Debut Tidbits: 9 Standouts from Opening Night

The college season is underway. Which top prospects had standout performances out of the gate?

It’s finally here.

The long-awaited tip-off to the 2021-22 college basketball season has draft junkies and scouts out in full force. Tuesday and Wednesday this week offered the first opportunity to see the anticipated top names in this year’s draft class in live, meaningful action.

Feedback to early games always falls risk to two major phenomena: conclusions from small sample size and confirmation bias. The small sample size, and the first impression these guys put out, goes a long way in letting the general public overreact to what we see right out of the gate. When paired with the preconceptions we have about prospects due to their backgrounds and the narratives surrounding them, the two can be a lethal combination.

For example, if a player wasn’t a very good shooter in high school and goes 1-5 from 3-point range in their college debut, the early narrative to put out is that they haven’t improved, which might be false. To counteract such trends and try to avoid jumping to early negative conclusions, we’ll be hitting on the positives we saw on opening night. This is officially a ‘good vibes only’ publication.

We’ll take you through nine of the better debuts from this week; some one-and-done guys and some returners, some big men and some guards, some top-three hopefuls and others scrapping for first-round looks. These are the nine who stood out to us in mostly positive ways.

Paolo Banchero - F, Duke

Banchero comes into the season as a popular pick as frontrunner for the top selection in the 2022 NBA Draft. A rare combination of size (6’10” with a plus wingspan), strength (an NBA-ready body at 250 pounds) and skill, Banchero put his scoring acumen on display against Kentucky in the Champion’s Classic. No top team in the nation featured a tougher test on opening night than the Blue Devils, who went against a Kentucky team with more returning experience than they’ve featured in the last decade. Combine their experience with the size and length the Wildcats feature and this felt like an NBA type of game.

Banchero was ready. The pace didn’t seem too fast for him, especially impressive considering it’s his first game and on a massive stage in Madison Square Garden. He was poised throughout, let the moments come to him and never rushed when he caught the ball in isolation. It feels like Banchero is going to be used a ton at the elbows and mid-post areas to go one-on-one, a great combo with his trailing acumen atop the key.

If he can be this consistent and impactful scoring the ball in isolation, he’ll run away with the top pick designation before New Year’s:

Banchero was 7-8 from inside the arc, muscling guys to the rim, hitting step-back jumpers and scoring with a high degree of difficulty. He got to the free throw line a ton, a major plus for an alpha scorer. While the jumper does need a bit of work from range, all the mechanics are there to easily translate. With all the elbow touches, ball skills and physical nature to his game, he reminds a bit of how Blake Griffin played at the tail end of his Clippers tenure: still athletic enough to impact the game that way, but skilled with the ball to be utilized everywhere offensively and have the game run through him.

On defense, Banchero was a pleasant surprise. He was positionally sound, used his length well and showcased a little more lateral quickness on recoveries when he got out of position. Kentucky was a good test at the start, and Banchero passed with flying colors. He opened the season in a three-man tier atop our board, and every indication is that he’s the one guy within that tier who won’t drop from it.

Chet Holmgren - P, Gonzaga

Calling Holmgren a post almost feels like a disservice to traditional big men. Holmgren is anything but orthodox. He’s absolutely massive, and looked even longer in comparison to the players Dixie State trotted out. Testing him physically likely wasn’t going to be par for the course on opening night. What we did see are the ways in which Holmgren can overpower a smaller team and use his length to negate smaller guys. He moved well in space defensively, blocked a ludicrous seven shots and cleaned up the boards.

Two areas stood out most with Chet. First, the passing. He’s a high-processing player away from the rim, as evidenced by how he carved up Dixie State’s zone from the high post. Most of it was set-based where his reads were taught, but he still made them quickly. The open-floor handling to create for others in transition is so rare for someone his size, and he looks comfortable in that role.

The second area that stood out was how Holmgren handled contact to his core. Sure, he’ll go against stronger players in the NBA (and later this year) than he did on Tuesday, but Holmgren was able to absorb a blow to the midsection and not bow over or collapse. Instead, he kept his arms up and still swallowed up shot attempts. Pump fakes and lean-ins have little effect with such a massive wingspan and good timing. Core strength is likely the top area for Chet to keep improving for NBA action. If he can continue to handle contact the way he did Tuesday, some of the physical concerns for him might be overblown.

Tuesday was a first impression that shows the stat-sheet-stuffer mentality Holmgren brings to the table. He likely won’t be a 20 point per game scorer in any circumstance, but he doesn’t need to be. He impacts the game in a variety of ways, and demonstrated that in his collegiate debut.

Jalen Duren - P, Memphis

On the flip side of the coin, Jalen Duren is a pure post. Cut from the same cloth as a DeAndre Ayton, his motor and physical gifts will carry him to be successful. On opening night, Duren posted a 15-6-5 stat line with efficient scoring from the field. He overpowered Tennessee Tech physically and finished almost everything with a dunk.

