Best Prospects of the Last Five Years (2018-22): 15-11
Best Prospects of the Last Five Years (2018-22): 15-11
Based on my pre-draft grades, these were the top players I've seen since starting watching draft film back in 2018
Since I started diving into the NBA Draft in depth back in 2018, I've tried to keep an eye on year-to-year comparisons and learn from the success & mistakes I've made in the past. Part of examining those lessons is by looking at the most consequential evaluations we do: the players at the very top of these drafts.
As we look back at the last five draft classes, we dive into the best prospects we have ever scouted and how we ranked them AT THE TIME OF THE DRAFT. Which prospects have made us look good? Which still needs time to develop? Who has disappointed and already looks like an error in our pre-draft analysis? We answer all those questions in this five-part series.
Check out our individual breakdowns of each prospect below, including our thoughts of the players pre-draft and the lessons we’ve learned looking back at them.
15. Michael Porter Jr. - F, Missouri
Draft Year: 2018
Draft Rank: 4th
Strengths: Catch-and-Shoot Impact, Scoring Upside, Rebounding
Improvement Areas: Health, On-Ball Defense, Defensive Engagement
Perhaps we were naive at the time, but we didn’t buy into dropping Michael Porter Jr. down our draft rankings after one year of injury troubles at Missouri. Sure, MPJ’s back hasn’t held up incredibly well in the NBA and there have been some issues. But Porter, a great scorer at the high school level with the ability to create in isolation and drill jumpers from 3, always struck me as the right type of player for NBA stardom.
Stardom hasn’t exactly happened for Porter. Injuries have been a pretty large factor for him, missing his entire rookie season, and then only playing 25 games since the 2021-22 season began. When he’s on the floor, we see such a valuable floor-spacer. In a way, Porter was just a slightly faster version of Jabari Smith, though Jabari was and is a better defender.
While there were health concerns prior to the draft, it’s challenging to determine whether this evaluation was a mistake based on how much time he’s missed as a pro.
14. Scottie Barnes - ATH, Florida State
Draft Year: 2021
Draft Rank: 5th
Strengths: Defensive Impact, Athleticism, Playmaking
Improvement Areas: Shooting Range, Pull-Up Scoring, Rebounding
We absolutely loved Barnes before the draft. A guy who checked all the intangible boxes, Barnes is a great teammate and personality with a strong work ethic and plays the game with energy. At Florida State, and within their switching scheme, he guarded 1 thru 5 on defense and played as a de facto point guard in the half-court. While his athleticism and defense were greatly related, we saw him being a multi-positional defender of the highest caliber.
Everything on offense was going to take time. He was able to get into the lane, run the pick-and-roll, and create for others during his time with the Seminoles. There wasn’t a ton of proof that Barnes would get there quickly, we just that he could become a Giannis-lite frontcourt facilitator who kills in transition.
Year #2 has been rough on Barnes with the Toronto Raptors. He isn’t thriving at the point of attack on defense, both taking away his greatest hypothetical strength and the piece that fuels his offense the most. Small gains as a jump shooter have been impressive, though the shot is still far away from being a real threat.
Perhaps we were a tad overambitious in projecting Barnes as an eventual half-court creator and should not have valued him above guys like Ja Morant as a result. It’s still early, though, and Barnes’ strong rookie season is proof that there is a legitimate star upside lying beneath the surface.
What we said at the time:
“In a vacuum, a 6'9" super athlete with a 7'2" wingspan and all the skills of a pass-first point guard who can defend 1 thru 5 is enough to be considered an elite prospect. The rarity of the combination of traits he possesses cannot be lost when evaluating prospects in this class… Add the jump shot and he's a monster, a high-ceiling beast who belongs in the top tier [of prospects].”
13. Evan Mobley - P, USC
Draft Year: 2021
Draft Rank: 4th
Strengths: Rim Protection, Defensive Versatility, Playmaking
Improvement Areas: Shooting Consistency, Scoring off the Bounce, Strength
Mobley’s defense has definitely been as advertised. Few rookie bigs have ever been as impactful as he was; Mobley is so damn smart with angles and has an ability to slide his feet that few seven-footers do. We did not see Mobley playing the 4 coming, though, and actively thought that he would struggle there as opposed to playing the 5. While he’s still skinny early in his career, the major concern was on the offensive end.
Cleveland has done a remarkable job getting Mobley to coexist with Jarret Allen. The Cavs are a top team in the Eastern Conference due in large part to Mobley and Allen’s defense, unlocked by Mobley’s versatility and willingness to play as the more perimeter-oriented big man in the rotation.
