Gradey Dick: 2023 NBA Draft Scouting Report
A tremendous freshman season sent the Jayhawk sharpshooter into the draft. Can his defense hold up at the NBA level to let his 3-point prowess show?
For a long while, I’ve talked about the impact of biases in the draft scouting process. The most prevalent bias seems to be first impression or anchoring bias, where we get an image of a player based on our initial takeaways and let that color our analysis from that point forward.
In the age of Synergy Sports and film clips sorted by category at our fingertips, another type of bias is starting to creep in. I’m not sure if there’s a psychological term that some fancy Ph.D has already applied to basketball scouting, so I’ll go ahead and name it myself: filtering bias.
The way we as scouts filter through the film and the swaths of information available on players is crucially important to properly analyze impact. With Synergy, it can be mighty tempting to just click the “made spot-up shots” button, look at a player’s shooting percentages next to the clips, and make a determination about their pro projection.
I think that’s a less-than-ideal formula for properly sifting through a player’s impact, but also a dangerous road that can lead players to be rather binary in terms of their projection in certain areas.
In this class, no player may be more important to watch full games on than Gradey Dick. The freshman was a revelation for the Kansas Jayhawks, especially early in the season, before Big Twelve opponents worked harder to take him away, attacked him frequently on the defensive end, and viewed Gradey as the top player for them to hone in on.
From a team standpoint, that focus worked: when Gradey scored 8 points or fewer, Kansas went 4-6. They were 24-2 when he scored 9 or more. What Dick brought to the Jayhawks was so much more valuable than the box score or the individual clips on Synergy can ever shed light on.
In some regard, even a 15-minute scouting report video that is more binary on ‘strengths’ and ‘improvement areas’ doesn’t even do full justice to the shades of gray in Gradey’s game.
It’s an oversimplification to boil him down to being just a poor defender — even if there are tons of damning moments and future challenges that lie ahead. It’s also an oversimplification to call him a great pull-up shooter just because he shot an elite 46.1% on dribble jumpers — there are real flaws that exist in his arsenal which prevent him from projecting as an off-the-dribble threat.
Gradey’s pro projection lies somewhere in the nuanced area in the middle; one that requires a dive into specific games, an understanding of impact besides the numbers, and an idea of how he’ll be helped or hindered on an NBA floor based on what he’s shown thus far.
Offense
We all know what Gradey is known for and what main trait he brings to the table: shooting. At 6’8”, Dick has pretty quick mechanics that are aided by a consistent ability to shoot without dipping the ball below his waist, or even his chest. That quickness and smooth form combo make him a threat to shoot over the top of closeouts, to catch bad passes and get into a quality shot, and be a legitimate spot-up threat.
His percentages are very strong as well: 38.4% on all catch-and-shoot looks, a modest 34.4% on spot-up catch-and-shoots, and a very nice 54% FG% in transition thanks to the accuracy he boasts as a wing-sprinting shooter.
Most mesmerizing is the speed at which he can get those shots off in transition. His feet always look prepared pre-catch, he really busts out to create separation in the open floor, and he draws extra attention in transition when teams know he’s loose. What he should create for others at the rim with his gravity sprinting to the line is difficult to quantify.
While Gradey is a great shooter when square and set, the value that a high-quality shooter brings is in the multitude of sets and designed plays that get them on the move. Shooters who come off screens can draw two defenders, create misdirections that lead to buckets for other teammates, and open up layers upon layers of offense that non-threats simply cannot.
The depth of where Dick is useful coming off screens isn’t quite as large as somebody like Jordan Hawkins; there are preferences he has in terms of direction and limitations to attacking off the bounce if he can’t get a shot off. But in the right, simple plays, Gradey is excellent.
He’s really effective when starting in the corners, coming off wide pindowns or dribble handoffs to the middle of the floor. Kansas ran a lot of action for him in these regards, especially on empty sides where Gradey could get a feel for if he was overplayed, top-locked, or could use the screen and get to the middle.
