8 Players who Take the Next Step in 2022

Which players are due to outperform their current perception across the league? We've got a list of a few

Development is never linear. Incremental growth is possible, but it doesn’t always stay incremental. There are peaks and valleys, plateaus and sharp spikes in every young player’s career. Overreacting to the both the highs and the lows is commonplace during a 24-hour media cycle driven around creating content: every performance gets blown out of proportion.

The key to team-building and success is to accurately be able to anticipate when the sharp spikes are about to occur. Sometimes there are strong indicators, such as added physique, a strong finish to the prior season or mechanical tweaks to their shooting form. Other times, a breakout campaign is pretty simple: the opportunity for minutes is squarely theirs for the taking.

Eight players stand out to us as those primed to take major steps forward with their game during the 2021-22 season. Some will take jumps from starter to All-Star potential, while others simply go from inconsistent minutes to a dependable role. Neither is to be looked at as lesser than another; we’re only here to celebrate plausible growth.

Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers

About a year ago, we wrote on Garland in an extended piece about his development. There were two parts to the detailed write-up: that Garland has all the traits needed to be a star point guard, and that he’ll struggle to play like a star so long as Cleveland surrounds him with non-shooters and other ball-dominant guards.

Like most undersized guards, Garland struggled initially with his adjustment to the NBA. A low finisher without elite vertical pop, Garland didn’t suffer from a ton of blocked shots (only 38 his rookie campaign) because he tried to contort his shot attempts around the bigs in the lane. There’s a lack of confidence that goes with that, and a lack of success that follows: Darius shot 43.1% at the rim, worst in the NBA for all who shot 130 attempts in the zone.

What Garland has always featured is a smooth floater that he can get to at any time. As a rookie, the floater was a bail-out to score in the lane without getting to the rim. As he’s moved forward and gotten stronger, the threat of the floater has opened up a little more activity at the hoop. He got up to 49.5% at the rim — still below-average but a strong improvement.

The patience and development of Garland within the pick-and-roll took a large step last year and was evident even early in the season:

Even against ice coverage, Garland was able to get to his floater or use the added strength to create space:

The appeal of Garland pairing with rookie Evan Mobley in the pick-and-roll is tantalizing. Long-term, this is what will make Garland pop as a winner and not with statistical output: a dominant PNR partner who can shoot, pass on the short roll or finish.

Last season, Garland took the leap as a 3-point shooter and make 39.5% of his treys. We expect that dribble jumper to be the lethal part of his arsenal that commands many pick-and-roll attempts this season.

The Cavs are a very interesting team (as friend Jackson Frank brought up on our podcast last week) this season for how they balance the development of their multiple young guns and manufacture spacing. If they can at least get some movement PNRs or find ways to alter lineups so Garland gets shooting around him, there’s a good chance he takes a leap into above-average point guard territory.

Nikiel Alexander-Walker, New Orleans Pelicans

Through four games (without Zion Williamson), Nikiel Alexander-Walker has put up astronomical numbers: 17.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.0 steals and 30.6% shooting from 3 on NINE attempts per game. The breakout campaign we all expected from another member of the 2019 draft class is upon us.

NAW is incredibly toolsy; long-armed and crafty, he’s able to create a bit off the bounce while being a really good off-ball player. His cuts are always well-timed and intelligent, he relocates on the perimeter effectively and he’s a capable shooter.

A really good finisher with his right hand, Alexander-Walker needs to find ways to get back to his right more often. What’s caught our eye thus far have been a few nice reads on a middle screening action to pop back to the wing on the right side, getting himself free and reading his defender. The command of Willie Green’s new offense is already there, and he’s learning how to make plays in an effective fashion:

The production and volume certainly won’t continue for NAW. Half his games have been against the Minnesota Timberwolves (a fairly porous defense) and Zion Williamson’s return will relegate everyone to off-ball duty more often. That’s why we’re focusing on how impactful NAW has been in an off-ball role to establish him as a long-term rotation member. The good news: he’s earned Green’s trust enough to be a starter and 30 minute-per-game guy while Zion is out.

Jordan Nwora, Milwaukee Bucks

A tall, movement-based shot-maker, Nwora is the perfect fit in Milwaukee’s offensive system. Their 5-out schemes provide many opportunities for movement triples, rely on having multiple shooting options on the wings and keep the game simple for young players so they don’t have to slow down their impact.

Nwora was a rookie on a championship team last year, buried on the depth chart and rightfully so. The loss of a bigger wing like PJ Tucker opened up room for a guy like Nwora to push his way into the rotation. With some confidence built from Summer League and the preseason, he seemed like the obvious option to fill some of those minutes at the 3 and 4 spots for the Bucks’ second unit.

What’s impressed thus far is his ability to make great decisions when attacking closeouts. Shooting threats who are younger often take a while to adjust to NBA decision-making and are a little loose with their shot selection. Nwora makes the right play frequently. From a split-legged floater to a beautiful relocation after getting run off the line, that intelligence should only increase the trust Milwaukee’s coaching staff has in him:

Through four games, Nwora is averaging 10.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.3 blocks in 24 minutes per game. The shot hasn’t been the most consistent, but the shooting numbers raising will naturally occur. We love how good Nwora always is on the glass: he was an expert rebounder at Louisville and does the little things Mike Budenholzer will love. If you’re long, rebound and shoot, the Bucks always find a role for you.

Precious Achiuwa, Toronto Raptors

An enigmatic loose cannon, Achiuwa feels a bit like Jon Moxley in All Elite Wrestling: the gloves are off, and the guy can just be himself.

Toronto’s helter-skelter, high-pressure defense suits Achiuwa, a massive athlete who has gotten away with playing the 5. Whether he’s switching or blitzing guys on the perimeter, letting defense turn into offense and play in the open floor maximizes what Achiuwa can do.

Achiuwa is thriving. The Raptors have more points than any NBA team in transition. For a player who still struggles with shot selection and scoring in the half-court, the ability to play in the open floor at all times has been of great value to Achiuwa. He’s a livewire and has some incredibly fun flashes:

Getting Achiuwa to feel comfortable in the half-court will take a lot more time. He needs reps and guidance, both of which the Raptors can provide with their thin frontcourt rotation and the Pascal Siakam injury. Getting to play in a system that values his defensive presence and pressure will keep the reps in transition, where he pops the most. A reunion with fellow Nigerian Masai Ujiri has done wonders for his career.