Favorite Team & Player Fits in the 2023 NBA Draft
Fit is a two-way street. So which players and teams feel like a reasonable match made in heaven based on where they are projected?
Years ago, I wrote a piece called The Ten Commandments of NBA Draft Scouting. The goal was to take all that I’ve learned about player evaluations, recruiting at the college level, and roster-building philosophy and try to churn out some steadfast rules to live by or principles to be aware of.
One of those pillars, smacked into the middle of the piece, mentioned the idea of fit. It’s a term we hear a lot in draft circles… should teams draft for fit? Does the player fit the mental makeup of the organization? How does Player X fit alongside the pieces already on the roster?
It’s all a little jumbled. Fit is really not as large of a term as I tend to think the public sphere makes it out to be; best player available is, generally, the right strategy to deploy. But fit is also something that matters, and enables players to reach their peak because they fit with the organization they’re joining. The prospect might not be the best player available for you because of how they fit in comparison to others in a similar tier of talent.
When it came to those commandments, I classified it as “fit is a two-way street”.
Do not lose consideration of fit for the player. There are questions that exist that we cannot answer from the public sphere but are absolutely necessary: Does this person fit with our team’s current roster and core? Are they built to live and thrive in our greater community? Can we as an organization bring out their strengths, both with our on-court talent and behind-the-scenes staff?
Prospects have no control over where they end up, so teams tend to view fit only through their own lens. But in order to make sure that the fit is optimal for both sides, teams should do due diligence in making sure they have the scaffolding and mechanisms in place to allow the prospect they draft to become the best version of themselves.
Successful recruiters and evaluators understand that maximizing a player's potential comes when they are in the right environment. The number of players that make a larger impact on a second team or after their rookie contract expires is countless and is most likely due to the improper marriage resulting from the draft process.
In reference to the 2023 NBA Draft, I’m going to run through a few players and organizations who I believe are a match made in heaven. There’s some plausible, realistic possibility that the players end up on the organization they’re paired with, thanks to either expected draft range or the capital to trade up to grab the player. I’ll explain a bit about why I love the fit, and try to peel back layers to think about why the person is a good fit within the organization.
Jarace Walker & Oklahoma City Thunder
When the Oklahoma City Thunder drafted Chet Holmgren a season ago, they committed to a style of play with their frontcourt: skill, positional versatility, and valuing fit next to Chet above all. Holmgren can play the 4 or the 5 in the NBA, and the guys who bring that positional fluidity require a frontcourt partner who doesn’t tether the team to one specific style or provide an opportunity for opponents to hide their big man against.
To me, Jarace Walker is the ideal type of frontcourt partner for Holmgren. Walker’s physical stature and strength, as well as his quickness on the perimeter, makes him the perfect defensive tandem with Chet. Walker can guard up the lineup and take on the more physical bigs, allowing Holmgren to roam on the perimeter or at the very least save himself from the strenuous post-ups that teams might target him with. Conversely, if Holmgren is best guarding in ball screens on a given night, Walker can switch and be mobile on the perimeter while providing elite help-side rim protection behind him. That rim protection allows the Thunder to do so many different things with Chet against ball screens: switch, hedge, or trap.
Offensively, the fit is contingent on Walker being able to shoot the ball. The Thunder need more floor-spacing, especially with Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams slotting into the lineup on the wings. What I love most about Jarace is his connective playmaking feel, which fits really well with the rest of the roster. But he needs to be a valuable floor-spacer so that teams cannot hide their 5-man on Jarace and play Chet with more skill. If that happens, the fit argument starts to fall apart.
We also know the Thunder look for character, work ethic, length, and overall skill level. Walker seems to check all of those boxes, and his competitive zeal was on full display as a freshman at Houston. Playing for Kelvin Sampson almost guarantees an elite toughness and compete level from Jarace. His on-court skill demonstrations at the high school and AAU levels check two important boxes for the Thunder as well: he’s capable of doing more off the bounce than he showed in college, and has already proven he’s willing to sacrifice those reps or that role in order to help his team win.
Over the last few weeks, it very strongly feels like Walker is trending more toward the top seven. He doesn’t seem like a prospect who is going to be available at #12 overall, when the Oklahoma City Thunder are on the clock. But the 12th pick is also right on the outside of a ledge that I have on my draft board, and it’s the beginning of a tier where a ton of guards are likely to be some of the best players available. That could create a little too much redundancy for Oklahoma City.
