Brandon Miller: 2023 NBA Draft Scouting Report
Brandon Miller: 2023 NBA Draft Scouting Report
The best prospect in college basketball this year finished on a low note, both on and off the court. Is he a contender for the #2 overall pick?
When all else fails, bank on guys who have the combination of positional size, shooting ability, and feel.
Brandon Miller, somehow, has all of those traits and more. He’s a 6’9” wing with real length and handling upside. He shoots the piss out of the ball, drilling 38.4% of his 3-pointers this season with tons of touch in the mid-range. He’s demonstrated sharp passing traits at times as well. And with all those skills, Miller was insanely effective on high volume. He anchored the offense for the #1 seed in the country heading into the NCAA Tournament, averaging over 23 points per 40 minutes as a freshman.
Miller’s performances throughout the season also showcased his fantastic progression from November to March. At the start of the year, finishing was an issue for Miller, as he found himself athletically outmatched near the rim. He got so much better as the year went on, learning how to play more controlled and set up his scores at the basket off two feet. His passing feel and pace got better, and he was part of an electric defense where his role was overwhelmingly positive.
Miller vaulted himself into the conversation for a top-three pick, if not all the way up to #2, with how great of a year he had. He was undoubtedly the best prospect in all of college basketball this season. Public reaction gets so binary when discussing these players in the 2-4 range in relation to each other. If you nitpick any areas or have a player ranked lower than someone else, it’s seen as being opposed to that player and a ‘hater’.
To be clear, I love Miller’s upside and how well his game fits next to so many different types of players at the next level. What I’ve found, watching the tape back and doing a deep and detailed dive into Miller, are a few areas that give me some concerns about handing him the keys as a number-one option. He seems more like an excellent #2 option.
As this is written a few days ahead of the 2023 NBA Draft lottery, draft range from 2 through 4 is largely going to be dependent on who is drafting where. That’s particularly notable when comparing Miller with Amen Thompson, two drastically different guys in terms of their off-ball impacts. But on my big board right now, Miller is firmly in the 4th spot in this class.
I also want to be very clear on the tenor of the rest of this scouting report. It’s impossible to discuss Miller without acknowledging the situation that took place over the winter with teammate Darius Miles Jr. That said, I don’t have a clear enough grasp on the facts or the character of Miller personally to weigh in one way or another. This scout will focus on his on-court game, while acknowledging that the intangibles will ultimately matter a great deal in how he stacks up next to the likes of Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson, and others atop this draft class.
Offense
How can you not love the shooting?
Before a rough four-game stretch to finish the season (at the wrong time, no doubt), Miller was at 40.7% from 3-point range on an unreal 7.4 attempts per game. He is a pure shooter without question. His form is fluid and quick, he has deep range, decent hips while moving to the right, and real confidence to pull even over the top of closeouts.
Nate Oats at Alabama used Miller in tremendous ways. I always say that primary scorers should prepare to be in the middle third of the floor almost exclusively; the threat of them making a decision or driving there forces defensive rotation in itself. Oats’ 5-out offense put Miller in a lot of high ball screens, empty ball screens, middle DHOs or down screens, and screen-away action from the 5 that allowed him to catch on the move. Brandon was great at filling behind (from slot to slot) when the other guard would drive it, too.
But my favorite use of Miller came in late-clock situations in Ghost pick-and-pop actions. Sure, Miller can be the handler in those situations, but he can also be the screener. He doesn’t need long to get his feet set, has deep range, and is a natural sniper. The late-clock play helped weaponize his partner in Mark Sears/ Jahvon Quinerly and got the Crimson Tide tons of great late-clock looks.
Miller’s late-clock offense is also quite potent when the ball is in his hands. Oats’ analytically-driven style took him away from the mid-range a fair amount, but Miller was excellent in those areas back in high school and AAU. His propensity for tough one-on-one pull-ups might pop more under a coach who would encourage him to take them.
His go-to move, his turnaround jumper, is certainly ISO-worthy and a nearly-unguardable stroke at his size. He turns around the tough shoulder to contest, and the touch is clearly evident.
If Miller is going to be a high-volume ISO creator or a guy who plays with the ball in his hands, playmaking is going to be thrust upon his shoulders. I’ve been pretty impressed with the flashes of passing I’ve seen from Miller this year.
He can make some really nice reads out of the pick-and-roll. His quick diagnosis of open teammates while the floor is spread is really nice. He throws leading passes to his roll man, can hit them with lobs, has the appropriate pace to freeze help defenders… there’s a lot to work with.
Ultimately, Miller isn’t an elite passer yet. He has a lot of decision-making areas to tighten up, especially when pressured. He’s more wired to score than to pass, but there’s enough balance that his shot selection isn’t a major issue.
Other skills related to passing or decision-making hamstring his playmaking ability right now. Tightening his handle will help; he’s a skinny 6’9” who can get his dribble undercut rather easily. Deceleration isn’t there for him yet (likely due to lower-body strength) and he can pick up too many offensive fouls on charges or trying to push off to create space. These are fixable through time, though they could indicate a few weak points during his first year or two in the league.
What I do love, however, is his passing ability with his non-dominant hand. Miller is one of the best at hitting teammates with one-handed snap passes, wraparounds, lobs, or baseline drifts with his left hand. The touch and natural ability with his left will help him in postseason play and if teams force him one direction or another. It’s a pretty niche skill, but its presence indicates a really high ceiling in terms of live dribble playmaking.
