Famed Upperclassmen Bigs as Draft Hopefuls
Making sense of the draft landscape for some of college basketball's top interior players
“He’s a really good college player.”
It’s a phrase that we hear a ton in the draft landscape and is, many times, a backhanded compliment. The game in the NBA is different than the collegiate one right now though, and players have to be viewed in different contexts when preparing to make the jump from one level to the next. No position is more impacted than this phenomenon than back-to-the-basket big men. Post-ups are a dying breed in the NBA, at least for big men who use that as the dominant portion of their game don’t often exist. But in college they can build successful careers by becoming dominant on the block.
Multi-year players become the faces of college hoops, the marketable holdouts in an era of one-and-done stars and frequent transfers. College fans fall in love with these guys players and hope to find them translating their success to the NBA. But which ones are more likely to find success in the league? Who is going to be drafted? What ancillary skills need to be shown or added between now and NBA play in order to ensure their careers last?
We’ll look here at six of the best, most accomplished big men in college basketball with a focus on what their pro potential looks like. Quick spoiler: it may not be the most optimistic article we write, as each player has real areas to work through to find consistent NBA impact.
Armando Bacot, North Carolina
The 6’10” senior was a dominant interior defender and rebounder last year, helping lead the Tar Heels to the NCAA Championship game. The run helped shine a spotlight on the counting stats that Bacot has produced during his time at North Carolina, where he’s likely to pass Tyler Hansbrough for the school’s rebounding record. Averaging 10.2 boards for his career (and 11 this season), Bacot is one of the best rebounders in college basketball. He’s an adequate rim protector to go with it, and he gets to the free throw line a ton. There are real aspects of his game to like in terms of pro translatability.
Most impressive, to us, is Bacot’s movement ability in space for a big man. Of all the guys on this list, Bacot seems to be the most polished as a perimeter defender. Hubert Davis has often gone to the ‘switch everything’ defense against ball screen motion or different teams (used it against Notre Dame this past weekend) and trusted Bacot to move on the perimeter.
Bacot isn’t a good enough rim protector to be a Drop coverage big in the NBA. He’s a tad undersized and doesn’t have the standing reach to compensate. Instead, Bacot will probably play at the level of the ball or be aggressive on the perimeter. We see some solid film with his lateral agility to show that he could get the job done in such a scheme.
Offensively, Bacot won’t get a ton of interior touches in the post but is a physical screener that pairs well with scoring guards. While he has more than three times as many post-up possessions as pick-and-roll reps this year at Carolina, the traits he brings as a solid screener and good catch-and-finish big show some translatability.
At his age and with really little touch as a jump shooter, an NBA team has to feel really confident in Bacot being a sturdy defender to add him to their stable or spend a draft pick on him. He’s a great rebounder and excellent in transition, but his career might come down to the defensive polish and finding a team whose scheme fits what he brings to the table. The mid-to-late 2nd round feels like the right range for Bacot to get an opportunity.
Hunter Dickinson, Michigan
A junior out of DeMatha, Hunter Dickinson has been a staple of the Michigan Wolverines attack since he came to Ann Arbor. Averaging 18.7 points and 8.2 rebounds this year, Dickinson parks his ass on the blocks and uses his sweet lefty touch to win matchups on the interior.
Offensively, Dickinson has much more in his arsenal to tap into. He’s 6-16 from 3-point range on the year, taking fewer than he did as a sophomore but showing an intriguing amount of touch. He’s a really good passer too, both in the post and off the short roll.
Dickinson’s defense isn’t that terrible, either. He’s improved his mobility, he knows how to be functional with angles, and he contests vertically on the interior. He’s really dropped his foul rate as a junior, allowing him to stay on the floor more often.
The question, though, is what his calling card will be. Is he more of an offensive piece or a defensive piece? On offense, the playmaking and shooting have to be seen in higher doses away from the rim — we know he can shoot and can pass, but is it something he does at an elite level? He’s a good finisher in the post with patience but not an explosive lob threat or a quick-twitch bucket on the roll. On defense, he’s found ways to be competent in soft hedges and dropping back, but is he a good enough rim protector for that to be how he earns his minutes?
