5x5 NBA Season Preview: Northwest Division
Five teams, five questions. We look at the Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets and more
The NBA season is quickly enclosing us. After two strange and unprecedented seasons, this summer provided anything but relaxation. No, star players like Damian Lillard and Ben Simmons became engulfed in trade rumors, several teams shook up their coaching staffs, player movement was furious in free agency and the Eastern Conference took several steps forward towards being better than the last several years.
Now, it’s time to look backward at what has happened to inform what might happen moving forward. We’ll tackle each team through the lens of the five most important questions they face this year. Some questions are about timeline and process, while others ponder the fit of the roster. At the very least, this serves as a great launching pad into the 2021-22 NBA season.
This year’s Northwest Division is chocked full of interesting storylines. There’s the Damian Lillard storyline in Portland, now playing for a new coach in Chauncey Billups. There’s the Jamal Murray injury and how that could impact the Nuggets season. The Utah Jazz, fresh off one of the most dominant regular seasons ever, are running it back and still somehow underrated. There’s a lot to watch and plenty of questions to answer…
Oklahoma City Thunder
Head coach: Mark Daigneault, 2nd year (22-50 overall)
2020-21 Record: 22-50
Vegas Line: 23.5 wins
Our Projection: 13-69, 15th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 30th
Def. Rating: 28th
When Sam Presti pressed reset, his finger might have gotten stuck to the button. This Thunder team is young. Only two guys boast more than four years of experience: Derrick Favors and Mike Muscala. There are six rookies, five players who cannot legally have an alcoholic beverage and only one (Favors) who has started for a playoff team.
It’s a full-on rebuild, but that doesn’t mean we should take our eyes off the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a legitimate superstar, and he’ll carry the offense forward for the next half-decade at least. Scouts and talent developers are anxiously watching the improvements of Aleksej Pokusevski, a unicorn draft prospect, and Josh Giddey, an 18-year-old whiz kid point guard who already stands 6’8”. The Thunder won’t win many games, will struggle to score and have lots of growing pains. But they aren’t nearly as helpless as many other teams who have bottomed out, due in large part to the collection of young talent they’ve already assembled and the slew of future draft picks.
How do Giddey and Shai look together?
This.
This is what it’s all about. Drafting Giddey sixth overall shows a supreme amount of faith in his size, playmaking and skill translating. Giddey struggles as a shooter and doesn’t have a great first step. He relies on his length and craftiness, so playing him at the point where he’s guarded by smaller guys might be a smart move.
Shai and Giddey are the backcourt of the future in Oklahoma City. Building around them is the pathway forward, and it seems like the Thunder are going for skill, length, size at every position and major IQ players.
How they fit together will depend on floor spacing and being surrounded by shooters…
Where does the 3-point shooting come from?
Having two slashing, drive-first options in the backcourt will certainly change the requirements of long-term wings in Oklahoma City. Last year, the Thunder were 29th in the NBA in 3-point shooting, making only 33.9% of their triples. That comes with SGA shooting over 41% from deep, a number that might come down to earth and that does little to surround him with shooting threats.
There are options in the backcourt, mainly Ty Jerome (43.2% on 5 attempts per game), Theo Maledon (33.5% on 4.8 attempts) and rookie Tre Mann. All three would significantly shrink the size of an OKC lineup, playing three guards and therefore negating the awesome size advantage present from playing Giddey and SGA at the 1 and 2.
The options on the wing aren’t much better. Lu Dort (34.3% on 6.3 attempts) is their best bet after Poku (28% on 4.6 attempts) really struggled a season ago. Stretch-5 Mike Muscala may have to garner minutes just to keep the spacing afloat, despite the need for younger guys like Isaiah Roby to carve out major roles. Darius Bazley (29%) and unproven options like Jeremiah Robinson-Earl or Aaron Wiggins don’t necessarily provide confidence.
Look, the Thunder have talent here, but it’s all about how the young talent blends and who emerges as a shooter. They’re dead last in our offensive rating projections, and a team we predict to win fewer than 15 games, because the 3-point game is so firmly stacked against them.
