Bryce McGowens: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report
McGowens has a lot of tools to like as a scorer, but defense and playmaking for others remains elusive
Freshmen on the fringes of the first round have difficult decisions to make. For many, the opportunity exists to return to school, bet on themselves and improve a few areas to turn into a surefire first-round or lottery selection. For others, another year in the same circumstances could bring about less positive change and a fair amount of risk.
In that sense, Bryce McGowens likely made the right decision leaving Nebraska and declaring for the 2022 NBA Draft. The Cornhuskers were bottomfeeders in the Big Ten, and have been for much of the last five years. Going back to Lincoln would see McGowens likely get accused of what he pieced together this year: empty stats on a poor team. However, a transfer provides significant risk as well. In a new college home, fewer reps hurt his raw numbers, and as a player who struggled with efficiency and has a game built on scoring prowess, he needs to show that he can be more efficient without a decrease in his volume.
McGowens remains a difficult prospect to peg. His scoring ability, size at 6’7” and general fluidity are all NBA-caliber. The draft class hasn’t shaped up yet in terms of one-and-done talent, so it’s hard to say just who is competing with him for a top-30 pick. Yet there are plenty of areas that McGowens has to improve before he’s ready for NBA minutes.
We noticed pretty early into our film review of McGowens that he is fairly right-hand dominant. He had much more success as a pull-up shooter going right. He scored and played with great burst out of the pick-and-roll when going right, but had to be much more crafty and pivot-based when going left. Even when driving to his left, McGowens has a tendency to want to finish righty, whether going across his body to reach his dominant hand or spinning back with his last step.
Right now, McGowens offensive game has plenty of holes. His pull-up jumper (only 24.4% in the half-court) is somewhat projectable in space but is based on upside more than current impact. He’s severely right-hand dominant as a driver and doesn’t have consistent deceleration traits or elite touch near the hoop. All of those combine to illustrate just how far away McGowens is from reaching his potential of being a lead scoring option in the NBA. There are avenues where he could easily score 20 per game as he covers up one or two of those flaws, and others where physical maturation never sets in and he gets overwhelmed by NBA length and size.
McGowens scored at the rim because he outran his man by playing with great burst and his full-speed rim attacks lead to free throw generation. Verticality at the NBA level will limit the fouls called on some of his reckless collisions driving to the tin. He’s got to build upon his low-usage floater game (a solid 12-25) and learn to play at different paces pretty quickly. His slow-to-fast hesitation off the bounce is already really strong. The fast-to-slow and threat he poses from outside of eight feet will dictate his on-ball reps.
None of this mentions the most necessary development for his NBA game: creation for others. Right now, McGowens has a tendency to put his head down and focus solely on getting to the rim. The statistics back this up to an astounding degree. Since 2010, only two college freshmen have played 1000 minutes, scored 16 per game, have a usage rate over 26% and an assist rate below 10%: Jabari Parker and Bryce McGowens. Others on the list to play at least 900 minutes: Cameron Thomas (LSU), Shabazz Muhammad (UCLA), Anthony Bennett and Brandon McCoy (UNLV).
Slowing down will open up passing lanes for others. Nebraska did play with great spacing this season, so it’s not like kickout lanes were never there. He defaulted to scoring a little too much, was an inaccurate passer when he tried to make wrap-arounds or passes to the roller, and even struggled with routine baseline reads that are more indicative of secondary handlers than primary ones. There’s a ton to develop in terms of feel.
With all these areas to develop, McGowens shows first-round potential simply because of how quickly he gets to the rim and how he excels at space creation. He’s a 6’7” guard who can handle and is very smooth off the bounce. That’s a tantalizing package to work with, and at only 19 years old he can be molded by an NBA team willing to make a multi-year investment in his future.
Nebraska was a fairly poor defensive unit, with less-than-ideal athletes for the Big Ten strewn across the floor and a lack of rim protection waiting behind them. McGowens did little to help matters, standing up on-ball or off-ball, playing matador defense against smaller drivers and frequently utilizing the horrible habit of trying to back-tip when he’s beat.
The NBA shows no mercy for skinny guys who don’t want to defend. The profile he projects — a high-volume scorer with really good driving ability — needs to be accompanied by playmaking, defense, shooting and efficiency in order for his role to grow.