Dickinson’s overall lack of athleticism is a glaring weakness, one that he doesn’t seem to offset with truly rare skill levels. He’s very good and productive and has turned himself into an impactful college player, but if we’re talking about finding the 60 best prospects for NBA potential, it’s hard to include Dickinson on that list unless you really believe he’s going to be an excellent 3-point shooter at the next level.
Zach Edey, Purdue
If you ask me, Edey is the most dominant big man in college basketball right now. His size at 7’4” with phenomenal touch, solid footwork, and a dependable set of counter-moves makes him impossible to guard one-on-one on the blocks. As of January 12th, Edey is averaging 1.03 PPP on post-ups, scoring 12 points per game there alone. Through 15 games, he’s commanded 70 double-teams. He’s big enough and talented enough to have that at higher levels. He’s become a competent passer.
Edey is also dominant on the offensive glass, snagging 5.3 offensive boards per game. That number is a byproduct of how often Edey is stationed near the basket. He rarely sets ball screens, though he’s statistically efficient in the action. Everything Matt Painter and the Boilermakers do is built around keeping Edey on the blocks and running offense through him.
Edey’s size and finishing may make him worth of that on the offensive end at the professional level, but there are real issues with him ever defending in space on the other end. He’s very easy to attack when on a smaller, more skilled player. He can block shots near the rim if he’s stationed there, though he isn’t quick twitch nor does he have a great deal of length.
While I’m not huge on player comparisons, Edey’s role seems to project best as the same one filled by Boban Marjanovic. With the right games or matchups, Boban can come in and be a ridiculously potent offensive piece. Consistent rotation minutes and expansive roles on playoff teams is tough to come by due to the limited mobility and lack of schematic flexibility when he’s in the game.
The question then becomes when or if a player like Edey would get drafted. We think he brings enough value as an offensive experiment to deserve a draft selection, though we feel that pick comes late in the second round. In an NBA where versatility, perimeter skill, and switchability are increasing in value, Edey finds himself the antithesis of where the game is heading.
Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana
TJD looks the part. He’s bursty and athletic, moves better than most big men, and should be an awesome lob threat as a screen-and-roll big. He’s improved certain aspects of his game over the four years he’s spent with the Hoosiers. His passing feel, especially at the elbows, has improved greatly. He can rebound-and-run with a functional enough handle. He’s found a way to become a competent interior defender, breaking the early habits he once held of trying to jump to block everything.
At 6’9”, TJD is a smaller 5 and lacks the complete perimeter offensive game to play the 4. He’s never made a 3-pointer, and despite continued offseason conversation year after year about adding a jump shot, there’s no evidence (even in the mid-range) that he’ll get there. This year, Jackson-Davis is 1-9 on jump shots, according to Synergy Sports. He must embrace being a 5, and while he’s a good athlete and solid shot blocker, there are very few 6’9” centers finding legitimate impact in the NBA.
What Jackson-Davis has begun to show this year is some intrigue as a switchable big. He’s best-served playing at the level and switching if he has to, but he’s been very functional in those moments when a switch does happen. If he can defend the perimeter and handle guarding elite NBAS guards, he can be backup 5 somewhere — especially in a pick-and-roll heavy offensive system.
There have been too many intriguing games from TJD to dismiss him as a top-60 guy who is too niche to be drafted or hasn’t developed a modern offensive skillset. He had 9 blocks against Kansas, a 12-11-10 triple-double against Nebraska, a monster 30-24-8 outing against Northwestern, and went 13-16 from the field against a good, big Xavier team. We think TJD will get drafted and be given the chance to prove his athleticism can carry him to NBA impact.
