A Better Understanding: Jabari Smith
Why Smith projects more as a shooting big than a primary option... and that's okay
Number one. The best, the cream of the crop. To secure such a spot within your draft class is to stand above your peers in a way that shows elite translation to the NBA game. With where the league is trending, shooting the ball incredibly well has become paramount in projecting a scorer.
Over the last month, Jabari Smith has emerged as a threat to be the top pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. The current Auburn forward has everything upon first glance. A chiseled 6’10” body with long arms and shoulders that make him stand out like General Grievous from Star Wars. A silky smooth jumper with 3-point range, flashes of isolation shot-making and a rare one-dribble pull-up for someone his size. He looks fluid in the open floor, has some terrorizing flashes on defense and the jump shot is falling at a transcendent rate through twelve games.
But what really goes into being the best player in a draft class and the most attractive asset on the market? There’s a comparative element: in reality, you just have to be better than everyone else. There’s also an idealistic element. An elite skill in one specific area, no matter how good, is not typically indicative of being worthy of the label as best overall prospect. We have trouble anointing Jabari the top prospect in this class as a result.
In drafting a top pick, there’s a need for a well-rounded offensive arsenal, the upside to turn into an offensive alpha for the franchise and a high enough floor that their impact won’t be eradicated by one or two defensive adjustments. Teams draft for the NBA Playoffs… at least for postseason success once the player and his team are ready for the big stage.
Jump shooters who don’t put any pressure on the rim are rarely seen as elite draft targets at the very top. Taking away their game in the NBA Playoffs isn’t overly challenging, and often their impact is tied directly to the rest of the team’s ability to create shots for them. Snipers can provide fantastic value in the late lottery or middle of the first round, but are not often drafted earlier without a high-ceiling in another area.
To us, Jabari is a fundamentally misunderstood prospect. Statistical models about his play-style reinforce some warts we’ve seen in his game, particularly in the half-court, and show his overall impact being more akin to that of a Kristaps Porzingis than that of a Luka Doncic.
Brimming with potential in other areas, we simply have two requests before vaulting Jabari into the top pick conversation. First, let’s give him more time for the shooting sample to develop. If he remains this elite through the entire year, he will prove himself so transcendent a jump shooter that concerns about the rest of the game are less likely to hinder his offensive impact. Second, we want to see some changes to his half-court game that are more fitting of an offensive focal point, the type that is desired by a franchise that picks number one overall.
The first indicator for us that Smith might be miscast as the top option in the NBA: seeing someone 6’10” struggle to convert inside the 3-point line against mid-to-low major competition. Smith is solid at the rim (a respectable 56%) but he rarely gets there, instead settling for jumpers as a heavy part of his arsenal. Whether by choice or athletic necessity, the fact of the matter is that Jabari is reliant on that jumper.
Smith has a few habits we noticed as a driver that we generally are concerned about, and they indicate that his shot distribution isn’t purely by choice. Despite insanely long arms and massive strides, Smith’s first bounce off the catch tends to be right by his side, not out in front of him. It’s a fixable trait, but one that currently handicaps his ability to create separation from his man. As a result, he has become very jumper-heavy.
The issue is less that Smith is a bad finisher and more that he doesn’t get to the hoop enough. His two-point percentage (44.6%) is a direct reflection of the shots he takes. Again, the first step is a hindrance right now, but his natural tools give him every ability to fix it and turn his long strides into a strength.
More concerning to us is the lack of separation Smith creates when he uses more than one bounce. Improving how he operates off the catch gives him an advantage in some quick-decision situations. But Smith likes to go one-on-one and is utilized in isolations a fair amount at Auburn. If he is going to be drafted in the top three, it’s safe to assume the team drafting him will want to deploy Smith in this way as well.
A long first step matters here, but slightly less than off the catch. Instead, the term space creation comes to the forefront. Jabari will need to be shifty off the dribble, have a deep bag of moves and, at the very least, find ways to put pressure on the rim so primary defenders don’t crowd him and anticipate the jumper. Thus far at Auburn, he is only 5-15 in isolations, with only one of his makes coming within 18 feet.
Part of the reason for that: Smith struggles to accelerate off the bounce against a set defense in ways that are very limiting to his long-term offensive game.
Like Evan Mobley, a rookie for the Cleveland Cavaliers who is similarly long-limbed and skilled for a big, Smith is very reliant on turnaround jumpers and spin moves to create space to get his shot off. The result: a steady diet of mid-ranges as opposed to rim attempts.
