Best Prospects of the Last Five Years (2018-22): 25-21
Based on my pre-draft grades, these were the top players I've seen since starting watching draft film back in 2018
Since I started diving into the NBA Draft in depth back in 2018, I've tried to keep an eye on year-to-year comparisons and learn from the success & mistakes I've made in the past. Part of examining those lessons is by looking at the most consequential evaluations we do: the players at the very top of these drafts.
As we look back at the last five draft classes, we dive into the best prospects we have ever scouted and how we ranked them AT THE TIME OF THE DRAFT. Which prospects have made us look good? Which still needs time to develop? Who has disappointed and already looks like an error in our pre-draft analysis? We answer all those questions in this five-part series.
Part One of the series is out looking at prospects 25-21 in that evaluation period. Some are more recent names from this 2022 draft class who we heavily advocated for, while others have gotten a few seasons under their belt and achieved at a high clip. No matter how you slice it, you’ll already start to feel the mea culpa of some mistakes, recognition of where we need to look different philosophically and what types of players we’ve tended to slightly over or under value.
Check out our individual breakdowns of each prospect below, including our thoughts of the players pre-draft and the lessons we’ve learned looking back at them.
25. Devin Vassell - W, Florida State
Draft Year: 2020
Draft Rank: 3rd
Strengths: On-Ball Defense, Help Defense Impact, Catch-and-Shoot Impact
Improvement Areas: Shot Creation, Finishing, Strength
Part of this series is in looking back at some mistakes. You’ll notice that my board has, for a long period of time, been unconventional. For example, in 2020, Devin Vassell sat third on my board ahead of guys like Tyrese Haliburton and LaMelo Ball.
The idea behind Vassell sitting third that year was simple: we thought he would be, at minimum, a dominant on-ball defender and really good catch-and-shoot option. Think about the role Mikal Bridges fills now, and that was our vision for the baseline that Vassell would fill.
His defense at the NBA level hasn’t quite been that elite, though he’s been good on that end. What we also saw with Vassell was upside to become a solid shot-maker off the bounce. He was comfortable at Florida State with his dribble pull-up. While a wide driver and never a great finisher, there was some mid-range prowess that could be seen and potentially harnessed.
As it’s come to be, Vassell has transformed into a nearly 20 PPG scorer in year three with the San Antonio Spurs, dominating the mid-range and becoming a tough shot-maker. We may have been a tad high on Vassell in comparison to others in his draft class (and great prospects across multiple classes), but damn were we enamored with him as the highest-end role player in a class that ultimately did not impress us with high-end talent.
What we said at the time:
“He can thrive in a switching scheme, he can win individual matchups late-clock at the elbows and, once he adds strength, he can will be a shutdown option to defend the league's top scorers. We don't have many of these guys, but they're incredibly important to playing winning basketball…. Vassell shows small glimpses of solid playmaking: fluidity off the bounce, vision to make a crosscourt pass, occasionally smooth pull-up jumpers. But right now, he's a high-30 percent 3-point shooter with high volume.” — The Box and One
24. Bennedict Mathurin - W, Arizona
Draft Year: 2022
Draft Rank: 7th
Strengths: Off-Ball Offense, Scoring Upside, Defensive Potential
Improvement Areas: Playmaking Consistency, Defensive Focus, Shot Selection
About one-third of the way through his rookie season, Bennedict Mathurin has found a great deal of success in the NBA. He’s scoring the ball at a high level, averaging 17.9 points on 42-36-80 splits. The future is bright for him as a high-caliber wing that plays on-ball and off-ball, particularly because he is already playing a more polished style with the ball in his hands than he did during his tenure at Arizona.
Mathurin gets to the free throw line at a higher rate, gets more pick-and-roll reps, and pushes in transition a great deal. His athleticism, strength, and confidence have translated immediately to the league, aided by the similarities between his college offense and the role he’s playing in Indiana next to Tyrese Haliburton.
While Mathurin quickly has established himself as a hit and a top name in the 2022 draft class, I do want to give the rest of the class plenty of time to prove themselves. Because he was a multi-year college player, has a more simplified NBA role, and is playing in a very similar system to the one he did in college, it’s more expected that Mathurin would hit the ground running and have a great start to his career. There’s no reason to believe he will regress, but if we’re trying to figure out the best prospects from each draft class, 27 career games is not enough time to properly make that determination.
What we said at the time:
“At 6’6” with a 6’9” wingspan and vastly underrated hops, he’s the premier 3-point shooting wing in this class. He shot 37% from 3 this year and 38.3% over his two-year career with the Wildcats. He’s got pristine form, legit elevation on his jumper and movement shooting upside that makes him the ideal off-ball scorer… Mathurin combines the low-risk impact of an off-ball scoring threat with the very realistic upside of a secondary scorer in the half-court.” — The Box and One
23. Jonathan Kuminga - F, G-League Ignite
Draft Year: 2021
Draft Rank: 6th
Strengths: 1v1 Scoring, Athleticism, Playmaking Upside
Improvement Areas: Shooting Consistency, Ball Security, Shot Selection
Kuminga has always looked the part, even from a young age. He made the decision to try out the G-League Ignite program during its pilot season, a risk that we saw at the time as very brave. Kuminga’s game definitely was more of a pro-style than one that would thrive in the college game due to his affinity for the mid-range and need for floor spacing around him. But in college, he could physically overwhelm opponents due to his insane athleticism — something that wouldn’t be the case playing against professionals in the G-League.
While Kuminga has our respect for such a decision, we also saw a high-volume achiever on offense with every natural tool to be great on the defensive end. The handle was good enough to create separation, the mid-range pull-up smooth when teams backed off and feared his first step, and the defense able to translate at a high level.
