Freshman Check-In: Guards
Which guards are potential one-and-done candidates in 2022?
We’ve reached the time of year where freshmen are starting to separate themselves into the one-and-done category and those who might need an additional year in college. Somewhere between six and ten games into the season, we’re close to the quarter mark of the year. Initial returns on those freshmen will tell us a lot about the upcoming NBA draft class.
Thus far, two major storylines have taken hold. First, the lack of guard play apparent at the top of this draft class. All three names most mainstream outlets tout as top picks (Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith) are forwards or bigs, and other fringe names (Pat Baldwin Jr, Jalen Duren) are similarly not lead guards.
The second storyline unfolding: many freshmen prospects have been more disappointing than advertised. As draft analyst and frequent guest on the Game Theory Podcast Matt Pennie noted, there are a lot of guys we had penciled in on our draft boards who we’ve slotted to move down, but relatively few who we can move up in their place:
Such a phenomenon creates a strange “wait-and-see” approach to the decisions some of these freshmen will make. What we thought we’d do is bring a pulse check on some of the top freshmen guards/ HS graduates from the 2021 recruiting class, see where they’ve placed themselves thus far on the stay or go continuum and figure out just what will have to change to cement their place in the 2022 NBA Draft.
Note: All prospects are in alphabetical order within their categories, not in an order of our preference
Clear-Cut One-And-Dones
Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
Chandler certainly has his fans, a smaller guard with unbelievable offensive impact as the straw that stirs the drink in Knoxville. Through six games, Chandler is 10-20 from deep and has flashed incredibly deep range on his jumper. He plays with pace that is reminiscent of the players he emulates in Trae Young and Darius Garland. It’s easy to see the upside for him to become a similar type of offensive force in the NBA.
As a 6’0” lead guard, Chandler’s frame and lack of defensive presence places an immense amount of pressure on him to produce offensively. Right now, Chandler is operating at peak offensive output. He’s shooting 50% from deep (which isn’t sustainable) and finishing well at the rim. All this comes before he’s played an SEC game. The only major college competition Chandler has faced was Villanova, and it didn’t go well. Colin Gillespie beat up on Chandler, he couldn’t separate against their switches and sputtered out. He finished with six points, two assists and three turnovers on 1-9 shooting (1-7 from deep) in 25 minutes.
At this point, Chandler’s draft stock is going to be heavily dependent on how he fares against more physical competition. A good showing and he could leap into the late part of the lottery as the next Darius Garland type of prospect. Struggles against size in the SEC could push him into Sharife Cooper draft territory. Either way, it’s really hard to envision Chandler heading back to school.
Dyson Daniels, G-League Ignite
The G-League Ignite team of this year is drastically different than what we saw last year. While the inaugural version was flawed in some ways, all four of the prospects on the team (Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Isaiah Todd and Daishen Nix) all knew where their niche was on the team. The current iteration of the Ignite, with a different supporting cast and stranger mesh of young talent (Scoot Henderson, Dyson Daniels, Jaden Hardy, Michael Foster, MarJon Beauchamp), doesn’t have much positive overlap on the floor.
The major development over the last two weeks in the scouting world has been the emergence of Scoot Henderson as an all-world prospect and potential top pick in 2023. He’s better than advertised and clearly the best player on the Ignite team. What his emergence does is fundamentally alter the role of guys like Daniels and Hardy.
At 6’6”, the Australian guard Daniels will be able to play more of a combo role than a true point, and that should help him remain on the floor next to Scoot. Daniels isn’t known as a great shooter, which could be the make-or-break part of raising his draft ceiling this year. He strikes me as a very solid presence but not a home run swing.
The good news for Daniels is that he is a very competent help defender already and should impact the game positively on that end. The floor is high, the ceiling is low. We think the Ignite guys are pretty much guaranteed to go out this year, and both guards in this class (Daniels and Hardy) are individually talented enough to stay high in the minds of general managers despite suboptimal roles next to Henderson.
Jaden Hardy, G-League Ignite
Probably the most polarizing player on this list, Jaden opened the year as number one on our boards. While he may not stay there, we still believe he’s a top-three or top-four guy in this class despite the subpar start: 31.5% shooting, 25.9% 3-point shooting and a 14-16 A:TO mark.
Hardy has only played five games. Yes, those games haven’t been great. The shot doesn’t fall and he’s taking pretty ballsy shots that show a lack of elite feel. But what we know from seeing Hardy play at younger levels is that he can make some of the toughest shots in the world. That is tantalizing potential, and a tough five-game start in terms of his efficiency isn’t going to detract us from keeping our stock in him.