Outside of 12 feet, Miller is a monster. He can play off-ball or pull up from deep range. He’s got elite touch in the mid-range, live-dribble passing chops, and enough craftiness in his game to put all those traits together.
The area of concern for Brandon, especially early in the season, was with his finishing. I’ve been guilty of perpetuating the great deal of in-season improvement from Miller as a finisher this year. It’s not misinformation, per se: Miller finished the year converting on 54.3% of his finishes. During the first 10 games, he was only 42.8% at the rim, then followed that up with a stretch where he converted 70.3% of his rim attempts.
While 54.3% on the year is a solid mark, the ‘how’ behind that number still gives me concern and is a large reason why I have Miller a little bit behind the likes of Amen Thompson and Scoot Henderson. According to Synergy Sports, Miller was 33-43 (76.7%) on his transition rim attempts this year and only 33-84 (39.3%) in the half-court. Yes, 39% at the rim in the half-court, with only 3 dunks. Fewer than 14% of his overall field goal attempts were taken at the bucket — and that comes in one of the best-spaced offenses in college basketball under Nate Oats.
The in-season improvement points we’ve seen from Miller were and are real. He learned to play off two feet and gather more consistently. He varied some of his finishes and just got to his right hand more often. He took more runners. Those were band-aids to prevent his flaws from getting exposed, not fixes to the flaws themselves.
The issues that persisted at the beginning, and still persist now, are related to his athleticism and strength. He doesn’t naturally get to the bucket enough, and when he does, bigger bodies stationed between him and the rim are very disruptive.
Star players don’t just make tough shots, they generate easy shots for themselves and for others. Miller is a good passer and should be able to get some quality looks for his teammates. But easy looks for himself might be difficult to come by if his rim pressure and conversion cannot improve.
We saw what can happen if Miller has an off-shooting stretch: his production basically disappears. Over the final 8 games of his season, Miller shot 30.6% FG, 25.8% 3FG, for an overall 37.6 eFG% with a negative A:TO ratio. If the outside shot isn’t at that 40% or above mark, efficiency is really difficult for him to achieve.
It’s a legitimate concern for me, and a reason why Miller isn’t a real threat to topple Scoot Henderson at #2. He’s an excellent shooter with the potential to be elite. But if it isn’t at an incredibly high level on a nightly basis, the house of cards known as his offensive game can begin to collapse.
Defense
Sometimes, I really hate the format of my own scouting report videos. I’ve constricted myself by having only three strength areas, making it difficult to adequately sum up every positive aspect of a prospect’s game. If you were to watch the Brandon Miller scouting report video on YouTube, you’d only see defense mentioned as an improvement area, and therefore could develop the notion that Miller is a poor or below-average defender.
That would be a wrong conclusion to draw. Miller is, in my estimation, pretty impactful as an on-ball threat. He’s somewhat boxed in positionally; not quick enough at the point-of-attack to be fully switchable, and too skinny right now to offer much guarding up the lineup. He’s a 3 on defense, and that’s perfectly okay.
To offset some of the challenges from my scouting video, I decided to do a brief section on the positive defensive work done by Miller this year and the flashes of impact he can have. I also think this will be simpler than anything I could put in written form.
The concerns come in biomechanically when Miller has to face smaller guys. He’s a guy who tends to bend with his back instead of his hips/ waist, resulting in several possessions where he looks really hunched over. Reacting to dribble moves is difficult in that stance, and the result is him opening up his hips and biting on jab moves or changes of direction.
Miller isn’t a poor defender, he just has some limitations in terms of where he can be impactful.
Overall Analysis
Versatility is a buzzword in the modern NBA, and Miller’s offensive arsenal does project as being supremely versatile. He can create for himself, is too good of a self-creator and passer to take the ball out of his hands entirely, runs some pick-and-rolls with grace, and is an excellent spot-up shooter. At his size, he can play next to or with so many different types of players and help construct a really large or really small lineup.
The same versatility doesn’t really exist on defense, though. Miller’s lack of switchability means planning a roster around him includes acknowledging that he’ll need a strong rim protector behind him and to be only placed in on-ball positions that are advantageous for keeping guys out of the lane. He’s still more versatile on the whole than 90% of draft prospects, if not more. But if the idea is that Miller might be a better fit for some teams than Henderson or Amen because he’s more versatile, make sure you challenge that notion and clarify which side of the ball that versatility is directed toward.
Despite the nitpicking of his finishing around the rim, Miller is really impressive as a prospect. Few guys offer the scoring upside that he does, especially off the bounce. To me, that’s the type of impact you look for at the top of the draft.
There are some fits that will be better than others from an on-court perspective for Miller. Detroit is one that constantly comes up as being a good fit for the organization, but it would be a great fit for Miller as well. Playing off of Jaden Ivey and Cade Cunningham could minimize some of those rim pressure concerns. Charlotte next to LaMelo Ball would be great for similar reasons, and getting to play off of Damian Lillard in Portland would do wonders for him offensively.
Miller is a tremendous prospect, deserving of a top-four billing in this draft class and in others. There’s a lot of growth that needs to happen for him, in the weight room and on-court. The ceiling is quite high, though. Miller should be a really good NBA player for a long, long time.