High-Major Prospects Deserving More Attention
High-Major Prospects Deserving More Attention
While they may not be first-rounders, there's some intrigue to these players turning into deserved pros
Some of the better current NBA players were once college prospects hiding in plain sight. They played in major conferences and got plenty of exposure, going head-to-head with big-name stars on a nightly basis. Yet they didn’t climb their way into high draft rankings and had to scratch and claw their way up the pro ranks from the bottom.
Some were second-round picks who have just consistently performed at the NBA level the same way they did in college: Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia), Jalen Brunson (Villanova), Bruce Brown (Miami), and Norman Powell (UCLA). Others were overlooked the whole way and went completely undrafted: Alex Caruso (Texas A&M), Dorian Finney-Smith (Florida), JaMychal Green (Alabama), Dean Wade (Kansas State), Royce O’Neale (Baylor), TJ McConnell (Arizona), Lamar Stevens (Penn State), Ish Smith (Wake Forest), and many more.
The point is that not all sleepers and pros to come ‘out of nowhere’ are mid-major guys hiding in lower conferences. In fact, an abnormal amount of players who make it from undrafted to consistent role players are former high-major guys. In that spirit, we’re scouring the six biggest conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac-12 and SEC) to find some under-the-radar players who could make a similar ascent in the draft next year.
Kobe Brown - F, Missouri
A 6’7”, strong forward, Brown has been so incredibly scrappy for the upstart Missouri Tigers all season. He’s led them to a 16-5 record, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 57-44-79. Those numbers are notable on their own (and should get Brown some votes for SEC Player of the year), but it’s Brown’s defensive aptitude that should get him some pre-draft workouts and even a potential showing at a draft combine.
Brown plays like a switchy 4 in the Missouri system. He has really long arms, slides his feet well and is disciplined, and guards in space. On offense, they’ll let him stretch the floor out as a spot-up threat, but he’s dangerous creating around the elbows and atop the key. Always a threat for wonky pick-and-rolls because of his handle and first step explosion, Brown is functional in the half-court as a playmaker in addition to some rebound-and-run chops.
Several aspects of Brown’s game translate well to the next level. For one, the jumper’s mechanics are quick, consistent, and pure. There’s little wasted movement, and he’s currently drilling 42.1% of his catch-and-shoot jumpers — the splits are drastic when he’s contested and when he isn’t, but he projects into being more of a fifth cog in an offense in the NBA, so the ones he takes should be the open ones. There’s a real IQ to his game, as well as a grit and toughness to compete and lead his team. Brown does so many little things that don’t show up in the box score to help his team while also being a stat-sheet stuffer.
He’s got size, length, athleticism, skill, feel, and can functionally play different roles. Those are traits we typically look for in good future pros; just because Brown is late to the draft radar and is a slightly unheralded four-year college player doesn’t mean he should be overlooked in the draft process. There’s a good chance Kobe sneaks into the top 60 for me by the end of the cycle.
Branden Carlson - P, Utah
The idea of having a stretch-5 as a “break glass in case of emergency” piece is common in the NBA. If you’re looking for one guy with that potential as an undrafted free agent this year, Utah’s Branden Carlson could be that guy. The 7’0” senior is shooting 39.2% from 3 on the season, making more than one a game. He’s efficient on the inside, blocks a decent amount of shots (2.2 per game), and can be an effective rim protector.
Carlson isn’t very athletic and would struggle if he’s ever strung out into space. He doesn’t finish above the rim and isn’t great in ball screens as a result: he’s functional enough off a short roll, but he’s much more of a pick-and-pop guy.
Carlson has had a few good games this year. He had 27 and 11 against Oregon State, 28 and 8 on 11-12 shooting against Washington State, and 27 & 9 with 5 blocks vs. UTSA. He’s also had a few rough games: 0 points in 27 minutes vs. Mississippi State, a 2-14 performance against Oregon, and a 0 assist, 6 turnover game in his other matchup with Washington State. He’s been a tad hit-or-miss to really climb into draftable range, but there’s always intrigue in adding a rim-protecting stretch-5.
Matthew Cleveland - ATH, Florida State
Coming into college, Cleveland was high on my radar as a potential one-and-done prospect. He’s super long, athletic, defends multiple spots, is a decent passer, and can handle it a bit. Everything would come down to the shooting for him, and well… it simply wasn’t there as a freshman. He was 6-34 (17.6%) from 3-point range and only 5-27 on catch-and-shoot looks.
After a slow start to his sophomore season offensively, Cleveland has picked it up of late. Since December 10th (a 12 game sample), he’s averaging 15.9 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and shooting 44.1% from 3. He’s only taking 2.8 triples a game, but the confidence is up, and the success is flowing.
Cleveland has always been confident pulling up from the elbows, and is a really smart slasher off-ball. He’s proof that shooting is a learned skill that can be improved, and that prospects cannot be given up on with early-career struggles. He’s greatly sped up his shot and while the mechanics aren’t perfect, he’s really opened up his hips and has the versatility to drill shots off the dribble, catch, and even on the move.
Still, trusting Cleveland to be a very real shooting will take more than a twelve-game sample. He projects much more as an off-ball slasher and defensive specialist than anything, but there are very real ball skills and closeout-attacking ability that would mesh well with his improved catch-and-shoot ability (42.9% on the season). Defensively, he guards 1 thru 3 and uses his length very well on-ball. We aren’t convinced Cleveland will declare this year, but he’s a really toolsy guy with size, feel, and defensive aptitude. If we can convincingly add shooting to that list, he’s worth monitoring for a second-round selection.
