Filtering Prospects Statistically, the Grizzly Way
Filtering Prospects Statistically, the Grizzly Way
Applying the statistical queries run by the Memphis Grizzlies to the 2023 draft class to see if other college prospects jump on our radar
Statistics are super helpful in sorting through prospects. But can they accurately predict future NBA success?
I’m not sure if I buy into one formula being a surefire indicator of what type of pro a young man will be. But after stumbling onto a gem last year, we might be getting close to finding and predicting role player contributions.
Last year, good friend Bryan Kalbrosky helped unearth a filter that appears to be utilized by an NBA team. According to Kalbrosky, the Memphis Grizzlies’ three draft picks from last year (as well as three other players on their roster from prior drafts) pass the same statistical thresholds:
an eFG% over 57%
D-REB and AST rates above 14%
BLK and STL rates above 2%
Other research around the Grizzlies tried to predict which prospects they’d target, only to see those names fly off the board before Memphis could prove the theory correct. As a team that has nailed the margins of the draft and quickly built a reputable roster under general manager Zach Kleiman, they may be onto something here.
I wrote about this statistical query last summer and used it to try to predict which players would be good fits for Memphis as a result.
Now that the season is done, who actually checks those boxes and finished the year with those statistical markers?
The Full Threshold
We ran the query just the way the Grizzlies have it, and it spit out several guys who we would consider as second-round prospects:
The first three names on there are second-round or fringe prospects. Tubelis has been on our radar since before his freshman year; the skill he has as a big man was evident while playing for the Lithuanian U18 team. He tests very well analytically and has a great offensive output. I am a little worried about his overall defensive impact long-term, and he lacks the positional versatility some of the other wings on this list have.
Justyn Mutts and Jalen Slawson, however, I have very few worries about on defense. Slawson is a legitimate prospect who had a great NCAA Tournament, helping Furman upset Virginia in the first round. He’s been an impact defender for a long time, both on-ball and off-ball in covering the mistakes for others. The addition of a 3-point shot and impressive creation ability makes him a really intriguing modern big.
Mutts is another guy I’ve really liked as a Swiss Army Knife of a wing. He plays the 4 and isn’t quite as positionally versatile as Slawson on offense. But he’s really good on defense. Rogers, Adelekun, and Manon are good small college players to keep an eye on moving forward.
What I’ve also found is that players who miss that cutoff in one category by a small percentage point or two also deserve our attention. The difference between hitting 2% BLK rate or 14% AST rate can be one or two swats, one or two missed shots from teammates. So I like to dive down the rabbit hole and bend the numbers a bit to see what other prospects are included.
Criteria #1: The Non-Shot Blockers
eFG% > 57%
DRB rate > 14%
AST rate > 14%
STL rate > 2%