Early Summer League Takeaways... or Way-Too-Quick Overreactions
Here's the best part: I'm going to make you decide which is which
Those who follow my work throughout the draft cycle know that I try my hardest to be the measured voice within the online draft space. No singular performance is worth overreacting to, and every game or piece of film/ information you get on a player is just a data point.
I also tend to think philosophically about the draft. It’s more important to understand the why behind an evaluation than to just correctly guess what a player does well or needs to improve at. Many evaluators can see if a guy needs to work on his left hand. The more nuanced scouts understand how that will handicap a player’s particular game, or how difficult (or vital) it will be to develop that in the future. To me, the best ways to understand those nuances is to tackle the overarching questions which drive the focus of the ‘why’ within the evaluation.
Summer League can be really tough in that regard. It’s so damn difficult not to overreact to what we see. While each game is a data point, it’s so hard not to be swayed by a first impression. We’re also all watching so intently on what these individuals show, hoping to either be affirmed with our pre-draft viewpoints or figure out who is going to quickly be a contributor at the NBA level. Any way you slice it, the two weeks of summer ball are ripe for overreactions.
While I couldn’t make it out to Vegas this year and get onto the blackjack table, that doesn’t mean I can’t have a little fun of my own from home. The sadistic side of me is coming out a bit, and we’re going to play a little bit of a game. I’m going to throw out some blanket statements and philosophical takeaways which are related to what we see in Summer League. I’m going to share some thoughts about each… and then you are going to have to decide if it’s an accurate takeaway, trend, or representation of what we see in July or if it is a gross overreaction to the first impressions of these young players.
There are a few rookies who… you can just tell are too good for Summer League and will make an impact in the NBA
Several rookies have put together some really strong individual performances. Victor Wembanyama, Keyonte George, Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson… there have been strong showings already from the 2023 draftees. But does their success and, borderline dominance, really mean we can tell already that they won’t be a bust?
Last year, we saw several of the top performers in Summer League go on to have great rookie seasons. SB Nation’s Ricky O’Donnell noted that Keegan Murray, Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jaden Ivey, and Bennedict Mathurin were the top producers in Vegas; four of the five went onto a great season, while Holmgren was out due to injury. His same article from 2021 showcased Jalen Green and Cade Cunningham at the top, and it was clear those two players were a step above everybody else.
Summer League competition is drastically different than the NBA regular season, though. Being ‘too good’ for Summer League and clearly being a dominant performer as a rookie does not make one immune from the traditional first-year struggles. Banchero went through shooting lulls, Ivey battled turnovers all season, Mathurin faded down the stretch, and even Keegan couldn’t always find his voice within the Kings offense.
There have been some players to get off to impressive rookie moments in Vegas before struggling to crack the rotation or produce consistently in the coming months. Jalen Johnson did so in 2021 with the Atlanta Hawks. In 2019, Jaxson Hayes and Nickiel Alexander-Walker were seen as the best crop of rookies, and Carsen Edwards impressed as well! We can be fooled, though the elite of the elite showcases in Las Vegas can be strong indicators of what type of career is to come.
You can tell if a high draft pick is going to be a bust after one or two games
Conversely, some guys who get drafted really high leave a bit of an acrid taste in your mouth upon their first impression. We definitely have seen the internet trolls out in full force with their “I told you so” takes (which are always shitty) and the overreactions to single performances seen as proof or validation.
But… is there something to the notion of seeing guys who struggle in Las Vegas predicting struggles they’ll have in the regular season?
Last year, The Athletic’s John Hollinger noted some initial struggles for Johnny Davis and Jake LaRavia, both of whom spent most of their year in the G-League. In 2019, RJ Barrett struggled out of the gates at Summer League and was really inefficient and inconsistent.
Is it an overreaction to see top picks struggle and call them a bust? Perhaps ask Trae Young, who had a woeful shooting performance his first year in Vegas. Young averaged 12.7 points on 23% shooting and 13% from deep during his first four games as a rookie in Vegas. He cleaned it up by the end of the week, showing both the importance of withholding judgment until the Summer League sample is complete and in (perhaps) not writing guys off this early.
Some of the players who struggle even turn into stars! Young, Eric Bledsoe, and Jerami Grant all are guys who actually struggled throughout Summer League. The list of those who have gone from disaster in Vegas to superstar status is incredibly thin, but it does happen…
Collectively, we as scouts tend to forget or undervalue the way some players performed before college
Let’s just let the cat out of the bag. This should be known as the Keyonte George section of the article.
George was highly touted coming out of high school and, despite a strong start at Baylor, really faltered down the stretch of the season. Part of that can be attributed to an ankle injury, or to the system at Baylor, or even to being out of shape. Perhaps it’s all three.
Either way, George appears to be in phenomenal shape and playing incredibly well thus far at Summer League. His 33 point, 10 assist performance against the Clippers was one of the best I can remember from a rookie guard in Vegas.
If there’s one thematic or philosophical takeaway from what we’re seeing with George, it’s this: perhaps we overvalue a five-month sample from college and undervalue what we see from prospects during their pre-college days.
The Peyton Watson’s, Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s, and BJ Boston’s of the world are easy cases to keep track of: their freshman seasons were disasters and their draft stock took a nosedive as a result. Others, like George, only fell a few spots or moved from the top-10 to just outside the lottery. Those players are the tough ones to contextualize.
