Anthony Black: 2023 NBA Draft Scouting Report

Winning players with positional size and elite IQ always seem to hit in the NBA. So why isn't Black getting as much love in the top-5?

A year ago, I got my first head coaching job. As I tried to emulate some of the best bosses and mentors before me, one of my first orders of business once I hired a staff was to assign a summer reading book for all us coaches to learn from. The book I chose was Joshua Metcalf’s Win in the Dark, a story of slacklining and perseverence. The idea was to choose a tale that discussed the type of culture I wanted to cultivate: hard work taking place in practice/ lifts/ skills sessions, ignoring the bright lights or the allure of social media, and developing perseverence by continually doing.

If that is the culture and message I am drawn to, it’s no wonder why Anthony Black has been a person who has won me over. Continually, Black has taken the path less traveled. He went from unranked to top-25 nationall in a single year, played at public high schools, for an independent and grassroots AAU team, and has spent more time in the gym than in Instagram reels or making his own highlights.

The guy simply loves basketball, quietly and humbly goes about his business, and works every day to get better. I don’t doubt that other prospects and players are doing the same — but it’s the manner by which Black works in the dark that resonates.

The process has paid off. Black is a near-certain lock to be a lottery pick after one year at Arkansas. Despite an underwhelming season for the team and mundane statistical metrics, Black checks so many boxes that NBA teams look for. He aces the personality tests and competitive checks. He’s got real positional size, standing 6’7” with a reportedly near 7’0” wingspan. He’s insanely smart with high feel — on both ends.

The one trait missing for Black is a reliable jump shot. We’ll dive into his mechanics here and discuss what needs to change, which aspects I like and don’t like, and how likely it is that he turns into an average or above-average shooter.

After doing a full watch-through of his freshman season, I think I’m at the point where it doesn’t really matter. Black is still a winning bet to take really high in this draft class. He checks too many boxes and is, probably, the best perimeter defender I’ve scouted over the last few years.

All of that has to count for something, and with me, that counts for a lot. I’m dangerously close to having Black jump into my top-five — even with the possibility that he doesn’t get a jump shot nailed down.

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Offense

Bet on high-feel players. Anthony Black has such impressive playmaking chops that stand at the center of his offensive impact. His ability to get into the lane as an athlete helps him create advantages, but it’s his brain and skill level that sustain them.

In ball screens, Black’s feel is off the charts. The only better proactive decision-makers I’ve evaluated in the last few years are Cade Cunningham, Tyrese Haliburton, and maybe LaMelo Ball. Black is so quick at diagnosing the opening in the defense and making the pass to exploit it. Because he’s 6’7” with good burst, he can see and throw passes overtop the help defense.

I love the pace and varying speeds he plays with. He knows when to use his burst/ strength as a driver to pressure the rim and when to use his size to engage in hostage dribbles. That balance, as well as his craftiness to get back to his right hand so frequently, is impressive:

Of course, Black can legitimize his role as a passer by combining that with effective scoring. High-volume on-ball reps are rare these days for those who do not score at a high clip; his 14.7 points per 40 minutes are indeed a low mark. Black is best scoring out of ball screens that lead him to his right, where he can muscle his way to the bucket.

Black has the same craftiness as a scorer as he does while passing. He can drive really hard to the rim, and he initiates contact in ways that cannot be stopped. The kid is super strong and has excellent touch with his right. He can also engage in hostage dribbles or more patient moves at the point of attack, relying on floaters and craftily slow finishes while playing a cat-and-mouse game with the defense.

Black still needs to get better at going to his left. There were more turnover concerns I found when he’d be going that way, and smart teams could key into forcing him to his weak hand. In Drop coverage, Ant is good enough to snake and play that patient game to get back to his right. When teams show at the level of the ball or plug in at the nail hole while he goes left, he struggled more. It’s a minor area right now, but one that could have grave playoff consequences if not fixed long-term.

The bigger worry for Black comes with his self-creation outside of the rim. His pull-up jumper isn’t terrible, but it is slow and features the same funky mechanics as the rest of his shots. He’s a very set shooter, barely jumping off the ground and preferring to be fully set instead of rising into his shot. That limits his flexibility to score in space, though his runner and polish to counter drop coverage don’t make the mid-range as large of a concern.

My bigger worry is that teams will go underneath ball screens, daring him to shoot. It was a strategy he faced frequently this year at Arkansas and didn’t have a great counter for. He’d have plenty of time but still need to get square and set. The clunky mechanics certainly need to be sorted out, too.

There isn’t a ton of projectable shot-making in one-on-one situations, either. In recent years, we’ve seen other bagless wonders like Josh Giddey find success just by simply making the right play over and over again. Black has a similar offensive profile, though it’s worth noting that when the Thunder need a bucket, Giddey is often the guy who gives up the rock and spaces on the perimeter. Black may need his version of a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to take that mantle from him.

Of course, what Giddey has done so well over the last year or so is improve as a catch-and-shoot threat. Even making a mundane 34.3% of his this season was a major improvement and has allowed him to thrive off-ball while SGA makes his moves in isolation. Black will need the same development.

Right now, Anthony was able to knock down 32.2% of his 3-pointers off the catch, but in very low volume and with similarly stiff and troublesome mechanics. There’s a lot that needs to be smoothed out, especially considering Black needs to be so set on the catch.

Even if the primary role never comes around, Black is still an insane processor of the game and the exact right guy to pop in a winning system. He makes fantastic connective tissue passes, such as one-more looks on the perimeter and quick reads in advantaged situations. I love how he can take one bounce attacking a closeout and diagnose the right pass to sustain the advantage.

