Chet Holmgren: 2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report

Chet's on-court impact is felt in more ways than any prospect in recent memory despite his polarizing, skinny frame

Sometimes the simplest answers are the correct ones.

There is nothing simple about Chet Holmgren. As a prospect and an evaluation for NBA scouts, he is one of a kind. At seven feet tall and barely 190 pounds, Holmgren’s physical dimensions are unique on their own. Combine with it the skill traits he’s shown before turning 20 years old and it’s nearly impossible to believe what you’re seeing when he’s at his best.

Holmgren is the only center in NCAA history to record 40 3-pointers on the season while also registering 3 blocks per game. That in itself, the rare combination of shot blocking and stretch shooting, is worthy of top-seven consideration. Holmgren is so much more. He’s switchable on defense and isn’t just a drop-back big. He’s the nation’s leader in field goal percentage at the rim, making 80% of his non-post-up looks in the half-court. He is an elite rebounder, with 14 games of double-digit rebounds, and the ball handling or athleticism to carry it end to end.

For some, getting past the physical frame and unique strength concerns is too much to ask. Instead of pushing back with the countless stats that show how productive he is or the dozens of highlights testifying to his transcendence, we believe the best place to illustrate Chet’s standing as a top prospect is with his competitiveness. It’s what has allowed him to dominate despite his skinny frame at the high school, AAU, and now college levels. To those who say that the lack of weight will eventually hinder him in the NBA, we saw the opposite: if it hasn’t stopped him yet, so why will it now?

Let’s leave the offense alone for a second. On defensive potential and impact alone, Chet is a generational talent. In the ways where Evan Mobley has been elite from the moment he stepped onto an NBA floor, Holmgren can have a similar impact. Play him against ball screens as the 5 and he can drop back, play angles incredibly well and protect the rim at an elite level. Play him at the 4 and the floor shrinks dramatically without giving up a mismatch for quicker, smaller drivers.

Chet had 7 games this year with five or more blocks. Per Synergy Sports, opponents shot 3-20 on PNR rolls where Chet’s man set the screen, a dominant mark and the best in the nation for those with as many attempts. He’s elite as a big man defender who can evolve into that role while starting his career as a 4 while his body takes time to fill out a bit.

Holmgren isn’t a perfect defender. He does tend to bite on a lot of pump fakes, gets pushed under the rim when guarding post-ups frequently and can be slow to recover when screened physically. All in all, he’s a major contributor on that end that changes the defensive potential of any team he’s on.

Chet does that while being a unique and skilled offensive threat. He shot 39% from 3-point range, had 40 makes and can dribble into his triples in transition. As such a long driver, skilled handler and efficient finisher, it seems strange to talk about him first and foremost as a shooter in a half-court context.

Yet we still aren’t sure what to classify Holmgren’s game as. While others have questions about his strength and durability, our concerns center around finding a reliable impact in the half-court. On a collegiate stage, he’s elite at finishing and getting to the rim, even without speed or a change-of-pace dribble. He can play in transition all the time, thrive in a hi-lo offense like the ‘Zags utilized, and crash the offensive glass for points.

NBA floors will be spaced differently. To play the 4, he needs to either be a better, quicker driver when attacking closeouts or paired with the ideal 5-man who can space or short roll. There is so much upside to what Holmgren does on that end of the floor but no neat label to put on it, nor a definitive role that we can rely on to say ‘this is how Chet scores 15-18 points per game in the NBA.’

For the final six weeks of the college season, Holmgren has been the top player on our draft board. Much of that ascent to the top spot was based on improved shooting throughout the year. As Holmgren got streaky and experienced an elongated cold spell to finish his Gonzaga career, the gap narrowed between Holmgren and the other top names in the draft, even if he finished the year at a pretty solid 39% from 3.

First 9 games: 30.4% from 3
Middle 14 games: 54% from 3
Final 9 games: 21.9% from 3