Will people outside Oklahoma City realize how good Isaiah Roby is?
One of the steals of the draft a couple years ago, Isaiah Roby from Nebraska has turned himself into one of the most functional mobile bigs the league has. Standing only 6’8”, Roby isn’t a true 4 or 5, splitting his minutes fairly evenly between each spot a season ago. He’s a phenomenal passer, averaging 2.7 dimes per 36 minutes in the frontcourt spot and emerging as a strong playmaker in Delay actions or atop the key.
With Al Horford gone, the role is his to fill full-time, and we expect Roby to start the 5 despite being a tad undersized. His strong frame should allow him to do alright, but it’s the supreme offensive skill that attracts us to his game. He’s a legitimate NBA rotation big who should be able to play 20 minutes a night on a playoff team. We’re betting on a big step forward for Roby.
How does Mark Daigneault balance his rotations with this many young guys to evaluate and prepare?
God bless you, Mark Daigneault.
The development specialist from Leominster, Mass (pronounced Lemon-ster, for all you non-New Englanders) has a tall task ahead. He won’t hit on every player and turn all their youngsters into rotation-caliber guys. But he’ll have to find a way to balance the meritocracy of giving those who earn it out the gates opportunity and letting those who don’t experience trial by fire.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey take priority for minutes due to their development. How does Daigneault give opportunity to Tre Mann, Theo Maledon and Ty Jerome fairly? Maledon, in particular, has earned a fairly large role, even if it’s with the second unit.
How does the presence of Lu Dort, Pokusevski or Bazley, three projects the Thunder have undertaken the last couple of years, impact the minutes available to guys like Gabriel Deck, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl or Aaron Wiggins? There are only so many minutes to go around, and Daigneault now finds himself leading a roster that is so suddenly young that the balancing act could be very difficult.
Will the crunch of future draft picks mean these youngsters have a short leash?
Judging rookies based on their performance isn’t always a great indicator of success. Yet the Thunder are poised to squeeze their roster even more after the 2022 NBA Draft. Including their own, OKC could have four first-round picks. They have the Clippers unprotected first, the Suns top-12 protected (which is almost a guarantee to convey) and the Pistons’ top-16 protected (likely to get pushed to future years).
Herein lies the danger of the asset stockpiling game. When all those assets come due, do you have a place to put them all? Consolidation will have to happen, and while it’s easier to trade picks than players, it’s so hard to count on getting a good enough evaluation of young players currently on the roster to know who to plan around.
As such, we’re worried the Thunder’s current crop of rookies who don’t get ample opportunity this year are going to get squeezed, drafted over or marginalized. That doesn’t invalidate the entire process of the rebuild by any means, nor mean Presti’s strategy is flawed. This is simply one consequence of their path to a rebuild.
Portland Trail Blazers
Head coach: Chauncey Billups, 1st year
2020-21 Record: 42-30
Vegas Line: 44.5 wins
Our Projection: 40-42, 10th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 12th
Def. Rating: 27th
Part of this feels like one last go-’round for the Blazers. Making the Western Conference Finals in 2019 was a lucky ascent, and that run likely masked the shortcomings of the roster. Two years later, general manager Neil Olshey is hanging on for dear life. He’s trying to keep Damian Lillard happy, doubling down on new coach Chauncey Billups after a sloppy hiring process caught headlines for all the wrong reasons.
This roster has its flaws, mainly defensive — no matter what Olshey tells you, this isn’t a strong defensive group. Their plug-and-play wing methodology continues yet again, while Lillard and CJ McCollum run the offense from the points of attack. Lillard asking for a trade is not a foregone conclusion, but this is a roster squarely on the verge of needing a big shakeup. They have the talent to make the playoffs year in and year out, but not enough talent to avoid teetering on the line of NBA purgatory.
Is Olshey right about the defense?
When Terry Stotts got the boot and Billups was brought in, Olshey was not shy about letting his thoughts on Stotts’ defensive coaching acumen rip.