When Golden State drafted him seventh overall, there were mixed feelings. On one hand, Steve Kerr’s staff does a great job of surrounding guys with talent and spacing, the switching defense would help Kuminga a lot, and the lack of need for immediate production could give Jonathan time to develop. In that sense, it’s still too early to discuss return on investment; he’s only played 93 career games behind such a jam-packed veteran rotation of scorers.
On the other side of the coin, Kuminga’s offensive style never seems to mesh well with what the Warriors value: ball movement, 3-pointers, and high-feel plays over impressive one-on-one moves.
When we evaluated Kuminga, his natural tools were the selling point, with an advanced scoring ability at his young age also having appeal. What we’ve learned a lot through the last year or so is to value feel a great deal more; guys like Tyrese Haliburton and Franz Wagner were outside of our top-15 in their draft years and have already yielded short-term results and continued long-term upside higher than Kuminga.
We can see a world in which Kuminga becomes a really good offensive piece in the NBA, though at this juncture his athleticism and defense are the calling cards. He needs to shoot the ball well from 3, something that he didn’t do consistently at the time of the draft. Perhaps we should have valued the scalability of his off-ball game a tad more, but the big lesson here is less about Kuminga and more about how to value players like him in relation to those with elite feel.
What we said at the time:
“While his shooting numbers weren't impressive and he was taking a great deal of shots to get those numbers high, the raw athleticism, size and comfort Kuminga has running an offense through him are all tantalizing in combination with his frame… Kuminga is more of an initiator of contact, seeking to bulldoze and slowly back down/ spin to death anyone who dares crowd him. He's long and lean, and he'd prefer to patiently drop step his way to the rim than fire up a mid-range jumper.” — The Box and One
22. Jaden Hardy - CG, G-League Ignite
Draft Year: 2022
Draft Rank: 6th
Strengths: 1v1 Scoring, PNR Upside, Shooting Potential
Improvement Areas: Finishing, Defensive Impact, Athleticism
I’m not sure there’s a player we went out on a limb for mroe than Jaden Hardy in 2022. After a disappointing season in the G-League on an efficiency basis, Hardy’s draft stock tanked in the mainstream and he fell to the second round during the 2022 NBA Draft. Seeing these trends, a lot of our rankings felt like a course-correction, clinging onto a high school prodigy with elite scoring ability whose circumstances we felt were heavily to blame for the inefficient numbers.
Hardy has yet to play enough NBA minutes to prove this right or wrong, though his heavy presence in the G-League indicates that he won’t immediately be a superstar. We talked a lot pre-draft about the need to be patient with Hardy, that teenagers simply carrying his volume of scoring in a professional league is more telling about his talent than the numbers. We highlighted growth throughout the season and discussed how it felt and seemed sustainable. We broke down the handle, the jumper, and the very real off-ball ability that would raise his floor as an offensive performer.
Perhaps the biggest reason we advocated for Hardy was because of a philisophical belief we have: at the top, you draft for top-option scorers. Based on the volume, the skill to create space and drill shots when space didn’t exist, and an underrated playmaking prowess, we saw a clearer pathway for Hardy to become a number-one option than most draft prospects. While some athletic and defensive flaws existed, as well as areas to clean up on offense, we decided that we’d rather be wrong about a potential 28 PPG scorer than go after a high-end second option — areas we projected guys like Vassell, Mathurin, and Kuminga at their apex.
It will likely take 3-4 years to prove just how right or wrong we are on a guy like Hardy. Perhaps we’ll look back and feel like we were overcompensating for a public slip he was taking by placing him this high on our board, but I will stand by just how enamored I was with his scoring upside watching him play with the Ignite.
What we said at the time:
“[One] trait Hardy holds that many other scorers his age don’t is the ability to hit shots when space is limited. He’s got a shifty handle, drills shots with hands in his face and is really good in the mid-range. Late-clock, Hardy deserves the ball in his hands and has proven that, regardless of what the percentages suggest about efficiency. The efficiency will come, and is not as damning as many thing considering he was playing in a pro league on a team with zero spacing and few other self-creators. — The Box and One
21. Shaedon Sharpe - W, Kentucky
Draft Year: 2022
Draft Rank: 5th
The 2022 man of mystery, Shaedon getting this high of a ranking despite not playing basketball the year before he was drafted is a testament to his freaky athleticism. Guys who move like he does — and use it on both ends — don’t come along very often. The upside was ridiculous and evident.
Sharpe’s NBA role with the Blazers has been predictably simple. He’s contributing sooner than expected due to that simplicity, and we all realize it will take many years before he turns into a top offensive option or on-ball creator. The flashes he showed in high school were so enticing in that regard that he surpassed the likes of Hardy, Kuminga and Mathurin on our pre-draft rankings. His athleticism felt like it established a floor of impact, while his upside was tethered to that self-creation jumper.
We could easily look back and feel duped for having Sharpe this high, that a safer path would have been better. But as we look back at five years worth of draft classes, only about 14-16 guys end up being guys we project as multi-year All-Stars without much worry. The risk still is apparent in this draft range, and at a certain point, we felt alright gambling on Sharpe’s tools in comparison to the others who were on the board. He might be one of the best wing athletes we’ve ever evaluated.
What we said at the time:
“…It’s very clear to see the legitimate upside Sharpe possesses as a top creator. He measured with a 6’11’ wingspan at the NBA Draft Combine and is an elite athlete. That leaping ability and length are great baselines for work on the defensive end.
Combine that with small evidence in high school and AAU play of tough shot-making, 3-point range off the bounce, an aesthetically-pleasing jumper and some playmaking ability for others, and Sharpe is definitely a top-tier talent if he pans out.” — The Box and One