like DiVincenzo, Connaughton or even Middleton.
Which new addition steps up the most to round out the rotation?
We actually liked the Bucks offseason. Sure, losing Tucker isn’t easy, but retaining him might not have been worth the luxury tax payments, and Bobby Portis was the top priority thanks to a lack of depth at the 5. We’re pretty high on Grayson Allen being a solid fit in Budenholzer’s 5-out offense and providing a scoring spark off the bench; he’s a great juxtaposition to Connaughton and DiVincenzo.
One other name to watch, who isn’t necessarily a new addition, is Jordan Nwora. Nwora is a sharpshooting wing who can play 2 thru 4 spots and gets hot in a hurry. If he’s able to slide into the back end of the rotation and play impactful defense, the Bucks could have one of the more solid bench units in the Eastern Conference.
How does this roster compete with the Brooklyn Nets?
I’m not one to assume preseason projections will come through, so calling a Bucks-Nets Eastern Conference Finals a foregone conclusion would be a gross misstep. That said, Bucks fans are gearing up for Brooklyn, clearly the most talented group in the East. That will remain the case, even if Kyrie Irving doesn’t suit up for the team this year.
When it comes down to it, you need to stop the Nets in transition and bank on them not making shots. Switching complex actions like their Pistol or Scissors looks isn’t easy, but when done right it neutralizes their three-man actions. You have to pound them on the interior when Blake Griffin or LaMarcus Aldridge play the 5. And you have to find ways to control the switching: there are too many elite scorers to switch everything every time. The Nets are masters at creating mismatches through the switch and punishing it.
If the Bucks want to win the East again, they’ll need another superhuman performance from Antetokounmpo and mastermind defensive games from Middleton and Holiday. It’s doable, but the Nets are going to be the team to beat this year.