This is the year we find out. The Blazers were putrid defensively a year ago while Jusuf Nurkic missed some time (and was inconsistent with effort when healthy), McCollum and Lillard were the predictable sieves in the bakcourt and Norman Powell, an offensive bazooka, was added to the rotation at the 3. By my count, that’s four players in the starting group who specialize on the offensive end, far too much for one player like Robert Covington to compensate for.
In fairness, that five-man unit was wildly successful for Portland, and the addition of backup big man Larry Nance Jr. will go a long way to stabilizing their defense. But not blaming the roster when the only team beneath them defensively was the worst-ever Sacramento Kings feels like the ultimate scapegoat move on Olshey’s part. We don’t have much confidence he’ll be vindicated on this one.
What does Chauncey Billups run?
A first-time head coach, Chauncey inherits a typically top-ten offense that had a major identity under Terry Stotts. Their flow-based, circular motion with down screens, flares and ball screens was a joy to watch and provided ample spacing at all times.
We have gotten glimpses into Billups’ playbook during the preseason, but the lighter minutes load on the core group makes it hard to draw many conclusions from there. Billups realistically can only mess this up; there’s so much scoring talent here it’s insane. How he blends that scoring together in a positive way remains to be seen.
Did their bench get better this offseason?
To us, this is a resounding yes. Gone are Carmelo Anthony, Rodney Hood, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Enes Kanter.
In are Nance, Mr. Solid Cody Zeller, Tony Snell (Mr. 50-40-90 last year) and Ben McLemore, the ideal fill-in candidate if one of their starters in the backcourt gets hurt. They help a lot more with defense (Zeller is an upgrade over Kanter, while Nance and Snell are really strong on that end), which is exactly what the Blazers needed.
That improved depth means the Blazers don’t have to rush their one man of mystery, Nassir Little. Little showed flashes last year and is a guy we’re really fascinated by as a 6’5” human torpedo. If they can settle into a solid rotation, and still get quality minutes out of Anfernee Simons in the backcourt, the Blazers will be the deepest they’ve been in years.
Are they talented enough to avoid the Play-In Tournament?
With the added rules of play-in tournaments, there are really only six locks for the playoffs; everyone 7 through 10 has to fight for their way in. That means the Blazers are aiming for one of the top six spots in the West to ensure they don’t fall victim to a potentially bad one or two games.
Breaking things down in the West, the Lakers, Suns, Jazz and Nuggets all feel like locks to go in the top six. Golden State could easily join that group with a healthy Klay Thompson. Dallas is still a playoff team we’d put ahead of Portland, and the LA Clippers are an enigma without Kawhi Leonard.
That’s seven teams. Portland would have to leapfrog two in order to avoid the play-in tournament, and we’re not quite sure there’s enough defensive trust in this group to put them on that level.
Is this Dame’s last year or Ben Simmons’ first in Portland?
Damian Lillard is a throwback, a guy who values longevity and loyalty more than most superstars. He’d rather ask for changes directly to ownership than to request a trade. The way the Blazers have been handled lately makes it hard to say that as a certainty.
If this is the end of the line, expect a full gutting of this team. A new executive in charge to oversee a massive rebuild. McCollum, Nurkic, Covington and the like would all be gone. It’s not a deal that likely takes place mid-season, as the Blazers will win enough games to stay in the playoff hunt.
There’s always the potential of management preempting that conversation but making a mid-year shakeup for disgruntled Philadelphia 76ers star Ben Simmons. While it’s no guarantee that Simmons’ arrival would convince Dame to stay, it would give Lillard his best co-star to date and the Blazers a pathway to survive no matter what Dame decides.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Head coach: Chris Finch, 1st full year (16-25 overall)
2020-21 Record: 23-49
Vegas Line: 34.5 wins
Our Projection: 40-42, 8th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 9th
Def. Rating: 23rd
The Timberwolves started the season 7-24 under Ryan Saunders and with an injury-riddled regime. Midway through the year, they dismissed Saunders and hired external candidate Chris Finch, widely considered an excellent offensive tactician. Finch led the team to finish the year 16-25, essentially on pace for a 32-win season. With internal development from Anthony Edwards and (hopefully) health of two stars in Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell, the Timberwolves could be this year’s sleeper team to make a playoff push.
