Best Prospects of the Last Five Years (2018-22): 5-1
Based on my pre-draft grades, these were the top players I've seen since starting watching draft film back in 2018
Since I started diving into the NBA Draft in depth back in 2018, I've tried to keep an eye on year-to-year comparisons and learn from the success & mistakes I've made in the past. Part of examining those lessons is by looking at the most consequential evaluations we do: the players at the very top of these drafts.
As we look back at the last five draft classes, we dive into the best prospects we have ever scouted and how we ranked them AT THE TIME OF THE DRAFT. Which prospects have made us look good? Which still needs time to develop? Who has disappointed and already looks like an error in our pre-draft analysis? We answer all those questions in this five-part series.
This is the final installment and video, looking at the five best prospects that we ever scouted based on our evaluations at the time of the draft. You’ll see that we pretty much went 4/5 — four have the makings of multi-time All-Stars. One has been a pretty large disappointment.
Check out our individual breakdowns of each prospect below, including our thoughts of the players pre-draft and the lessons we’ve learned looking back at them.
5. Paolo Banchero - F, Duke
Draft Year: 2022
Draft Rank: 1st
Strengths: 1v1 Scoring, Finishing, Playmaking
Improvement Areas: Shooting Range, Quick Attacks, Defensive Impact
Think of Paolo Banchero as one of the most polished one-on-one scorers we’ve seen, if not the most polished, since that 2018 draft class. He had three-level potential, the ability to create his own shot consistency, a deep back of tricks, great footwork, patience, strength to finish through bodies, and a tight enough handle to create separation when crowded. While there were some slight worries about the consistency of his shooting and ability to nail NBA 3-pointers, we were never overly concerned about that with Banchero — his form was solid and percentages weren’t terrible. If that shot came, he’d be an elite three-level scorer for years to come.
The underrated part of Banchero’s game was always his passing. To be a top offensive option in the NBA means to have a good balance between playmaking for others and filling it up yourself. While Paolo skews more toward the scoring than the passing, he is capable and far from selfish. Getting him more pick-and-roll reps in the NBA seemed inevitable to us.
That doesn’t mean Paolo was without areas to improve before joining the NBA. He has a tendency to play a slow, methodical style of play that forces him to operate in isolation and not make quick decisions off the catch. He can get so many easy buckets for himself (and others) if he learns how to get downhill quickly. The defense wasn’t terrible in our eyes, but it certainly wasn’t great, due mostly to his effort.
While Paolo and Chet were neck-and-neck for us, the tie goes with the offensive focal point. There was little doubt that Banchero checked every box to become that player in the NBA for years to come and would be a multiple-time All-Star. Midway through his rookie year, he looks on pace to meet those lofty expectations.
What we said at the time:
“He’s a terrific scorer with as much polish as we’ve seen from a freshman in college in years. His footwork is exquisite, he’s incredibly patient and uses a ton of incredibly potent jab steps, pump fakes and pivots to score. He’s strong-bodied to initiate and score through contact, has good touch with both hands at the rim, is explosive to finish above it and really likes to mismatch post.”
4. Luka Doncic - CG, Real Madrid
Draft Year: 2018
Draft Rank: 2nd
Strengths: Shooting off the Bounce, Finishing, Playmaking
Improvement Areas: Defensive Impact, Ball Security, Handling Ball Pressure
Now we’re getting into the portion of the rankings where we wish we could make some sort of adjustment. It seems clear to us that Luka Doncic should be, at lowest, the #2 prospect to come out since 2018 and the obvious number one in his draft class. Back in 2018 when he was draft eligible, he came in as the most decorated pre-draft player of all-time, with Euroleague MVP honors under his belt at the age of 18.
For some reason, athletic concerns about how much longer and stronger the NBA would be dropped Luka down to the third overall pick behind Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III. At the time of the draft class, we only had limited access to seeing Doncic play. Highlights were available, DraftExpress scouting videos popular, and one or two random games that we were able to watch pirated and shared online. If we had full access to games in the way we do now, we surmise Doncic may have overtaken the top spot in 2018.
Everything about his offensive game has, in retrospect, been perfectly translatable. No increase on athleticism around him has hampered his scoring or passing ability. That’s likely because Doncic, 6’7” in his own right, never relied on athleticism to get to his spots and score. His vision and high-level passing would dissect any defense and actually thrive in the NBA, where spacing is more regular and defensive three seconds force rim protectors to move. Doncic has the clutch gene and unreal one-on-one moves in late-clock situations that make him the ideal number one option.
We’ve learned a lot from the Luka eval and from going back to watch his pre-draft film. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is how much to value professional competition and success against it in comparison to collegiate play. There’s a level of American arrogance that goes into thinking Euroleague, NBL, or other common pre-draft routes that aren’t in the States are inferior competition or far less athletic than Division I college basketball. Luka’s success, as well as the triumphs of Josh Giddey and LaMelo Ball after him, should destroy those stereotypes.
3. Mohamed Bamba - P, Texas
Draft Year: 2018
Draft Rank: 1st
Strengths: Rim Protection, Shooting Upside, Finishing
Improvement Areas: Offensive Polish, Rebounding, Strength
Here’s the biggest mistake, though. In 2018, we ranked a player ahead of Luka Doncic. A guy we got caught playing the comparison game with, linking him to a trendy All-Star at the time and assuming that, because they were similar in some ways stylistically, the prospect would have a similar outcome.