Those are winning plays that fit the mold of a positionless NBA. Because Black is 6’7” he can play a slashing, connective wing on offense without much concern. But if I’ve learned one lesson the hard way over the last few years, it’s to covet these ultra-fast decision-makers like none other. Role projection is still important, but even if a guy like Black doesn’t turn into a pure #1 option, positive impact can still be felt.

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Defense

While I remain high on the processing feel that Black brings to the table on offense, his best trait right now is his aptitude on the defensive end. Few freshmen are as pristine and smart with their rotations as Black, crafty with their on-ball defense, and filled with consistent effort. He is the best perimeter defender in this class, and potentially the best of the last several years.

Everything starts with his physical profile. Black is a super long-armed 6’7” with unreal lateral quickness. Few guys boast that combination. He can defend up the lineup against wings in isolation (he needs to add strength to do it full-time) or pressure smaller ball handlers in the full-court. When a bigger guard like Black is matched up with a quick 6’2” driver, the expectation is that Black will often be playing from behind or needing to recover and use his length. Instead, he’s crowding the ball and moving his feet to prevent the drive. It’s so rare and needs to be appreciated more.

Combine that with Black’s razor-sharp hands and he racks up a ton of on-ball deflections and plays in the full-court just being a gnat. He single-handedly took college teams out of their offense, abused the Florida Gators with his extended ball pressure, and can do the same against NBA teams who like to keep the ball static in the middle third of the floor.

Black projects as a true point guard because he can defend the position so well. Small complaints exist about how he gets through screens by being so upright and tall, though the pressure he can apply in crunch time situations to get into the basketball often can negate those challenges. He also has length to contest from behind in a meaningful way; recovering is so much easier with an almost seven-foot wingspan.

He uses his length so well as a periemter defender. When guarding the ball in space, he has his arms up to bother drivers. He can recover or bother from behind in ball screens. Few guys are as disciplined to continually slide their feet with their arms up in the way that Black does. He looks absolutely huge when guarding smaller guards.

Length isn’t just used to discourage shots or contest from behind. He is so good at using his length to disrupt finishes at the rim. Black is as disciplined of a guard prospect as I’ve seen on defense. He almost always jumps straight up to contest vertically, banking on smaller drivers not being able to finish through or over them. He doesn’t need to chase a ton of on-ball swats (although he does get some) and is better at just using his frame to do the work.

Guys have a really difficult time scoring over him at the rim. Because he avoids fouls in these situations (a mere 3.3% free throw rate on rim attempts from opponents), he makes it really hard for undisciplined drivers to get away with anything.

Great defenders can do more than one thing well, though. Black is excellent against smaller guards and can hold up at the point-of-attack against ball screens. Where I also found him to be impactful is in chasing speciality shooters off screens. He was excellent against Gradey Dick of Kansas and Jordan Hawkins of Connecticut in the NCAA Tournament, as well as when chasing around shooters in motion-based offenses of Vanderbilt and Texas A&M.

Black will become the de facto defensive-stopper in any backcourt he joins. Because he is so versatile, he can toggle against different matchups that his coaching staff sees fit. Defenders who are simultaneously versatile and excellent in multiple areas are the best players to have. Combine that with real size, quickness, and positional length, and Black checks all the boxes.

The last box to check is with his IQ. There aren’t a ton of highlight plays from Anthony Black as a help defender — it’s part of why they didn’t make their way into my YouTube scouting report. He can get steals in passing lanes, is really good digging down from one pass away, and is generally positionally sound while in rotation.

However, Black is one of the smartest help defenders I’ve seen. He’s active and flies around, but he also puts pressure on opposing ball handlers to make decisions or at least be aware of Black’s presence. As a ball handler, he’s so good at manipulating the help defense and forcing them to go where he wants — both with his eyes and his pace.

As a defender, Black turns that on its head and simply does what high-IQ ball handlers hate. He’s unpredictable. He stunts hard and recovers, then next time down will go all the way and dig. He stands in gaps to plug them up banking the backdoor pass is going to come so he can recover to it. He peel-switches as he runs someone off the line (which he does frequently) and then anticipates the kickout to the next player. Black covers up more offensive advantages than anyone else in this class sans-Victor. I absolutely love his defense top to bottom.

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Overall Analysis

Like any other teenager, Black has his warts. The shooting is a giant question mark. It’s a potentially lethal one if it doesn’t develop to at least passable levels. There’s no quicker way to play yourself off the floor in crunch time than to be unable to space the floor.

Black has literally everything else. He is an exquisite decision-maker, a versatile on-ball defender, a strong-bodied athlete, and a risk-free human being with insane characteristics.

I cannot project where Black’s shot will end up with any sort of certainty. That’s not how draft scouting works, anyway. I have my reservations about the motion changing a lot — though I look to the improvements made by Josh Giddey over the last two years and feel there is hope for passable impact even with his current, set form.

What I can do, however, is identify why I’d be willing to bet on Black to be the guy to make the necessary changes and persevere. It’s got nothing to do with his mechanics or his feel.

It’s who he is.

The work ethic he brings to the table is top notch, and his demeanor to go about winning makes him a winner. Those are the guys I want in my locker room, as bastions of my team’s culture, and to take the risk on ten times out of ten.

We’ve already seen how Black can be a winning player without the jump shot. He has the respect of his peer competitors and coaches in the SEC. With a jump shot, he’s a clear NBA starter and potentiall All-Star. And if one thing is clear, it’s that he’s going to put in the work to improve the jumper. He’s going to win in the dark.

It’s about time we vault Black closer to the tier of top guys in this class. He’s a certain top-six guy for me and, in the right situation, I could justify taking him in the top-four.