How good is a team with a healthy KAT, Edwards and Russell?
In the 24 games that all three Timberwolves talents played in, Minnesota went 13-9. That alone is reason to expect the T-Wolves to be our surprise team that ascends up the West and wins 40 games. Sure, an unintended consequence of their late-season surge was that it cost them a 2021 lottery pick (which easily could have been one of Jonathan Kuminga or Davion Mitchell. But with an offensive savant in Chris Finch roaming the sidelines, we find it hard to bet against this core unit.
Of course, another part of the puzzle is the pieces that fill in the gaps. Patrick Beverley was a great role player acquisition with his pugnacious defense and irrational confidence. Jaden McDaniels and Jarred Vanderbilt are emerging energy role players in the frontcourt, and Malik Beasley provides another scoring punch and impressive floor spacing.
We’re really high on the Timberwolves this year, and we’re hoping the rest of the league gets to see just how freaking good Karl-Anthony Towns is.
Do the Wolves try to make a push for Ben Simmons?
The unique front office drama of September has one shadow lurking: the allure of a Ben Simmons deal and the reluctance of the old regime to make the move. Simmons is the most available superstar in the league, and the Wolves offer an environment that suits him: a stretch-5 in Towns, an offensive genius at coach and a fair amount of shooting.
The question is whether the Wolves will want to give up one of Edwards or Russell to make it work. Edwards should be untouchable, a gem of a human being who has as much raw potential as Simmons while being five years younger. Russell, meanwhile, is the best friend of resident superstar Towns and is a better off-ball fit next to the other two options.
We’d love to see Simmons in Minnesota for Ben, but not necessarily for the Wolves. Part of that is our abounding optimism about what they currently have — we aren’t convinced the team needs Simmons to take the next step.
Does Anthony Edwards take another step forward?
Our prognostication, once again, is positive. Edwards was our top guy in 2020’s draft class and a special player. The areas he fell short as a rookie — shot selection being jumper-heavy and some poor help defensive moments — are all correctable, and have already shown improvement through the preseason.
Edwards is too naturally talented to fail, and far too likable for his teammates not to bring along. He’s our pick for Most Improved Player, and a guy who could easily average 25 points a game while flashing dominant on-ball defense. He could also be top-ten in steals this year, one of those quieter predictions that would make the rest of his game pop.
By the end of the season, there will be at least two superstars in Minneapolis.
Between McDaniels and Vanderbilt, who emerges as the best option?
One of these two need to be good for the Wolves to make the playoffs. McDaniels showed real promise as a rookie, averaging nearly 7 and 4 in 23 minutes a night. He shot the ball, was super productive defensively and moved into the starting lineup during their late-season surge.
Vanderbilt, on the other hand, is more of a hybrid 4 and 5, a big-time energy rebounder with far less offensive output but the right amount of glass-cleaning that helps them play in transition. When playing alongside Edwards and DAR, that can be a pretty valuable trait. But the Wolves were a mere 1-8 when Vanderbilt played more than 24 minutes. He’s the clear backup in this situation.
McDaniels is the clear choice between the two, but not someone we’re entirely confident in just yet. We need to see how the shooting continues to progress (the most valuable offensive skill he brings to the table) and whether he can improve his physicality for playoff basketball.
Do we like the depth on this Timberwolves roster?
Pretty clearly, the starting unit of Russell-Edwards-Beasley-McDaniels-Towns is strong on its own merits. Vanderbilt is an acceptable role player, and Beverley will be solid off the bench. Both are non-scorers, but with as much offensive talent as the Wolves have, they’ll stagger their rotations to ensure one of their Big Three stay on the floor at all times.
Two players we’re watching this year could help swing the dynamic in their favor. First is Naz Reid, an impressive stretch-5 who is the perfect modern backup big man and has turned himself into an integral piece for this roster. Reid shot 35% from deep last year and allows for continuity offensively when KAT is out.