Drew Timme, Gonzaga
At this point, Timme is essentially ‘Mr. College Basketball.’ He’s been one of the most visible stars of the 21st century, been a focal point on legendarily successful teams, and plays with an unbelievable ease on offense. His footwork is pristine, touch near the rim unmatched, and he fits so perfectly in Gonzaga’s offense that he rarely has an off game. He’s scored in double-figures in 76 of his last 81 games, averaging 19-7-3 since the start of his sophomore year.
Offensively, the missing piece for Timme, who is a long 6’10”, is his consistency behind the arc. He’s been only a 25% shooter from deep over the last three seasons and he rarely takes them. But we’ll forever be intrigued by Timme’s confidence in shooting at the NBA Draft combine last year in scrimmages, where he went 4-5 from deep and looked incredibly comfortable playing out of the spots that modern stretch-5s will in the NBA.
Timme has phenomenal touch, including an elite runner from the 10-15 foot range. He’s a really good decision-maker on the short roll, too. There’s so much to work with offensively, and more to tap into if he continues to progress as a shooter.
The issues for Timme are on defense. He isn’t a shot blocker, doesn’t have a sensible pick-and-roll scheme that he fits into, and isn’t polished from a positional standpoint yet to minimize his mistakes. Timme’s fit in the NBA is very similar to that of Luka Garza, who is caught in that nebulus between G-League All-Star and unplayable in the league. Timme is dominant on offense and can translate so many of those skills to the pros. But the defensive side will likely always be an issue. He’s borderline draftable and worth a flier somewhere, but the infrastructure around him is going to be vital to getting him to find success.
Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky
The reigning Naismith Player of the Year, Oscar Tshiebwe is a fairly dominant college basketball player in his areas. He’s got a relentless motor, which has made him the best rebounder I’ve seen since Reggie Evans. Put him within 10 feet of the basket and he’ll dominate on the glass on either end; at 6’9” and 260 with great length, he’s a behemoth and nearly impossible to box out. Since joining the Wildcats, he has a 19.6% offensive rebounding rate and 32.9% defensive rebounding rate. This year in the NBA, only Steven Adams (19.7% ORB) has a higher offensive rebounding rate, while nobody is above 32% on the defensive glass. His rebounding is truly elite.
But it’s worth exploring why his numbers are that high beyond just his motor and propensity for boards. John Calipari, the coach at Kentucky, keeps him close to the rim on either end as much as possible. On defense, that has dire consequences against good teams in ways that make Tshiebwe a difficult big to keep on the floor when opponents with a pro style go against the Wildcats.
Last weekend against Alabama — the most pro-style team in the SEC — Tshiebwe struggled immensely. His issue was on the defensive end, where the spread-out scheme of the Crimson Tide caught Oscar completely unprepared with his ball screen defense. On offense, Tshiebwe’s lack of finishing touch was notable as Charles Bediako simply walled up down low and the Tide collapsed on him. He was pretty poor with his feel for kickouts, couldn’t adjust to the lack of up-and-unders that worked, and didn’t get his customary second-chance points. It was his worst game with the Wildcats by far, and this thread from Sam Vecenie breaks it down pretty succinctly.
On offense, Tshiebwe’s offensive rebounding rate is a product of the Wildcats keeping him close to the low post. They run a ton of hi-lo looks or post-ups, feeding Tshiebwe so that he can either go get his own miss or clean up after others. That style of play doesn’t happen in the modern NBA unless a player is a truly elite post scorer. Tshiebwe’s interior arsenal is very simple and based on him out-muscling his opponents. Against Alabama in that matchup last Saturday, he got stood up by another big man with verticality that could easily mirror his NBA future.
At the high school level, Oscar showed a little more open-floor handling and versatility than he has at Kentucky (or even West Virginia). Calipari is notorious for not running the most pro-friendly scheme and scouts must use their imagination when projecting Kentucky players to NBA systems. With Tshiebwe, he hasn’t shown dominant interior defense, enough polish on offense away from the basket, or any semblance of playmaking to become a competent offensive piece. The motor and energy he brings could earn him a spot in the league, but there are so many anti-modern parts of his game that the amount of places to overhaul his game might make that motor difficult to invest in.