A Barttorvik Blast from the Past
Evaluating Freshmen statistical profiles from the past to better predict the pro success of the current diaper dandies
This past draft cycle, we really began to dive into Barttorvik as a database for statistical queries. Particularly, we played around with different queries to serve as indicators for potential success, judging their accuracy based off trends we’ve noticed from prior draft prospects and where they test well.
The entire concept is stolen from the work done by Shawn Coleman, who noticed what the Memphis Grizzlies were doing to use statistical indicators to predict who their draft targets might be. Since then, we’ve played around not just with those filters, but with some of our own.
Barttorvik uses one default metric to sort through their prospects: PORPAGATU!
We had to do some digging to figure out what this is or means, and in essence, it’s an overall efficiency metric that tries to account for balancing the scales between low-usage and high-usage players.
How legitimate is the PORPAGATU! metric in determining future NBA impact? We played with the data from the last few years to try and determine how, or if, we can determine a minimum threshold to reach for one-and-done candidates to see if they provide a return on their investment.
2022
The first thing that catches our eye in looking at the Barttorvik numbers from last year: Paolo Banchero and Ben Mathurin are the top two and have been the two most impactful rookies in the NBA. Mathurin, listed here as a freshman, was actually a sophomore — an error on the BT site. It’s a good addition, though, to get a feel for where he stacks up.
Only eight one-and-done first-round picks showed up in the top 30; several on this list decided to come back to school, while others were not freshmen (c’mon, Barttorvik) and even more were low-major guys who became valued transfers.
Other freshmen drafted outside the top 30:
Blake Wesley (46th)
Jeremy Sochan (48th)
Moussa Diabate (49th)
JD Davison (64th)
Caleb Houstan (68th)
Max Christie & Patrick Baldwin Jr. (outside top 100)