Blasting Through the Rookie Wall
Blasting Through the Rookie Wall
A look at rookie performances post All-Star Break, and what that might tell us moving forward about their impact in the league
The Big Three
As the season came to a close, three rookies stood head and shoulders above the rest as either high-volume scorers who could someday become top options for their teams or really efficient scorers with the tantalizing ability to add that volume someday.
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
20.2 PTS (44.8% FG, 35.3% 3FG)
6.7 REB
4.1 AST, 3.0 TO
7.1 FTA
0.7 BLK
Banchero was the wire-to-wire favorite to be the rookie of the year. The physicality he played with (7.1 FTA per game after the All-Star Break) was absurd and consistent throughout the year. After a disastrous shooting stretch in February, Banchero rebounded well to finish the year and found his touch from deep. Most importantly, the Magic surged down the stretch, with Banchero as the lone rookie in their regular rotation. The future is bright in Orlando, and a huge reason why is that they’ve found their top option scorer for years to come.
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
18.6 PTS (54.6% FG, 42.9% 3FG)
5.4 REB
4.3 AST, 1.8 TO
1.7 STL
88% FT
A groundswell of support for Williams as a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate grew steam in March. It’s a little too much for me to overtake Banchero, as I believe producing at volume is the hardest thing for a rookie to do in the NBA. What Williams did is a close second, though: efficient impact for a winning team. The success of the Thunder cannot be lost in evaluating what Jalen showed down the stretch. His game is scalable to a bench role, a secondary starter, and shows flashes of legitimate stardom. He has an unreal feel for the game, shot well from deep (albeit on low volume) and is an impactful defender. He’s going to be a stud for years to come.
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
19.3 PTS (40.7% FG, 36.4% 3FG)
3.7 REB
7.1 AST, 4.3 TO
0.5 STL
Finally, Ivey is the third player here who stands out as having star potential. That potential was evident to me back in his days at Purdue, he’s just needed to become a little more efficient, learn to play at varying speeds, and gain some form of a mid-range game. The process wasn’t always pretty in Detroit, but Ivey showed flashes of adding all three to his arsenal down the stretch. Playing without Cade Cunningham allowed him to take the reigns and explore producing as a top option. He wasn’t incredibly efficient from the field and did turn it over a lot, but averaging over 19 points and 7 assists shows that he’s got the juice.
Other Top-10 Picks
While those three players are the only ones who stand out as sure-fire stars, there are plenty of players drafted in the top ten who had impactful finishes to the season.
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
12.9 PTS (47.5% FG, 40.4% 3FG)
4.7 REB
1.6 AST, 0.4 TO
0.8 STL, 0.5 BLK
Murray was Mr. Consistent throughout the campaign, and his numbers didn’t take a major jump post-ASB. Still, for a rookie to finish the season by shooting over 40% from 3 down the stretch and helping the Kings as a member of their starting unit was wildly impressive. It won’t get talked about much due to his quiet nature and mistake-free game, but he’s been a vital cog in Sacramento’s ascent out West. A really good fourth or fifth starter long-term.
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs (8 games)
16.9 PTS (47% FG, 18.5% 3FG)
7.4 REB
2.6 AST, 1.8 TO
Sochan suffered a season-ending injury, so his post-All-Star sample is rather small. The shot took a half-step backward after an impressive January on that front. Sochan’s entire rookie season was one that saw great progression throughout. He improved more during the Winter than any rook I can remember, taking on top assignments on D and switching across the lineup while mismatch posting, overhauling his shooting mechanics, and converting near the rim on the other end. Sochan feels like he’s going to be a two-way buzzsaw for years to come.
Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers
14.7 PTS (46.3% FG, 36.6% 3FG)
4.0 REB
2.5 AST, 2.0 TO
0.7 STL, 0.4 BLK
The raw numbers after the All-Star Break don’t really do justice to Sharpe’s ascent down the stretch. Sure, the Blazers mailed it in a bit and played only young guys to secure their position in the lottery. But Sharpe was so good over the final 10 games of his season: 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists. Remember, this kid essentially skipped college and was a late-riser in high school on the national scene. For him to be able to pull this off in NBA games has me buzzing about his future. If anyone on this list is capable of moving into that top tier of performers, Sharpe is the guy…
Jabari Smith, Houston Rockets
14.6 PTS (44.6% FG, 31.7% 3FG)
7.6 REB
1.5 AST, 1.0 TO
0.6 STL, 0.9 BLK
This season was a pretty difficult one in Houston top to bottom. Smith got caught up in some coaching issues, an incredibly young roster, and a lot of guard play around him that failed to put him in positions to succeed. His raw numbers are and always were about opportunity, and the shooting was up and down throughout the year. It’s far too early to bail on Smith or even hit the panic button. I think his first season does reveal what I worried about pre-draft: his game in the NBA is going to significantly rely on good guards and playbooks to get him open.