That’s a tough trap to fall into, but one we learned from the hard way. Mo Bamba was our top guy in 2018 because we saw a 3-point shooting Rudy Gobert in him. The size, length, dominance as a college rim protector, and upside to be a pick-and-pop floor-spacer was too tantalizing for us that we overlooked parts of how consistent and impactful Bamba would be in key areas.
If you want to read more about our missteps and what we’ve learned from the Bamba mistake, check out the piece we did on this exact situation a few months ago.
The Bamba ranking will haunt our evals forever and is the giant black mark on an otherwise strong 2018 order. We’ve made other mistakes at the top since then in terms of who we didn’t put in the top tier of prospects (LaMelo Ball, Tyrese Haliburton, Franz Wagner) that were identified fairly regularly as potential stars. But Bamba stands out as the one guy we bet the house on and lost.
2. Cade Cunningham - W, Oklahoma State
Draft Year: 2021
Draft Rank: 1st
Strengths: Passing, 1v1 Scoring, Defensive Impact
Improvement Areas: Ball Security, Vertical Athleticism, Acceleration
When Cade Cunningham made the decision to go to Oklahoma State, we had a small worry about how the talent around him would impact his draft stock. Cade was a clear top player coming out of high school, a massive guard with elite feel, defensive versatility, and a calming demeanor. But we’ve also seen several top draft prospects in the past miss the NCAA Tournament on poor teams (Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, etc.) and get criticized for doing so.
Cade stepped up and led the Cowboys to the NCAA Tournament, a testament to just how special this kid really is. A major concern pre-college was on the legitimacy of his 3-point jumper. He responded by drilling isolation jumper after isolation jumper and knocking down 40% of his triples in college.
Overall, Cade enamored us with his ability to constantly make the right basketball play. At some point, when surrounded by better shooters and capable talent, that propensity to do the right thing would be rewarded. Through 18 months with the Detroit Pistons, we haven’t seen him in such an environment, and he’s still been a wildly productive pro.
Perhaps the jumper hasn’t been as strong as we once thought, a reason Cade doesn’t belong above the likes of Luka Doncic or maybe even Paolo Banchero on these lists. But the cerebral playmaking, the tough and rugged scoring, and the impactful defense appeared far more translatable than any other top prospects we’ve seen. To us, Cunningham was the best passer over the last few years (at least of top-10 hope in a draft class) and one of the more impactful wing defenders.
We still need time to fully evaluate Cunningham in relation to others on this list. His second NBA season ended prematurely with a stress fracture, a great disappointment to Pistons fans everywhere. While it’s hard to focus on the future without getting reps for the best young player, Detroit faithful should be excited for adding more talent around Cade moving forward — he’s the type of player who performs better when he has great scoring options around him. That’s the type of superstar we like.
What we said at the time:
“Skill level is through the roof for a wing handler with a 7'0" wingspan. He can score or create in literally every position on the floor: out of the post, isolations atop the key, elbows, off ball screens, in transition, spotting up or running as a movement shooter. He flashed ability in every category while shooting 40% from 3 and anchoring an offense where he was literally the engine on every possession and the focal point of every defensive game plan.”
1. Zion Williamson - ATH, Duke
Draft Year: 2019
Draft Rank: 1st
Strengths: Athleticism, Multi-Positional Defense, Playmaking
Improvement Areas: Shooting Consistency, Reliance on Physicality, Off-Hand
Quite frankly, there has never been a prospect like Zion Williamson and there may never be.
Zion’s time at Duke was explosive and head-turning. He lived in transition and on the highlight reels, throwing down massive dunk after massive dunk. He was far from just a novelty item, though. Zion was the most efficient finisher for a face-up attacker we’d ever seen — and he did it all without being ambidextrous to a high degree. Zion’s physicality and strength were so dominating that he could get to his spots no matter what the opposing defenders did. He bulldozed college defenders in such a terrorizing way that there seemed to be very little doubt that he could do it at the next level.
The skill around Zion’s game needed a little polish and left some room for debate. He was a good passer but got very few pick-and-roll reps. Turning into ‘point Zion’ the way he has with the Pelicans was not obvious, even if the indicators were there. His shooting was constantly picked apart; he shot 33% from 3 at Duke but had a set shot and was slow to get into it with several mechanical errors. The way his frame was built led to a lot of talk about injuries and longevity, something we really don’t believe much in drafting to avoid when a talent is head-and-shoulders above the competition.
Most disappointing for Zion has been his defense. Williamson showed us flashes of being able to really guard multiple positions and to be a wildly impactful help defender. Neither have translated well to the Pelicans, for some reason. Still, this ranking based on his college film feels justified to an extent that no revisionist history will talk us out of it. At Duke, Zion was a different breed and clearly special. As he gets healthy with the Pelicans, he’ll likely prove to everyone that he still is that player on a nightly basis.
“Williamson is easily the top prospect of the year, if not the most dominant of the last 10 to 35 years. His combination of athleticism, size and strength are unseen before, and there is no limit to highlights that demonstrate them all. Teams are literally tanking because of Zion, the far-and-away top pick in the draft.”