Still, we have long-term concerns about Mobley ever becoming an offensive hub. His defense is so damn good that he checks in at 13th on this rankings list regardless; we wrestled with him vs. Barnes a great deal pre-draft and chose Mobley due to the instant impact his defense could make. However, we really can’t imagine Mobley being a high-level shot creator or finisher off the bounce.
The Cavs have the personnel to mask Mobley’s weaknesses on that end, which could be what allows him to perform higher than this ranking — or at least above our expectations. Until we see him become a more dynamic offensive piece that shoots better than 24% from 3 for his career, we’ll feel comfortable in keeping Mobley below some of the guards we have above him.
What we said at the time:
“He can guard both frontcourt spots, albeit he's best as a rim protector at the 5. Great in any type of PNR scheme, the combination of fluidity, length and polish is rare for a college freshman. Mobley's angles in the two-man game are already so advanced it's ridiculous… The pick-and-roll finishing skills are really high-level. Dexterity, great hands, uses both at the rim, lob catcher or scorer off one bounce... he pairs well with any type of guard.”
12. Jaden Ivey - PG, Purdue
Draft Year: 2022
Draft Rank: 3rd
Strengths: Athleticism, Scoring Upside, Catch-and-Shoot Upside
Improvement Areas: Ball Security, Mid-Range Game, Defensive Consistency
I had the misfortune of coaching against Ivey when he was a freshman in high school. He’s always been an elite athlete, but the burst while playing with the ball in his hands held up on an elite level while playing at Purdue. He cleaned up a lot between freshman and sophomore years at Purdue, most notably his jumper. He looked competent as a catch-and-shoot threat, was getting better at drilling pull-ups when teams went under, and started to play at two speeds out of the pick-and-roll.
Still, that burst and athleticism was incredibly enticing for a big guard. We foresaw Ivey becoming, in essence, what Ja Morant had been in the eyes of scouts back in 2019. Learning the lessons from having Morant feel undervalued, we bought in high on Ivey’s tools and slid him to 3rd overall on our 2022 big board, ahead of popular top prospect Jabari Smith.
It’s far too early in Ivey’s career to be discussing how right or wrong we are on his evaluation. Initial returns are positive in terms of his finishing and burst, and the confidence he’s playing with is refreshing. The rest of his rookie campaign will likely be dedicated to him getting on-ball reps because Cade Cunningham is done for the year due to injury. We could see an explosion for Ivey that legitimately keeps him in this tier and ahead of other young stars like Mobley or Barnes.
What we said at the time:
“Ivey is an elite finisher and a guy who gets to the rim often. While there are still improvements to be done to his scoring arsenal in the half-court (particularly in the mid-range), we’ve come around to thinking that his brand of athleticism is so special and unique that the absence of finesse may not be a handicapper.
He stands out to us as a point guard who can handle a large volume of PNR reps. He grew as a playmaker, uses hostage dribbles and snaking moves frequently enough and is always a threat to rise up on any big man who is slightly out of position.”
11. Darius Garland - PG, Vanderbilt
Draft Year: 2019
Draft Rank: 2nd
Strengths: Shooting Range, PNR Creation, Quickness
Improvement Areas: Defensive Impact, Playing Through Contact, Weak Hand
Back in 2019, we were enamored with Darius Garland as a potential scoring guard and one of the best deep range shooting prospects we’d seen since Stephen Curry. There was an element of risk in placing Garland this high on our board because he barely played at Vanderbilt due to injury. But we saw enough in Garland to place him above Ja Morant or RJ Barrett. In year three, Garland averaged 21.7 points and 8.6 assists per game; All-Star numbers from the point guard. He’s shot 38% from 3 on high volume for his career and been one of the best deep shooters in the league.
The areas we saw as potential shortcomings (defense and physicality) are still apparent, but his ability to play through the pick-and-roll and space the floor is a valued commodity.
We don’t think this ended up being too high for Garland; he’s a unique offensive piece and one of the best non-switchable guards in the NBA. There may be defensive limitations that would, if exposed, drop him farther down this list. But similar to Mobley, the infrastructure and complementary nature of the pieces in Cleveland helps mask their shortcomings and allow both to be the best versions of themselves. Garland is an excellent young guard.
What we said at the time:
“The shooting range and effectiveness are hallmarks of elite offensive guards these days. Garland’s ability to score from way behind the three-point line will force NBA defenses to defend him differently. As we have seen with players like Stephen Curry and Trae Young who are not elite athletes, extended defenses can provide more room to be crafty and creative when breaking that first line… he’s going to thrive when surrounded by good players at the next level.”