Jesse Edwards - P, Syracuse
Edwards has been one of our guys we’re hyperinterested in for a while. Playing in the middle of the Syracuse 2-3 zone, Edwards doesn’t have the prerequisite reps as a ball screen defender that often go into projecting big men to the next level. Instead, we are intrigued by Edwards for the tools in his arsenal to become a special rim protector. He’s averaging 2.8 blocks for the second straight year, challenges pull-up shooters with his supreme length and great timing, and has awesome ground coverage traits. His instincts as a shot blocker are really, really strong.
It’s hard to know just how much time it would take a four-year zone big man to adjust to a difficult defensive position for man-to-man defense in the league.
Offensively, Edwards is your traditional screen-and-roll big. A good finisher on the interior (career 63.7% from the field), he’s disciplined enough to do everything at the rim. He would pop next to a real scoring threat in the pick-and-roll. Edwards doesn’t seem like he’s draftable and is a little too risky based on his background to be included in the top-60 anywhere. But we’re incredibly intrigued and we want to see what he’d look like in a man-to-man scheme. He’s a big G-League potential guy to watch.
Keyontae Johnson - ATH, Kansas State
It’s been a roller-coaster of a last few years for Johnson, for better or for worse. He’s healthy and cleared to play for the Wildcats and has been a major part of their revitalization under first-year head coach Jerome Tang. Averaging 18 points, 7.7 rebounds and shooting 53% from the field, Johnson is a bruising 6’5” undersized forward who uses his strength well. He’s essentially a 4 who can play solid defense and is going to shoot in the high-30s from 3-point range (on a set shot) while playing a physical brand of basketball. There’s real value there, and it’s his offense that buoys him to success.
Johnson lives on a steady diet of jumpers and is really efficient at the hoop. He’s a really smart cutter, a heady passer, and does fight on the offensive glass.
Johnson’s lack of height is definitely able to be held against him in isolation defense, and the medical stuff is the medical stuff; it would be irresponsible speculation on our part to discuss how that may or may not impact him. He’s been really good this year, but he’s definitely not a flawless role player prospect who simply picks up where he left off as an impactful player at Florida. It’s easy to be impressed with his perseverence, though, and it seems like his former teammates at Florida and current ones at K-State hold him in high regard. That in itself bodes well for role playing potential.
Johnson is very much draftable and isn’t sneaking onto anyone’s radars. We’ve noticed a groundswell of support for him as a top-40 player online, and that may be a tad much at this point. His body type looks great in a lab, though a few more inches would really help Keyontae lock himself in as a versatile mismatch wing/ forward.
Emanuel Miller - W, TCU
A hard-working defender, Miller flies around on defense and is a huge reason why TCU lives in transition so much (1.1 steals, 0.8 blocks). He’s really athletic and guards multiple positions, a shortcut to relevance in scout’s eyes and the piece that can help him stick despite some offensive hurdles.
A long and lean 6’7”, Miller transferred to TCU from Texas A&M as a complete non-shooter: he was 3-27 from deep in two years with the Aggies. After an uninspiring first year from deep with the Horned Frogs, Miller has found a 3-point stroke, going 14-28 (yes, very limited sample) this year.
While we aren’t sure if the shot is translatable, the defense certainly is. His hands are literally always up, and he can guard different spots on the wings or backcourt effectively.
Miller’s offensive profile could make him a tad too risky to become a draftee, where there’s less risk associated with a UDFA and Summer League flier. Miller’s pedigree, work ethic, and toughness on defense definitely makes him a guy we wouldn’t want to be against if that’s his path.
Jalen Pickett - PG, Penn State
From a pure production standpoint, few people can match Jalen Pickett. The former Siena transfer is averaging 17-8-7 this year. Nobody else in the NCAA is averaging 17 points and 7 assists, let alone throwing eight boards in there for a guard. Pickett has great positional size (strong 6’4”), is a killer in the mid-range, finishes effectively on the inside, and really knows how to play. He’s cerebral in ball screens but isn’t reliant on them to create his offense.
Combine that with his power-based style and Pickett is supremely effective on offense. He’s not a great athlete (almost every finish is below the rim) and gets picked apart on defense at the point of attack, but he can take smaller guards in the post and plays with a real patience and control. Everything he does is slower and balanced.
Pickett may not be a hidden gem for much longer. He first caught our eye while at Siena, and a down year last year with the Nittany Lions gave us a few questions about whether the lack of real athleticism simply hindered him against Big Ten competition (and therefore would be a major obstacle in the NBA). But Pickett has picked it up this year, and he’s led Penn State to the cusp of the NCAA Tournament (currently 13-7) for the first time since 2011 — their only tourney appearnce in the last 20 years. Penn State is a tough place to have success, so if Pickett can lead them to national relevance, he definitely belongs on draft radars. The lack of speed and athleticism is glaring, though if he can show elite control and consistency scoring on so many levels, he’ll have real NBA appeal.
Other names to watch: Souley Boum, Xavier; Harrison Ingram, Stanford; Tyler Kolek, Marquette; Matthew Murrell, Ole Miss; Justyn Mutts, Virginia Tech; Cliff Omoruyi, Rutgers; Grant Sherfield, Oklahoma; KJ Simpson, Colorado; Cam Spencer, Rutgers