6 Underrated Mid-Major Prospects: Part One
Despite not getting much attention during the last draft cycle, there are a few mid-major prospects who could burst onto the scene in 2024
Don’t wait until March to get a feel for the best mid-major players in the land. Let’s start now, with a focus on some players who have caught Coach Spins’ eye in some regard without moving up to the high-major level in college hoops.
We all know that the transfer portal has drastically changed how mid-major prospect evaluation works. Many of the highest-touted mid-major players move up to the high-major ranks for at least a season before going pro, cashing in on the opportunity to make more NIL money while increasing their draft stock in the spotlight. As a result, former high-major players end up moving down, meaning there are dozens of names already on scouting radars now playing in those low-to-mid-major ranks.
Put all that together and it’s much more difficult to nail down the guys who are next to breakout. The guys I’m featuring today are those who have decided to either stay at the school they were at last year or transfer to a non-power conference school. None of them are guards (the easiest statistical players to identify in those ranks) and only one of them is a rising senior — giving plenty of time between a potential 2024 breakout and when they’ll actually declare for the draft.
These are my top bets to break out this season and become, at the very least, fringe NBA prospects by the end of the 2024 draft cycle. Today we have part one of the series, featuring the first three prospects who have really caught my eye.
It’s worth noting that Weber State prospect Dillon Jones will receive his own article and will therefore not be included in this breakdown. To read and see our full dissection of Jones’ pro prospects, please check back this Fall.
Malevy Leons - F, Bradley
When Bradley is cooking, look no further than their Dutch Oven.
All stinky jokes aside, head coach Brian Wardle has gotten a ton of mileage out of two Dutch-born players in their frontcourt in Reink Mast and Malevy Leons. Leons, a 6’9” and fluid-moving 4-man, is one of the most dominating defenders in college basketball. He’s also a career 36.6% shooter from deep and an adequate passer with a positive assist-to-turnover ratio across two years with the Braves.
Leons is a very good on-ball defender, but he is among the most reliable help defenders in all of college basketball. He rotates on time and is always there at the bucket when you need him to be. His 50 blocks last season is a high number for a guy who doesn’t play the 5 for more than short stretches.
Offensively, Leons has a slower shot that he’ll need to speed up a bit. His head kind of twitches to the left while he shoots (weird but… if it goes in, whatever) and he needs space to load up, but the release point is quite high. Off the bounce, he’s got some touch near the rim but is thin, high-waisted, only an adequate dribbler, and not an absurd athlete. His upside to become a rim pressure maven is quite low.
Leons checks so many statistical boxes as well. The list of prospects to finish a season with a 5% BLK rate, 3% STL rate, a BPM over 6, and over 25 made 3-pointers is below, and it’s a very fascinating list of two-way role players:
The younger players on this list (Eason, Okeke, Singleton) all were drafted in the first round, while others like Covington and Clark have played themselves into NBA careers as older prospects. Leons has the farthest way to go on offense to make an impact other than stretching the floor, but his overlap with some of the better swing-forwards on the defensive end is notable.
He’s already 23, so it seems like Leons would be more in the Covington and Clark mold of UDFA who overachieve. But I’m in for that happening. Unless he undergoes a major offensive breakout, he’ll be one of the first calls I’d make next year to be a Summer League and Exhibit 10 signing.
Jonathan Beagle - P, Albany
I first saw Beagle play in the AAU circuit, where he was teammates with JJ Starling for the City Rocks program. Beagle is big and imposing, and decently mobile in spurts. I thought he’d be a mid-major post player at the least, and was receiving interest from Rick Pitino at Iona, Jeff Capel at Pittsburgh, and a few other schools.
Beagle is now at Albany playing for Dwayne Killings, the former Marquette assistant. Beagle had a strong freshman season last year, tested the waters in the portal, then opted to return to the Great Danes for a second season in the America East. Beagle was named the conference’s Rookie of the Year last year, averaging 12.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. He can really pass for a big man, and while he’s only 6’9” and has always viewed himself as a stretch-4, his best long-term mold on the defensive end is as an interior presence.