Just don’t ask Dick to do too much when coming off those handoffs or screens in terms of self-creation.
Statistically speaking, Gradey was an effective pull-up shooter. To me, his pull-up is much more translatable to side-steps and counter-moves when he’s not allowed to get a 3-pointer off. He had some struggles in getting his hips aligned and his shot off coming off second-side handoffs or ball screens where he had to take an extra bounce or two for separation. Maybe there’s an improvement that can be found here, but for a pretty pure shooter, I was surprised at how rough some of the misses were in those scenarios.
Direction matters, too. Most of those struggles came while trying to dribble and separate going to his left. Dick is mainly effective when he goes right when chased off the line. His pull-up is smoother going right (when he drives left, he’s trying to get to the rim) and he has a solid runner he can use in that mid-range area if necessary. It’s not going to do much to change his usage, but he does seem like a shooter who should start in the left corner so that he comes to his right hand more frequently.
For such a good shooter, having an effective counter-move when chased off the line is important. Some might look at the statistical impact Dick has at the rim — 58.7% finisher in the half-court — and think that he’s going to be effective curling or taking one or two bounces to the bucket. To me, he should be a player who rarely takes more than one dribble. The best mode for him is to utilize the side-step 3-pointer or one-dribble pull-up to his right hand and take a ton of jumpers.
I actually think Dick is a pretty good passer. He makes quick reads off broken plays and in transition, understands when he draws two, and is really solid on those empty-side dribble handoffs or speedy ball screens. To have a functional passer in a way that complements his scoring ability as well as it does with Dick is part of the reason I buy into him so much as a future role player. We can already see the feel and the scoring come together.
His handle might not be advanced enough to warrant true PNR reps, though the passing feel (and the size at 6’8” to see over the top of the defense) is very real. I worry about how often he leaves his feet to make a decision in the air (sorry Caitlin Cooper, not all jump passes are good), but he does have really quick instincts.
Herein lies the difference between the gravity of a guy like Gradey and of Jordan Hawkins. For the UConn star, all his extra attention is built off movement sets off-ball and the constant threat of his shot. Dick’s gravity can be used in different ways. Yes, off screens like Hawkins. But also off handoffs and ball screens in ways where Dick can make connective passes and keep the flow of an offense going, even if he isn’t the guy they’re running the play for.
As I mentioned during the introduction, there are plenty of games where Kansas struggled if Gradey Dick wasn’t able to score. One of their four victories in which he was held to 8 points or fewer came on January 10th against Oklahoma, a 79-75 win in Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Dick’s gravity was on full display in that one, a constant factor in Kansas’ set plays and with the attention the Sooners gave him despite going 1-4 from deep.
Oklahoma was pretty much committed to face-guarding Dick wherever he was on the court, trying to find him instantly in transition and not letting him get a touch in the half-court. Dick got one 3-pointer off in the first half, but was held relatively ineffective.
It wasn’t until the second half when Bill Self and the Jayhawks staff put him in positions to use his gravity to his advantage, let Dick be a secondary creator since he draws two to the ball immediately on the catch, and punish the Sooners for paying that attention to him. They had one great play coming out of the half, then quite a few options down the stretch for them to get open shots at the rim.
Shooters who are feared at all times tend to have a great impact. So many of us can hear the youth basketball coaches still in our heads, saying “what are you going to do to impact the game if the shot isn’t falling?” Gradey has many of them: solid passing, activity on the offensive glass, and an awareness of how to cut or move. Most important for him is that he’ll always be guarded like a shooter. With a smart coach and cognizant teammates, that can be a lethal weapon on its own.
Defense
The reputation is certainly out there that Gradey Dick is a poor defender. I would push back on the choice of the word ‘poor’. It’s a little over-simplified and a little bit strong.
Gradey Dick is a targeted defender. Whenever he’s on the floor, he has a giant target on his chest and is often the subject of getting hunted. There are real reasons for that. Dick doesn’t move his feet incredibly well on-ball. He struggles to get through contact fighting over the top of ball screens. While he’s 6’8” with real length, his core is still ultra skinny and light, making him an easy target to move.
