Caleb Houstan, Trevor Keels & Dalen Terry: Draft Decisions
Inconsistent shooting has been the story of these prospects' seasons. How does that impact their draft stock at the next level?
Cue The Clash playing their hit song off their 1981 album Combat Rock. Pour a glass of a nice, full-bodied red. It’s time to talk about one of the more scintillating portions of the pre-draft process: the decisions made by young college athletes to declare for the NBA or return to school.
This Winter, we released a pseudo-guide of questions for bubble prospects to seek answers to before coming to a conclusion. Independent of that advice, there’s a genuine soul-searching process that must occur: what does the player want to do? Regardless of what may be in their best interest, an understanding that their happiness factors in — and cannot be anticipated on the outside — has to take place.
There are some names who truly wrestle with difficult decisions on late first-round spots versus rolling the dice to come back another year and strengthen their case. Those were the paths traveled by Bennedict Mathurin and Jaden Ivey just a season ago. Others — the ones we are focusing on in this series — have a bit of a lower draft stock in 2022, making it a more erratic or complex decision.
Hidden in the midst of this draft class are some talented individuals with tantalizing upside, really unrefined tools or enough promise to garner genuine second-round interest. They could forgo an additional year of college and hope that those traits are enough to land them a draft spot. Or they could opt to return, knowing that vast development and improvement is necessary to increase that draft spot.
There are several freshmen who are, to us, pretty easy decisions to declare for the draft or have already declared their intentions. Bryce McGowens of Nebraska, Josh Minott from Memphis, Blake Wesley from Notre Dame and Harrison Ingram from Stanford have all declared already. Kendall Brown and Jeremy Sochan of Baylor, Kennedy Chandler from Tennessee and Milwaukee’s Patrick Baldwin Jr. all make sense as guys who should come out this year as well.
Six other freshmen — Paolo Banchero, Jalen Duren, AJ Griffin, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith and TyTy Washington — feel entrenched in the lottery at this point. Combined, there would then be 14 freshmen to declare for the draft. We’ve written previously both about the breadth of sophomores making a push for first-round status and the trends around one-and-done drafting. The results from those two studies showed that, traditionally speaking, few freshmen go in the second round.
Combine all these together and it squeezes the field a bit for other prospects just a half-step lower than the aforementioned names on draft boards. By our mark, there are 15 key names to discuss and very few draft slots to covet. Will any make the leap and become “pre-draft” darlings by coming out before hitting their stride? Are there first-round guarantees even to be had? What should these players do, and what is unique about their specific situation?
Caleb Houstan - W, Michigan
Stats
32.0 MIN
10.1 PTS
4.0 REB
1.4 AST
1.5 TO
38.4% FG
35.5% 3FG
The Quick Scouting Report
3-and-D wing potential. Incredibly long; long arms, big hands
Smooth stroke when set. Can get into a rhythm and really stay on
Got better as shooter as season went on. Can hit movement shots or spot-up
Not a threat to score off the bounce unless he has straight-line drives
Length is big plus for him on the defensive end. Too skinny right now
Will play the 3 at the next level. Stick him in the corners & let him fire away
Our Recommendation: Test the waters, then make a decision late
Houstan is one guy we recognize we’re still higher on than most. It’s not that he doesn’t have areas to improve, it’s that his role in the NBA is somewhat projectable and the skills he’ll need most to do that are already solid. As such, we lean towards nudging Houstan into this draft class and think he should be a safe 3-and-D option in the first round.
NBA teams may not see it that way. He has a lot to add to his game to be a good defender and more than just a 3-point shooter. Whatever feedback he gets from NBA teams, and whatever he sees from the rest of the class settling as impacting available first-round spots, will ultimately dictate what he should do.
Trevor Keels - W, Duke
Stats
30.2 MIN
11.5 PTS
3.4 REB
2.7 AST
1.3 TO
1.2 STL
41.9% FG
31.2% 3FG
The Quick Scouting Report
Incredibly strong-bodied 2-guard. Physically matured beyond his years
Puts his shoulder into guys’ chest and plows them over en route to the rim
Doesn’t have a ton of shiftiness to his game. More brawn than shake
Inconsistent 3-point shooter. Form is more set than bouncy
Scouts seem to believe he’ll be a better shooter thanks to his high school production
Adequate passer. Can run some second-side PNR
Projects as a good on-ball defender at the 2. Willing to get up & pressure the ball away from the basket
Our Recommendation: Test the waters, then listen to NBA feedback
Keels is the guy in this group who definitely gets squeezed from the bottom. Next year’s class at Duke will provide very little in the way of increased touches. While Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin and Wendell Moore all likely move onto the NBA, the star-studded freshman class of Dereck Lively, Kyle Filipowski, Dariq Whitehead, Mark Mitchell and Jaden Schutt will all come in and instantly take over.
Keels may long for more consistent shooting (although cobbling together a season above 34% from deep was impressive) but he is still seen as being a plus shooter at the NBA level. Instead of going back to Duke and tarnishing that reputation, he may understand the value in going now despite not being fully ready as a creator or handler. He’s strong enough to fit in from day one physically, which some NBA teams may like. He’s truly a toss-up for us, partly due to the fact we don’t find him a really good 3-point shooter long-term. If teams truly do, he is probably going to receive some advice to come out this year. A return to school could help him as a shooter, but with low volume for the Blue Devils, there’s little chance a return to school launches him into the lottery.
Dalen Terry - W, Arizona
Stats
27.8 MIN
8.0 PTS
4.8 REB
3.9 AST
1.4 TO
1.2 STL
50.2% FG
36.4% 3FG
The Quick Scouting Report
Really good athlete at 6’7”. Long arms, elite defensive potential
Superb playmaker. AST numbers don’t do him justice. So good in open floor
Think he can be a PNR creator at next level; rare for his size
Not a scorer or attacker despite his athleticism. Doesn’t look natural
Struggles as a shooter. Got better as season went on; form still a tad hitchy
Takes amazing care for the basketball despite some violent, sharp dribble moves
Worry about him pull-up scoring at the next level, perhaps limiting on-ball reps
At very least, a great connective tissue wing who defends 1 thru 3 spots
Our Recommendation: Return to School
Terry’s playmaking ability could lead him to impact an NBA roster right away. Another season in the Arizona system, likely without Ben Mathurin to be taking away major touches on the wing, could allow him to really blossom. It’s difficult to imagine Terry cracking the first round in 2022 as a sophomore who shoots 36% from deep on low volume. His game, as mature as it already is, needs shooting to be the toolsy, do-it-all player that NBA teams will make a priority on draft night.
He played so much better down the stretch run of the season and raised his shooting percentages. That said, the volume and form of his shooting still leave a fair amount to be desired. We’d support Terry as a borderline first-rounder this year, but have a tough time seeing other NBA franchises prioritizing that after seeing who else has declared thus far.
Our Pre-Draft Potential Series
Monday: Tyrese Hunter, JD Davison & Taran Armstrong
Tuesday: Moussa Diabate, John Butler & Jaylin Williams
Wednesday: Caleb Houstan, Trevor Keels & Dalen Terry
Thursday: Peyton Watson, Jake LaRavia & Aminu Mohammed
Friday: Malaki Branham, Terquavion Smith & Max Christie
Other names to watch next season: Matthew Cleveland, Florida State; Daimion Collins, Kentucky; Alex Fudge, LSU; Jordan Hawkins, UConn; Nolan Hickman, Gonzaga; Arthur Kaluma, Creighton; Brandon Murray, LSU; Hunter Sallis, Gonzaga.