The flashes Smith shows at making some of these tough attempts is very high-level. His one-dribble pull-up is consistent and he’s been great behind the arc off the bounce. For those reasons, Smith is still a top-five guy on our board and pretty firmly in that territory. Such traits are rare: Jabari is on pace to be the first freshman in NCAA history to shoot 45% from 3, make 75 triples and record seven rebounds per game.
Philosophically, when we’re drafting in the top parts of the draft (especially number one overall) we want someone who forces defenses to collapse. Smith is an incredibly high-level shooter, but we currently see some limitations to his driving ability that makes us worry he won’t draw multiple defenders and create easy looks for his teammates. He’s more of a play finisher than a shot creator, and might resemble more of a high-level stretch shooter (like Kristaps Porzingis) than a number-one option (like Tracy McGrady, whom Smith is frequently compared to).
In addition to the film, almost all of his statistical comparisons come back resembling shooting specialists more than face-up attackers. The combination of poor interior finishing and high-level 3-point shooting strongly mirrors the careers of some NBA role players, not top options.
We dug deeper than the simple two-point percentage. We wanted to compare two indicators that matter deeply in terms of offensive creation: free throw rate and 3-point rate. A high 3-point rate typically indicates off-ball play, as does a low free throw rate. Through his first 12 college games, Smith registered a free throw rate of 29.7% and a 3-point rate of 42.8%.
The 3-point rate is a positive for Smith, and many try to excuse his two-point percentage being so low due to the multitude of one-dribble pull-ups he’s taken just inside the arc. Jabari is only around average at the rim, shooting 56% in the half-court, and not getting there nearly enough.
The other rim metrics we see aren’t ones we trust when trying to break down his half-court game: transition finishing provides far too many breakaway opportunities to give a player like Smith some gimmies. NBA Scout Dom Samangy put out a shot profile on Smith which includes the entire arsenal of attempts. It is a little more alarming if you change his percentage within 8 feet to solely his half-court number of 56%.
Smith’s volume at Auburn is well-deserved. He can create his own shot off one dribble when utilized in the pick-and-pop. He’s 5-8 on pick & pop jumpers and 4-9 on dribble pull-ups when chased off the line. Those are both elite metrics, and he projects as an elite shooter. But Smith only has one attack on the rim after the pick-and-pop. To us, the movement and screen, which draws to defenders to the ball handler, help get him open for a shot. Scheme and teammates create space for him, not the other way around.
Thus far, the Tigers have expected Smith to be a guy they throw the ball to in isolations and he simply goes out and scores. The efficiency (0.85 PPP and 33.3% shooting in isolation) simply isn’t there. Shot selection has two factors to it:
Am I taking the best shot I can get here?
If I shoot, is it the best shot for our team in this situation?
Smith’s issues with number one are documented by the rim ability, but the issues with number two are based on feel. Frankly, Smith is out there to gun and doesn’t show off a ton of creation skills for his teammates. He has a belief that he can shoot over the top of oncoming defenders. He’s a great shooter and he knows it, but seems to think that fadeaway jumpers in the post area are the optimal shot for the Auburn Tigers:
The crazy part: Smith is good enough to draw hard doubles. At the college level, his raw shot-making is at a high enough level that it still commands traps. When those come, his SEC teammates are good enough to punish teams 4-on-3. Smith doesn’t need to make a brilliant cross-court pass, he just needs to not force up a baseline turnaround a la Jayson Tatum.
When he makes those passes, good things happen for his team:
Our beef isn’t really with Jabari: he’s a top-five prospect and a potentially revolutionary shooter. He’s so good in transition and in multiple forms as a shooter that he can be an incredible addition to a team’s playbook. We just think his draft profile has been misunderstood by the masses. He doesn’t have enough off-the-dribble prowess in the half-court to be a primary option in isolation or the playmaking chops to create for others as a PNR handler or consistent passer out of mismatches.
And that’s okay. Taking Smith in the top-three, or even first overall, is alright so long as that understanding is present. Right now, the off-the-dribble arsenal and lack of rim pressure give us a great deal of pause in placing Jabari ahead of a more well-rounded offensive creator like Paolo Banchero or a defensive whiz kid like Chet Holmgren.
Friend of The Box and One Jake Rosen eloquently summarized our thoughts on Jabari in comparison to the other two in this Twitter thread, walking the line between critiquing Smith’s flaws while acknowledging his posturing within the 2022 class:
Jabari belongs in this tier, but pumping the brakes on vaulting him above the competition feels inevitable when watching more than just the highlights. He needs to find ways to impact games through more than just shooting to warrant the top spot on our board.