I had my fair share of concerns with Keyonte as a primary playmaker against smart, polished defenses — and I still do. He’s wired to score, and he’s done so in Vegas. He’s also proven a lot of what I’ve said throughout the year: he’s an underrated passer when he gets into the lane. It’s aggressive defenses that really give him trouble.
Even with those concerns, Keyonte has been one of the biggest winners of Summer League and might be a strong indicator that elite high school prospects who get injured during their freshman season are worth not writing off. Others such as AJ Griffin and Jaden McDaniels have really recently shown they shouldn’t have been dropped down boards as far as they were.
Summer League is sloppy, making it hard for role players & guys who just make the right decisions to show well
If we’re being honest, Summer League is not pretty basketball. There’s a lot of poor shot selection. There are defensive lapses at times, and boneheaded passes right into the defense at others. Guys tend to over-dribble in the lane. Spot-up shooters who are open get missed.
The trained eye needs to be watching for the little things, though it feels like it’s more difficult for them to stand out amidst the chaos these games can devolve into.
Scorers and high-flying athletes can always show their mettle in Vegas. They thrive in transition, drill shots and put up the numbers that grab attention and highlights. It can be more difficult for a role player (or a guy who is dependent upon structure in order to have maximum impact) to really thrive in this setting.
If a guy goes for 8 points, only takes 7 shots, and plays really solid defense while making good extra passes, he tends to get lost in the shuffle. Summer League favors those whose game is built on scoring in a way that future decisions (two-ways, camp invites, etc.) will not always reflect.
If a player shoots it better in Vegas than he did in college, it’s fair to say that he has improved as a shooter
We’re all suckers for the positive progression story!
The narrative is just too nice to turn down of a player getting better between now and then and just chalking it up to the work they’ve put in over the last six months. That… can very well be the case! Guys do improve as shooters and often put in the work to get to that point. But is it always about improvement? Are we sure the guy didn’t just get hot at the right time? Again, the first impression often matters.
It’s the mechanics, consistency of release, and confidence that the shooter attempts them with that can swing me from ‘hot streak’ to ‘potentially legitimate’. Believe me, though: we’re going to hear a lot of fan bases talking about how their draft pick was such a steal because he shot better in Vegas than he did as a non-shooter in college.
The way guys are used in Vegas is a good indicator of how they’ll be used in the regular season with the parent club
Be very, very careful with this one. There is no blanket statement that can be made about Summer League usage — in terms of the role, the volume, or the locations/ play types that shots come from — which serves as a certainty for all players. Each situation is different, and while it can be easy to want to draw conclusions from what we’re seeing in Vegas about the organization’s vision for a player, it’s a dangerous business.
First off, someone has to become the #1 option for a team. Sometimes, it’s about getting important on-ball reps for a team. A guy like Jaden Hardy serves that role for the Mavericks because they hope he evolves into a smart on-ball creator eventually, and Las Vegas is their best live-rep training ground to raise his decision-making to NBA caliber. If he’s going to contribute for the Mavs this year, he’ll need to become a smarter and more efficient playmaker.
But Hardy is also the team’s most talented scorer — and in order to win games and see guys in winning situations, you need to evaluate how players do on a competitive team. Other spots like Brooklyn have brought in a scoring veteran like Armoni Brooks to steady the offense and let the other young players fulfill their more natural roles (Noah Clowney as a floor-spacing big, or Kennedy Chandler as a defender/ facilitator in the backcourt, for example).
What they’re doing is incredibly similar to what Toronto is doing with Gradey Dick. Gradey is arguably Toronto’s most important prospect to develop this summer, and the Raptors found a way to pair him with galaxy-brain point guard Markquis Nowell. That has simplified Gradey’s role a bit (in theory) and allowed him to focus on some improvement areas on defense. Instead of worrying that he’ll not get open looks due to the nature of their offense, the Raptors found ways to let a shooting specialist thrive. Other teams (namely Charlotte this year and Houston a summer ago) really struggled to put their elite-shooting top-5 picks in positions to succeed and get easy attempts.
Summer League can be about getting good players the opportunity to just explore what they do best. After they showcase their skills, teams can then adjust that player’s role on the NBA club to fit their development long-term. I think back to last year, when second-year pro Ziaire Williams functioned as the team’s point guard through Salt Lake City Summer League as a means of just seeing if he can ever fulfill that role. It wasn’t so much a precursor to his upcoming season as an audition for a different spot in the rotation.
The point here is that there are tons of ways to skin a cat over the summer. Each organization is going to look at the period differently, and they’ll do so based on the lens of the situation they’re currently in. So while the role might not be a great indicator of what they’ll be asked to do at the NBA level, their minutes/ opportunity could be a reliable indicator of how much they’re asked to do something.
Bonus: Second-year guys always look more confident and more impactful after a season in the G-League
I absolutely love the G-League. Without being on TV as much as college basketball, these young players in the G-League are grinding and working despite not getting any exposure. The first time the general public gets to see everybody’s physical, skill, and confidence gains is at Summer League.
These guys tend to catch the eye. They look more physically polished and built after a year in a professional strength program. They are, in general, smarter due to their experiences and growth. What happens down in the G-League is generally a positive takeaway from these weeks in Vegas. Everyone is more impressed with ‘Player X’ than the last time he was seen.
But… isn’t it supposed to be that way? Aren’t the sophomores always supposed to beat down the freshmen a bit? Their experience is what is a difference-maker, and that should (in theory) show up down at Summer League. So while I want to laud the developmental programs these franchises have in place, I wonder if the summer is actually proof of positive growth or just an opportunity to fool everybody by beating up on the new kid on the block.