It’s too soon to know whether he’ll be able to get those types of shots off against better competition. There is no denying that Duren plays hard and understands his role. Combine that with power and there’s a home for him in the NBA for many years to come.

Most impressive from Duren was the shot blocking. He’s not as explosive of a leaper offensively or off two feet as some other big men, but he gets up and has exquisite timing as a rim protector. Furthermore, Memphis seemed comfortable switching Duren onto really small point guards in late-clock situation. He stuffed one guy at the rim (in a call that could’ve been goaltending) and got his paws on one isolation jumper.

If Duren is switchable consistently and ties that together with his rim protection, he’s easily a top-five pick. He’s efficient offensively and plays a simple role. The sooner we embrace Duren as a defensive-first prospect (and he embraces that role), the easier it will be see how he fits in the NBA. Really impressive start from him.

JD Davison - PG, Alabama

The Crimson Tide are known for playing multiple lead guards at a time. For a freshman one-and-done prospect who came from a ball-dominant role against relatively weak high school competition, adjusting to such a system can be tough. Especially if said player is not known as a 3-point shooter.

JD Davison was exceptional in 26 minutes during his Alabama debut. He wasn’t a high-volume guy for them, but showcased what he does with the ball in his hands: go hard. He’s one of the best athletes in this draft class end-to-end, and is even more impressive in how he gets above the rim. There were two plays where he collapsed a defense in transition and was phenomenal at finding the open player. Just his pace makes him a tough matchup in college, and that’s why he’ll be successful this year even without playing against the greatest high school competition.

Most encouragingly, Davison played well without the ball. He had one nice 45-cut to the front of the rim from the weak side, and one relocation catch-and-shoot 3-pointer. Not to overreact to a one-game sample, but doing both on opening night was an impressive step for him.

We came into the season with Davison as the 18th-best prospect on our board. Feel and shooting were the two bugaboos; there’s so much natural talent and athleticism here to work with that we struggle to imagine a world where we wouldn’t spend a first-round pick on developing him. If the shooting and feel come along quicker this year than anticipated, he’s got top-ten upside.

Kennedy Chandler - PG, Tennessee

Another one-and-done prospect from the SEC, Kennedy Chandler does things a little differently than Davison. Chandler is speedy but not powerful, a great shooter but not an overwhelming athlete. The shot looked flawless on opening night, going 4-4 from deep and doing it in a variety of ways. The deep shot-making conjured up images of Darius Garland at Vanderbilt a few years ago, splashing it in from the logos. The shake he used to get open off one dribble handoff was a thing of beauty. He’ll shoot it in every way imaginable.

What Chandler knows at such a young age is how to use the threats of his shooting and speed to his advantage. Timely hesitation dribbles freeze defenders, hard first bounces in transition make helpers overcommit, changing sides of the floor in transition generate layups for himself and others.

Chandler can run a team if he has the ball in his hands as a primary creator with the same volume he commanded opening night. We want to see more pick-and-roll reps and how he handles defensive assignments; as a smaller guard, those two areas being at least passable are requirements. If he splashes from deep this frequently, he’ll easily rise up our board and into lottery discussions.

Caleb Love - PG, North Carolina

The first returner on this list, Caleb Love was outstanding against Loyola, a very good mid-major team from the Patriot League. Love struggled a ton as a freshman, like other point guards before him at North Carolina, in Roy Williams’ spacing-suffocated offense. Hubert Davis has opened things up a bit more, and Love is already looking more confident.

Two major traits to Caleb’s game on offense are his shooting and his change of pace. The shooting was off last year, and going 2-6 at the start of this season is a positive but not overwhelming sign of confidence. The bottom line is that if he wants to be a first-round pick, he’ll need to rejuvenate belief in his jumper being an elite part of his arsenal. From a form standpoint, it looked exactly where it needs to be.

That hesitation dribble was nonexistent last year, due largely to the fact that there was never space at the rim for him to drive into. If he changed speed from slow to fast, he only had a step to accelerate, and wouldn’t be naked at the rim if he did so. In multiple instances against Loyola, a more spread-out offense resulted in Love using that acceleration to his advantage:

We finally are getting to see Love in a more pro-friendly environment. Attempting ten free throws is a major plus, and his passing was solid all night. We already know he’s a bigger guard and a solid defender. If the offense looks like it did on Tuesday with a bit more consistent shooting, he’ll be a first-round pick once again in our book.

All of Love, Chandler and Davison are pretty polarizing guards who could rise because, frankly, this is a draft class without a great deal of depth at the position. One spot that does seem loaded, and is always in-demand from NBA teams, is at the wings. The next three players we look at — Caleb Houstan, Jabari Smith and Matthew Cleveland — are top-ten hopefuls who bring many different traits to the table.