Because of their future draft assets and capital, the Thunder could be in great position to trade up in 2023, slide into a top-10 range where they can target their guy, and not break the bank in order to do so. For what it’s worth, if Jarace Walker is the guy they’d target, I do think they’d need to leapfrog Indiana at 7 at the very least, and would have to make a great offer to Detroit or Orlando in order to land in the spot.
I’m not sure exactly what that offer would look like or require, but if it is palatable for Presti and the organization, it’s the right swing to make.
Sidy Cissoko & Memphis Grizzlies
For much of the last year, I’ve been fixated on this concept of how the recent draft prospects that Zach Kleiman and his front office have drafted all fit neatly within a certain statistical query:
an eFG% over 57%
D-REB and AST rates above 14%
BLK and STL rates above 2%
It’s not a hard-and-fast rule, but these are general indicators that their front office has used to sift through prospects who are well-rounded yet impactful on offense, provide defensive impact in different areas, and have high feel (evidenced by the assist rate). I’ve picked apart collegiate prospects this year to try and figure out which players or prospects most closely align with that strategy, and have landed on guys like Jalen Slawson, Justyn Mutts, Brandin Podziemski, Colby Jones, and Jalen Pickett.
How do professional prospects or guys who didn’t play college factor into the equation? Well, one of them tests out pretty well in a few key categories and fits the competitive, chip-on-your-shoulder ethos that the Grizzlies have gotten a ton of traction out of: Sidy Cissoko of the G-League Ignite.
His 2.0% STL rate and 3.2% BLK rate cleanly vault those defensive indicators, and I am a major believer that Cissoko is a great defensive prospect within this class. He would slide in and help replace the toughness mantle that Dillon Brooks carried for the team, and hopefully do so with a little more self-awareness on offense.
Cissoko’s 17.5% AST rate is a great indicator of his connective passing and ability to understand the game. Cissoko shot 36% from 3 from January 15th to March 15th, causing me to believe a lot in the trajectory of his jump shot.
Long-term, Cissoko can play the 3 or the small-ball 4 in lineups where the Grizz want to have Jaren Jackson Jr. at the 5. He’s already proven to be a smart connector next to a primary scoring point guard (Scoot Henderson) and could slide in nicely next to Ja Morant. There’s a lot that I really like about Cissoko, but I do believe his fit in Memphis is far better than advertised.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper & Sacramento Kings
Let’s one thing straight about fit: it’s more about skill sets provided to a roster in need of them than it is about roster openings at a certain position.
The Sacramento Kings are in need of defensive-minded players, guys who can blanket other scorers (especially on the wings or in the backcourt) in a way that alleviates the burden on Domantas Sabonis to be engaged as a rim protector. They also need to make sure they don’t sacrifice their elite offensive spacing in order to accomplish that goal. Robbing Peter to pay Paul could cause the team to really lose their identity which helped them become the NBA’s most enjoyable story of 2023.
Enter Olivier-Maxence Prosper, a 3-and-D wing prototype from Marquette who has steadily been climbing in the first round. I’ve long believed that teams in the 12-18 range have interest in Prosper, but the later portion of the first-round seems like a safer spot to project him going.
If Sacramento can grab him 24th, he checks several of their boxes. He is that versatile point-of-attack defender who can guard many different specialties of player. That is valuable for cross-matching next to De’Aaron Fox and Kevin Huerter in the backcourt. Prosper is highly switchable on the perimeter as well.
Where I start to love the fit is on offense, where Prosper has already proven he can play off of two really high-IQ playmakers who engage in a pick-and-roll-centric offense. It’s a poor man’s comparison, but what Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro did at Marquette this year is very similar to what Fox and Sabonis do in Sacramento: a lefty lead guard with a skilled short roll playmaker that needs as much space to operate in as possible.
Within that ball screen-heavy system, Prosper really learned how and when to cut off-ball, improved his catch-and-shoot form and trajectory greatly, and sprinted the floor in transition as an athlete to help his team get easy points. Those are all really important boxes for the Kings.
There are a lot of teams who I believe Prosper would be a great fit on: Miami, Oklahoma City, Portland, Utah, and Indiana all make a ton of sense. But Sacramento, for Prosper, gives him the easiest path to early minutes and a role he’s already pretty comfortable in. It’s a great, great fit.
Amen Thompson & Houston Rockets
For a few months, I’ve been banging my fists on the table about the ideal fit that Amen Thompson would provide for this Houston Rockets organization. The team needs to keep going down the pathway of assembling high-ceiling young talents, and the 4th pick in this year’s draft is the perfect bite at the apple for them to swing for the fences.