There are clear areas emerging that Hardy must get better at. Finishing, footwork and getting to the rim stand out on offense. While Hardy has some defensive potential, he hasn’t shown great on that end yet. We have been pleasantly surprised by Hardy’s passing ability and some of the reads he makes.
No prospect is harmed more by the emergence of Scoot Henderson, who takes away on-ball reps and drastically alters the way Hardy has to play.
TyTy Washington, Kentucky
More of a combo than a true lead guard, TyTy Washington features a fairly pro-ready body and unbelievable basketball instincts or feel. Ever since a frustrating opener against Duke, Washington has averaged 15.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and shot 52% from the field and 43.5% from deep. Those are clear-cut lottery numbers if they continue to hold up.
The thing about Washington’s game is that it’s smooth and consistent. He’s made a 3-pointer in his last five games, hasn’t taken more than 15 shots in a game and has avoided a turnover in three of his seven contests. Washington makes shots, can play on-ball or off-ball, is crafty with his physical limitations and knows how to pick his spots:
Right now, the draft class has underwhelmed other than a top seven or eight guys. Washington, by virtue of his solid play and shot-making ability, could find himself in the back half of the top ten if nobody else establishes themselves as a surefire top name. If we could see Washington improving in one area, it would be finishing at the basket and drawing contact to get to the free throw line. There’s value in being dependable, and Washington has certainly emerged as that.
Trending Towards First Round
Max Christie, Michigan State
A scoring guard with long arms and a solid 6’6” frame that can fill out, Christie has been up and down throughout the year. He’s playing heavy minutes and is one of the top threats for the Spartans, but he disappears for stretches and hasn’t drilled shots at a high rate (28.6% from 3).
Known more as a shooter than a slasher, there are impressive flashes of pull-ups and catch-and-shoot moments where Christie is perfect for the NBA. But to solidify himself as a first-rounder, he certainly needs to shoot better.
Everything about his game is pretty solid and translates. There aren’t a ton of warts or worries to how he plays, and he has some upside to launch into the later parts of the lottery. He’ll come out this year. How high he goes is all dependent on the shooting numbers and how the rest of the class bears out. Christie would be immensely benefitted by this class failing to have lottery talent establish itself.
JD Davison, Alabama
Here’s our biggest hot take of the article: JD Davison from Alabama should be a lottery prospect. We’ll write more about Davison in the future, but we’ve actually been impressed by his play at Alabama. The mechanics of the shot (despite shooting only 26.7% from 3) are a bit better than we expected. The transition play is just as advertised. And he’s a much better passer than anticipated.
Averaging 4.9 assists in 24 minutes per game as the second lead handler for the Crimson Tide is very impressive. Davison is a top-flight athlete, and in this class with fewer great guards, he’s the right type of prospect to take a stab on.
Whether Davison can be given the keys to a team and run the show as a pro lead guard remains to be seen and likely won’t be known before the draft. That won’t be his full role at Alabama and his pull-up shot-making isn’t quite there. But there’s so much raw talent to work with that, in an underwhelming class, we can see Davison making it not only into the first round but higher.
Bryce McGowens, Nebraska
Bryce McGowens has made us believers. A natural scorer with a 6’6” length, many think McGowens is more of a wing than a guard. We see it differently here; McGowens is more of a combo guard in the same way as Brandon Boston or Nickiel Alexander-Walker. He can score and really fill it up, or be a combo guard connector piece.
There are still things that he needs to improve. McGowens is only shooting 25% from 3-point range, and he struggled against the best team he’s faced thus far in Creighton. A better showcase against NC State during the ACC-Big Ten Challenge (24 points, 9 rebounds) has cooled down fears that his numbers were coming against inferior competition.
McGowens will need to shoot it better and Nebraska is going to struggle this season, which could be a negative against him. But there’s volume here, and as such potential to bulldoze his way into one-and-done territory. We think McGowens is closer to being a first-round prospect than lower at this point and is the one freshman capitalizing on the poor play of the whole class to carve out a foothold of his own.
Jean Montero, Overtime Elite
We’ll be honest here: we haven’t seen a ton of Jean Montero this year. He’s certainly a flashy prospect: deep-range shots, exquisite timing on his passes and some no-look dimes. Many think Montero is or could be the best guard in this draft outside of Jaden Ivey and Jaden Hardy.
