Early-Season Scouting Tidbits: The Freshman Mixtape
Which prospects are catching our eye? Who is rising and falling through the first few weeks of college hoops? A quick flyover of some 2023 NBA Draft buzz for the freshman class
Every year, XXL magazine puts out a “Freshman List” of who they think are the best up-and-coming artists in the game. These heavily debated lists have predicted the rise of many hip-hop stars in past years. From their lists have been born some of the most influential mixtapes that breed future superstars like Chance the Raper (Acid Rap), Kid Cudi (A Kid Named Cudi), J-Cole (Friday Night Lights), and Mac Miller (K.I.D.S.). These were seen as their ‘coming-out parties’ in many ways, cementing these names as top threats ready to run the game.
In a way, early-season college basketball is like the freshman mixtape list for many top newcomers. While these are names we’ve heard before (particularly in draft circles), the first few games offer a real glimpse into who is legit and who isn’t quite ready to step into the spotlight. College basketball is still an old man’s game — teams that win have experience, veteran stars and battle-tested upperclassmen. But potential wins out in NBA Draft circles, making the watch for fresh faces all the more meaningful.
The start of the season isn’t always 100% accurate for the top names to eventually become one-and-done prospects, and several guys who get off to slower starts will bulldoze their way into that territory. What I do know is that we’ve now got enough game action under our belt (somewhere from three to five games per team) to notice any strong trends. Those trends serve as indicators for whether our preseason expectations around these incoming freshmen were too high, too low, or just about right.
We’ll divide our freshman chatter into four distinct sections: stock up, stock neutral, stock down, and under-discussed guys that belong on one-and-done radars. We start with the guys who are most clearly improving their draft stock, many of whom could be lauded as the next superstar.
Freshman Stock Up
Brandon Miller, Alabama - Honestly, many of the concerns we had about Miller were either overblown or have already been largely eradicated. He’s drilling shots from 3-point range with confidence, and doing it off the bounce and a little bit off movement. His pick-and-pop role is strong, he’s coming off handoffs, and we know what he can do in the mid-post. He’s defending much better than we thought, and his pick-and-roll feel as a passer is superb. He’s yet to face high-major competition, so there’s a definite chance for some growing pains as the Crimson Tide’s number one option. Averaging 20.3 PTS, 9.3 REB and 2.3 AST while going 50-52-80 is a pretty great start, though.
GG Jackson, South Carolina - Jackson is showing some real fluidity and promise as a ball handler. We had our questions about how sustainable that would be for Jackson, but his comfort on the perimeter is notable. He’s productive on defense, averaging 15.5 PTS and 8.5 REB, and hitting 35.7% of his 3.5 triples per game. He’s still turnover prone, but at his young age to be piecing together all he does in this particular role is impressive. Jackson is trending toward being a top-ten guy.
Cason Wallace, Kentucky - A mature and well-rounded offensive game perfectly accompanies a dominant perimeter defensive acumen. Wallace is everywhere, flying around for steals in passing lanes and hunting for opportunities to rip the ball away from his adversaries. He’s strong enough to switch onto bigs in emergencies and so effective at the 1 and the 2. He’s got an outstanding feel for the game and is the clear-cut best guard defender of the new crop of freshmen. We’ll likely have a hard time moving Wallace outside of the lottery unless his offense literally tanks the rest of the year.
Gradey Dick, Kansas - Despite getting picked on thoroughly by Duke in the second half, Dick has been really solid for the Jayhawks thus far. The shooting is always his signature skill, and he knows how to move without the ball in very attractive ways for NBA teams. He’s been a smart cutter and really acrobatic finisher. He’s 50% from deep (10-20) to start the year and may not need multiple years in college to prove his worth as a steady-hand 3-point specialist. He’s trending closer to the middle part of the first round right now.
Terrance Arceneaux and Jarace Walker, Houston - Both Cougars have been immediate contributors to a national title contender and had very few holes in their games. Walker is playing his normal bully-ball self, he’s been a menace on the glass and looks comfortable shooting the ball. Arceneaux was great against Oregon and is starting to really shoot the ball consistently. Both are first-round prospects that we believe will declare this year if they keep this level of production up. Walker is the one with true lottery upside, but Arceneaux would make a really dependable wing at the next level thanks to his size, athleticism and jumper.
Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State, and Jett Howard, Michigan - Two guys coming into Big Ten programs and sniping out of the gates, these unabashed scorers are forcing their way into one-and-done conversations. Sensabaugh has been a revelation for the Buckeyes, scoring as a mismatch at 6’6” and 235. He has clear three-level potential, a smooth jumper and solid athleticism. Sensabaugh is a bit of a black hole though; he absolutely has to improve his passing. Howard is more of an off-ball scorer or secondary option, but has good size and length and is a decent creator for others when he gets going downhill. Hitting 40.7% of his 3-pointers over the first four games has really helped him splash onto the scene as having a high floor for NBA production.
Malik Reneau, Indiana - An energetic lefty swing forward, Reneau is averaging 12 and 5 off the bench for the Hoosiers. His athleticism makes him pop in many ways, though Mike Woodson is already giving him a decently long leash to play to his strengths. As a result, we see Reneau handling in transition and getting touches on the block — even when playing with Trayce Jackson-Davis. He’s so quick at getting off the ground and should be a solid undersized roll man. We’re not sure what it means for his 2023 draft stock as of now, but Reneau is farther along than we anticipated. We’ll keep our eyes on him.
Freshman Stock Neutral
Keyonte George, Baylor - Baylor’s best prospect in school history got off to a really strong start against low-major competition. He drilled shots, was great with his shot selection, made great decisions as a passer and was competing on defense. This weekend in Las Vegas, the Bears took on Virginia and UCLA, two elite programs and a different caliber of athlete. George struggled against the Hoos ball pressure, though he found ways to adjust and be productive late. He couldn’t make a shot against UCLA, just having a bad shooting night. While it’s not time to move him down boards, it is worth noting that his athleticism and separation didn’t look great against that type of ball pressure. Unless he can fix that in the next four months, he may be unable to leap into our top six or seven as a result. That’ll keep him about where he opens the year as a true late-lotto guy.