We’re also big fans of Leandro Bolmaro. He wasn’t high on our draft boards in 2020, but positive developments on his jump shot have turned him into a really fascinating piece. He can run that Tomas Satoransky, Swiss Army Knife role on offense while being a competitive, important piece on defense. Josh Okogie is there, too. This isn’t a team devoid of depth, and it will take health and strong rotation management from Finch to make sure they don’t stall out at any point. But the depth isn’t poor enough to be a reason not to trust these Wolves.
Denver Nuggets
Head coach: Mike Malone, 8th year (266-207 overall)
2020-21 Record: 47-25
Vegas Line: 47.5 wins
Our Projection: 51-31, 4th in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 2nd
Def. Rating: 16th
The reigning MVP. An elite shooting 21-year-old who is 6’10”. An athletic, veteran frontcourt defender who doesn’t hurt you on offense. A lead guard who averaged 24 points and 5 assists per game while shooting 45% from 3 over his final 26 games.
The Nuggets core four is as good as any group in the league. For that reason, they’re a legitimate NBA championship contender. The health of their scoring-minded point guard will factor into whether that leap happens this year. But the window is widely open.
Lost in the shuffle is the fact Tim Connelly has done an amazing job drafting and rounding out this roster. Injury fill-in Austin Rivers is a great get while Jamal Murray is out. Will Barton, PJ Dozier and Monte Morris are all above-average players in their role. The signings of Jeff Green and JaMychal Green give them veteran versatility, shot-making and gritty defense in their front line. The Nuggets are stacked, and if they can get healthy in April are a dark horse title contender. You heard it here first.
When does Murray return and how does he look?
We’re past the days of worrying whether a player can recover the same level of athleticism or impact after an ACL tear. Modern surgery has progressed to the point where recoveries are fairly commonplace.
What has been apparent is that many guys struggle to regain their confidence and trust in their knee the first several months after returning to the court. Murray hasn’t built his success based on explosion or athleticism, so this may not hamper his return as much as others, but it could be there in the back of his mind. Adam Mares and I spoke in-depth about this topic on our podcast last week:
The timing of Murray’s return matters in the context of getting his trust in his body to sync with the postseason. There’s no way to know how long that takes, or whether we can tangibly tell Murray is still hesitant in some ways. In order to make sure this isn’t a lost season, the Nuggets will need Jamal to be at full strength for the postseason. The West is likely too loaded to advance without the version of him we saw in the bubble and last season.
Does Porter add some advanced shot creation in Murray’s absence?
The newest max player in Denver, Michael Porter Jr. is a prolific shot-maker. By playing alongside MVP Nikola Jokic, most of those come of the assisted variety. Two-thirds of his jump shots were of the catch-and-shoot variety last year, and 80% of his makes were assisted.
Murray’s time on the shelf provides an opportunity for others to step up in ways they otherwise would not. Once Murray is back, business as usual resumes, and there are very few creation touches to be had with he and Jokic in the fold. Porter, an elite play finisher, has untapped potential to create for others and himself off the bounce.
What we’re watching for from MPJ isn’t just his shooting splits, but whether there are flashes of playmaking off the dribble that translate to a longer leash and more usage in those areas. Hey, there’s no better time to experiment than early in the season.
Bones Hyland or Monte Morris: Who do the Nuggets trust most?
The Nugs had questionable depth behind Murray a year ago, exposed during the postseason. Austin Rivers filled in admirably, and he’ll get a crack at using his scoring prowess to stay in the rotation. Steady hand Monte Morris, an improving scorer each year, never beats himself and provides too much value to be squeezed from the rotation entirely.
Then there’s Bones Hyland, the rookie from VCU who set the preseason and Summer League on fire with his sharpshooting ways, insane confidence and ready-to-go scoring arsenal. If Hyland forces his way into the rotation, it’s a good problem to have. But it’s still a challenge to navigate for Malone, as the Nuggets have plenty of good guys in the backcourt.
At least one will get squeezed upon Murray’s return. The question is whether they both eat into each other’s roles, or if there’s room for Malone to play smaller more frequently, instead cutting into Will Barton’s minutes. To get to that point, both would need to play well and show themselves worthy of minutes.