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
14.9 PTS (45.7% FG, 34% 3FG)
4.0 REB
1.7 AST, 2.3 TO
82.5% FT
Mathurin was once a Rookie of the Year frontrunner, getting out of the gates as a strong and instant-impact guy. His finish to the season wasn’t bad by any means — 15 and 4 are good numbers for a rookie wing. The negative assist-to-turnover is indicative of poor decision-making, and his defense was really bad, even by rookie standards. Mathurin has the tools to fix those issues. That said, this season was not a slam dunk from him over the course of a full 82 games.
Strong Rookie Performers
Like every year, the 2022 draft class gave us a few powerful performers who were not taken inside the Top Ten. In fact, two of the four players we’ll mention were taken outside the Top Twenty! Sometimes we just misevaluate, and a few instant-impact role players have proven how quickly those misfires can become apparent.
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
12.4 PTS (73.6% FG)
10.8 REB
3.3 BLK
1.8 +/-
On a per-minute basis, Kessler might be the most impactful rookie in this entire class. He changed the game for the Jazz on the defensive end, swatting 3.7 shots per 36 minutes this year, second in the entire NBA behind Jaren Jackson Jr. His offensive game is simple, which is why his efficiency marks are so high, and head coach Will Hardy even let him start shooting the occasional 3-pointer down the stretch. Kessler is a walking double-double and dominant in Drop coverage. He’s a starting-caliber big in this league.
Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers
12.8 PTS (46.9% FG, 37.5% 3FG)
2.4 REB
5.5 AST, 1.6 TO
Another instant-impact role player, Nembhard did more than just fit into the rotation but became an impactful member of the starting lineup for the Pacers, starting 63 games on the year. He turned in some fantastic individual performances (I’ll never forget his 31 point, 13 assist performance against Golden State), but the hallmark of his rookie campaign was his overall consistency as a playmaker. Nembhard is a great passer, has good size at the point, and plays mistake-free basketball. Those traits will keep him around for a while.
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
10.7 PTS (63.7% FG)
9.3 REB
0.8 STL, 0.8 BLK
What Duren did as the youngest player in this rookie class deserves a lot of praise and to not be overlooked. The Pistons made the interesting decision to add James Wiseman to the mix mid-season, giving Duren competition at the big man spot. Both deserve to be in the Motor City long-term, but Duren averaging nearly a double-double in just over 24 minutes per game down the stretch shows me he has the higher ceiling. The defense and shot blocking will continue to come along; his position has a steep learning curve on that end. Instinctually and with the tools he brings to the table, Duren looks like a long-term starter in this league.
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
10.8 PTS (45.7% FG, 33.9% 3FG)
7.3 REB
1.4 AST, 1.6 TO
1.5 STL, 0.6 BLK
Eason was Mr. Consistent for the Rockets this year, and one of their bright spots from a plus-minus perspective. I’m not a massive fan of using the metric to determine value, but he was an outlier on a team filled with tons of negative numbers. He shot the ball better as a rookie than I expected, and his activity level on defense as a wing helped him cobble together moments of reliable impact. He looks the part of a true rotation player.
Other names to watch long-term: Christian Braun, Denver; Bryce McGowens, Charlotte; Jaylin Williams, Oklahoma City
Great Finishes to the Year
While those players mentioned above were fairly consistent throughout the campaign, some guys didn’t really hit their stride until late in the year. That could be for various reasons. Maybe they weren’t getting minutes until their teams fell out of the playoff race. Perhaps they just weren’t ready to make a positive impact. Either way, their uptick down the stretch needs to be noted when recapping the rookie class.
Mark Williams, Charlotte Hornets
11.9 PTS (64.6% FG)
10.1 REB
0.5 STL, 0.8 BLK
To me, the best ascent throughout the season among all big men belonged to Mark Williams. While Kessler and Duren produced fairly early, Williams had to earn his opportunity in Charlotte. He averaged a double-double after the break and was really good for them defensively. There are switchable moments from him, he’s freakin’ huge and mobile, and will be a more impactful offensive player once the Hornets get healthy and add some real players to the mix.
Jaden Hardy, Dallas Mavericks
12.8 PTS (45.3% FG, 45.9% 3FG)
2.7 REB
2.4 AST, 1.2 TO
Yes, I’m a huge Jaden Hardy fan. In games where he played over 25 minutes this year, he scored 25 points in all of them. He’s an instant bucket who can play on-ball or off-ball. Throughout the year, Hardy showed growth and understanding of how to get to his spots and take care of the ball more. He’s still got a ways to go on defense, and that may contribute to why his minutes were so inconsistent under Jason Kidd this year. He at least has proven he belongs in this league as a scoring specialist.
Malaki Branham, San Antonio Spurs
12.6 PTS (43.4% FG, 27.8% 3FG)
4.0 REB
1.9 AST, 1.4 TO
92% FT
Speaking of scoring specialists, Malaki Branham is bred to be a scorer. His 3-point stroke didn’t seem to translate consistently, but there are some really impressive moments from him as a bucket-getter. San Antonio will continue to bring him along slowly, and I’m curious what role he’ll have long-term within the organization. At the very least, he was good enough to stay a part of their roster-building plans.
Other noteworthy steps forward in-season: Ochai Agbaji, Utah; John Butler Jr, Portland