Because of that, any type of player can take advantage of him. Smaller guys dribble around him with speed or can abuse him in ball screens. Bigger wings physically maul him on the interior with their drives or mismatch post him. He picks up a lot of fouls in both situations, either from being too handsy or trying to flop and take charges too frequently.
What full game footage can and does reveal is the countless ways opponents would decide to go after him. In the game against Missouri, the Tigers were relentless at putting the ball in the hands of their mismatch drivers at the elbows and trying to drive on Dick to their strong hand. Baylor’s quick guards wanted to attack him in isolation and space atop the key.
Texas was devout in finding ways to go after Dick, especially late in the game. They forced switches to expose him, took him off the bounce with their guards, had strong-bodied forwards mismatch post him. Basically, their entire offense was built around exploiting Gradey and forcing him to defend for 40 minutes.
Gradey will be successful in some situations while he’s being targeted. With his length, he can bother some guys simply by walling up. He will draw charges from guys who he beats to spots, eyeing up the opportunity to take contact square to his chest. He has quick hands for deflections on ball, and can get those wraparound deflections when a guy does get a step on him.
Dick isn’t a poor defender because he fights and does care and try on all of these possessions. He’s 6’8” and can bother enough people with his length that so long as he’s positionally sound, he’ll have a chance. But Dick is likely to be the weakest link on any floor he’s on in the NBA, and because of that, teams will seek him out a ton. Any team that drafts him has to be prepared for that to continue and trust Dick enough to play him despite that targeting.
NBA offenses are — in the postseason — patient and smart enough to find ways to put Gradey in positions where he has to guard on the ball. So long as he keeps up his energy and is smart enough to play angles, he’ll be able to suffice enough to remain on the court. His defense isn’t so bad that he’ll be unplayable, especially knowing the great team impact he provides on offense.
Weak side, Dick is not a very good charge-taker or shot-blocker, even though some highlights exist of him effectively doing both. He’s often late to some rotations and pre-determines that he’s going to go down before contact really arrives. He is a smart defender and knows his limitations while also being instinctual in passing lanes on kickouts or skips. But even with his length, he doesn’t stand out as a helpful rotation defender sliding to the rim.
The right scheme for Gradey is one that isn’t meant to switch but has some versatility to flank him. A high-value rim protector would do wonders as a security blanket, learning scram switches to get him out of the post (or automatic doubles like Kansas would do in some games) can also help. He needs to play in a system that will help him be targeted less.
Overall Analysis
There are overwhelmingly more positives than negatives for Gradey as a pro prospect. The versatility and floor-spacing he unlocks on offense has to be counteracted with a roster already built for versatility on defense. A creative coach who uses him in Ghost screens, wide pindowns, or leverage his gravity on every possession can construct an offensive juggernaut while barely letting Gradey dribble the basketball.
In essence, he is an incredibly high-value role player on one end of the floor while being smart and caring on the other end. The question is where does that bring value in the 2023 NBA Draft?
If a team believes they can successfully blanket Gradey with defensive personnel or the right scheme, the top ten is not too high for him to go. Guys with his level of simplicity as a playmaker and role awareness don’t come along every year.
In a vacuum, he’s a safer bet in the late part of the lottery/ middle of the first round. It’s not likely Gradey will ever average 25 PPG in the NBA, and far less likely he has any sort of defensive accolades coming his way. There is some risk in that regard, especially knowing all we have to judge him are one year of shooting sample at a high level of basketball.
As I mentioned earlier, there’s a reason I wanted to do Dick and Jordan Hawkins back-to-back in my scouting series. Both are, in my estimation, the best movement shooters and shooting specialists in the class. Both have concerns with how well-rounded their game is, or at least have holes that can be exploited. I feel much more comfortable with the value that Gradey brings when the entire game or scheme isn’t built around him than I do with Hawkins and much prefer his connective passing and IQ.