Will PJ Dozier emerge as a rotation-caliber wing?
Reports out of the Nuggets training camp have been incredibly positive about Dozier. That’s important for the team, as he is the lone defensive stopper available on the wings. Dozier isn’t a high-usage performer (he only scored in double-figures twelve times despite playing 20+ minutes on 30 occasions) but he’s solid in all the right ways. If the jump shot falls, it will be hard to justify taking him out of the rotation in the playoffs.
The Nuggets need his defense, but his playmaking is what’s impressive. There are enough scorers here, particularly with the second unit (Barton, Bones, Jeff Green) to put the ball in his hands a bit more and let him play. Dozier had four games with 5+ assists a year ago. If that trend continues, he’ll sneak his way into being considered one of the more impactful role players across the league.
Does the defense climb into top ten territory?
Because Nikola Jokic isn’t a premier shot blocker or the most athletic rim protector of all time, there’s this perception that he can’t be the anchor of a strong defense. Last year, Jokic evolved into a sturdy leader of the Nuggets on that end, pushing Denver to 12th overall in defensive rating. It’s hard to know whether that number is an aberration, a byproduct of length at other positions or true, continuous improvement from the Joker.
We anticipate a half-step backwards this year, closer to league average as a defense. That’s less to do with Jokic and more about the perimeter defenders on this roster. Gone is assistant coach Wes Unseld Jr., the architect of their schemes and one of the better teachers across the league. Things will be different.
The Nuggets will lean into their offense and be just fine. In the event they continue to impress on the defensive end, the credit belongs with Jokic.
Utah Jazz
Head coach: Quin Snyder, 9th year (323-231 overall)
2020-21 Record: 52-20
Vegas Line: 51.5 wins
Our Projection: 57-25, 2nd in Western Conference
Off. Rating: 4th
Def. Rating: 1st
No, you’re not reading that wrong. The Utah Jazz will play ten more games than last year and have their Vegas win total set as one win below where they were. All the key pieces from last year’s team are back and healthy, plus solid additions of veteran backups like Rudy Gay and Hassan Whiteside will help their depth. The Jazz are perennially slept on… at least in the regular season.
Now, all that matters is whether they can finally get through to the Western Conference Finals and even the NBA Finals. If Donovan Mitchell takes another step forward as a bonafide shot creator, the Jazz can’t possibly field a more cohesive, well-rounded unit in the future. Their window is now.
Can Mike Conley stay healthy?
When the Utah Jazz made an aggressive move to get Mike Conley from Memphis a few years ago, they envisioned a few years of an All-Star point guard before he gets out of his prime, then overpaying him while they hand the playmaking reigns off to another player.
We’re close to the handoff point, but Conley has given very little in Utah due to injuries. Mike just turned 34 and has played a combined 98 games over the last two seasons. He’s been effective; 15.3 points and 5.2 assists per game on 39.6% 3-point shooting. But Conley hasn’t been available when the Jazz need him, and he makes far too much money to be easily replaced.
Conley has three more years in Utah under his current deal, and he’ll be 36 when it’s up if he makes it all the way through. With that much money, this could be the last season where Conley has the ability to impact the Jazz in a super positive way.
Is Joe Ingles tenure in Utah coming to a close?
The Jazz are pretty far over the cap, and they will stay there in the next few years. That isn’t a bad thing for a title contender, but it places a challenge in front of the front office if they decide Ingles isn’t a guy they want to re-sign to a deal once he’s a free agent in July. Ingles recently turned 34, and might be looking to cash in on one more payday. If the Jazz decide they don’t want to match those offers and he walks, they’ll have very little way of replacing that value, as they’ll still be over the cap and limited to the Taxpayer MLE.
Alternatively, the Jazz could look to move Ingles now, shopping his expiring deal for a veteran elsewhere who is signed long-term and still keeps their title window open. Ingles makes $14 million this year, so he isn’t on a terribly expensive deal that makes him hard to flip. If the Jazz are aware that he isn’t the guy they want to extend a long-term offer to, it might be best to flip him before he could walk.