The defensive end is where Beagle doesn’t necessarily impress… right now. He only blocks 0.4 shots per game, and last year Albany was one of the worst defensive teams in the entire country, giving up 75.2 PPG and allowing opponents to make 65.8% of their rim attempts last year — 360th out of 364 teams in Division I. Beagle needs to wear that on his sleeve if he wants to become a legitimate NBA prospect or transfer up to the high-major levels of hoops.
Still, there’s no denying his offensive talent. In the post, Beagle looks like a dog chasing his own tail, spinning around incessantly waiting for the right angle to get his hooks hot off. He’s got incredibly polished footwork, but the feel as a passer and perimeter player sets him apart from other post-bound bigs. He can rebound and run, create for others, and is just a smart, fun player.
As his freshman season went on with the Great Danes, Beagle showed that he’s got that dawg in him (yes, we’ve got pup puns abound). His role grew, and the trust from Killings and the Albany staff in him grew. Frankly, I don’t think their staff thought he’d be just as good as he was and kept him on a leash early in the season. This year, with more planning to play around Beagle and let his unique offensive game take center stage, we could be in line for a massive statistical leap. Keep an eye on him; I wouldn’t expect Beagle to become an overnight prospect, but he’s bound to jump out of the kennel and into the high-major ranks at some point in his career.
Nigel Burris - F, Utah State
Burris is transferring from Idaho to Utah State for his sophomore season, and is the prized incomer for new Aggies head coach Danny Sprinkle. I always find it to be a major compliment when a coach you’ve played against gets you to transfer there. Last year when Sprinkle was at Montana State, he went up against Burris, so without a doubt, he knows what type of impactful 4-man he’s getting. Idaho actually got the best of the conference champs during one of their meetings this year. Hey… if you can’t beat ‘em, recruit ‘em!
Burris is the prized transfer for Sprinkle this offseason in a class that features several former high-major players (Maryland guard transfer Ian Martinez, USC grad transfer Max Agbonkpolo, and Washington big man Jackson Grant). What Sprinkle does well is take self-aware players and allow them to succeed in their role. Top to bottom, Burris screams this type of player to me. His NBA upside isn’t about him being a great scorer and talent, but a guy who can prove pre-draft that he’s already a great role player.
His shot is a little sharp mechanically but he looks comfortable taking them and being a face-up forward. He’s thick and strong enough to hold his own against bigger bodies. He’s an exceptionally smart cutter, and while he doesn’t generate a ton of rim pressure off the bounce, he’s really functional in what the modern NBA looks for in their 4s: floor-spacing, competitive defense, and smart connective play.
The Big Sky Rookie of the Year at Idaho averaged 8.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 0.5 assists in 24 minutes a night, but it was his efficiency across the floor that stood out. Burris finished the year with shooting splits of 53/45/87, which is terrific for a 6’7”, 225-pound wing. He was one of 14 freshmen last year with an eFG% over 60% in the Barttorvik database, and one of only three freshmen to reach that mark while taking at least 40 3-point attempts. Synergy stats indicate he was 39-84 (46.4%) on catch-and-shoot jumpers and 44-64 (68.8%) at the rim, both of which are outstanding numbers.
The Big Sky had some pretty impressive players last season who are returning to college hoops in 2024: Dillon Jones, Dalton Knecht (Tennessee), Isaac Jones (Washington State), RaeQuan Battle (West Virginia), and Steele Venters (Gonzaga). Burris belongs in that group. On defense, he’s one of the more versatile forwards in low-major/ mid-major basketball. He can switch onto guards, moves his feet well in space, and is a strong help defender. He’ll need to commit to playing lower through screens (that’s an area he appeared to struggle as a freshman) but there’s a ton of potential.
Burris has also stated a desire to get into scouting once his career ends; I’d go out on a limb and say that his scouting career won’t start until years and years from now. He’s got plenty of time to focus on his playing career first. I’m expecting big things this year at Utah State.