Thompson is such a swing, but the traits he boasts when at his best blend so well with the pieces on this Rockets roster and are exacerbated by the players they are already building around. A 6’7” playmaker, Amen has elite athleticism. The combination of he and Jalen Green in transition, or as two bursty scorers with the ball in their hands, would give Houston the most athletic backcourt in the NBA.
Moreover, Green can space the floor as a competent shooter. Jabari Smith is the ideal 4-man to have next to Amen for the shooting he combines, and Thompson’s basketball IQ could help unlock different movement sets for Jabari as well. I’d salivate thinking about end-of-clock Ghost screens between the two, where Jabari spaces out, Amen takes advantage and gets into the lane, and Green cuts off a baseline exit screen off Alperen Sengun out to the corner to help keep the lane open.
While Amen needs space to operate, the Rockets aren’t pristine there right now. There’s potential with their building blocks, though, and that’s what matters most. The rest of the role players will be tailored to the star players on this roster, and Amen can be such a guy — you draft him with that intention. If I’m Thompson’s camp, I’m not worried about steering clear of an area because they don’t have shooters at this moment. I’d be worried if their long-term core unit is one that lacks shooting (like Detroit or Orlando).
There are other areas for why Amen in Houston is preferable. The team needs that injection of ball movement from their perimeter spots. Amen can find value as a unique cutter and lob threat around Alperen Sengun. A coach like Ime Udoka, who is built to hold players accountable, can help Amen and Jalen mesh well together and almost replicate the pathway that was utilized to balance Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in Boston.
The elephant in the room here: James Harden. There are rumors flying around about his desire to come back to Houston. For the life of me, I implore their front office to stay the course and avoid committing long-term money to a guy like Harden. To avoid taking a player who fits like Amen, all for the expedition of their timeline back to the playoffs and the detriment of their long-term cohesion would feel like a futile practice in impatience.
I’m a big believer in Amen; I can understand passing on him if the shooting risk or the unproven level pre-draft is too much to stomach. But I’m all in on the natural tools, the elite playmaking feel, and the generational athlete he can become.
Other Fits
Ben Sheppard & Oklahoma City Thunder
I’ve been on the Sheppard to OKC bandwagon since late March. He’s a very Thundery player with his positional length, playmaking feel, and overall high basketball IQ. He’d help the team right away with his floor spacing; he is the most underrated deadeye shooter in the class. Sheppard is humble and checks all the character boxes that Oklahoma City has valued over the last few years. While they’ve traded away their early 2nd round pick to Denver, the fluidity in the late-first round could make a guy like Sheppard available to them.
Kobe Brown & Boston Celtics
Brown is a ready-made wing rotation player. He’s the exact replacement to Grant Williams if the Celtics decide they need to move on. Brown’s shooting helps him space the floor, but he’s a somewhat-switchable big wing who makes high-IQ and versatile decisions wherever he catches the ball. Brown is an advantage-sustainer, and the Celtics already have a lot of advantage-creators in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. I’d love to see Kobe be in Beantown next year.
Julian Strawther & Detroit Pistons
Big wings who can shoot always find homes in the modern NBA. For the Pistons, they need to continue to prioritize shooting in the role players they bring on board to flank Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. Strawther has some challenges on defense and isn’t a great finisher inside the arc, but the rim pressure and gravity of those two players on the perimeter can help generate wide open looks for Strawther. I love the idea of him in a Cam Johnson role within Monty Williams’ offense: Cam is a target for Detroit this summer, and Strawther would be a quality backup option to keep movement shooting and floor-spacing as a constant in the Motor City.
Denver Nuggets & three second-round prospects
Colin Castleton, Marcus Sasser, and Andre Jackson all scream ‘Nuggets’ to me. Castleton could be seen as a Baby Jokic in some regards, a bench big man option who doesn’t force the Nuggets to stylistically change their style when the Joker sits. Colin is nowhere near the scorer or shooter, and his playmaking isn’t quite as flashy. Still, having a competitive, older-age rookie who can make plays atop the key would be great for depth and continuity.
I also really like the veteran leaders, proven winners, and locker room guys in Andre Jackson and Marcus Sasser. Both bring drastically different skill sets to the table, but could help right away by being ready-to-contribute players who fit the ethos in that Denver locker room of doing whatever is necessary to win.