Overtime Elite is still an operation we’re trying to figure out from a scouting perspective (we aren’t the only ones). Montero has already flashed three-level scoring ability and at 6’2” is big enough that he won’t be considered too small. More explosive athleticism and finding ways to play positive defense will make him a lottery prospect, but at this point he’s firmly in the first round.
Second Round/ On the Fence
Tyrese Hunter, Iowa State
The surprise of the 2021-22 college basketball season are the Iowa State Cyclones, off to a hot 7-0 start with wins over teams like Memphis, Xavier and Oregon State. At the crux of their success has been freshman guard Tyrese Hunter, a tenacious on-ball defender and excellent playmaker. Through those seven games, Hunter is averaging 12.1 points and 5.3 assists, as well as a remarkable 2.9 steals.
Hunter’s scoring isn’t very consistent right now, and his outside shot needs some work. But the Iowa State freshman, initially thought to be just a high-volume player on a struggling Cyclones team, has propelled himself into draft discussions based on how he’s led his team out of the gates and just how good his defense has been. Physical finishing through guys like Jalen Duren of Memphis doesn’t hurt, either.
More consistent shooting, scoring outputs and continued success through Big Twelve play will keep Hunter in the draft conversation as a one-and-done. He’s played well enough initially to enter himself into these talks, though.
Trevor Keels, Duke
Guards who are physically ready to be elite athletes in college basketball from day one always get off to hot starts. Such is the case with Trevor Keels, the 6’4” Hulk Hogan of this draft class. He overpowered Kentucky on opening night to remind everyone of his presence and that he was one of the more overlooked freshmen coming into the season.
As the year progresses, Keels must address some of the flaws in his game to give us confidence that he’s worth a first-round selection. The physical advantages he enjoys will become less overwhelming in ACC play (and in the NBA), so his skill level has to be dependable. Despite a fair amount of initial buzz, Keels is shooting only 35.9% from the field and 30.2% from 3-point range to start the year. We don’t trust his jumper, and that will be the important evaluation point. He isn’t a true point guard or creator, and lacks shift with the ball in his hands. Those bowling-ball drives won’t work with the same effectiveness next year.
Based on buzz alone, Keels seems like he’s going to declare, and a talented group of freshmen coming in behind him in Durham might force his hand a bit. To us, Keels is a second-round prospect until his shooting and finishing efficiency improves.
Should Return to School
Tamar Bates, Indiana - A scoring lefty with the Hoosiers, Bates has a clear path to minutes on a team that needs a little shooting. He’s not a live-body athlete in the way we were hoping, so it seems like Bates is destined to be a two-year player in Bloomington. Success in Mike Woodson’s pro-style offense will help scouts see easy translation to the NBA, especially next year once post-up maven Trayce Jackson-Davis is gone.
Jordan Hawkins, Connecticut - One of the better defenders in college basketball, the DeMatha product has the physical tools and intensity to play in the NBA. His offensive game needs a little work and consistency, but if he develops ball skills and evolves, he could take a Jaden Ivey-like leap to the first round in 2023.
Nolan Hickman, Gonzaga & Hunter Sallis, Gonzaga - Opportunity is everything, and the loaded Zags simply don’t have the opportunity to play everyone. Andrew Nembhard is a great option at the point and the emergence of Julian Strawther crowds the Gonzaga backcourt. Hickman and Sallis are both playing bench roles, but neither of them can consistently showcase their skills for NBA scouts in a way that gives them sure first-round promise.
Hickman was the guy we liked coming into the year and had as a top-20 prospect. We still see him as that type of player. He’s shooting an absurd 84.2% from two-point range through eight games. He’s got a chance of being draftable, but with two seniors in Nembhard and Rasir Bolton ahead of them, it’s easy to envision him declining a second-round selection in favor of coming back to Spokane. Sallis, who hasn’t made a 3-pointer yet and isn’t the same playmaker as Hickman, is much farther away but still has long-term promise.
Jalen Warley, Florida State - Warley was always going to be a long-term prospect, but Florida State’s equal opportunity system always has a way of letting some names emerge with their intrigue. He makes a lot of great passes, has shooting range and is very competitive. A stellar end to the season could change where he stands, but we expect Warley to be a multi-year guy.
Others we envision returning: Dallan Coleman, Georgia Tech; Frankie Collins, Michigan; Zion Harmon, Western Kentucky; Langston Love, Baylor; Aminu Mohammed, Georgetown; Ryan Nembhard, Creighton