We don’t think Ingles is going to get dealt, and will stay with Utah beyond next year on a modest deal.
Who is to blame for Rudy Gobert’s struggles in the postseason defensively?
The three-time Defensive Player of the Year is an elite rim protector. The Jazz have constructed a defense around Gobert’s top skill, particularly centered on keeping him close to the rim as much as possible. It’s valid on the most basic levels of logic: put someone who is great at the rim close to it. They’ve run Drop coverage almost religiously.
A conclusion that flowed from there: Rudy isn’t able to switch onto smaller guys or defend in isolation. But the positive nature of Drop coverage in Utah doesn’t mean the inverse is true. Unfortunately for the Jazz, their first experiments into switching did not go very well against the Los Angeles Clippers, a spread-out offense that specifically worked to put Rudy in no-win situations. He was exposed by being asked to simultaneously guard strong corner 3-point shooters and defend the rim, without much help for rotations from behind. He was moved to the perimeter to guard those shooters, then received little to no help from behind, as the Jazz roster is specifically designed to not worry about featuring plus rim protectors — that’s because they have Rudy!
We’ll continue to see a ton of Drop coverage throughout the regular season as Utah’s bread and butter. It’s far easier than tipping their hand before the playoffs or fixing something that helped them win 52 games last year. The formula works, and Rudy will continually make the rest of his teammates look better.
Gobert does not deserve much, if any, of the blame for their performance against the Clippers. The teammates around him aren’t in a position to be successful defensively when Gobert is pulled from the hoop. The scheme didn’t quite go far enough to rotate around Rudy, and a more proactive approach to switching and keeping him home might be the long road towards thwarting a similar attack in the postseason.
Is Donovan Mitchell going to get the recognition he deserves?
Over the last two postseasons, Spida has been a man on a mission. He’s averaged 33.9 points, shot 46.4% from 3 on an INSANE 10.5 attempts per game and takes 7.9 free throws per game. He’s the perfect blend between scoring, shooting, attacking and distributing (5.2 assists per game).
The Jazz offense is based on balance and extra passes. Mitchell steps up to embrace being the leader in the playoffs when those same tactics become a bit limited. But that doesn’t mean Mitchell won’t strike up a larger regular season role. Last year, Mitchell averaged 28.8 points, 5.3 assists and shot 38.2% from 3 over his final 26 games of the regular season. That’s… not a big change from his postseason numbers. How rare is that production? Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard couldn’t average 25 and 5 for a season while shooting 38% from 3. Mitchell did over the whole season.
Mitchell is ready to receive that recognition. He definitely deserves votes for All-NBA, exacerbated by his team’s success. The Jazz were 10-6 in their final 16 regular season games without Mitchell; they were 40-16 prior to that point. This should be another 50-win season for the Jazz — that doesn’t mean Mitchell needs to fly under the radar as a lethal offensive threat once again.
Does their revamped bench help them more in the postseason?
Big shout out to the Jazz for making every right move this summer to keep themselves at the front of the Western Conference. The signing of Rudy Gay gives them the perfect 4-man within their system, and even *whispers* a potential small-ball 5. Gay is historically underrated, and at 35 is ready to play a role on a contending team for the first time. Hassan Whiteside is great depth and an insurance policy behind Gobert; he isn’t great but for a few minutes a night should be helpful.
Even the young additions are solid. Eric Paschall is the right type of reclamation project, and I’ve long thought a Villanova guy would pop in Quin Snyder’s system. Trent Forrest and Udoka Azubuike both looked solid during the Summer League and preseason. There’s no other way to say this than to put it bluntly: Jared Butler at 40th is an f’n steal. He’s a lottery talent that gives them additional guard depth next to Jordan Clarkson.
The Jazz are deep, experienced, have continuity and some fresh blood to plug into the rotation. They can withstand an injury, impose their style and have identity throughout. The Gay signing, in particular, gives them increased versatility for the playoffs when they can no longer impose their identity onto an opponent. It’s been a fantastic summer for the Jazz.